Werewolf VI - Jingle Bell Rock - GAME OVER - VILLAGE WIN

quickbeam

Nopeare wrote: »

Do you know what there is so much suspicion about me its actually distracting others from picking targets. I'm not great at picking out wolves and some who might are focussed on me and wasting time, lynch me and get it over with. Otherwise this rubbish will continue on for days and the actual wolfs will coast by.
I'm suspect of Barney, not sure who else.
I know someone will spin this as wolfy, (or Hans trying to thin numbers) but I'd suggest as a plan.
17 players left - Assuming the bodyguard, priest and one team of wolves have 4 left
The wolves will then have 13 opposition players to pick from for all other roles (Good and bad) so a 1 in 13 chance of killing the bodyguard then his bullets are useless.
Pick the 3 of us most suspect shoot 2 and lynch the other get the priest to reveal tomorrow morning on the stroke of 10 before the munch result to make sure you get information then if still alive after you'd get the other 2 from the munch and a nights protection great result (so an extra lynch and 2 munchs).
Then you'd be down to 12 (17 - 2 shot, 1 lynched, 2 munched = 12) you'd know the roles of 13 players and then we give someone who is good at trawling through posts a chance to find patterns etc.

Not from Hans though unfortunately.

Other than that .... thinking, maybe.

Barney92

It could be a good plan if we could guarantee a few things. First the bodyguard would have to be alive, they haven't saved anyone yet so they might be dead. We'd know soon enough if this was the case if people went along with this plan but it wasn't actually carried out. Then we'd need one of the priests to still be alive, with it being possible that both are dead. Third, if the original priest is dead, then we would need the apprentice to be on the side of good. If they are not, then it almost hands the game to one of the bad teams. They would be able to take their time and discuss with the rest of their team (if any are still around). Then they could craft/manipulate the 'roles' of the dead so as to gain every possible advantage. Given that we can't guarantee all of the above, I don't think it's the best plan. A priest would have to confirm they were alive before the shooting began, otherwise we could be shooting blindly.

crosstownk

I'm crazy busy today and lots of travelling so I've just skimmed the posts since this morning's munch.

As I haven't read it all properly, I'll stick with my 3 from last night for now. I may change it when I get home this evening and get to read everything again.

FWIW, my 3 at the moment are:

#FFA3

Nopeare,
Barney,
Vale.

I'm not up to speed on the SM claim for Santa and I see a lot of posts regarding that so my FFA is subject to change.

cdaly_

A Neurotic wrote: »

Andy is very likely a wolf and his claim smacks of desperation.

I find it hard to get my head around anyone suggesting we don't lynch him. Haz wolf. Lynch wolf. Let's get the basics done.

Think it reflects poorly on yoss, gufc, and shatter, that they're against lynching him.

Uriel. wrote: »

Does anyone else find gufc's staunch defence of Andy a little off?

Just looking back through his posts and his put forward quickbeam as his lynch vote. Is that not a really odd choice all things considered? Andy, molly and maybe even yosser would have been the front runners to me, that vote just seems way out of left field.. A wolf trying to hide from the consensus votes..?

Uriel. wrote: »

Gufc stood out more to me cos of his vote without anything being offered. It seems odd. Of course I'm more than happy to add you to the suspicion list

gufc21 wrote: »

I would have had an easier time believing that if you ha voted for andy, cdaly.

T'was based on the above posts and a bit of 'who shall I lynch' scrabbling about towards the end.

The_Valeyard

let's run 3 tonight. I'll volunteer for running to get gufc21 and quickie off my back. I want to also run two other with me.

The_Valeyard

Let's run

Me

Cross

Gufc21


But have a public vote. See before the lynch. Who goes for who. Stop wolves plotting quick kills.

quickbeam

The_Valeyard wrote: »

let's run 3 tonight. I'll volunteer for running to get gufc21 and quickie off my back. I want to also run two other with me.

I'm not on your back. I'm on Nopeare's back I already said I'd not vote for you tonight.

The_Valeyard

quickbeam wrote: »

I'm not on your back. I'm on Nopeare's back I already said I'd not vote for you tonight.

Do you have a hairy back?

quickbeam

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Let's run

Me

Cross

Gufc21


But have a public vote. See before the lynch. Who goes for who. Stop wolves plotting quick kills.

If they were the choices though, yeah, I would vote for you.

The_Valeyard

quickbeam wrote: »

If they were the choices though, yeah, I would vote for you.

I'm still fine with that.

Maximus Alexander

Nopeare wrote: »

Do you know what there is so much suspicion about me its actually distracting others from picking targets. I'm not great at picking out wolves and some who might are focussed on me and wasting time, lynch me and get it over with. Otherwise this rubbish will continue on for days and the actual wolfs will coast by.
I'm suspect of Barney, not sure who else.
I know someone will spin this as wolfy, (or Hans trying to thin numbers) but I'd suggest as a plan.
17 players left - Assuming the bodyguard, priest and one team of wolves have 4 left
The wolves will then have 13 opposition players to pick from for all other roles (Good and bad) so a 1 in 13 chance of killing the bodyguard then his bullets are useless.
Pick the 3 of us most suspect shoot 2 and lynch the other get the priest to reveal tomorrow morning on the stroke of 10 before the munch result to make sure you get information then if still alive after you'd get the other 2 from the munch and a nights protection great result (so an extra lynch and 2 munchs).
Then you'd be down to 12 (17 - 2 shot, 1 lynched, 2 munched = 12) you'd know the roles of 13 players and then we give someone who is good at trawling through posts a chance to find patterns etc.

