Arlene Foster and the RHI scandal

FrancieBrady

Jayop wrote: »

Ffs just look at the faces of the Unionist MLA's compared to the SF ones. Youth and vibrance vs old Grey men. Dinosaurs.

It's the north's version of unionism that has no future by the way because it is tied so closely to religious belief. A religious belief that is frankly inherently intolerant towards those who hold different opinions.

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

That is like saying does Republicanism need discarded because Sinn Fein had a poor election in 2016. It is one election, the DUP weren't prepared for it and Sinn Fein took advantage of it. The next election will see the DUP back with more seats.

SF have modernised republicanism, they have gone with the flow. The UUP show what happens when you try the same with Unionism. It patently doesn't have an update function as it is stuck firmly in the past.

I wouldn't be so sure the DUP will be back with more seats at all. It was almost stripped back to it's core support this time, which is, like it or not, a dying breed.

Next election will see DUP win again and gain more seats. The Unionist electorate will be out for blood so to speak. If Ian Paisley Jr is leader, I will vote for them. He has a good balanced approach about him and a very smart guy who can play the game.

Seth Brundle

Saw this in the humour section and thought it was good (hopefully not against the charter)...


https://twitter.com/EdSimpsonNI/status/837940650762985474

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

Next election will see DUP win again and gain more seats. The Unionist electorate will be out for blood so to speak. If Ian Paisley Jr is leader, I will vote for them. He has a good balanced approach about him and a very smart guy who can play the game.

Ian is bitter about them shafting his dad, he won't be a leader.

pragmatic1

A Little Pony wrote: »

If Sinn Fein can't become largest party after RHI and a crap leader in the DUP, then I'm not so sure. She will be gone soon enough, even if it is 6 months or a year, I don't see her lasting any longer than that. DUP will be delighted if they hold what they have and just solidify. All things considered its probably been an alright showing.

You're forgetting that SF represent the minority community in the north and only lost by a single seat. The demographics are changing in Northern Ireland and it ain't going backwards. It might swing slightly back in the next election, but the trajectory of politics in Northern Ireland is only heading in one inevitable direction and we all know it.

Sunny Disposition

Don't live in the North but I followed the election fairly closely. The DUP performance throughout was abysmal; arrogant, dismissive, bigoted, no way they can appeal to floating voters with that kind of behaviour or leader. Was watching Poots interviewed on BBC last night, if the likes of him and Foster are at the forefront you'd have to say Unionism is in trouble.
For many years people have been talking about Catholics favouring the union, but with DUP behaving as it has over the last year, and their politically disastrous position on gay marriage not to mention Brexit, I wonder if a certain amount of Protestants aren't going to turn in the other direction. Unionism desperately needs to adapt. How could a gay person, or someone with a gay family member, be comfortable with Foster as its leader? The lack of concern about a hard border from some elements is certain to alienate people in border constituencies too.
SF must be hoping Foster stays on, huge liability for unionism in general at this stage.

joseph brand

A Little Pony wrote: »

I don't think a woman can lead Unionism. Hope Arlene Foster stands down, get Ian Paisley Jr to be leader.

An old boys club you say? /pulls on pipe
She's not the most feminine looking woman in all fairness.

Leonard Hofstadter

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

For the first time, there isn't a Unionist majority in the assembly. That's significant. More significant is that the DUP lost their ability to raise POCs to block legislation like Gay Marriage, etc. Great stuff.

That's the best possible thing about these elections, they can no longer block stuff that not only the rest of Ireland, allows, but the rest of the UK allows as well. Hopefully the assembly will manage to get up and running and Northern Ireland will slowly be able to join the 21st century, no longer held back by this blatant abuse of the POC.

I'm so happy they won't be able to impose their bigoted homophobic backward views on top of everyone in the North any more - after all polls have shown that there is no substantial difference in support for things like equal marriage between North and South, so there is no logical reason why things like that can't be introduced now that the DUP (thankfully) can't use the POC.

