Arlene Foster and the RHI scandal

FrancieBrady

munsterlegend wrote: »

While both the UUP and SDLP are not as hardcore on the constitutional issue, I would foresee any such merger as premature. It is still a major dividing line and the alliance party are proof as to how difficulty it is to prosper in the neutral position. People would continue to vote in fear for the DUP/SF and maybe even in greater numbers. Unionism is worried given the tories care about England and no where else. Maybe Scotland to some extent as it has some value.

I agree, I think the stars have some aligning to do yet before Jayop's scenario could happen.

Personally, I think a change of government might be a good thing in NI, for change sake. People should be shown that there is a possibility of doing things differently.
While I welcome the UUP's move to a more moderate engagement I don't think the leopard has fully changed it's spots. But they are well able to co-govern, as are the SDLP and the Alliance.

Jayop

Ach now it's pie in the sky stuff but I just thought it was an interesting hypothesis. In an ideal world it would be governed on policies more than green or orange as the main campaign issue. The campaign the DUP are running now is as negative as you could imagine. Vote for us or SF, not that it matters which Unionist party you vote for because it'll have no determination on whether SF get returned or not.

FrancieBrady

Jayop wrote: »

Ach now it's pie in the sky stuff but I just thought it was an interesting hypothesis. In an ideal world it would be governed on policies more than green or orange as the main campaign issue. The campaign the DUP are running now is as negative as you could imagine. Vote for us or SF, not that it matters which Unionist party you vote for because it'll have no determination on whether SF get returned or not.

My only hope for this election is that Arlene's career is ended, in my opinion, she is more toxic in her short term than Robinson before her.
Only by that happening, and happening again and again if the DUP install toxic, old style Unionist bigot leaders, will we see any change.

Jayop

Nah she won't be gone unless they get decimated. She's going to be reelected for sure.

Also, looking at the tweets from some of their young candidates they don't seem any less dinosaurs. Their only issue that they seem to be campaigning on is themmuns.

FrancieBrady

Jayop wrote: »

Nah she won't be gone unless they get decimated. She's going to be reelected for sure.

Also, looking at the tweets from some of their young candidates they don't seem any less dinosaurs. Their only issue that they seem to be campaigning on is themmuns.

Depends on her own vote and the overall DUP performance.
It's what happens after that will be interesting.

Stars and Stripes

Jayop wrote: »

Ach now it's pie in the sky stuff but I just thought it was an interesting hypothesis. In an ideal world it would be governed on policies more than green or orange as the main campaign issue. The campaign the DUP are running now is as negative as you could imagine. Vote for us or SF, not that it matters which Unionist party you vote for because it'll have no determination on whether SF get returned or not.

I can see SF's vote dropping slightly, they have made a mess of there involvement and been shown up to be too appeasing to the DUP. Michelle O'Neill may give them a bounce but I think a lot of people must be fed up of their poor performance. And down here they are largely stagnant with Adams as leader even if the present Dail govt falls.

Jayop

Stars and Stripes wrote: »

I can see SF's vote dropping slightly, they have made a mess of there involvement and been shown up to be too appeasing to the DUP. Michelle O'Neill may give them a bounce but I think a lot of people must be fed up of their poor performance. And down here they are largely stagnant with Adams as leader even if the present Dail govt falls.

Grown exponentially every year since Adams came to the Dail. Another myth debunked.

And how did they appease the DUP by bringing down the government? That's a new one.

FrancieBrady

I think SF could lose some votes too. Simply because they are a government party.
Brexit will re-energise the norths politics though. I think they have picked a new leader at the right time.

Mr.Nice Guy

I think the results will be quite similar to the previous election. I believe a lot of voters will stay at home and I think that's going to hurt nationalist parties more than unionists. Seems to be massive apathy towards politicians.

DUP voters seem to care most about keeping SF from being the largest party rather than having accountable politicians representing them. This election will show that little has changed over the RHI scandal. I really hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

FrancieBrady

Last night's Nolan debate would not give you any hope of 'change' ending with a belligerent shouting match with an almost postal DUP audience member trying to shout down an appeal for an Irish language act (which Scotland and Wales have for their indigenous languages).
It soon descended into NEVER NEVER NEVERland with the DUP making the ridiculous point that if they gave way on this request they would have to give way on every single other request and attempting to drag the conversation back into one about the conflict/war.

FrancieBrady

Shocks continue in a shocking story.

https://audioboom.com/posts/5613660-breaking-news-the-nolan-show-has-the-full-list-of-successful-applicants-to-the-rhi-scheme-nolanrhi

A Little Pony

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think the results will be quite similar to the previous election. I believe a lot of voters will stay at home and I think that's going to hurt nationalist parties more than unionists. Seems to be massive apathy towards politicians.

