Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

quickbeam

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

That is weird Strawberry milkshake thought she was gone, could it be that the she suspected the person that was trained? never pegged her as a role at all.

Seers don't train apprentices.

Uriel.

ShatterProof wrote: »

Nothing in her posts could have given her away as having a role.

i haven't gone back through her posts yet, but if that is the case, then Maximus might be right about the speed of the wolf teams.

ShatterProof

Uriel. wrote: »

i haven't gone back through her posts yet, but if that is the case, then Maximus might be right about the speed of the wolf teams.

See update , wasnt looking at the milkshaes posts, so ignore.

MrsFlushdraw

Uriel. wrote: »

feck, that's some serious good play Strawberry you never really entered my mind as having a role, so fair play and particularly fair play that you revealed yourself as you did - surely a 9.59 reveal meant there wasn't enough time for a kill order to be made? if not, then strawberry found something that led her to believe she would be targeted

Now if worst case scenario is that she was the drunk seer, how does the 66% thing work? is it random or are the first two peaks correct but the third incorrect - I am guessing it is random. so potentially kersplatt and Mrs F could have been/be wolves and irrespective of Strawberry being normal or drunk seer either of them could be the alpha...
does the seer role really offer us anything at all in this game? I know it has been said by many already but the odds are really stacked against us this time.

The seer is not able to help really when Alphas show as villagers. Bit of a waste of the role and makes the game really hard. I much prefer when we get a straight answer. SO I was peeked as a villager and still I am under suspicion.

Only way to prove is to have me die which is ridiculous if we kill every peeked villager in the hope that one is the alpha. Considering the amount of villagers against 2 alphas and the odds on me being an alpha...

MrsFlushdraw

quickbeam wrote: »

Seers don't train apprentices.

Sorry, was a drunk Seer and a normal seer.

Maximus Alexander

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

So, we have a tiny bit of info anyway: There's a 66% chance MrsF is either a villager or an alpha.

Actually, just thinking about this, the odds are more complicated.

There's a 50% chance that SM was the normal seer, in which case MrsF 100% a villager (or alpha).

Then there's a 50% chance that SM was drunk, in which case there is a 66% percent chance MrsF is a villager (or alpha).

So there's an 83% chance MrsF is a villager (or alpha) if my numbers are right.

Now, there are 2 alphas and 16 villagers, so an 11% chance that she would be an alpha if the seer go the true answer.

So that means that there is a 74% chance MrsF is a villager. A 17% chance she is a wolf and a 9% chance she is an alpha. If I've done my maths right. Which I may not have.

MrsFlushdraw

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Actually, just thinking about this, the odds are more complicated.

There's a 50% chance that SM was the normal seer, in which case MrsF 100% a villager (or alpha).

Then there's a 50% chance that SM was drunk, in which case there is a 66% percent chance MrsF is a villager (or alpha).

So there's an 83% chance MrsF is a villager (or alpha) if my numbers are right.

Now, there are 2 alphas and 16 villagers, so an 11% chance that she would be an alpha if the seer go the true answer.

So that means that there is a 74% chance MrsF is a villager. A 17% chance she is a wolf and a 9% chance she is an alpha. If I've done my maths right. Which I may not have.

No that isnt right. I cant be 83% chance of both! Its 83% on and 17% ALpha.

I have my hubby working on the odds haha as I wanted to post about it.

MrsFlushdraw

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

No that isnt right. I cant be 83% chance of both! Its 83% on and 17% ALpha.

I have my hubby working on the odds haha as I wanted to post about it.

Cant edit, I noticed the first part and not the part that was bolded sorry,

quickbeam

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

So that means ...

I'll take your word for it

The_Valeyard

Hmmm

Interesting, we should lynch one of the three that Strawberry said. ALso add Gufc1 to that list.

MrsFlushdraw

2 x Seers
1 normal seer Santa who is given the truthful answer to the question, is XYZ a wolf apart from the Alpha's who will always return a negative answer.
1 drunk seer Bad Santa who will be given the truthful answer 66% of the time apart from when they check the Alpha's who will always return a negative answer.
The drunk seer answer is calculated by having the correct answer in hand then rolling a dice and if it rolls 1 or 6 they get the wrong info.
Seer: The seer has the ability to PM the moderator once per turn and ask him 'Is X a werewolf?' to which the moderator will answer truthfully yes or no.
At the start of the game both Santa's will be told they are Santa and they will not know if they are Bad or not.
They do not have a forum and cannot communicate with each other.

