FT: diesel faces global crash

isnottheword

LINK

They're citing emissions issues and loss of competitive edge with EV's going forward as the rationale behind the headline...

Kristopherus

Aye, and the sky will fall as well.

enda1

The sooner, the better.

Markcheese

Diesel will always suit certain drivers / applications ... but if the price difference at the pump changes/ road tax criteria change then most punters won't want them ...
And if most engine deveopers
don't bother developing the next generation of diesels to meet euro what ever ( and many aren't ) then they'll be gradually phased out... so if you really want a diesel you'll have to drive an old one or a lorry. .
As to where that leaves van drivers who knows ..

isnottheword

Kristopherus wrote: »

Aye, and the sky will fall as well.

A touch of cynicism perhaps?

Fair enough but I disagree. The policy to shift towards diesel has been proven to have been a major mistake. The thinking at the time surrounded C02 emissions. They didn't consider the nasties that diesel would bring into the mix i.e. Nitrous Oxide and Particulate Matter.

There's nothing dramatic in that FT article - it suggests this will be a gradually phased in process. However, it sounds very plausible and achievable.

You can ponder about the sky falling in as you drive along in your diesel - breathing in these nasties from WITHIN your vehicle (as a recent study showed).

Kristopherus

isnottheword wrote: »

A touch of cynicism perhaps?

Fair enough but I disagree. The policy to shift towards diesel has been proven to have been a major mistake. The thinking at the time surrounded C02 emissions. They didn't consider the nasties that diesel would bring into the mix i.e. Nitrous Oxide and Particulate Matter.

There's nothing dramatic in that FT article - it suggests this will be a gradually phased in process. However, it sounds very plausible and achievable.

You can ponder about the sky falling in as you drive along in your diesel - breathing in these nasties from WITHIN your vehicle (as a recent study showed).

We live in the outskirts of Europe and are buffetted by mostly westerly winds for most of the year. That wind is strong enough to dissipate any nasties before we ingest them. I take those studies with a shovelfull of salt.

JohnFalstaff

Kristopherus wrote: »

We live in the outskirts of Europe and are buffetted by mostly westerly winds for most of the year. That wind is strong enough to dissipate any nasties before we ingest them. I take those studies with a shovelfull of salt.

We are a small island population of under 7 million. What about all those living in densely populated urban centres for whom these nasties represent a real and pressing concern?

Kristopherus

JohnFalstaff wrote: »

We are a small island population of under 7 million. What about all those living in densely populated urban centres for whom these nasties represent a real and pressing concern?

We have only one city that could compare density-wise withe European cities. Have you any proof that those nasties have invaded any place?

JohnFalstaff

Kristopherus wrote: »

We have only one city that could compare density-wise withe European cities. Have you any proof that those nasties have invaded any place?

That's my point. To limit this discussion to Ireland is redundant and parochial. I'm talking about Tokyo, Delhi, Mexico City etc.

WHO Review of evidence on health aspects of air pollution – REVIHAAP Project

http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/193108/REVIHAAP-Final-technical-report-final-version.pdf?ua=1

isnottheword

Kristopherus wrote: »

We have only one city that could compare density-wise withe European cities. Have you any proof that those nasties have invaded any place?

There's evidence that those 'nasties' are coming through the air vents in diesel cars - affecting the drivers....before you consider pedestrians/cyclists, etc.
As regards your prevailing winds nonsense, how does that work in urban areas - and they don't have to be major urban areas - a busy junction backed up with traffic is sufficient.

n97 mini

Kristopherus wrote: »

We have only one city that could compare density-wise withe European cities. Have you any proof that those nasties have invaded any place?

And a third of the population live in that densely populated area. The really nice thing about EVs is that the burning of stuff which produces all this crap is moved to rural areas, i.e. power stations.

But, returning to diesel, when we have a redneck minister for finance that won't increase duty on diesel as "it would be unfair to all those who bought diesel cars" we're fooked. Thank God for the EU who will impose the elimination of diesel, eventually.

