Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

crosstownk

The low poster thing has been done many times before and has usually failed miserable. Yes, there is a high enough chance that a wolf or two maybe lurking among the low posters but I'd wager that there are more villagers in that group than wolves.

Low(ish) posters and the content of those posts might be worth consideration.

But do remember that there could easily be a roled villager or hiding in the low posters to avoid be too vocal and getting munched.

tl;dr - I've no idea really.

quickbeam

Up to post 231, the last one before Jay announced Tig's demise:

Tigger 55
MicksJaguar 42
The_Valeyard 19
Maximus Alexander 14
Uriel. 13
Tritium 13
Crosstownk 12
y0ssar1an22 11
dottie_lottie 11
Quickbeam 8
Andy125 7
gufc21 5
Mollyb60 3
MrsFlushdraw 3
Pawwed Rig 3
A Neurotic 3
KERSPLAT! 2
Nopeare 1
Persepoly 1
Partyjungle 1
Barney92 1
cdaly_ 0
The Dazzler 0
Shatterproof 0
Strawberry Milkshake 0

Maximus Alexander

If you'd to pick three or four to race tonight Cross who would you go with?

crosstownk

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

If you'd to pick three or four to race tonight Cross who would you go with?

I'll just quote myself from earlier rather typing most of it again...

crosstownk wrote: »

I see quite few names getting thrown in the air for tonights lynch.

Molly - I'm not convinced she's wolfy although as QB said, some of the theories do have merit.
Barney - he hasn't said much (similar to last game in a way) and maybe as Nopeare siad, he could be flying under the radar. But it's not convincing enough for me just yet and smacks of simply targeting a low poster.
Nopeare - The theory put forward does have merit. I get that he did suggest that Andy be shot but he also suggested not lynching a wolf. If he was so convinced that Andy was a wolf, why rely on others to eliminate him? Surely better to be sure and lynch him.

It's early in the day yet and I won't be casting my vote until closer to the time but for now I'm leaning towards voting for Nopeare. I could easily have a different view by the time the lynch comes around.

That's my current three.

If you want a fourth, I'll add Vale based on post content to date but that's purely just to add a fourth as his content gives me nothing to go on. Lynching him could be lucky and take out a wolf or at worst a roled villager.

So 16 people in single digits we can throw that on the scrap kind of.

Shatter is interesting posted like a demon last night but quite before and after

CDaly first post stood out a little to me http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=101945322&postcount=384

The first 3 quotes are from the first page the 4th is from page 8 and this post was on page 10.

For someone who just woke to it and had a lot of reading to do still, saw my post on page 8 so may have been following in the background and just using an excuse.

I did ask her and she said, she had skimmed the thread but why not say that instead of saying youve a lot of reading to do?

quickbeam

Comparing post count up to Tigger's death with postcount since and then doing a percentage of total posts, the following have posted significantly more since Tigger's death than before:

KERSPLAT! - 2 before, 26 since
Nopeare - 1 before, 18 since
Partyjungle - 1 before, 14 since
+ of course the four that hadn't posted at all before Tigger died.

If I were a wolf I would be doing my damndest to appear as if I were helping the village. I would post lots of theories and potential baddies all the while knowing I was sending the villagers down a dead end. So maybe the baddies are among the higher post counts.

Maximus Alexander

crosstownk wrote: »

I'll just quote myself from earlier rather typing most of it again...

Cheers. Sorry I actually looked at your post history to see if you'd already listed them but I somehow missed it :rolleyes: We're pretty much in agreement then, I'm leaning in all the same directions as you. Good to have a sanity check!

Maximus Alexander

Deleted User wrote: »

If I were a wolf I would be doing my damndest to appear as if I were helping the village. I would post lots of theories and potential baddies all the while knowing I was sending the villagers down a dead end. So maybe the baddies are among the higher post counts.

When you were a wolf that is not what you did.

quickbeam

And actually, on the subject of post count, I notice this, which may or may not mean anything:

Valeyard posts before Tigger killed - 19
Since Tigger killed - 4

He's the poster who's percentage of total posts has gone down most since that time.

I'll shut up about post count now I just got excited to be able to do some busy work while at work!

ShatterProof

Deleted User wrote: »

So 16 people in single digits we can throw that on the scrap kind of.

Shatter is interesting posted like a demon last night but quite before and after

CDaly first post stood out a little to me http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=101945322&postcount=384

The first 3 quotes are from the first page the 4th is from page 8 and this post was on page 10.

For someone who just woke to it and had a lot of reading to do still, saw my post on page 8 so may have been following in the background and just using an excuse.

I did ask her and she said, she had skimmed the thread but why not say that instead of saying youve a lot of reading to do?

nothing useful to say yet , going through posts

Guffy

It was mentiones this morn that a wolf could be in the crowd who voted for molly last night. I'd imagine just the one. Is everyone happy yoss was a wolf or should we be have a closer look at vale, trit and kers?

Uriel.

