Arlene Foster and the RHI scandal

Jayop

Consonata wrote: »

If the SF result in the north has any sway in the south, a FF/SF coalition seems unavoidable.

All depends on how bullish the parties are prior to an election. I think this current arrangement is a disaster but should the media force Martin's hand into saying if he will or will not go into coalition with SF post election it could cause problems.

Havockk

A Little Pony wrote: »

Unionism wasn't prepared for this election. We will be better prepared for the next one. But in truth we can all talk about POC and the executive and so on but it isn't going to get off the ground anyway in my opinion. Unless Sinn Fein was just lying to Nationalists about Arlene Foster being a red line for entering into the executive.

A period of direct rule is coming and the Assembly won't be up and running again for years. So in reality all we elected was the Tories ruling the place which for a conservative like me is fine but to others they won't like it.

Ironically enough, Foster actually does pose a problem for SF now. That problem being that I would imagine that currently no one in SF actually want her to step down or resign as it would be much more beneficial for them to have an inept leader at the helm of the DUP.

Jayop

Havockk wrote: »

Ironically enough, Foster actually does pose a problem for SF now. That problem being that I would imagine that currently no one in SF actually want her to step down or resign as it would be much more beneficial for them to have an inept leader at the helm of the DUP.

I dunno. They've backed themselves into a bit of a corner on it. While the end goal could be benefited by direct rule, it's a huge gamble as if people blame them for it and it causes massive austerity then they could be punished.

FrancieBrady

Jayop wrote: »

I dunno. They've backed themselves into a bit of a corner on it. While the end goal could be benefited by direct rule, it's a huge gamble as if people blame them for it and it causes massive austerity then they could be punished.

The DUP's attempt to blame SF for collapsing the executive didn't go too well.

The fact is Arlene through a succession of events revealed her spots from the get go. Nobody seems able to work with her. She hasnt made any attempt to deal with her past and fell back on sectarian bitter rethoric too often. That might appeal to a certain kind of unionist but nobody else is gonna listen to that. And the DUP don't seem to have much alternative in leadership material in fairness. Paisley jun is just getting his own back on them by criticising.

blanch152

Jayop wrote: »

It's certainly the strongest possibility. I can see SF make more ground up at the next election in the south if that happens and FF are the biggest party then you really could see that coalition happening.

It is the most likely outcome at the moment.

If FG lose even one seat in the election, the new leader can say to all the others that they have lost in two successive elections and it is time for others to step up.

A Little Pony

It doesn't happen for Sinn Fein in Southern elections. They never get close to government. Proper government, not some bitch ass attempt to seem relevant.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

It doesn't happen for Sinn Fein in Southern elections. They never get close to government. Proper government, not some bitch ass attempt to seem relevant.

That really is classic head in the sand stuff. If unionism in general adopts that delusion and ignores the upward trajectory in both jurisdictions then it is doomed.

When the chips were down we saw who's vote came out. That IMO will happen again around the votes for unification.

Jayop

A Little Pony wrote: »

It doesn't happen for Sinn Fein in Southern elections. They never get close to government. Proper government, not some bitch ass attempt to seem relevant.

lol, aye ok.

2016
23/158 seats 14.56%

2011
14/166 seats 8.43%

2007
4/166 seats 2.41%

2002
5/166 seats 3.01%

1997
1/166 seats = 0.60%


See that percentage increase. The same thing was happening in the north and you blindly said that it would never translate to them getting close to a majority. We'll guess what, that day has come in NI where the nationalists have a majority and by the looks of the election results in the South, it's only so long before FFG will be unable to avoid going into power with them too.

SF are now polling at around 23% and that number fits in nicely with the numbers above and the steady increase.

/ <that's a line graph showing you what I mean.

Tiocfaidh ár lá

Irishweather

Nationalists don't have a majority at 44%.

Irishweather

Anita Blow wrote: »

Are you sure about that? The next election will be in a post-brexit NI. While none of us know how that will eventually turn out, it's likely that NI specifically will not fare well from brexit. The DUP will not be able to argue their way out of that one should the economy turn sour, considering it's themselves which pushed for Brexit knowing the damage it would do to their people. 