They'll also no longer be able to block a more pragmatic approach to things like abortion as well, which could have massive implications South of the border (although I'd imagine that many on the 'green' side of the fence are just as implacably opposed to any kind of liberalisation of such laws). We could see some dramatic social changes here, which would be quite something given that the general trend in Western Democracies is going back on the progress that's been made over the past few decades with the ever increasing popularity of the far right.

FrancieBrady

captainspeed wrote: »

That's the best possible thing about these elections, they can no longer block stuff that not only the rest of Ireland, allows, but the rest of the UK allows as well. Hopefully the assembly will manage to get up and running and Northern Ireland will slowly be able to join the 21st century, no longer held back by this blatant abuse of the POC.

I'm so happy they won't be able to impose their bigoted homophobic backward views on top of everyone in the North any more - after all polls have shown that there is no substantial difference in support for things like equal marriage between North and South, so there is no logical reason why things like that can't be introduced now that the DUP (thankfully) can't use the POC.

They'll also no longer be able to block a more pragmatic approach to things like abortion as well, which could have massive implications South of the border (although I'd imagine that many on the 'green' side of the fence are just as implacably opposed to any kind of liberalisation of such laws). We could see some dramatic social changes here, which would be quite something given that the general trend in Western Democracies is going back on the progress that's been made over the past few decades with the ever increasing popularity of the far right.

There may very well be a swing back to unionism in the next election if they mobilise people like A Little Pony, who only seems to bother voting when it comes down to a lowest common denominator 'stop themuns' bunfight.

But it is a bot like an old person's decline, they may rally at times but the direction is emphatically downward.

A significant part of unionism has said, it doesn't want to respond to sectarian ranting and was open to voting across the traditional divide (for the SDLP)
If the DUP want that vote they will have to move into the modern age.

blanch152

pragmatic1 wrote: »

You're forgetting that SF represent the minority community in the north and only lost by a single seat. The demographics are changing in Northern Ireland and it ain't going backwards. It might swing slightly back in the next election, but the trajectory of politics in Northern Ireland is only heading in one inevitable direction and we all know it.

There is nothing inevitable about politics or even demographics.

flutered

A Little Pony wrote: »

Next election will see DUP win again and gain more seats. The Unionist electorate will be out for blood so to speak. If Ian Paisley Jr is leader, I will vote for them. He has a good balanced approach about him and a very smart guy who can play the game.

do they have the smarts and the will to take on the slick proven vote getting shinner party machine

flutered

A Little Pony wrote: »

The Assembly probably won't be up again for years, so all things considered it is irrelevant. Michelle O'Neil said she won't go into power sharing with Arlene Foster. Unionism needs to up its propaganda and get on the attack, less of the defensive. Destroy the lesser parties which have no chance of winning and elect a new leader of the DUP.

The DUP could elect a new leader in a few weeks, refuse to nominate and just go to another election and spark the Unionist electorate into light. I'd be very surprised if direct rule didn't come about.

did not the shinners say everything is up for negotiating

flutered

A Little Pony wrote: »

You have to use propaganda to get the message out and to inspire your core base. This election left so many Unionists like myself disillusioned. Sometimes you have to ignite the fire in the belly again. Hopefully this does it for Unionism.

it could well have the opposite effect, where have we seen a unionist fight back of any proportions in recent years, they seem to be getting a lesser and lesser share of the cake, at the same time doing damage to themselves which should be easily advoidable

arctictree

Could sinn fein now propose a member of the alliance party as first minister?

flutered

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ian is bitter about them shafting his dad, he won't be a leader.

true, look at the ringing vote of confidence he gave the retiring shinner guy a few weeks ago, after that they will not want him as leader

ancapailldorcha

flutered wrote: »

did not the shinners say everything is up for negotiating

flutered wrote: »

true, look at the ringing vote of confidence he gave the retiring shinner guy a few weeks ago, after that they will not want him as leader

Stop using the word "Shinner".

twinytwo

A Little Pony wrote: »

The Assembly won't get off the ground.

