Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

Maximus Alexander

Deleted User wrote: »

Vale has 23 posts but not one relating to the game as such, no alpha picks, no suspects, lots of filler really

Cross next on the list of apha picks, playing a low key game and picked by Trigger and Yoss who are both dead

I'd go with you on Vale all right but I wouldn't put much stock in Tigger picking Cross if Tig was a wolf. I'd probably be most comfortable putting forward Nopeare, Molly and Vale myself. I'd stick Barney in because he's high up the list too but he hasn't done anything else suspect I can see.

quickbeam

Fair point, and good catch on Vale.

I'm not convinced by Cross though. Are we meant to just keep going down the list of Alpha picks? That'd be pretty convenient for you (and me!) with only two picks. Cross was only picked by 5 people, so a bit of a jump down from the one above.

How about we have a three way race between Molly, Barney and Valeyard?

Cool fair enough I think I have some bias towards Cross from game 1 or 2? when he went under the radar the whoe game. He has actually posted more then I thought now Ive looked.

OK Barney, Vale and Molly is good for me

Maximus Alexander

Yeah I could get on board with that if other people are up for it.

Uriel.

quickbeam wrote: »

Fair point, and good catch on Vale.

I'm not convinced by Cross though. Are we meant to just keep going down the list of Alpha picks? That'd be pretty convenient for you (and me!) with only two picks. Cross was only picked by 5 people, so a bit of a jump down from the one above.

How about we have a three way race between Molly, Barney and Valeyard?

That might be the way to go. I think Nopeare stands out a bit, more than barney to me, though I know barney was on people's would be alpha pick lists a lot.

At the moment, I am probably at the following % wolf suspicions:
30% - GUFC
60% - Nopeare
60% - Vale
50% - Molly
30% - Barney

I think I will concentrate my investigations on those posters throughout the day and see if I can find something more concrete to swing it one direction or another.

Maximus Alexander

Now I really need to do some bloody work. This thread keeps doing this to me:

crosstownk

The way I see it is that we can approach it from two ways:

1. Andy was bullsh1tting and we made the right decision and are now one wolf less.

Or we could completely flip and take

2. Andy was telling truth and we are now down the Priest and also less on Alpha wolf.

I'm happy enough for now that Andy was bullsh1tting as he knew he was gone and was just causing confusion.

Quite a few people (me, QB, Dottie stand out) challenged Andy on his motives for coming out as the priest. This may have irked that particular wolf team. Maybe they were role hunting in munching Dottie or maybe they just picked one of those that were calling Andy out as wolf. Then again, maybe they had completely different motives.

I can see why Yosser's post may have made look like he was hiding a role so maybe that's why he was targeted - if that is the case then lets hope it was a wolf role.

I see quite few names getting thrown in the air for tonights lynch.

Molly - I'm not convinced she's wolfy although as QB said, some of the theories do have merit.
Barney - he hasn't said much (similar to last game in a way) and maybe as Nopeare siad, he could be flying under the radar. But it's not convincing enough for me just yet and smacks of simply targeting a low poster.
Nopeare - The theory put forward does have merit. I get that he did suggest that Andy be shot but he also suggested not lynching a wolf. If he was so convinced that Andy was a wolf, why rely on others to eliminate him? Surely better to be sure and lynch him.

It's early in the day yet and I won't be casting my vote until closer to the time but for now I'm leaning towards voting for Nopeare. I could easily have a different view by the time the lynch comes around.

Mollyb60

Right guys here's where I stand, I have no idea what to say to anyone to defend myself only that I'm not a wolf and I have to trust that people will see that I'm not playing like a wolf this game. I have no idea why an alpha would ever pick me to be on their team.
I don't really have a ton of time to devote to the game this week (annoyingly) but I'm gonna have a check back through the posts to see if I can round up a suspect list for possible wolves. It will be later on before I'm back on the thread at all though.

Yossar and Dottie gone. The clue may be in their interactions with some. Andy was a wolf it seems so that's a win for us villagers. I don't think Molly is a wolf. I sometimes wonder about posters who come across as being a bit cold or aloof in their style. Raw Pig for example.
It's probably nothing but a potential strategy for an evil.

Dottie was taken because she was a suspected role I bet. What it that was the case and we've lost an important player, the seer for example.

Nopeare

Just another thought and I know I'm jumping about with my ideas and this one would make me suspect as I haven't posted a lot.