A period of direct rule would be a further blow to unionism. The Conservatives will no doubt push through cuts to NI's budget in the coming years, and the likes of SF can use this as a bat to beat unionism with.

The poorer Republic of Ireland can offer nothing that would be superior to the economic benefit that comes out of being an integral part of the United Kingdom.

Irishweather

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Newton Emerson makes that point in an article in today's Irish Times.
SF playing a long game here and some would say it is running rings around the DUP's inability to change.

Interesting times.

Might not get what you want though.

FrancieBrady

Irishweather wrote: »

Might not get what you want though.

Could you elaborate?
I'm not sure if a series of one liners constitutes discussion.

Jayop

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Could you elaborate?
I'm not sure if a series of one liners constitutes discussion.

I was going to reply to the first one when I seen the next few I knew it was just another Pony poster with absolutely no substance beyond rubbish posts like those few.

L1011

Irishweather wrote: »

The poorer Republic of Ireland can offer nothing that would be superior to the economic benefit that comes out of being an integral part of the United Kingdom.

The "integral"ness of NIs status in the UK is extremely doubtful - and further hampered by them electing parties who never enter government even if they turn up at all.

As goes being a member of an isolationist UK with a likely single party government for some time to come vs being in the EU via any means - I think I know which one is more likely to be viable. No interest in funding it, though.

blanch152

RicePat wrote: »

Fine. INDEPENDENT studies. At least two I can think of, and a pretty interesting book on the topic written by a former Labour special advisor to the north ( https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/a-united-ireland ) , all say youre wrong.

The main reason the north is a basket case is because of partition, a situation that would be remedied with reunification. This is marked out clearly in both INDEPENDENT studies.

Have a gander yourself

http://politicaleconomy.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/MB-unity.pdf The Economic Case for Irish Unity by Michael Burke ( Economic consultant and former senior international economist at Citibank in London) presented to the European parliament in December.

http://prcg.com/modeling-irish-unification/report.pdf Modelling Irish Unification (lack of "re" in the title should please you) by Dr. Kurt Hubner (professor at the Political Science Department of University of
British Columbia and holder of the Jean Monnet Chair for European Integration and Global Political Economy, specialising in European integration in the context of the global political economy) and his research team, modelling system devised by Dr. Renger Van Nieuwkoop (Lecturer and researcher at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, Director and Founder Modelworks, Thun, specialising in advanced applied computational equilibrium
modeling.)

Just in case you were worried about their independence

A quick google search shows the link behind all of these reports:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knights_of_the_Red_Branch_Inc

Hardly independent.

RicePat

blanch152 wrote: »

A quick google search shows the link behind all of these reports:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knights_of_the_Red_Branch_Inc

Hardly independent.

From your own link

"The study was commissioned by K[nights of the].R[ed].B[ranch Inc]., a San Francisco Bay area–based nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education."

Yeah they sound fierce biased.

So rather than actually read the reports you spent your time trying to dig up dirt on the group that commissioned one of the reports (even though that would still have little bearing on the result). Yup, that pretty much sums up your contributions here

blanch152

RicePat wrote: »

From your own link

"The study was commissioned by K[nights of the].R[ed].B[ranch Inc]., a San Francisco Bay area–based nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education."

Yeah they sound fierce biased.

So rather than actually read the reports you spent your time trying to dig up dirt on the group that commissioned one of the reports (even though that would still have little bearing on the result). Yup, that pretty much sums up your contributions here

I have read them before and read all about the Knights of the Red Branch before. It is effectively a fund-raising mechanism for SF in the USA.

One of the biggest issues in the US at the moment in the research area is the concept of researchers for hire who will deliver the result you want from "independent" research. In fact, it isn't even at the moment, remember all those studies funded by cigarette companies that said smoking doesn't cause cancer.

I think you will find very few people willing to take at face value a study funded by a SF-linked organisation that says a united Ireland is economically beneficial.

Jayop

But yet you're willing to swallow any old rubbish that says it isn't. Go figure.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I have read them before and read all about the Knights of the Red Branch before. It is effectively a fund-raising mechanism for SF in the USA.

One of the biggest issues in the US at the moment in the research area is the concept of researchers for hire who will deliver the result you want from "independent" research. In fact, it isn't even at the moment, remember all those studies funded by cigarette companies that said smoking doesn't cause cancer.