Is the Valeyard emerging as being very suspicious? Low posters could be just busy in rl, could be a villager with a role or could be a wolf.

Is it me or does past experience suggest that someone with a seemingly decent post count, but which turns out is mainly filler posts is probably more likely to be a bad role trying to hide?

Pawwed Rig

I don't think nopeare or party jungle have been convincing in their responses since they got here. But whether that means wolf or villager with a role? I'm not sure.
Wolfwise - I would have pegged one of Tigger and Andy for a wolf but probably not both.
I might be being lead now by recent posts but Vale seems likely now too imo. It is easy to be a high poster by fence sitting.

3 way race might be an idea but I haven't much on Barney.
Would the same voting structure as last night not be better? With Andys 10 votes redistributed the voting might tell a different more telling story tonight.

quickbeam

We haven't completely decided on the participants of a race yet, but of the names being bandied about I'm definitely leaning towards Vale at the moment. Still a lot can change before 10pm though.

Guffy

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Would the same voting structure as last night not be better? With Andys 10 votes redistributed the voting might tell a different more telling story tonight.

That's true enough.... ha we should just piss the mods and dead room off and not talk for the rest of the day and have completely secret votes

Maximus Alexander

gufc21 wrote: »

That's true enough.... ha we should just piss the mods and dead room off and not talk for the rest of the day and have completely secret votes

Noooooooooooo that's when they send the dragons! :eek:

Nopeare

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

I don't think nopeare or party jungle have been convincing in their responses since they got here. But whether that means wolf or villager with a role? I'm not sure.

I'm an ordinary villager that has clearly had a horrible start to this game to be suspected but if there is anything you want to ask that I can try to clear something up feel free.

quickbeam

Nopeare wrote: »

I'm an ordinary villager that has clearly had a horrible start to this game to be suspected but if there is anything you want to ask that I can try to clear something up feel free.

Are you a wolf?

Nopeare

Nopeare wrote: »

I'm an ordinary villager that has clearly had a horrible start to this game to be suspected but if there is anything you want to ask that I can try to clear something up feel free.

Whaaaaaat is your name?
Whaaaaaaat is your quest?
Whaaaaaaat is your favorite colour?

cdaly_

Deleted User wrote: »

CDaly first post stood out a little to me http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=101945322&postcount=384

The first 3 quotes are from the first page the 4th is from page 8 and this post was on page 10.

My excuse is that I'm cdaly_ rather than cdaly . The initial PM giving my status went to boards user cdaly (who, incidentally, is probably still wondering how they got to be Chuck Norris last month) instead of me so I only remembered the game yesterday afternoon.

For someone who just woke to it and had a lot of reading to do still, saw my post on page 8 so may have been following in the background and just using an excuse.

<CTRL>+F cdaly works pretty well for self-spotting in a thread...

I did ask her and she said, she had skimmed the thread but why not say that instead of saying youve a lot of reading to do?

Didn't want to be seen to be skimming...

Nopeare

quickbeam wrote: »

Are you a wolf?

No village idiot clearly

cdaly_

cdaly_ wrote: »

My excuse is that I'm cdaly_ rather than cdaly . The initial PM giving my status went to boards user cdaly (who, incidentally, is probably still wondering how they got to be Chuck Norris last month) instead of me so I only remembered the game yesterday afternoon.


<CTRL>+F cdaly works pretty well for self-spotting in a thread...


Didn't want to be seen to be skimming...

Cool that'll do my curiosity ty

Any suspects?

quickbeam

cdaly_ wrote: »

My excuse is that I'm cdaly_ rather than cdaly . The initial PM giving my status went to boards user cdaly (who, incidentally, is probably still wondering how they got to be Chuck Norris last month) instead of me so I only remembered the game yesterday afternoon.

You and Valeyard should start a club

MrsFlushdraw

The other Daly and Valeyard could have blown the game up last game had they came on and started posting. It would have been a riot! especially if they just got on with the game

This game is hard. I honestly still think our best approach is the crowd sourced wolf picks from early on. Some people are stating they wouldn't pick specific players because they would be suspected, but others disagree. We have found an average of the most likely wolves amongst us. Any argument based on post count can be turned on its head easily, so that's useless imo.

I went through crosstownnk's posts and honestly couldn't find much either way. Seems like bog standard sensible play.

I think Barney is a good option for lynching, he appeared many times in the initial crowd source: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=101939671&postcount=147

And also occurred many times in the selection of dead players' crowd source.

He only has four posts where he accuses Molly without any proper backing.

What say you Barney?

Pawwed Rig

Nopeare wrote: »

No village idiot clearly

Only a wolf would deny that they are a wolf

May I ask why Molly is now off the list? She was prime suspect yesterday early in the day

KERSPLAT!

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

May I ask why Molly is now off the list? She was prime suspect yesterday early in the day

Still on my list! No.1!

quickbeam

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

May I ask why Molly is now off the list? She was prime suspect yesterday early in the day

She's not off the list.