DUP voters seem to care most about keeping SF from being the largest party rather than having accountable politicians representing them. This election will show that little has changed over the RHI scandal. I really hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

I think DUP will increase the seats they get.Simply because of Mike Nesbitt comments. I think the opposite is going to happen, Sinn Fein will probably lose the odd seat. If the Irish language act wasn't brought up and focused solely on the RHI debacle, then maybe the DUP would have lost a few seats.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

I think DUP will increase the seats they get.Simply because of Mike Nesbitt comments. I think the opposite is going to happen, Sinn Fein will probably lose the odd seat. If the Irish language act wasn't brought up and focused solely on the RHI debacle, then maybe the DUP would have lost a few seats.

The release of the RHI details will bring the focus back on it very quickly I suspect.
Not only does it look like a massive giveaway of public money, it now looks like their was very healthy fraud going on too.

Jayop

A Little Pony wrote: »

I think DUP will increase the seats they get.Simply because of Mike Nesbitt comments. I think the opposite is going to happen, Sinn Fein will probably lose the odd seat. If the Irish language act wasn't brought up and focused solely on the RHI debacle, then maybe the DUP would have lost a few seats.

One thinks the heart is ruling the head there.

A Little Pony

Jayop wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

I think DUP will increase the seats they get.Simply because of Mike Nesbitt comments. I think the opposite is going to happen, Sinn Fein will probably lose the odd seat. If the Irish language act wasn't brought up and focused solely on the RHI debacle, then maybe the DUP would have lost a few seats.

One thinks the heart is ruling the head there.

Im not voting, so doesn't bother me. I know the DUP will win the election. Regarding RHI, of course it is dodgy but I don't see a dodgy boiler scheme making much difference. The election imo has come too early for UUP and SDLP.

Seth Brundle

A Little Pony wrote: »

Im not voting, so doesn't bother me. I know the DUP will win the election. Regarding RHI, of course it is dodgy but I don't see a dodgy boiler scheme making much difference. The election imo has come too early for UUP and SDLP.

If You don't vote then you will have no right to complain about who does eventually get elected.

blanch152

Jayop wrote: »

Unionists are funny, especially those who post on here. In one post they tell you that nationalists don't want a UI and so many of them now identify as British, on the other hand they're terrified of a border poll. Why would you be so afraid of something you seem so utterly convinced would fail?? It's strange in the extreme.

I think 60% would be far too big a number. I honestly don't see why 51% in a series of polls shouldn't trigger a vote.

To secure such a change, a simple majority just isn't enough to secure the necessary widespread support. Look at the way the small majority in favour of Brexit is convulsing the UK.

No, to ensure a united Ireland can be a success, you would need 60% to be supporting it.

FrancieBrady

kbannon wrote: »

If You don't vote then you will have no right to complain about who does eventually get elected.

Effectively, it is a vote for the winners. Pretty pointless all those who died to ensure he had a vote too.
I personally would favour a spell in jail for those who can't be bothered voting.

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

kbannon wrote: »

If You don't vote then you will have no right to complain about who does eventually get elected.

Effectively, it is a vote for the winners. Pretty pointless all those who died to ensure he had a vote too.
I personally would favour a spell in jail for those who can't be bothered voting.

lol. If I had to vote, it would be Unionist. DUP winning doesn't bother me that much even if the leader isn't great.

Jayop

blanch152 wrote: »

To secure such a change, a simple majority just isn't enough to secure the necessary widespread support. Look at the way the small majority in favour of Brexit is convulsing the UK.

No, to ensure a united Ireland can be a success, you would need 60% to be supporting it.

Fortunately for democracy then that the Gfa has allowed for nothing more than a simple majority.

Mr.Nice Guy

I saw a few news outlets today covering a survey by the Electoral Reform Society that shows how entrenched the tribal politics are. They used data from more than 4,000 voters questioned after the last election and found that only 4% of Catholics would give their first vote to a unionist party, and only 2% of Protestants would give a first vote to a nationalist party. Also, out of all preferences by Catholics, only 8% go to unionist parties; out of all preferences by Protestants, only 6% go to nationalist parties.

That suggests to me not only is their little prospect for a 'new type' of politics, but that there won't be any change for several decades.

Jayop

They won't vote for a Unionist or nationalist party but there is scope for a new Alliance type party imo.

FrancieBrady

The interesting stuff happens if Arlene is still the leader. Will SF go into an executive with them?
What do the two governments do then.