I think you will find very few people willing to take at face value a study funded by a SF-linked organisation that says a united Ireland is economically beneficial.

You do know that whenever a report/thesis is published it is paid for by somebody?
I don't doubt that there are problems with the report but there is with any so far.

The fact is, it will not become clear what the economic implications are, good or bad, until all the stakeholders are being honest about what it costs at the moment and a proper discussion of the costs ahead are held.

NIMAN

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Newton Emerson makes that point in an article in today's Irish Times.
SF playing a long game here and some would say it is running rings around the DUP's inability to change.

Interesting times.

Dogs in the street can see this now, its been obvious for ages.

Thing is, unionism by its actions (or inaction) is actually aiding SF now.

Digging in and shouting 'no surrender' will only get you so far.

RicePat

blanch152 wrote: »

I have read them before and read all about the Knights of the Red Branch before. It is effectively a fund-raising mechanism for SF in the USA.

One of the biggest issues in the US at the moment in the research area is the concept of researchers for hire who will deliver the result you want from "independent" research. In fact, it isn't even at the moment, remember all those studies funded by cigarette companies that said smoking doesn't cause cancer.

I think you will find very few people willing to take at face value a study funded by a SF-linked organisation that says a united Ireland is economically beneficial.

Interesting that you associate any even vaguely Irish american organisation as being Sinn Féin. Your own link describes them as "a San Francisco Bay area–based nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education."

The smoking analogy was particularly weak. Nobody is being asked to take them at face value. They are being asked to read them and discuss. You have presented absolutely nothing that would question the independence of validity of either report.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You do know that whenever a report/thesis is published it is paid for by somebody?
I don't doubt that there are problems with the report but there is with any so far.

.

Grand, you should keep smoking too, based on the health benefits identified by the studies funded by cigarette companies.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Grand, you should keep smoking too, based on the health benefits identified by the studies funded by cigarette companies.

So lets see your 'independent' reports/analysis.
Only fair that they be up for review too.

*ps I did say I recognise that there are problem areas in the report btw.

A Little Pony

Jayop wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

It doesn't happen for Sinn Fein in Southern elections. They never get close to government. Proper government, not some bitch ass attempt to seem relevant.

lol, aye ok.

2016
23/158 seats 14.56%

2011
14/166 seats 8.43%

2007
4/166 seats 2.41%

2002
5/166 seats 3.01%

1997
1/166 seats = 0.60%


See that percentage increase. The same thing was happening in the north and you blindly said that it would never translate to them getting close to a majority. We'll guess what, that day has come in NI where the nationalists have a majority and by the looks of the election results in the South, it's only so long before FFG will be unable to avoid going into power with them too.

SF are now polling at around 23% and that number fits in nicely with the numbers above and the steady increase.

/  
Tiocfaidh ár lá

Nationalism doesn't have a majority. Too many deluding themselves over the election. I have already forgotten about it generally. Most know the DUP didn't prepare for it and the Unionist people didn't bother to get out to vote, including myself. Next time will be different.

A Little Pony

blanch152 wrote: »

RicePat wrote: »

From your own link

"The study was commissioned by K[nights of the].R[ed].B[ranch Inc]., a San Francisco Bay area–based nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education."

Yeah they sound fierce biased.

So rather than actually read the reports you spent your time trying to dig up dirt on the group that commissioned one of the reports (even though that would still have little bearing on the result). Yup, that pretty much sums up your contributions here

I have read them before and read all about the Knights of the Red Branch before. It is effectively a fund-raising mechanism for SF in the USA.

One of the biggest issues in the US at the moment in the research area is the concept of researchers for hire who will deliver the result you want from "independent" research. In fact, it isn't even at the moment, remember all those studies funded by cigarette companies that said smoking doesn't cause cancer.

I think you will find very few people willing to take at face value a study funded by a SF-linked organisation that says a united Ireland is economically beneficial.

Yep. Clearly a biased report full of absolute nonsense. I am surprised some fell for it.

RicePat

blanch152 wrote: »

Grand, you should keep smoking too, based on the health benefits identified by the studies funded by cigarette companies.

Where are these studies? Show me a recent study that says smoking is good for you?