I think that would go a long way to show how bitter and backwards the DUP actually is.

The DUP owe it to the people of NI to make it work now, direct rule is something no one wants.

Foster should be thrown under the bus for the absolute disgrace she is.

Seth Brundle

twinytwo wrote: »

I think that would go a long way to show how bitter and backwards the DUP actually is.

The DUP owe it to the people of NI to make it work now, direct rule is something no one wants.

Foster should be thrown under the bus for the absolute disgrace she is.

The Brexit campaign showed their contempt for the electorate.
They have a responsibility to all voters but only do things when it suits people with the same twisted views as them.

P_1

Do the DUP have to be part of the government now? Based on the numbers a coalition of SF/SDLP/AP/UUP is possible but is there something in the rules that mean a certain percentage of each community has to be in the government?

FrancieBrady

P_1 wrote: »

Do the DUP have to be part of the government now? Based on the numbers a coalition of SF/SDLP/AP/UUP is possible but is there something in the rules that mean a certain percentage of each community has to be in the government?

Yes, the executive has to be cross community. There must be power sharing between the major parties.
Ministers are appointed using the D'Hondt system.

An executive cannot be form if either of the two major parties after an election refuse to take part.

arctictree

P_1 wrote: »

Do the DUP have to be part of the government now? Based on the numbers a coalition of SF/SDLP/AP/UUP is possible but is there something in the rules that mean a certain percentage of each community has to be in the government?

I don't think it works like that. The first minister is appointed by the largest party of the largest designation. I think the largest designation is still unionist (DUP/UUP/TUV/IU) but just by one seat.

FrancieBrady

Here is an outline of how it all works.

http://education.niassembly.gov.uk/post_16/the_assembly_and_executive

ancapailldorcha

FrancieBrady wrote: »

http://education.niassembly.gov.uk/post_16/the_assembly_and_executive

Don't just dump links here please.

awec

This post has been deleted.

FrancieBrady

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Don't just dump links here please.

apologies, the poster was looking for info on how the system works.

FrancieBrady

awec wrote: »

They'll still be able to use a PoC on things like gay marriage, abortion etc.

DUP have 28 seats and they will easily get the 2 extra needed from the TUV and UUP for PoCs for these matters unfortunately.

Can't changes to how POC's are used not now be made though. Unionism can no longer block that as the other parties are supportive of change.

ancapailldorcha

FrancieBrady wrote: »

apologies, the poster was looking for info on how the system works.

Apologies. Did not see the earlier post.

awec

This post has been deleted.

A Little Pony

flutered wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

You have to use propaganda to get the message out and to inspire your core base. This election left so many Unionists like myself disillusioned. Sometimes you have to ignite the fire in the belly again. Hopefully this does it for Unionism.

it could well have the opposite effect, where have we seen a unionist fight back of any proportions in recent years, they seem to be getting a lesser and lesser share of the cake, at the same time doing damage to themselves which should be easily advoidable

Unionism wasn't prepared for this election. We will be better prepared for the next one. But in truth we can all talk about POC and the executive and so on but it isn't going to get off the ground anyway in my opinion. Unless Sinn Fein was just lying to Nationalists about Arlene Foster being a red line for entering into the executive.

A period of direct rule is coming and the Assembly won't be up and running again for years. So in reality all we elected was the Tories ruling the place which for a conservative like me is fine but to others they won't like it.

A Little Pony

Seen some of the comments on the POC. The DUP can still use the POC but they need some members from the UUP or TUV. Basically two Unionists and they could block whatever they wanted. The system is laughable and I find it amazing why anyone actually supports it.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

Unionism wasn't prepared for this election. We will be better prepared for the next one. But in truth we can all talk about POC and the executive and so on but it isn't going to get off the ground anyway in my opinion. Unless Sinn Fein was just lying to Nationalists about Arlene Foster being a red line for entering into the executive.