RicePat

Anyone see the Leaders' Debate last night? Nobody really stood out but arlene was particularly woeful. Her total contempt for the public was made plain when she told outright lies about the whole RHI thing.

Jayop

Will still be the biggest party sadly. Sdlp and uup left it too late to make a pact of sorts.

RicePat

Jayop wrote: »

Will still be the biggest party sadly. Sdlp and uup left it too late to make a pact of sorts.

I dont doubt it, which will, frankly, be a terrible indictment of the unionist community in the north.

Doubt a pact could have saved either of them though, particularly not the SDLP. Their biggest problem is that, as a party, they dont even know what they stand for any more. They are split on numerous issues, hold almost counteracting party policies (where they have policies to speak of) and are notorious for flip flopping on any even semi controversial issue.

FrancieBrady

Latest poll I think:


DUP 26.3% (-2.9% v 2016)
SF 25.3% (+1.2%)
UUP 13.9% (+1.2%)
SDLP 12.2% (+0.2%)
Alliance 9.5% (+2.5%)
TUV 4.4% (+1%)
Green 3.4% (+1%)
PBP 2.4% (+0.4)


Unfortunately I don't think this is gonna be a suprise in a Brexit or Trump way.

It will all come down to the size of Arlene's endorsement and how arrogant that allows her and the DUP to be.

RicePat

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Latest poll I think:


DUP 26.3% (-2.9% v 2016)
SF 25.3% (+1.2%)
UUP 13.9% (+1.2%)
SDLP 12.2% (+0.2%)
Alliance 9.5% (+2.5%)
TUV 4.4% (+1%)
Green 3.4% (+1%)
PBP 2.4% (+0.4)


Unfortunately I don't think this is gonna be a suprise in a Brexit or Trump way.

It will all come down to the size of Arlene's endorsement and how arrogant that allows her and the DUP to be.

Even were SF slightly ahead in terms of percentage, it probably still wouldnt get them ahead of the DUP in terms of seats.
I always take these polls with a pinch of salt but less than a 3% drop for the DUP given the stunts they have been pulling over the past number of years shows just how well their "project fear" sectarianising policy is playing with certain sections. Hugely disheartening.

A Little Pony

RicePat wrote: »

Jayop wrote: »

Will still be the biggest party sadly. Sdlp and uup left it too late to make a pact of sorts.

I dont doubt it, which will, frankly, be a terrible indictment of the unionist community in the north.

Doubt a pact could have saved either of them though, particularly not the SDLP. Their biggest problem is that, as a party, they dont even know what they stand for any more. They are split on numerous issues, hold almost counteracting party policies (where they have policies to speak of) and are notorious for flip flopping on any even semi controversial issue.

Many of us aren't fans of the DUP within the Unionist community but Sinn Fein are a nightmare. So we stick together, we have been doing that for hundreds of years as a people.

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

Many of us aren't fans of the DUP within the Unionist community but Sinn Fein are a nightmare. So we stick together, we have been doing that for hundreds of years as a people.

Yeah, bloody nightmare, with their gay rights and leprechaun language. What next? Equality for women? Or Muslims?!? AHHHH

This is exactly the sort of tribalistic attitude that prevents the north from progressing beyond orange and green politics.

FrancieBrady

To a large extent it's the two main Unionist parties that are still behind the barricades, but pelting bile at each other. The DUP are petrified of losing power and any eating into their vote will have an effect. Arlene's days are numbered and she knows it. Last night being a case in point.

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

To a large extent it's the two main Unionist parties that are still behind the barricades, but pelting bile at each other. The DUP are petrified of losing power and any eating into their vote will have an effect. Arlene's days are numbered and she knows it. Last night being a case in point.

So is Michelle O'Neil because Direct rule is coming. Thankfully! Get rid of this god awful system.

A Little Pony

RicePat wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Many of us aren't fans of the DUP within the Unionist community but Sinn Fein are a nightmare. So we stick together, we have been doing that for hundreds of years as a people.

Yeah, bloody nightmare, with their gay rights and leprechaun language. What next? Equality for women? Or Muslims?!? AHHHH

This is exactly the sort of tribalistic attitude that prevents the north from progressing beyond orange and green politics.

Women in NI have equality in the workplace, both parties are lead by women. NI IS orange and green politics when it is all said and done.

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

Women in NI have equality in the workplace, both parties are lead by women. NI IS orange and green politics when it is all said and done.

No, it isn't but the unionist parties would like you to believe it is because when "fear of the fenians" is put aside all you have is two right wing parties peppered with genuine bigots.
The constitutional issue will be settled by a border poll. SF could win every seat in the Assembly tomorrow and it still wouldnt shift the border an inch.


Regarding women I was referring more to reproductive rights.