Gazzmonkey

isnottheword wrote: »

As regards your prevailing winds nonsense, how does that work in urban areas - and they don't have to be major urban areas - a busy junction backed up with traffic is sufficient.

Which is exactly why those nasties are coming through the vents of petrols & EVs too. Stuck in traffic long enough and you can smell the oily fumes.. smells a bit like new fresh chip pan oil when heated up.

steelboots

There are two main advantages of EVs are:

1) No emissions from tail pipe, so much healthier & safer for urban areas.
2) We have control how these cars are powered and can change over time. i.e. currently power by oil, coal, gas, wind and will probably move more towards the cleaner sources of energy but we don't have to make any changes to the car. If a decision was made to ban diesel cars for example it would take ~15 years to be rid of them.

Special Circumstances

Small capacity diesels are failed technology IMHO.
I'm surprised this thread hasn't been overrun with thicks yet - "oh yeah right you'll never get me to give up diesel it's just so cheap when they give so many incentives to use it under the current CO2 is the be all and end all of emissions".

They never seem to remember that diesel became dominant over night due to tax changes - it can just as easily become expensive.

Luckily for Irish diesel drivers there is NO party in Ireland who would do that unless instructed by the EU.

Mooooo

n97 mini wrote: »

And a third of the population live in that densely populated area. The really nice thing about EVs is that the burning of stuff which produces all this crap is moved to rural areas, i.e. power stations.

But, returning to diesel, when we have a redneck minister for finance that won't increase duty on diesel as "it would be unfair to all those who bought diesel cars" we're fooked. Thank God for the EU who will impose the elimination of diesel, eventually.

Why the fcuk does it always have to be increase taxes. Make the alternative cheaper and the uptake would be as fast. Oh wait there is no alternative there.... no problem if it needs to be phased out but put the solution in place or at least available first

Jakey Rolling

Special Circumstances wrote: »

Luckily for Irish diesel drivers there is NO party in Ireland who would do that unless instructed by the EU.

Which is what is likely to happen.

I can see a lot of folks (myself included) struggling to get a decent trade-in price for their diesels when new regulation/taxes are imposed, along with the glut of ex PCP cars coming to the market. Many will struggle to come up with a deposit for their next PCP deal.

Trying to persuade my wife to go petrol or electric when she changes car next year.

Special Circumstances

Jakey Rolling wrote: »

Which is what is likely to happen.

I can see a lot of folks (myself included) struggling to get a decent trade-in price for their diesels when new regulation/taxes are imposed, along with the glut of ex PCP cars coming to the market. Many will struggle to come up with a deposit for their next PCP deal.

Trying to persuade my wife to go petrol or electric when she changes car next year.

Honestly - there isn't any real and present danger of the the EU pushing against diesel. German manufacturers sell enormous numbers of fleet cars which could not all be replaced overnight with EVs.

"Diesel Uber Alles" will continue for a long time. The emissions test mandated by the EU for national car testing is like something from the 1800's. There isn't even any momentum to force proper testmodes for DPFs etc that makes diesel so "clean".

A visible smoke test and perhaps, sometime before 2020 maybe, a visual inspection that there is some sorta lump where the DPF should be.

Agri diesel and woefully inadequate emissions testing will continue to make diesel the most attractive option in Ireland even if the purchase price, tax cost and legitimate fuel cost of diesel cars was to increase.

isnottheword

Special Circumstances wrote: »

German manufacturers sell enormous numbers of fleet cars which could not all be replaced overnight with EVs.

Nobody is talking about overnight. The article doesn't indicate overnight either.....simply because it's not possible right now to do any such thing overnight.

What they are flagging is a change of policy - which will ultimately be seen through over the years ahead.

Special Circumstances

Special Circumstances wrote: »

They never seem to remember that diesel became dominant over night due to tax changes - it can just as easily become expensive.

Luckily for Irish diesel drivers there is NO party in Ireland who would do that unless instructed by the EU.

Jakey Rolling wrote: »

Which is what is likely to happen.