A period of direct rule is coming and the Assembly won't be up and running again for years. So in reality all we elected was the Tories ruling the place which for a conservative like me is fine but to others they won't like it.

The Assembly will continue to run and has before. It is the 'Executive' that is the problem.

FrancieBrady

awec wrote: »

I don't think any party has proposed any change to the PoC concept, though I stand to be corrected.

The DUP did suggest scrapping it a few weeks ago but Sinn Fein refused.

The other parties want to reform it, not scrap it completely because as initially envisaged it has uses.

The Alliance dismissed Arlene's offer to scrap it as a publicity stunt.

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Unionism wasn't prepared for this election. We will be better prepared for the next one. But in truth we can all talk about POC and the executive and so on but it isn't going to get off the ground anyway in my opinion. Unless Sinn Fein was just lying to Nationalists about Arlene Foster being a red line for entering into the executive.

A period of direct rule is coming and the Assembly won't be up and running again for years. So in reality all we elected was the Tories ruling the place which for a conservative like me is fine but to others they won't like it.

The Assembly will continue to run and has before. It is the 'Executive' that is the problem.

If they are still getting paid, then they won't care about direct rule.

Anita Blow

A Little Pony wrote: »

flutered wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

You have to use propaganda to get the message out and to inspire your core base. This election left so many Unionists like myself disillusioned. Sometimes you have to ignite the fire in the belly again. Hopefully this does it for Unionism.

it could well have the opposite effect, where have we seen a unionist fight back of any proportions in recent years, they seem to be getting a lesser and lesser share of the cake, at the same time doing damage to themselves which should be easily advoidable

Unionism wasn't prepared for this election. We will be better prepared for the next one. But in truth we can all talk about POC and the executive and so on but it isn't going to get off the ground anyway in my opinion. Unless Sinn Fein was just lying to Nationalists about Arlene Foster being a red line for entering into the executive.

A period of direct rule is coming and the Assembly won't be up and running again for years. So in reality all we elected was the Tories ruling the place which for a conservative like me is fine but to others they won't like it.

Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people. 

A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.

FrancieBrady

Anita Blow wrote: »

Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people. 

A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.

Newton Emerson makes that point in an article in today's Irish Times.
SF playing a long game here and some would say it is running rings around the DUP's inability to change.

Interesting times.

blanch152

Anita Blow wrote: »

Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people. 

A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.

If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.

RicePat

blanch152 wrote: »

If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.

Good job it wont be then. Numerous studies have shown reunification would benefit the economy of the entire island.

Consonata

blanch152 wrote: »

If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.

Not if there is a United Ireland

Frankly though, if a UI were to come to pass, not only would it beneficial for the economy's on both sides of the border, but we would likely see a good chunk of EU support as a result to smooth out the change with investment into our economy and our infrastructure.

This all coming along with the news that Enda Kenny might be taking over from Tusk as President of the European Council. Who knew a Free Stater might help bring a United Ireland :pac:

FrancieBrady

The Irish government is clearly making it's case too.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/enda-kenny-calls-for-brexit-deal-to-include-united-ireland-provision-1.2986650

There is no doubt about a border poll if the UK pull the trigger on Art 50.

With possibly a year of Brexit effects to help make up minds.

FrancieBrady

I'd imagine a 'third' are prepared to say they want her gone. I would imagine it is more in reality.
Has to be the most spectacular election failure in Unionism ever.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/arlene-foster-faces-revolt-as-third-of-dup-mlas-want-her-to-step-aside-and-save-institutions-35504549.html

blanch152

RicePat wrote: »

Good job it wont be then. Numerous studies have shown reunification would benefit the economy of the entire island.

Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies".

Secondly, I prefer to use the term "unification" rather than "reunification" as the island has only ever been united under British rule.

Finally, taking on the basket-case economy of Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit situation where the UK could no longer subsidise it would break the economy of the South. The austerity post-2008 would be a cakewalk in comparison.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies".