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

Yep. Clearly a biased report full of absolute nonsense. I am surprised some fell for it.

Have you read ANY of them?

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

Nationalism doesn't have a majority. Too many deluding themselves over the election. I have already forgotten about it generally. Most know the DUP didn't prepare for it and the Unionist people didn't bother to get out to vote, including myself. Next time will be different.

He says as he continues posting in a thread about it five days after the election took place

A Little Pony

RicePat wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Nationalism doesn't have a majority. Too many deluding themselves over the election. I have already forgotten about it generally. Most know the DUP didn't prepare for it and the Unionist people didn't bother to get out to vote, including myself. Next time will be different.

He says as he continues posting in a thread about it five days after the election took place

Nationalists should enjoy the little victory over Protestants right now but it won't last. The amount of people I have spoken to who didn't vote saying to me they will vote next time is incredible.

A Little Pony

RicePat wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Yep. Clearly a biased report full of absolute nonsense. I am surprised some fell for it.

Have you read ANY of them?

Go read the statement from the Irish politician on the wikipedia page who said the ROI simply can't afford Northern Ireland. He said on live TV. I saw him saying it at the time.

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

Go read the statement from the Irish politician on the wikipedia page who said the ROI simply can't afford Northern Ireland. He said on live TV. I saw him saying it at the time.

Oh wow, the ill considered opinion of one unremarkable politician with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. That's definitely worth more than the researched conclusions of economists and the leading experts in the field of european integration and modelling systems :rolleyes:

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

Nationalists should enjoy the little victory over Protestants right now but it won't last. The amount of people I have spoken to who didn't vote saying to me they will vote next time is incredible.

THERE IT IS! There's your problem right there. You tried your best but you just couldnt help but sectarianise it.

This election was a victory of progressive forces over the regressive, religious fundamentalist, racist, bigoted, homophobic, anti-women forces of the DUP. The numbers alone show that plenty of people of all religious persuasions and none voted to give the DUP the kick in the teeth it badly needed.

Your attitude is disgusting

Cortina_MK_IV

A Little Pony wrote: »

Nationalists should enjoy the little victory over Protestants right now but it won't last. The amount of people I have spoken to who didn't vote saying to me they will vote next time is incredible.

Did you count them? Was it confined to one area or were you on tour?

Consonata

Go read the statement from the Irish politician..

Uh, what Irish politician?

on the wikipedia page

What wikipedia page?

who said the ROI simply can't afford Northern Ireland. He said on live TV. I saw him saying it at the time.

This seems like a lot of he said she said.

FrancieBrady

Remarkable that unionists are unashamedly still trying to sectarianise the north.
It like there is nowhere left to go.
Arlene did it as the central plank of her election and it failed. Yet we have more of it to look forward too.

Jayop

Amazing that statement from Pony there tbh, breathtaking sectarianism. The mask slipped and that's for sure.

It wasn't a "nationalist victory over Protestantism".

A Little Pony

RicePat wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Nationalists should enjoy the little victory over Protestants right now but it won't last. The amount of people I have spoken to who didn't vote saying to me they will vote next time is incredible.

THERE IT IS! There's your problem right there. You tried your best but you just couldnt help but sectarianise it.  

This election was a victory of progressive forces over the regressive, religious fundamentalist, racist, bigoted, homophobic, anti-women forces of the DUP.  The numbers alone show that plenty of people of all religious persuasions and none voted to give the DUP the kick in the teeth it badly needed.

Your attitude is disgusting

Maybe you have been living in a bubble but go read the history of Ulster. That is what this place is like, it is about the land, territory, progressiveness vs Conservationism. A progressive liberal way of life vs a rural traditional way of life, Republican vs Unionist, Protestant vs Catholic. And I say all that with Catholic family members. 

And I make no apologies as an Ulster conservative over which side I am. I love the Union, I can make no apology for that either. It is in my interests to defend it and cherish it until the day I die.

listermint

A Little Pony wrote: »

Maybe you have been living in a bubble but go read the history of Ulster. That is what this place is like, it is about the land, territory, progressiveness vs Conservationism. A progressive liberal way of life vs a rural traditional way of life, Republican vs Unionist, Protestant vs Catholic. And I say all that with Catholic family members. 