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

So is Michelle O'Neil because Direct rule is coming. Thankfully! Get rid of this god awful system.

Yeah, much better to have some shower of unelected Tory ministers who fly over once a week making decisions than a locally elected body. This is why tribal politics of the kind you are espousing is so dangerous; it leads to people actually preferring to lose control than share it with "themmuns."

Galwayguy35

Foster looked uncomfortable during the debate last night.

Although Nesbitt saying to give no 2 to the SDLP was something I never thought I'd hear from a Unionist!

RicePat

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Foster looked uncomfortable during the debate last night.

Although Nesbitt saying to give no 2 to the SDLP was something I never thought I'd hear from a Unionist!

He came out with that weeks ago. Pity his party left him absolutely stranded on it. Not one of his candidates has come out to back him and several high profile ones have come out against him on it.
Still, it was a bold move and it might have worked had the SDLP responded in kind but like I said earlier, they're just all over the place

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

So is Michelle O'Neil because Direct rule is coming. Thankfully! Get rid of this god awful system.

Well O'Neill hasn't got a rump in her party waiting to turn on her.
The knifes are not just out yet for Arlene but come the end of the count they very well might be.
Despite the 'look over there at the Shinners' deflection by the DUP, there is nobody fooled about who made two massive blunders, RHI and Brexit.

Anatom

Despite all of the above, I don't think that we'll see anything bar a slight shifting of the deckchairs.

SF are set to make a slight gain. DUP a slight loss, UUP slightly more. The smaller parties are of no impact so that doesn't matter, as I don't see a huge number of independent/small party candidates in range.

I presume we'll know the result pretty quickly on Friday?

RicePat

Anatom wrote: »

Despite all of the above, I don't think that we'll see anything bar a slight shifting of the deckchairs.

SF are set to make a slight gain. DUP a slight loss, UUP slightly more. The smaller parties are of no impact so that doesn't matter, as I don't see a huge number of independent/small party candidates in range.

I presume we'll know the result pretty quickly on Friday?

Should have a pretty good indication by lunchtime friday but there's usually one or two constituencies run on into saturday.

Yeah, the only thing that would make a real difference would be the DUP taking a clobbering but i would be stunned if that happened. The "themmuns" factor within unionism is still too strong.

Long term this might actually help unionism. Nationalists are already increasingly losing interest in the process with the overall nationalist vote dropping steadily over the past several elections. This seems to have energised people a bit but I can see lots of nationalists just giving up on the process if the DUP can act like this and get away with it through a bit of taig bashing.

Anatom

You could be correct, but maybe it says something more about either (a) Northern Irish society or (b) the embedded and trenchent adherence to one side or the other that we haven't seen the rise of any sort of middle ground party.

We've moved on from the situation of my youth / teens / early twenties when violence was a real possibility / probability, so there should be a huge swathe of the NI population who have no direct experience of it and who are therefore sick and tired of both sides and their "history".

I'm thinking a PD-type party from our experience in the Republic, even Renua. Something that doesn't want anything to do with language issues or marching routes. A party that doesn't glory "martyrs" from one side or the other.

Until that happens, or until the main parties shed their secular skins, I don't see anything changing at all. (Of course, we're still talking about "Civil War politics" the odd time down here, so that should tell you how long we might have to wait for it in the North...

A Little Pony

RicePat wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Women in NI have equality in the workplace, both parties are lead by women. NI IS orange and green politics when it is all said and done.

No, it isn't but the unionist parties would like you to believe it is because when "fear of the fenians" is put aside all you have is two right wing parties peppered with genuine bigots.
The constitutional issue will be settled by a border poll.  SF could win every seat in the Assembly tomorrow and it still wouldnt shift the border an inch.


Regarding women I was referring more to reproductive rights.

If NI wasn't about Orange or Green, DUP and Sinn Fein wouldn't get elected. Two awful parties who haven't got a clue how to run a bath, never mind govern a state. Bring on Direct rule, I would much rather the Conservative party rule this place with proper governance than these idiots.

A Little Pony

Anatom wrote: »

You could be correct, but maybe it says something more about either (a) Northern Irish society or (b) the embedded and trenchent adherence to one side or the other that we haven't seen the rise of any sort of middle ground party.

We've moved on from the situation of my youth / teens / early twenties when violence was a real possibility / probability, so there should be a huge swathe of the NI population who have no direct experience of it and who are therefore sick and tired of both sides and their "history".  

I'm thinking a PD-type party from our experience in the Republic, even Renua.  Something that doesn't want anything to do with language issues or marching routes.  A party that doesn't glory "martyrs" from one side or the other.

