Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

Guffy

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Good waste of a vote buddy.

Maybe it is. Who do you suggest i vote for?

Barney92

Deleted User wrote: »

This game is hard. I honestly still think our best approach is the crowd sourced wolf picks from early on. Some people are stating they wouldn't pick specific players because they would be suspected, but others disagree. We have found an average of the most likely wolves amongst us. Any argument based on post count can be turned on its head easily, so that's useless imo.

I went through crosstownnk's posts and honestly couldn't find much either way. Seems like bog standard sensible play.

I think Barney is a good option for lynching, he appeared many times in the initial crowd source: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=101939671&postcount=147

And also occurred many times in the selection of dead players' crowd source.

He only has four posts where he accuses Molly without any proper backing.

What say you Barney?

I don't blame you, partyjungle, for offering me up as an option to lynch. I am next on the list of those who people would've selected, after Tigger and Andy. I gave some backing to my suspicion about Molly which was based on her exaggeration of my previous play. I didn't and don't question anyone who put me in their list, because for the most part their reasons are accurate I played out Andy's plan for us very well and almost won one and then stayed in till the end of another game. I was also commended for the graceful manner in which I accepted my lynching as a villager in an earlier game. Anyway, as I said before, she went further in that and I thought that might be her trying to deflect attention on to me, instead of someone else.

Barney92

Oh and I'm not sure yet about who the other wolves are, but that's because the ones I had my main suspicions about, Andy and Tigger (because I'd have them on my team if I could, and Andy's claim) are gone. Gufc was next on my list for that, so he'd be in second place behind molly.

The_Valeyard

gufc21 wrote: »

Maybe it is. Who do you suggest i vote for?

No idea. Playing catch up at present.

A Neurotic

Deleted User wrote:

This game is hard. I honestly still think our best approach is the crowd sourced wolf picks from early on. Some people are stating they wouldn't pick specific players because they would be suspected, but others disagree. We have found an average of the most likely wolves amongst us. Any argument based on post count can be turned on its head easily, so that's useless imo.

I think it's important to keep our focus on this. At this stage in the game we still don't have a lot to to on in terms of actual posted content, but if we believe the crowd source was accurate in getting us a wolf lynched, we should probably stick with it for the next couple of lynches and not get sidetracked.

I'm aware that I might appear to be trying to deflect attention away from low post counters like myself, but honestly I think this is a much better system to flush out wolves. Similar to my last game, my post count is very low because I simply can't keep up with the thread while at work and sometimes I'm out and about during the evenings too.

Currently, I'm looking at Barney for my vote. Simply because he's a popular wolf pick and is good at keeping his head down.

Guffy

The_Valeyard wrote: »

No idea. Playing catch up at present.

Im actually changing my vote from you. Adding kersplatt to my 3 but voting for another from the list

KERSPLAT!

What did I do!? I don't even know how the game flipping works

KERSPLAT!

I'm actually lost as to how we would ever figure out who's who. What's the score from the previous games in villagers v wolves?

I think one of Tigger and Andy were wolves, it's highly unlikely neither were Alpha or picked by the Alpha but after that I haven't a clue. I keep saying Molly because she's the only one that's standing out

quickbeam

5 games so far, 4 won by villagers.

But percentage wise this game is far more against the villagers than any previous game.

Maximus Alexander

A Neurotic wrote: »

I think it's important to keep our focus on this. At this stage in the game we still don't have a lot to to on in terms of actual posted content, but if we believe the crowd source was accurate in getting us a wolf lynched, we should probably stick with it for the next couple of lynches and not get sidetracked.

As the inventor of the crowd source I must point out that it statistically becomes much less reliable as we move down the list. Firstly, because the crowd was less certain on the lower ranks, but perhaps more importantly because there are fewer picked wolves remaining.

Only 4 of the wolves were chosen, and if we believe hat ee already got two of them then only two remain, redicing our odds of success with this method.

Now there still may be value in it and Barney got a fair few votes so would be high enough on the bell curve, but I think this beas pointing out. I wouldn't be fully relying on it if we have stronger evidence elsewhere, but it could lend weight to other arguments. I hope that makes sense.

Am I right in thinking that each wolf team has no clue who is included in either team but they do know who is in their own team?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Am I right in thinking that each wolf team has no clue who is included in either team but they do know who is in their own team?

That is the assumption I am making, yes

tritium

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

As the inventor of the crowd source I must point out that it statistically becomes much less reliable as we move down the list. Firstly, because the crowd was less certain on the lower ranks, but perhaps more importantly because there are fewer picked wolves remaining.

Only 4 of the wolves were chosen, and if we believe hat ee already got two of them then only two remain, redicing our odds of success with this method.

Now there still may be value in it and Barney got a fair few votes so would be high enough on the bell curve, but I think this beas pointing out. I wouldn't be fully relying on it if we have stronger evidence elsewhere, but it could lend weight to other arguments. I hope that makes sense.

I think the lend weight to the evidence is the key bit. Id suspect, like most people i think, that we have two wolves in the dead pile now. It might be possible to link their history to others who should be relatively high up the list. Thats stillonly 50% of the wolves however so now we're in the hard part

The_Valeyard

quickbeam wrote: »

5 games so far, 4 won by villagers.

But percentage wise this game is far more against the villagers than any previous game.

Technically one of those were white wolves all be it on the goodside lol

Barney92

Mollyb60 wrote: »

Oh god lads there is so much stuff here!
Off the top of my head, if I were alpha I'd be screwed but I would probably have picked either Tigger or Andy as my number 2 and then one of the noobs or quiet players as the other. Maybe Milkshake or Kersplatt. Although Barney was awesome in the last few games and MrsF has proved herself too.

I would've had a right conundrum about Tigger though. But basically I'd want him with me coz if we're on opposite teams I'm fooked coz he can apparently read me like a book.

This is the post I'm basing my view on partyjungle, wasn't able to quote it previously. It may not be much but it stood out amongst the others who selected me. So that's why I'll be voting to lynch her this evening. As it happens, we both chose Tigger, Andy and Milkshake and then differed on the final person.

Guffy

The more i look tgrough molly's posts, she has to be a wolf if bot alpha, doesn't she?

KERSPLAT!

gufc21 wrote: »

The more i look tgrough molly's posts, she has to be a wolf if bot alpha, doesn't she?

Yep, in my opinion.

I'll be voting Molly

KERSPLAT!

When does the lynch form open? I've to get mine in before 8

There was a post hours ago saying it was open.

KERSPLAT!

I tried the one in the OP and it's a no go

KERSPLAT!

Sorry, the one from my PM works

Maximus Alexander

KERSPLAT! wrote: »

I tried the one in the OP and it's a no go

You should have it in a PM, but here it is anyway.

KERSPLAT!

Sorted, cheers

I think I shall be casting my vote for Molly.

I'm uncertain regarding Molly simply because nothing about her is standing out for me but I'm open to the possibility.

crosstownk

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm uncertain regarding Molly simply because nothing about her is standing out for me but I'm open to the possibility.

I'm of the same opinion. While I'm a bit uneasy of Molly's posts from the first day with all the Alpha references, I'm not sure if it's enough to warrant a lynching just yet.

At the moment I'm torn between Vale, Nopeare and to a lesser extent, Barney.

Pawwed Rig

So are we doing a run off with 3 or open voting?
Is a 3 person runoff even an option?

KERSPLAT!

Molly is the only one standing out for me at the moment. If I was convinced on another I'd pick them but with not much to go on, Molly got my vote

KERSPLAT!

What's a run off?

Jayop

Maybe the young lady Sully can repair the one in the OP.