I think it's a very poor plan when we're working off so little information. The reason we have these long drawn out debates about lynches is because we have no certainty on anything, and we'd be more likely to be shooting villagers than bad guys.

We (hopefully) have a seer and at least one priest out there collecting information. They will come out when the deem it appropriate and with the information they have we will be much better placed to use those bullets effectively. Can only see this nuclear option hurting us.

tritium

quickbeam wrote: »

Just to expand on my overnight theory. Something about Nopeare suggesting the bodyguard shoot Andy set off alarm bells with me. It was very reminiscent of when, in a previous game, Barney threw a teammate under the bus on the advice of Andy. So I wonder if something similar happened this time. It's just like something Andy would suggest. Something like:

Andy's at risk of lynching
Andy tells Nopeare to suggest the bodyguard use one of his bullets on him
This gives Andy the excuse to come out as the Priest as he was at "risk" of being shot
Two scenarios then - either he's believed, and saved from the lynch
Or he's not believed and lynched anyway, but it was heading that way anyway so nothing much lost
But no matter which happens, suddenly Nopeare gets massive villager credit, because a wolf would hardly suggest to shoot his fellow wolf, would he????

So, is this credible? likely?

This is very credible and a few people i think may have alluded to it when andy first claimed. I think the view then switched to yoss being the beneficiary of Andys sacrifice but tbh id be inclined to think it had more depth than that.

sullivlo

Reminder
- Day of the Prancer
- Lynch form is open

---

The dead room were frantically
Pushing f5.
"Who are they munching?
Who's left alive?"

The theories are flying
about who might be evil.
When they figure it out,
There'll be an upheaval.

---

TTFN

quickbeam

You're wasted in science, Sully!

Guffy

At work so back to sk8mming. Theres something that strikes me about vale's suggestion though.

This morning we agreed to do the ffa thing. We started it. Is valw high on the accumulated list?

Is it possible that he sees himself and another wolf on his team being put in the same race and is picking 2 others to be raced in essence sacraficing himself to save another person high on the vote list?

Again at work so have possibly articulated this all wrong. I will try to have a closer look at lunch but that wont be till after 6.

Guffy

Of course it assumes vale is a wolf

Maximus Alexander

Even though I don't have Vale as a wolf, there's a definite whiff of sense off the above when put against the backdrop of the apparent randomness of Vale's suggestion.

Pawwed Rig

My election

#FFA3

Nopeare,
Barney,
Partyjungle

tritium

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Let's run

Me

Cross

Gufc21


But have a public vote. See before the lynch. Who goes for who. Stop wolves plotting quick kills.

Why that trio vale?

quickbeam

9* FFA votes in, 8 to go. As nobody counter-suggested, I think we'll go with our top three at 6pm as I suggested, so still just under an hour for the rest of you to vote.

*I'm not counting Vale's three as I'm not sure if they're serious FFA suggestions or not.

Maximus Alexander

Maybe list who we are waiting on to give them a nudge? If you have a list handy.

The_Valeyard

tritium wrote: »

Why that trio vale?

Gufc has been under suspicion for a long time now by a number of posters.

Cross has also been suggested by at least three different posters.

ive too little info on Nos, barn, you, quick, etc.


I know im just a villager (first time its happened, odds were bound to be that probably)

So im the neutral one. Im a villager, possible of at least one wolf between Guffy and Cross.

quickbeam

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Gufc has been under suspicion for a long time now by a number of posters.

Cross has also been suggested by at least three different posters.

ive too little info on Nos, barn, you, quick, etc.


I know im just a villager (first time its happened, odds were bound to be that probably)

So im the neutral one. Im a villager, possible of at least one wolf between Guffy and Cross.

If you're finally a villager than that means that Uriel is now DEFINITELY a roled player. Bound to happen eventually.

May or may not be flaws in my logic there.

quickbeam

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Maybe list who we are waiting on to give them a nudge? If you have a list handy.

Not handy, but easy enough to get:

Uriel.
The_Valeyard
cdaly_
Nopeare
The Dazzler
Persepoly
Barney92
A Neurotic

Pawwed Rig

quickbeam wrote: »

Not handy, but easy enough to get:

Uriel.
The_Valeyard
cdaly_
Nopeare
The Dazzler
Persepoly
Barney92
A Neurotic

Hmmmm eight still outstanding. 2 groups of 4 planning something maybe???

A Neurotic

#FFA3

Barney
The_Valeyard
cdaly_

Bit fluey today, so I'm off work, but screen time is giving me a headache

Guffy

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Hmmmm eight still outstanding. 2 groups of 4 planning something maybe???

Hopefully not

The_Valeyard

A Neurotic wrote: »

#FFA3

Barney
The_Valeyard
cdaly_

Bit fluey today, so I'm off work, but screen time is giving me a headache

A vote for me is stupid and gives the wolves another victory.

We need to look more at Cross and Guffy

tritium

The_Valeyard wrote: »

A vote for me is stupid and gives the wolves another victory.

We need to look more at Cross and Guffy

Im still not understanding why those two candidates are better than the ones listed in the FFA?

Uriel.

Sorry folks my sibling is getting married tomorrow and today and tomorrow are just mental.

My list:
#FFA3
Barney
The Valeyard
CDaly

Barney because of alpha choice list thingy we've been doing since day 1
The Valeyard as a continuation of yesterday's suspicion and seemingly disinterest in the game.
CDaly for no exceptional reason, other than low post count.

Partyjungle would be a fourth choice for obvious reasons today but I just haven't had enough chance to go back through his previous posts to get a handle on it.