Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

Maximus Alexander

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

This to me means that we NEED to know what Milkshake was so we know the odds on the peek, but as I posted there the peeks are kind of useless and the only info we can guarantee is the ACTUAL priest as the trainee could easily be a wolf.

This game is so easy to win for the wolves, the village don't stand a chance!

They are not useless. They don't give you perfect information but they give you better probabilities as my post earlier about you demonstrated. We can now be more confident that you are a villager than anyone else. That's not nothing.

tritium

MOD: Did the santas get a peek on the Sunday before the first munch?

Guffy

ShatterProof wrote: »

subtle :P

Whats the point of subtlety? That was one of the worst look at me I'm really innocent posts I've seen. I mean god, I'd believe the moon landing was faked before I'd believe that.


Wolfy wolfy wolfy

quickbeam

Alrighty, it was my idea to do Jayop's thing, so I'll get the ball rolling. In no particular order:

#FFA3

Valeyard - lots of vapid posts, until this was pointed out to him, now making more of an effort
Nopeare - suspicious posts, something about his "helpfulness" in suggesting Andy should be shot doesn't ring true.
Partyjungle - coming across wolfy

quickbeam

How about we give it until 6pm to get as many votes in, then that gives us 4 hours to vote on our top 3? If we don't catch everybody that's not a biggie, if most people still provide their choices.

MrsFlushdraw

#FFA3

Nopeare - Had thought of him since the start and looks very wolfy with posts
Partyjungle - Really came out wolfy today
Tritium - Just something niggling me there about Trit can't put finger on

ShatterProof

Okay here is the first post where I think Milkshake asked for help

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Morning all.

Is there any advantage to looking at who voted in small numbers? Do we know everyone's reasons?

Is crosstown (who i have my doubts about) being helpful here or steering her away from her plan

crosstownk wrote: »

There probably isn't much advantage just yet. There is no doubt that some wolves are in the group that voted for Andy as there are others among the rest of the votes.

Any half decent wolf team would have spread their votes with a view to. At this stage, who voted for who doesn't mean an awful lot but could be of significance later is we have a pattern to analyse.

The second time she asked

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

My three would be...

Partyjungle
Molly
Nopeare

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

If someone could confirm the 3 we are to choose from that would really help me.

If this could happen before 9 that would be great as I hope to be leaving work then and I have an hours drive home.

This time people make suggestions

Uriel. wrote: »

......Barney ,Vale,Molly,Nopeare .....

crosstownk wrote: »

....Nopeare,Molly,Barney.....

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

I wouldn't argue with that.....

Her peeks weren't much use to her so for her lynch vote

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

....I have to take what I'm told so chose Molly for our lynch.

gufc21

gufc21 wrote: »

Whats the point of subtlety? That was one of the worst look at me I'm really innocent posts I've seen. I mean god, I'd believe the moon landing was faked before I'd believe that.


Wolfy wolfy wolfy

I come out with some theory and realise it doesn't make it sense. Ergo I'm a wolf. This game is so frustrating. No wonder I barely post.

MrsFlushdraw

ShatterProof wrote: »

Okay here is the first post where I think Milkshake asked for help



Is crosstown (who i have my doubts about) being helpful here or steering her away from her plan




The second time she asked






This time people make suggestions






Her peeks weren't much use to her so for her lynch vote

Never noticed all that. Well spotted. That is what happens when you skim for a day or so.

Uriel.

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

This to me means that we NEED to know what Milkshake was so we know the odds on the peek, but as I posted there the peeks are kind of useless and the only info we can guarantee is the ACTUAL priest as the trainee could easily be a wolf.

This game is so easy to win for the wolves, the village don't stand a chance!

well that's a wonderful thought. Two seers that may or may not be of major value in comparison with previous games. And the possibility that there's a trainee priest wolf running around out there, great. I guess sulli and jayop are on team wolf this time around anyway.

Uriel.

ShatterProof wrote: »

Okay here is the first post where I think Milkshake asked for help



Is crosstown (who i have my doubts about) being helpful here or steering her away from her plan




The second time she asked






This time people make suggestions






Her peeks weren't much use to her so for her lynch vote

yeah that's a great spot, fair play. It's a pity Die hard didn't spot it too and protect Strawberry.