This all makes it difficult. I am confused!

quickbeam

Mrs. Flushdraw hasn't struck me this game as at all wolfy. Which makes me suspicious. She said previously she plays the villager role wolfy. So if she's not wolfy does that mean she's actually a wolf?

Ouch, my head hurts!

Maximus Alexander

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

No that isnt right. I cant be 83% chance of both! Its 83% on and 17% ALpha.

I have my hubby working on the odds haha as I wanted to post about it.

Eh, I just increased your villager cred, don't argue with me. :cool:

Pawwed Rig

quickbeam wrote: »

Anyone fancy trying Jayop's plan from last game - the #FFA one or whatever it's called.

Name our top three suspects, after a certain time we collate the data and run the top two or three. Precede each post naming your suspects with the #FFA3 tag (3 for third lynch) so we can find them again later?

We need a strategy like this as the current method is not telling us a whole lot.

MrsFlushdraw

There are 25 players in the game. Seer knows his role, so he doesn't now 24 others. He has a 2 in 24 chance of peeking the alpha, so that's 8.33%. He has a 12 in 24 chance of peeking a 'villager' so that's 50%. 2 out of 12 'villagers' will be the alpha, so if 10 villagers and 2 alphas left it's a 2/12=16.7% chance he peeks an alpha. If only 9 villagers left then it's a 2/11 chance=18.2% chance etc.

Guffy

Ok so every nominates 3 people and we take the top two for a race?

ShatterProof

Its obvious milkshake was a santa , did anybody notice her signature

ShatterProof

I think she may have been spotted by a couple of posts of her. It looks like twice she asked for help in who she should peek. Will quote them properly later.

1) If someone could confirm the 3 we are to choose from that would really help me.

2) If this could happen before 9 that would be great

Lads this is a long shot but its not outside the realms of possibility:

MrsFD is an alpha, Strawberry Milkshake was a wolf. The wolves coordinated to kill SM and Kersplatt to make sure MrsFD appears as almost untouchable. They sacrifice SM to give themselves a very strong position.

MrsFlushdraw

Deleted User wrote: »

Lads this is a long shot but its not outside the realms of possibility:

MrsFD is an alpha, Strawberry Milkshake was a wolf. The wolves coordinated to kill SM and Kersplatt to make sure MrsFD appears as almost untouchable. They sacrifice SM to give themselves a very strong position.

You just made yourself look really suss with that BS! We all know I am not in the clear until I am dead or the alphas are dead and the priests reveal.

MrsFlushdraw

quickbeam wrote: »

Mrs. Flushdraw hasn't struck me this game as at all wolfy. Which makes me suspicious. She said previously she plays the villager role wolfy. So if she's not wolfy does that mean she's actually a wolf?

Ouch, my head hurts!

I have never known what it was that made me look wolfy tbh. I was told in all the games on the Poker forum I always looked wolfy so played the same way every game as I lasted longer. But not sure what my core element is that causes that :P

Been working on a way to understand peeks and will post soon. Working on with the hubby haha

MrsFlushdraw

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

You just made yourself look really suss with that BS! We all know I am not in the clear until I am dead or the alphas are dead and the priests reveal.

It's just something that occurred to me. It's not impossible. It could also force out some good roles. Is that worth losing a team member? I don't know. But methinks the lady doth protest too much..

ShatterProof

Deleted User wrote: »

Lads this is a long shot but its not outside the realms of possibility:

MrsFD is an alpha, Strawberry Milkshake was a wolf. The wolves coordinated to kill SM and Kersplatt to make sure MrsFD appears as almost untouchable. They sacrifice SM to give themselves a very strong position.

Problem with this plan is MrsFD is not cleared , i think the wolves would have been more devious and come up with something that have cleared her.