I can see a lot of folks (myself included) struggling to get a decent trade-in price for their diesels when new regulation/taxes are imposed, along with the glut of ex PCP cars coming to the market. Many will struggle to come up with a deposit for their next PCP deal.

Trying to persuade my wife to go petrol or electric when she changes car next year.

Special Circumstances wrote: »

Honestly - there isn't any real and present danger of the the EU pushing against diesel. German manufacturers sell enormous numbers of fleet cars which could not all be replaced overnight with EVs.

isnottheword wrote: »

Nobody is talking about overnight. The article doesn't indicate overnight either.....simply because it's not possible right now to do any such thing overnight.

What they are flagging is a change of policy - which will ultimately be seen through over the years ahead.

My "overnight" comment was in response to people in Ireland worrying about the car they buy next year or the year after. Not a comment on the article, or the long term prospects for small capacity diesels.

The car Johhny and Mary buy next year or the year after will be scrapped due to mounting repair costs long before German car manufacturers and the EU agree to start a serious move to electric with the associated policy changes to phase out small capacity diesels.

isnottheword

Special Circumstances wrote: »

My "overnight" comment was in response to people in Ireland worrying about the car they buy next year or the year after. Not a comment on the article, or the long term prospects for small capacity diesels.

Ok, no worries then - we're on the same page on that aspect of things.

Special Circumstances wrote: »

The car Johhny and Mary buy next year or the year after will be scrapped due to mounting repair costs long before German car manufacturers and the EU agree to start a serious move to electric with the associated policy changes to phase out small capacity diesels.

It takes a long time to see a policy shift like this through to finality. Notwithstanding that, there may well be implications which make diesel less attractive in the shorter term. For example, a graduated - year on year - series of increases in motor taxation rates for diesel vehicles (or diesels within certain categories). Not a measure that will drive Johnny and Mary off the road - but one item that may steer them towards looking at other options when the time comes for them to replace their existing vehicle.
As regards the political will to do that, they'll start with small increases and go from there. Remember, they manipulated us into driving more diesels (granted that was in tandem with some advances in small diesel engine tech....albeit that it appears to be flawed ala VW) - they can manipulate us into changing again.

Special Circumstances

isnottheword wrote: »

As regards the political will to do that, they'll start with small increases and go from there.

True.
The Gormley levy that was applied to petrol (despite containing less CO2 per litre than diesel) will hardly be gotten rid off, but legitimate road diesel could see some similar type of a levy applied no doubt.

I think major changes are needed here to really unwind the situation Der Greens have brought about. Not gonna happen in the expected lifetime of any diesel car bought in January.

Water John

If this guys views get traction and people connect diesel with the health of their own children, it may create quite a relatively quick shift.

“If you’re going to design something that would effectively deliver a toxic substance into the lungs, you couldn’t do better than the diesel soot particle,” says Jonathan Grigg, a consultant paediatrician at the Royal London Hospital and professor researching pollution’s effects on children at Queen Mary University of London. “We need to get the current polluting, toxic diesel fleet off our roads as soon as possible.”

isnottheword

Water John wrote: »

If this guys views get traction and people connect diesel with the health of their own children, it may create quite a relatively quick shift.

That viewpoint is widespread at this stage. However, it's a major logistical shift from diesel to EV - bearing in mind that EV is not quite up to speed just yet (in terms of range, etc.).

I can see major cities starting first - London, Paris, etc - banning or penalising anything other than EV's. Then more costs will be tacked on to diesel - bit by bit, year by year. In the meantime, EV should be picking up momentum in all respects eg. strength, depth and reliability of the charging network, range, reliability, etc.

That's all going to take a while so I suspect incremental change to begin with...

Special Circumstances

Water John wrote: »

If this guys views get traction and people connect diesel with the health of their own children, it may create quite a relatively quick shift.

“If you’re going to design something that would effectively deliver a toxic substance into the lungs, you couldn’t do better than the diesel soot particle,” says Jonathan Grigg, a consultant paediatrician at the Royal London Hospital and professor researching pollution’s effects on children at Queen Mary University of London. “We need to get the current polluting, toxic diesel fleet off our roads as soon as possible.”