ShatterProof

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

If you're peeked as villager, then you're 89% villager if it's the real seer, and 66% a villager if it's the bad seer so on average, there's a 77.5% you're a villager and only 22.5% you're a wolf.

My brain is bursting and not going to think about it anymore

if you are the sober or drunk santa and peek an alpha you are 100% wrong.

Guffy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I come out with some theory and realise it doesn't make it sense. Ergo I'm a wolf. This game is so frustrating. No wonder I barely post.

But the fact that you barely post and then come out with a few in a short period of time when accused is wolfy

gufc21

gufc21 wrote: »

But the fact that you barely post and then come out with a few in a short period of time when accused is wolfy

Posting when accused is wofly, not defending yourself instantly is wolfy. Posting too much is wolfy, not posting enough is wolfy. Maybe I'm just bad at this game but most of the discussion that indicates suspicion can be turned on its head to be seen as double bluff.

In regards to a race, I'll put forward

Barney - I still think he's the highest probability of being a wolf based on the crowd sourcing. I think we're mad to continue to ignore this.
Valeyard - vapid post content
gufc - because I'm bitter about that accusation and I have no third :pac:

ShatterProof

Deleted User wrote: »

Posting when accused is wofly, not defending yourself instantly is wolfy. Posting too much is wolfy, not posting enough is wolfy. Maybe I'm just bad at this game but most of the discussion that indicates suspicion can be turned on its head to be seen as double bluff.

In regards to a race, I'll put forward

Barney - I still think he's the highest probability of being a wolf based on the crowd sourcing. I think we're mad to continue to ignore this.
Valeyard - vapid post content
gufc - because I'm bitter about that accusation and I have no third :pac:

If gufc is blown away next this doesn't look good for you, a wolf in serial killers clothing !!!!

ShatterProof

#FFA3

Crosstown - think he's a wolf with max
Max - think he's a wolf with crosstown
Barney - Good player ,I think he's a obvious wolf pick and been keeping head down and has said nothing to change my mind yet.

tritium

#ffa3

Barney: low postcount, head down, good choice for a wolf pick, hasnt added much to the debate either way

Max: just something not sitting right here, will need to look back to try to pin down what

Cdaly_: a very token contribution so far, im wondering if they might be hans

Guffy

#ffa3

C_daly

Party jungle

Barney

Guffy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Posting when accused is wofly, not defending yourself instantly is wolfy. Posting too much is wolfy, not posting enough is wolfy. Maybe I'm just bad at this game but most of the discussion that indicates suspicion can be turned on its head to be seen as double bluff.
:

Nope... not posting until you are accused is wolfy. Either of the two in isolation is just playing the game combining the two smacks of somethings up here.

MrsFlushdraw

I was actually suss about Max but he has been very helpful and not sure if its a helpful wolf or a helpful villager.

Wanted to put him on my #FFA list but for some reason held back, not sure why though

#Isuckathisgame

Maximus Alexander

#FFA3

- Nopeare

- Partyjungle

- cdaly_

Nopeare for reasons outlined yesterday.

Partyjungle because I agree that his posts have been fishy and I haven't really been convinced by his reaction. Threw the toys out of the pram a bit which just makes me more suspicious.

cdaly_ is a new one for me. I was looking back at Andy this morning to see if anything else could be gleaned. Early in the game I said that a wolf would probably have one of their teammates in their list of 4 picks for the crowd source. Andy had cdaly_, so I went and had a look at his posts. 6 posts in total. 6. The first one playing the clueless "I need to catch up" card, and a couple trying to take a bit of pressure off Andy when he was up for lynch. I feel pretty confident about this one.

Maximus Alexander

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

I was actually suss about Max but he has been very helpful and not sure if its a helpful wolf or a helpful villager.

Wanted to put him on my #FFA list but for some reason held back, not sure why though

#Isuckathisgame

Not really sure what to say to that tbh. I've done as much as I can for the village but if it hasn't been enough then so be it. I get that we're all clutching at straws but I feel I've been totally transparent. Happy to be in a race anyway, if we're going to lynch a villager then better it be me than the other seer.

quickbeam

quickbeam wrote: »

I've had a theory overnight about someone else, that I'd like to mull over for a few hours - munch results depending.

quickbeam wrote: »

Nopeare - suspicious posts, something about his "helpfulness" in suggesting Andy should be shot doesn't ring true.