And I make no apologies as an Ulster conservative over which side I am. I love the Union, I can make no apology for that either. It is in my interests to defend it and cherish it until the day I die.

Well thankfully the majority of people don't share your sentiments

Especially your youngers.

And we can all rejoice in that fact

A Little Pony

listermint wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Maybe you have been living in a bubble but go read the history of Ulster. That is what this place is like, it is about the land, territory, progressiveness vs Conservationism. A progressive liberal way of life vs a rural traditional way of life, Republican vs Unionist, Protestant vs Catholic. And I say all that with Catholic family members. 

And I make no apologies as an Ulster conservative over which side I am. I love the Union, I can make no apology for that either. It is in my interests to defend it and cherish it until the day I die.

Well thankfully the majority of people don't share your sentiments

Especially your youngers.

And we can all rejoice in that fact

Im 27. I can't change my views on the Union. It is just part of me.

listermint

A Little Pony wrote: »

Im 27. I can't change my views on the Union. It is just part of me.

No one asked you to change.

But most people don't share your views. They are narrow . Not very worldy and frankly don't fit in with a modern democracy. But thats the point democracy will Syphon them off into the ether

A Little Pony

listermint wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Im 27. I can't change my views on the Union. It is just part of me.

No one asked you to change.

But most people don't share your views. They are narrow . Not very worldy and frankly don't fit in with a modern democracy. But thats the point democracy will Syphon them off into the ether

The majority support the Union. So it isn't some fringe view at all. Please don't try and spread fake news.

listermint

A Little Pony wrote: »

The majority support the Union. So it isn't some fringe view at all. Please don't try and spread fake news.

Okay, we've been here before .

<snip>

I won't use the term I think you know the 2 words well

A Little Pony

listermint wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

The majority support the Union. So it isn't some fringe view at all. Please don't try and spread fake news.

Okay, we've been here before .

<snip>

I won't use the term I think you know the 2 words well

So what is it then? Its misinformation at best to anyone looking in. Unionism is not a fringe view in Northern Ireland. Its the most widely held view regarding the constitutional question on the state.

listermint

A Little Pony wrote: »

So what is it then? Its misinformation at best to anyone looking in. Unionism is not a fringe view in Northern Ireland. Its the most widely held view regarding the constitutional question on the state.

It's not but continue on.

Why? Because you haven't asked the people .

But I'm sure you know everyone on the island as you've asserted . Many many people so many people.

A Little Pony

listermint wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

So what is it then? Its misinformation at best to anyone looking in. Unionism is not a fringe view in Northern Ireland. Its the most widely held view regarding the constitutional question on the state.

It's not but continue on.

Why? Because you haven't asked the people .

But I'm sure you know everyone on the island as you've asserted .  Many many people so many people.

Call a border poll then. But as see from nearly every poll conducted on it it remains majority Union support. But I have no issue with a border poll.

listermint

A Little Pony wrote: »

Call a border poll then. But as see from nearly every poll conducted on it it remains majority Union support. But I have no issue with a border poll.

Neither do i.

Get it going but that's for another thread. So not for here.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

Call a border poll then. But as see from nearly every poll conducted on it it remains majority Union support. But I have no issue with a border poll.

Will that be fought by unionism on a sectarian 'Nationalists against Protestant' basis?

Jamiekelly

A Little Pony wrote: »

Im 27. I can't change my views on the Union. It is just part of me.

Doesn't seem to be the part that does the thinking.

johnnyskeleton

A Little Pony wrote: »

The majority support the Union. So it isn't some fringe view at all. Please don't try and spread fake news.

Mod Note:

If you disagree with another poster such that you view their comment as "fake news", please demonstrate why they are incorrect. It is not sufficient to simply label someone else's view as "fake news" in a glib manner.

FrancieBrady

It is a pretty momentous change in the order of things. And one of those incremental changes that cannot be reversed.
Will unionism forgive Arlene and stop the men in grey suits? That too will be significant.

It is not so many years since the DUP was asserting that it would never go into power with Sinn Féin/IRA. But even before the votes were counted last Friday, Arlene was calling for a return to civility and for her party and Sinn Féin to re-establish the institutions.

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/denis-bradley-arlene-foster-s-sneer-is-what-did-the-damage-1.3001190