But there could of been a plan by the wolf team that got the first munch on tigger not to post too much day one, as it would give him very little read on them for him to give his suspects. Then later give their excuses as to why they weren't posting?

crosstownk

Nopeare wrote: »

But there could of been a plan by the wolf team that got the first munch on tigger not to post too much day one, as it would give him very little read on them for him to give his suspects. Then later give their excuses as to why they weren't posting?

That would have been a pretty good plan alright.

tritium

quickbeam wrote: »

Fair point, and good catch on Vale.

I'm not convinced by Cross though. Are we meant to just keep going down the list of Alpha picks? That'd be pretty convenient for you (and me!) with only two picks. Cross was only picked by 5 people, so a bit of a jump down from the one above.

How about we have a three way race between Molly, Barney and Valeyard?

Im comfortable with a race on these three. Still need to do a reread on yesterdays posts by Andy to try to figure out whats going on there. Very strange timings and if andy was for the village he played it really badly- which given andy is a very good player seems unlikely.

crosstownk

Deleted User wrote: »

Vale has 23 posts but not one relating to the game as such, no alpha picks, no suspects, lots of filler really

I've had a quick look back also. It's all filler - nothing else.

tritium

crosstownk wrote: »

I've had a quick look back also. It's all filler - nothing else.

Wow, thats some world class filler alright. A big pile of nothing.

Maximus Alexander

I was going to say nobody would pick Vale, but then I remembered that half the wolves are random and there's also Hans to watch out for.

tritium

tritium wrote: »

Wow, thats some world class filler alright. A big pile of nothing.

Do you still like Molly for alpha?

Nopeare

Nopeare wrote: »

Just another thought and I know I'm jumping about with my ideas and this one would make me suspect as I haven't posted a lot.

But there could of been a plan by the wolf team that got the first munch on tigger not to post too much day one, as it would give him very little read on them for him to give his suspects. Then later give their excuses as to why they weren't posting?

how low would you go?

Maximus Alexander

Deleted User wrote: »

how low would you go?

Maybe the second lowest quarter? Third quarter is a better way of putting that :pac: The thought crossed my mind earlier but I'm generally reluctant to go after people based on post count because, as I've said in previous games, village roles also hide there.

tritium

Just a thought. Assume andy was a wolf. He told us watch people who railroaded him. Assume he was lying there. Yoss was very indifferent on andy. Was yoss a wolf also?

If there is a reasonable chance of taking out an Alpha as in Molly we should probably go for that option as it would break communication between wolves, so they wouldnt be able to plan seperate kills

Maximus Alexander

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Maybe the second lowest quarter? Third quarter is a better way of putting that :pac: The thought crossed my mind earlier but I'm generally reluctant to go after people based on post count because, as I've said in previous games, village roles also hide there.

MicksJaguar 125
quickbeam 51
Maximus Alexander 49
Uriel. 46
crosstownk 44
gufc21 36
ShatterProof 29
tritium 27
KERSPLAT! 27
The_Valeyard 23
Mollyb60 20
Nopeare 19
Pawwed Rig 16
partyjungle 15
Strawberry Milkshake 10
MrsFlushdraw 10
Persepoly 8
A Neurotic 6
cdaly_ 5
Barney92 4
The_Dazzler 2


?

Maximus Alexander

Interesting list Mick and you could probably drop Vale down there too since his posts are just padding. But seriously, this is a dangerous road to go down imo.

quickbeam

If I understood Nopeare's theory right, it's postcount up until Tigger was munched, rather than current postcount - ie quiet, under the radar while Tigger was around, and then louder after that. I'm not sure how to get that postcount, except manually though.

MrsFlushdraw

I think the days of the wolves hiding in lowish posts are gone due to the fact they know every game we search there. I would think the noisier posters are more suspect as you don't expect them to be so vocal.

quickbeam

^^ A feckit, I'm not busy at work, I'll do a manual check

KERSPLAT!

Most of my posts are crap so I don't understand the logic of picking out a certain section?

Maximus Alexander

Oh duhhh. You're right I completely misread that.

Maximus Alexander

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

Most of my posts are crap so I don't understand the logic of picking out a certain section?

Feel free to suggest another approach. We're trying here.

quickbeam

quickbeam wrote: »

If I understood Nopeare's theory right, it's postcount up until Tigger was munched, rather than current postcount - ie quiet, under the radar while Tigger was around, and then louder after that. I'm not sure how to get that postcount, except manually though.

Ive a few lists from yesterday didnt cdaly, dazzler and shatter have no posts untill after he died?

Dazzler has been fairly consistant in low posting mind bar game 1