If MrsFD was cleared , then granted she wouldn't be lynched but would still be target for the other wolves and hans. ( we know there are still 2 wolf packs , wont know until tomorrow if hans is still about)

Guffy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Lads this is a long shot but its not outside the realms of possibility:

MrsFD is an alpha, Strawberry Milkshake was a wolf. The wolves coordinated to kill SM and Kersplatt to make sure MrsFD appears as almost untouchable. They sacrifice SM to give themselves a very strong position.

The hell is this? Are you the last wolf? Surely your backroom couldn't have okayed that post???

Actually its stupid because then it tells the other wolf team who the opposition alpha is. Nevermind

ShatterProof

gufc21 wrote: »

The hell is this? Are you the last wolf? Surely your backroom couldn't have okayed that post???

subtle :P

MrsFlushdraw

There are 25 players in the game. Seer knows his role, so he doesn't now 24 others. He has a 2 in 24 chance of peeking the alpha, so that's 8.33%. He has a 12 in 24 chance of peeking a 'villager' so that's 50%. 2 out of 12 'villagers' will be the alpha, so if 10 villagers and 2 alphas left it's a 2/12=16.7% chance he peeks an alpha. If only 9 villagers left then it's a 2/11 chance=18.2% chance etc.

So out the other 24 people in the game, when normal santa asks 'is he a ww' then 18 times will be no, and 6 times will be yes, so 25% chance of getting a ww
so he has a 75% chance of peeking a villager

so 2 from 18 peeks which say 'no' could be alpha, so he has a 2/18 chance of peeking alpha which is 11%

he also has a 75% chance (18/24) of peeking a villager (16 villagers + 2 alphas because he will always be told that the alpha is a villager regardless of whether he rolls a dice so that choice will always be a villager)

He can't reply on this info though because it's only going to be correct 66% of the time, so every single peek he makes, he will only be 66% sure of their role. Even if he peeks a ww, he's going be wrong 1 in 3 times. When he peaks a villager, he's going be wrong 1 in 3 times. I cant really work out % because it seems irrelevant if you get me so hard to explain.


So the real Santa has a 2/18 chance of peeking the alpha, which is 11% (as they would have been told 'yes, he is a ww' for the other 6 people.

if the bad santa was told 'no, he is not a ww' then there's a 66% chance myself, or anyone else peeked, is a villager.

The fact alpha is always returned as a negative seems irrelevant

This to me means that we NEED to know what Milkshake was so we know the odds on the peek, but as I posted there the peeks are kind of useless and the only info we can guarantee is the ACTUAL priest as the trainee could easily be a wolf.

This game is so easy to win for the wolves, the village don't stand a chance!

Maximus Alexander

sullivlo wrote: »

Roster
Kersplat - Munched; Likely Villager.
Molly - Hanged by the neck until dead.
Uriel
Crosstownk
Yosser - Munched.
Quickbeam
MrsFlushdraw - Likely Villager.
The_Valeyard
dottie_lottie - Munched.
Maximus
Tritium
CDaly
Nopeare
TheDazzler
Andy125 - Hanged by the neck until dead.
GUFC
The Legend that is Tigger! - Munched.
Persepoly
Pawwed Rig
Partyjungle
Shatterproof
Strawberry Milkshake - Munched; Santa / Bad Santa.
Barney92
Deleted User - Fell down a Nakatomi lift shaft.
A Neurotic

Quick update on the state of play.

8 dead. 17 remain. Only role we know is Milkshake.

Was just doing the same

Roster
Kersplat Munched
Molly Lynched
Uriel
Crosstownk
Yosser Munched
Quickbeam
MrsFlushdraw
The_Valeyard
dottie_lottie Munched
Maximus
Tritium
CDaly
Nopeare
TheDazzler
Andy125 Lynched - End of Turn 1 - Claimed priest
GUFC
The Legend that is Tigger! Munched
Persepoly
Pawwed Rig
Partyjungle
Shatterproof
Strawberry Milkshake Munched - Claimed Santa/Drunk
Barney92
Deleted User Killed by SK
A Neurotic

MrsFlushdraw

If you're peeked as villager, then you're 89% villager if it's the real seer, and 66% a villager if it's the bad seer so on average, there's a 77.5% you're a villager and only 22.5% you're a wolf.

My brain is bursting and not going to think about it anymore