Just to expand on my overnight theory. Something about Nopeare suggesting the bodyguard shoot Andy set off alarm bells with me. It was very reminiscent of when, in a previous game, Barney threw a teammate under the bus on the advice of Andy. So I wonder if something similar happened this time. It's just like something Andy would suggest. Something like:

Andy's at risk of lynching
Andy tells Nopeare to suggest the bodyguard use one of his bullets on him
This gives Andy the excuse to come out as the Priest as he was at "risk" of being shot
Two scenarios then - either he's believed, and saved from the lynch
Or he's not believed and lynched anyway, but it was heading that way anyway so nothing much lost
But no matter which happens, suddenly Nopeare gets massive villager credit, because a wolf would hardly suggest to shoot his fellow wolf, would he????

So, is this credible? likely?

ShatterProof

quickbeam wrote: »

Just to expand on my overnight theory. Something about Nopeare suggesting the bodyguard shoot Andy set off alarm bells with me. It was very reminiscent of when, in a previous game, Barney threw a teammate under the bus on the advice of Andy. So I wonder if something similar happened this time. It's just like something Andy would suggest. Something like:

Andy's at risk of lynching
Andy tells Nopeare to suggest the bodyguard use one of his bullets on him
This gives Andy the excuse to come out as the Priest as he was at "risk" of being shot
Two scenarios then - either he's believed, and saved from the lynch
Or he's not believed and lynched anyway, but it was heading that way anyway so nothing much lost
But no matter which happens, suddenly Nopeare gets massive villager credit, because a wolf would hardly suggest to shoot his fellow wolf, would he????

So, is this credible? likely?

Problem with this is Nopeare hasn't gained credibility and is on a lot of peoples hit list

cdaly_

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

cdaly_ is a new one for me. I was looking back at Andy this morning to see if anything else could be gleaned. Early in the game I said that a wolf would probably have one of their teammates in their list of 4 picks for the crowd source. Andy had cdaly_, so I went and had a look at his posts. 6 posts in total. 6. The first one playing the clueless "I need to catch up" card, and a couple trying to take a bit of pressure off Andy when he was up for lynch. I feel pretty confident about this one.

Just too busy in RL. Haven't even managed to get suspicious of anyone. My lynch votes were pretty much bandwagon jumpi - oh look! a squirrel....



*gets distracted and wanders off...

Guffy

cdaly_ wrote: »

Just too busy in RL. Haven't even managed to get suspicious of anyone. My lynch votes were pretty much bandwagon jumpi - oh look! a squirrel....



*gets distracted and wanders off...

Was i at the head of a bandwagon?

Guffy

I would have had an easier time believing that if you ha voted for andy, cdaly.

Guffy

ShatterProof wrote: »

Problem with this is Nopeare hasn't gained credibility and is on a lot of peoples hit list

Tbf they weren't to know that before it was played, if the theory is correct that is. Its certainly something to consider and definitely justifies a peak

Maximus Alexander

gufc21 wrote: »

Tbf they weren't to know that before it was played, if the theory is correct that is. Its certainly something to consider and definitely justifies a peak

Peak:



:pac:

Nopeare

Do you know what there is so much suspicion about me its actually distracting others from picking targets. I'm not great at picking out wolves and some who might are focussed on me and wasting time, lynch me and get it over with. Otherwise this rubbish will continue on for days and the actual wolfs will coast by.
I'm suspect of Barney, not sure who else.
I know someone will spin this as wolfy, (or Hans trying to thin numbers) but I'd suggest as a plan.
17 players left - Assuming the bodyguard, priest and one team of wolves have 4 left
The wolves will then have 13 opposition players to pick from for all other roles (Good and bad) so a 1 in 13 chance of killing the bodyguard then his bullets are useless.
Pick the 3 of us most suspect shoot 2 and lynch the other get the priest to reveal tomorrow morning on the stroke of 10 before the munch result to make sure you get information then if still alive after you'd get the other 2 from the munch and a nights protection great result (so an extra lynch and 2 munchs).
Then you'd be down to 12 (17 - 2 shot, 1 lynched, 2 munched = 12) you'd know the roles of 13 players and then we give someone who is good at trawling through posts a chance to find patterns etc.