Secondly, I prefer to use the term "unification" rather than "reunification" as the island has only ever been united under British rule.

Finally, taking on the basket-case economy of Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit situation where the UK could no longer subsidise it would break the economy of the South. The austerity post-2008 would be a cakewalk in comparison.

The last part is just as much an assumption as any other projection.
The reality is, nobody knows what the cost would be until it is properly assessed with all factors known.

Consonata

blanch152 wrote: »

Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies".

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unification-of-ireland-could-bring-in-36-5bn-in-eight-years-1.2435505

Political and economic unification of Ireland could potentially deliver a €35.6 billion boost in GDP for the island in the first eight years, according to a US study of reunification by two prominent academics.

The economic research, launched in New York, suggests economic unification could possibly deliver a more sizeable boost in economic output and incomes in the North, with a predicted 4-7.5 per cent long-term improvement in GDP.

The study, which involved a number of researchers led by Dr Kurt Hübner, director of the Institute for European Studies at the University of British Columbia, also highlighted that the Republic would see a more modest boost of between 0.7 to 1.2 per cent in GDP per capita.

hmmm.....

RicePat

blanch152 wrote: »

Very interesting that the word "independent" was missing between "numerous" and "studies".

Secondly, I prefer to use the term "unification" rather than "reunification" as the island has only ever been united under British rule.

Finally, taking on the basket-case economy of Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit situation where the UK could no longer subsidise it would break the economy of the South. The austerity post-2008 would be a cakewalk in comparison.

Fine. INDEPENDENT studies. At least two I can think of, and a pretty interesting book on the topic written by a former Labour special advisor to the north ( https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/a-united-ireland ) , all say youre wrong.

The main reason the north is a basket case is because of partition, a situation that would be remedied with reunification. This is marked out clearly in both INDEPENDENT studies.

Have a gander yourself

http://politicaleconomy.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/MB-unity.pdf The Economic Case for Irish Unity by Michael Burke ( Economic consultant and former senior international economist at Citibank in London) presented to the European parliament in December.

http://prcg.com/modeling-irish-unification/report.pdf Modelling Irish Unification (lack of "re" in the title should please you) by Dr. Kurt Hubner (professor at the Political Science Department of University of
British Columbia and holder of the Jean Monnet Chair for European Integration and Global Political Economy, specialising in European integration in the context of the global political economy) and his research team, modelling system devised by Dr. Renger Van Nieuwkoop (Lecturer and researcher at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, Director and Founder Modelworks, Thun, specialising in advanced applied computational equilibrium
modeling.)

Just in case you were worried about their independence

A Little Pony

blanch152 wrote: »

Anita Blow wrote: »

Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people. 

A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.

If Brexit is going to be that bad, then the South is going to suffer badly too, and won't be interested in adding another millstone to the economy.

The Southern establishment don't want anything to do with the two states merging.

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

The Southern establishment don't want anything to do with the two states merging.

Course not, they have cosy power pendulum to protect but the fact is they signed up to it in the GFA and as a poll becomes an ever increasing likelihood in the north they will simply have to deal with the issue and begin making plans.

Jayop

A Little Pony wrote: »

The Southern establishment don't want anything to do with the two states merging.

FG might not. FF would though.

FrancieBrady

If FG or FF for that matter can be seen as the leaders on this or even co-leaders, they will go for it bald headed, make no mistake.

I always fancied a FF-SF coalition to be the one actually.

Jayop

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If FG or FF for that matter can be seen as the leaders on this or even co-leaders, they will go for it bald headed, make no mistake.

I always fancied a FF-SF coalition to be the one actually.

It's certainly the strongest possibility. I can see SF make more ground up at the next election in the south if that happens and FF are the biggest party then you really could see that coalition happening.

Consonata

Jayop wrote: »

It's certainly the strongest possibility. I can see SF make more ground up at the next election in the south if that happens and FF are the biggest party then you really could see that coalition happening.

If the SF result in the north has any sway in the south, a FF/SF coalition seems unavoidable.