Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

Uriel.

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

no, i was just curious. no need to be adding me to any list. you could add me to your good list?

hey uriel, can we be friends?

Best friends?

ShatterProof

cdaly_ wrote: »

Pretty sure this is wrong. Assume an alpha randomly picks a player, chance of being picked and subsequently being a villager:
Picked: 4/23
Not Chosen: 1/2
Assigned villager role: 15/22
4/23 * 1/2 * 15/22 = 0.059

Chance of not being picked and just ending up being a villager: 19/23 * 15/22 = 0.56

So, 10 times as likely to be not picked and end up as a villager as to be picked and still end up as a villager.

OTOH, if we assume Andy is always picked by 1 alpha, odds of ending up a villager:
1/2 * 15/22 = 0.34

being picked and not chosen are independent of been assigned a village role.
He would have been thrown back into the pool of the non wws and got the same same chance as everybody else of being assigned a role

y0ssar1an22

exciting. nearly 10pm. who will be lynched?

KERSPLAT!

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

exciting. nearly 10pm. who will be lynched?

... you! :eek:

y0ssar1an22

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

... you! :eek:

Jayop

End of Turn 1 - Start of Turn 2.

Andy - 10 - Strawberry Milkshake, Quickbeam, Max, Dottie, A Neurotic, Micksjaguar, Barney, Persepoly, crosstownk, Molly
Molly - 4 - Tritium, The Valeyard, Kersplat, Yosser,
Barney - 2 - Shatterproof, Nopeare,
Quickbeam - 1 - GUFC,
Yosser - 1 - Pawwed Rig
Nopeare - 1 - MrsFD
GUFC - 1 - Uriel, Cdaly,
Micksjaguar - 1 - Andy
Did not vote - 2 - Partyjungle, The Dazzler


Andy was lynched.

The_Valeyard

nooooo goose nooooo


I mean Andy

crosstownk

Three didn't vote. I'm surprised at Molly not voting considering she was under a bit of threat earlier.

y0ssar1an22

crosstownk wrote: »

Three didn't vote. I'm surprised at Molly not voting considering she was under a bit of threat earlier.

she knew her team of cubs would vote andy so no nned for her to vote

KERSPLAT!

I believe we have our wolves... Strawberry Milkshake, Quickbeam, Max, Dottie, A Neurotic, Micksjaguar, Barney, Persepoly, crosstownk

:P

Jayop

crosstownk wrote: »

Three didn't vote. I'm surprised at Molly not voting considering she was under a bit of threat earlier.

SORRY MOLLY DID VOTE, I MADE A MISTAKE. FIXED NOW.

crosstownk

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

I believe we have our wolves... Strawberry Milkshake, Quickbeam, Max, Dottie, A Neurotic, Micksjaguar, Barney, Persepoly, crosstownk

:P

Game over so :pac:

Guffy

crosstownk wrote: »

Three didn't vote. I'm surprised at Molly not voting considering she was under a bit of threat earlier.

She voted for andy, no?

y0ssar1an22

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

I believe we have our wolves... Strawberry Milkshake, Quickbeam, Max, Dottie, A Neurotic, Micksjaguar, Barney, Persepoly, crosstownk

:P

out of the 10 who voted andy i would certainly say there's a few wolves hiding amoungst them

crosstownk

crosstownk wrote: »

Three didn't vote. I'm surprised at Molly not voting considering she was under a bit of threat earlier.

Please ignore

Mollyb60

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

she knew her team of cubs would vote andy so no nned for her to vote

Uhhh excuse me? I did vote. I voted for Andy like I said.

KERSPLAT!

I'm a definite for Molly again. Started off very defensive and once pulled up on it posted very little...

#SorryMollynotsorry

ShatterProof

when does the priest find out that andy was a wolf ?

y0ssar1an22

Mollyb60 wrote: »

Uhhh excuse me? I did vote. I voted for Andy like I said.

my bad mrs wolf. please dont take any notice of me. please dont eat me

crosstownk

ShatterProof wrote: »

when does the priest find out that andy was a wolf ?

The priest probably knows already.

Triceratops Ballet

ShatterProof wrote:

when does the priest find out that andy was a wolf ?

I assume he gets told straight away

Mollyb60

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

I'm a definite for Molly again. Started off very defensive and once pulled up on it posted very little...

#SorryMollynotsorry

I have defended myself as much as I was able today.
I'm moving office at the end of the week so we're in overdrive packing up all our crap. I'm in work till 7 possibly every day this week and have less time at my desk during the day for posting. If you would like to verify that you can check the Belfast City Council webpage where I'm sure that it's noted - huh, I just checked and apparently it's not. Even the council are against me ffs. :rolleyes:

Guffy

gufc21 wrote: »

Ok... i have been trying to keep track of developments for the last couple of hours. I'm at work (snuck to toilet) during stock take so not to available for a while.


My initial thoughts today were to leave andy fo the wolves to munch. Quickbeam's comments on being suspicious of anyone who didn't vote andy or tried to suggest someone else smacked of vote manipulation to me and really had him at the forefront for wolf candidate.

The way i saw it,
1) he's a wolf on the other team trying to get 2 munches

2) a wolf on the same team trying to get villager points by being at the fore of the andy lynch.


My thoughts on it. Andy is a good player and can talk to the backroom. I agree he is 90% a wolf after his priest claim, mainly because there is history here and it's to early to pick an apprentice. But he us a good player and a danger to the other teams. He will be eaten in spite of QB saying he won't. Remember while he is alive he can talk in the backroom. Let the other teams take him out, it makes no sense for them to let him live.

I will be voting QB tonight as of now, will give the thread a proper read on my lunch but unless i see something to change my mind there... QB is a wolf

Uriel. My reason for voting QB.

Also i don't think i defended andy as a wolf, infact i said im pretty sure he was one. I just thought we should try a different strategy. I dont think we got anything from lynching andy, especially when the other parties also have to kill him.

ShatterProof

i wasn't expecting anybody to answer , everybody knows andy was the priest

ShatterProof

Mollyb60 wrote: »

I have defended myself as much as I was able today.
I'm moving office at the end of the week so we're in overdrive packing up all our crap. I'm in work till 7 possibly every day this week and have less time at my desk during the day for posting. If you would like to verify that you can check the Belfast City Council webpage where I'm sure that it's noted - huh, I just checked and apparently it's not. Even the council are against me ffs. :rolleyes:

is this the start of brexit ???

KERSPLAT!

Mollyb60 wrote: »

I have defended myself as much as I was able today.
I'm moving office at the end of the week so we're in overdrive packing up all our crap. I'm in work till 7 possibly every day this week and have less time at my desk during the day for posting. If you would like to verify that you can check the Belfast City Council webpage where I'm sure that it's noted - huh, I just checked and apparently it's not. Even the council are against me ffs. :rolleyes:

I knew it!!! You can't hide from me! Master wolf hunter/villager

y0ssar1an22

i think most know my reasons for voting molly. i can elaborate if you like.

pawned rig...your reasons for voting me?

Mollyb60

ShatterProof wrote: »

is this the start of brexit ???

Haha no. We just got a shiny new office built for us that we get to move to so we can all be together in one building. Well.........3 buildings. But all close together. Like a proper family.

ShatterProof

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

I knew it!!! You can't hide from me! Master wolf hunter/villager

feck it , there's proof if i saw it

y0ssar1an22

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

I knew it!!! You can't hide from me! Master wolf hunter/villager

interesting