Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

KERSPLAT!

Molly tonight and Andy tomorrow if he's not already gone and I think he will be

Triceratops Ballet

slightly ot, is lynch 9 or 10 tonight?

crosstownk

dottie_lottie wrote: »

slightly ot, is lynch 9 or 10 tonight?

10 according to the OP.

The way I see it, we haven't debated long enough about anyone else so the chances of killing a villager would be greater.

Andy has said he is the priest and has trained an apprentice. If true, we still have a priest so no biggie if we kill Andy.

Sorry Andy.

dottie_lottie

dottie_lottie wrote: »

slightly ot, is lynch 9 or 10 tonight?

crosstownk wrote: »

10 according to the OP.

Ah crap I wont be up for thatI was struggling for 9

andy125

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

The way I see it, we haven't debated long enough about anyone else so the chances of killing a villager would be greater.

Andy has said he is the priest and has trained an apprentice. If true, we still have a priest so no biggie if we kill Andy.

Sorry Andy.

I fully understand and accept that

y0ssar1an22

andy125 wrote: »

I fully understand and accept that

any last words andy?

Nopeare

I've gone for Barney, it's a good player I'd of gone for as an alpha that is flying under the radar.

I don't think all the bad teams can risk that claim of priest.

andy125

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

any last words andy?

Watch for the people who had no doubts in their mind i was a wolf, there you will find a wolf amongst the crowd

Best of luck and lets bring it home

crosstownk

Nopeare wrote: »

I don't think all the bad teams can risk that claim of priest.

The priest is of some use to a bad team - at least until one is wiped out.

Maximus Alexander

Cross talking a whole lot of sense all through this thread. Hope you're actually on our side or you'll be dangerous!

crosstownk

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Cross talking a whole lot of sense all through this thread. Hope you're actually on our side or you'll be dangerous!

Are you trying to say that I've been talking rubbish in previous threads?

y0ssar1an22

all quite on the western front

Barney92

I've gone with Andy, as I don't believe the priest claim. It's a strange move to come out this early. I'm not sure it was a definite thing he was getting lynched or shot. Probably would've gone for molly up until I saw that, but the claim and my belief that any alpha would choose him are why I'm picking him.

Pawwed Rig

Where do we vote?

KERSPLAT!

I've voted Molly. Have to head out and not sure if I'll be back before 10.

Gave my reasons earlier, very very defensive for what seemed like a joke accusation... I've nothing else to go on so that's that. I'll look to Andy tomorrow night... but I think he'll be gone in the morning

KERSPLAT!

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Where do we vote?

Lynch form in your welcome pm

crosstownk

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

Lynch form in your welcome pm

Also in the OP for convenience.

Guffy

crosstownk wrote: »

Also in the OP for convenience.

The one in op comes up file does not exist, for me anyways

MrsFlushdraw

Sorry folks, just in the door from the ole ballet and loads to do. Just skimmed the thread. Did a vote for nopeare as they on my list.

Will read properly tomorrow.

I will rarely be up for the lynch as its past my bedtime! I am usually in bed for 10.30 my time at the latest.

Mollyb60

Not sure if we're supposed to be giving our reasons before or after the lynch but I'm just gonna put it out there in case I actually do get lynched or munched tonight.
I'm voting for Andy mostly for self preservation reasons but also because the Priest claim is pretty weird this early. I don't think I really noticed where it was mentioned about shooting him earlier on so his claims for priest just seem like a desperate move. I'm not 100% sure on the Tigger as a wolf thing, I did think he was a bit quieter than usual but I think I'd have a hard time ever figuring out what Tigger is.
I see 3 options here:
1. Tigger was a wolf, Andy is a wolf, Andy needs to die.
2. Tigger was a wolf, Andy is the priest, Andy should live but has trained an apprentice so it won't be the end of the world if he does die (sorry Andy)
3. Tigger was a villager, Andy is a wolf, Andy needs to die.

Although Tritium's completely unfounded targeting of me is either really stupid play or he was trying to sound me out or really wolfey play to keep the village busy for the day. I can't decide. But for now, Andy is the more likely wolf so I'm going with him. If I survive the night either way I'll be doing well. Although ye'll probably just lynch me tomorrow anyway.

Jayop

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfCT--ZiMJ7PGD0oTRveWdrf0WfENPzRn6qiN087bLFL1sjCQ/viewform#responses

Uriel.

Does anyone else find gufc's staunch defence of Andy a little off?

Just looking back through his posts and his put forward quickbeam as his lynch vote. Is that not a really odd choice all things considered? Andy, molly and maybe even yosser would have been the front runners to me, that vote just seems way out of left field.. A wolf trying to hide from the consensus votes..?

quickbeam

^^ I sure thought so

y0ssar1an22

Uriel. wrote: »

Does anyone else find gufc's staunch defence of Andy a little off?

Just looking back through his posts and his put forward quickbeam as his lynch vote. Is that not a really odd choice all things considered? Andy, molly and maybe even yosser would have been the front runners to me, that vote just seems way out of left field.. A wolf trying to hide from the consensus votes..?

quick question , cos i'm not following. i was supporting andy as much as gufc. why you pick him out?

Uriel.

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

quick question , cos i'm not following. i was supporting andy as much as gufc. why you pick him out?

Gufc stood out more to me cos of his vote without anything being offered. It seems odd. Of course I'm more than happy to add you to the suspicion list

cdaly_

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

1. very long odds based n the fact that you start with a 1/23 shot of him being picked by an alpha.
1/23 * 2/4 * 7/17 = .89%/.0089 i think? this is probably wrong

Pretty sure this is wrong. Assume an alpha randomly picks a player, chance of being picked and subsequently being a villager:
Picked: 4/23
Not Chosen: 1/2
Assigned villager role: 15/22
4/23 * 1/2 * 15/22 = 0.059

Chance of not being picked and just ending up being a villager: 19/23 * 15/22 = 0.56

So, 10 times as likely to be not picked and end up as a villager as to be picked and still end up as a villager.

OTOH, if we assume Andy is always picked by 1 alpha, odds of ending up a villager:
1/2 * 15/22 = 0.34

y0ssar1an22

Uriel. wrote: »

Gufc stood out more to me cos of his vote without anything being offered. It seems odd. Of course I'm more than happy to add you to the suspicion list

no, i was just curious. no need to be adding me to any list. you could add me to your good list?

hey uriel, can we be friends?

Shíte have I missed the lynch or what are we at?

crosstownk

Deleted User wrote: »

Shíte have I missed the lynch or what are we at?

No.

Lynch is at 10. Plenty of time to vote yet.