Until that happens, or until the main parties shed their secular skins, I don't see anything changing at all.  (Of course, we're still talking about "Civil War politics" the odd time down here, so that should tell you how long we might have to wait for it in the North...

Sinn Fein like to talk about outreach to Unionists and Protestants but then just the other day that god awful human called Alex Maskey was courting the IRA for praise among his cohorts. How on earth he expects to win over Protestant Unionists by saying such things is beyond me.

No Unionist believes in them. At least be honest and stick to your message, they talk from both sides of the mouth.

Havockk

A Little Pony wrote: »

Bring on Direct rule, I would much rather the Conservative party rule this place with proper governance than these idiots.

The Tories? Good governance?

Hehe

I hope you don't rely on the NHS or in the future will have to rely on any part of the welfare state. You have a ringside seat to witness the last great decline of the UK post-Brexit. I hope you enjoy it.

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

If NI wasn't about Orange or Green, DUP and Sinn Fein wouldn't get elected. Two awful parties who haven't got a clue how to run a bath, never mind govern a state. Bring on Direct rule, I would much rather the Conservative party rule this place with proper governance than these idiots.

Must be why they're doing so poorly in the south....oh wait.

Total nonsense. I dont think any objective person could look at the slow state of progress in the north and conclude that anything other than DUP intransigence is behind it. Look at the Ministerial appointments from the last Assembly and the first actions of each Minister.
While SF Minister's were getting rid of the DUP's Gay Blood Ban, the DUP were spending public money to change the name of a boat because it was in Irish. WHile SF Ministers were ring fencing extra health funding and putting money into rural roads the DUP were bringing back academic selection.

As for the conservatives? I'm assuming you're a unionist but if you think they have any consideration for you as a "fellow countryman" you are wrong. If cuts need to be made they have nothing, not one vote, to lose by imposing whatever they want here.

A Little Pony

Havockk wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Bring on Direct rule, I would much rather the Conservative party rule this place with proper governance than these idiots.

The Tories? Good governance?

Hehe

I hope you don't rely on the NHS or in the future will have to rely on any part of the welfare state. You have a ringside seat to witness the last great decline of the UK post-Brexit. I hope you enjoy it.

I am a Conservative, so yes. I will be happy.

Havockk

A Little Pony wrote: »

I will be happy.

Until you're not

Like I said, enjoy what you are about to receive.

A Little Pony

RicePat wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

If NI wasn't about Orange or Green, DUP and Sinn Fein wouldn't get elected. Two awful parties who haven't got a clue how to run a bath, never mind govern a state. Bring on Direct rule, I would much rather the Conservative party rule this place with proper governance than these idiots.

Must be why they're doing so poorly in the south....oh wait.

Total nonsense. I dont think any objective person could look at the slow state of progress in the north and conclude that anything other than DUP intransigence is behind it. Look at the Ministerial appointments from the last Assembly and the first actions of each Minister.
While SF Minister's were getting rid of the DUP's Gay Blood Ban, the DUP were spending public money to change the name of a boat because it was in Irish.  WHile SF Ministers were ring fencing extra health funding and putting money into rural roads the DUP were bringing back academic selection.

As for the conservatives? I'm assuming you're a unionist but if you think they have any consideration for you as a "fellow countryman" you are wrong. If cuts need to be made they have nothing, not one vote, to lose by imposing whatever they want here.

Sinn Fein are in government in the south? Sinn Fein haven't got a hope of being elected to govern the Republic. The people just don't trust them with the economy and running the country.

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

Sinn Fein like to talk about outreach to Unionists and Protestants but then just the other day that god awful human called Alex Maskey was courting the IRA for praise among his cohorts. How on earth he expects to win over Protestant Unionists by saying such things is beyond me.

No Unionist believes in them. At least be honest and stick to your message, they talk from both sides of the mouth.

I have taken part in the outreach programmes and they are a genuine attempt to heal divisions, particularly the uncomfortable conversations project. Look at John O'Dowd's final speech in the Assembly where he said he was proud to work alongside his unionist brothers and sisters. Martin McGuinness met the english queen FFS.
Thankfully, most of the people who actually engage in these initiatives do not slap the outstretched hand away like you seem to be so keen to do.

No idea what youre referring to with Alex Maskey, the IRA went on ceasefire 20 years ago, disarmed 15 years ago and ceased to exist more than 10 years ago

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

Sinn Fein are in government in the south? Sinn Fein haven't got a hope of being elected to govern the Republic. The people just don't trust them with the economy and running the country.

Youre just denying reality now. Latest poll has them on 19% How can we be expected to discuss politics when you refuse to acknowledge what's in front of your face?