The diesel cultists will stick their fingers in their ears and "lalala oh typical won't somebody think of the children ****" so they don't have to think about it.

Current guidance for having a newborn in your house seems to be to not even allow people who have gone outside to smoke to be near the baby for 10minutes afterwards.

Somebody somewhere has stats linking areas with high levels of diesel use with increased infant mortality. I'm sure of it. And I'm pretty sure it existed pre 2008.

An absolute joke that Gormley put that levy on petrol to punish petrol hybrid drivers.

BoatMad

Mooooo wrote: »

Why the fcuk does it always have to be increase taxes. Make the alternative cheaper and the uptake would be as fast. Oh wait there is no alternative there.... no problem if it needs to be phased out but put the solution in place or at least available first

Evs are the solution and they will over the next 5 years or so so most if not all what diesels do today and some better things as well.

Hence we will see a gradual de-incentiveisation of diesels and ICE in general , There is no future for diesel cars in private transport. The diesel engine is a dirty beast

BorneTobyWilde

I have no idea why they can't alter the fuel, the diesel engine is great, the fuel to power it is crap. The first diesels ran on super green peanut oil,
Low Nox , why not alter the dam fuel.

BoatMad

Special Circumstances wrote: »

Honestly - there isn't any real and present danger of the the EU pushing against diesel. German manufacturers sell enormous numbers of fleet cars which could not all be replaced overnight with EVs.

"Diesel Uber Alles" will continue for a long time. The emissions test mandated by the EU for national car testing is like something from the 1800's. There isn't even any momentum to force proper testmodes for DPFs etc that makes diesel so "clean".

A visible smoke test and perhaps, sometime before 2020 maybe, a visual inspection that there is some sorta lump where the DPF should be.

Agri diesel and woefully inadequate emissions testing will continue to make diesel the most attractive option in Ireland even if the purchase price, tax cost and legitimate fuel cost of diesel cars was to increase.

The fact remains that Ireland is completely an outlier as far as diesel is concerned , about 50 % of the national fleet is diesel and about 70% of recent new cars are now diesel. This is at complete variance to the rest of Europe.

So, you have to ask yourself why, the answer is the obvious bias in the motor tax that benefits diesels and a combination of lower fuel costs and greater fuel efficiency

This would suggest that in Ireland, running costs , perceived or other wise , play a very significant role in decision making . This is coupled by the fact that in ireland we drive way more on average then even the Americans.

All this is good news for EVs as the offer the chance to further reduce running costs, which seemingly are held dear to peoples hearts here

Over time ( 5 years or so ) you will see the tax position on diesel and Co2 change to make diesel unattractive and that will drive more to consider EVs

newacc2015

n97 mini wrote: »

And a third of the population live in that densely populated area. The really nice thing about EVs is that the burning of stuff which produces all this crap is moved to rural areas, i.e. power stations.

Thats assuming they are dirty power stations to bring with. Take France where power is mainly CO2 free nuclear power. In Ireland a fair amount of power is wind and pretty clean gas. Unless you are burning coal in a dodgy plant, EV is most likely better for the enviroment

BorneTobyWilde

fuel is fuel
One could argue in court that it's discrimination to charge a person with a petrol car more to run it than the guy with the diesel. It's Fuelism .
Petrol guy you pay 1.55 a litre
Diesel guy YOU pay 1.08 a litre
Have a good day .
vROOM vROOM

BoatMad

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

fuel is fuel
One could argue in court that it's discrimination to charge a person with a petrol car more to run it than the guy with the diesel. It's Fuelism .

nonsense , or are you just joking ,

BorneTobyWilde

BoatMad wrote: »

nonsense , or are you just joking ,

White guy you sit here, you drive a diesel
Black guy you sit here, you drive a petrol

I'm not kidding .

Fuel is fuel
Tell me why it is not >?

BoatMad

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

White guy you sit here, you drive a diesel
Black guy you sit here, you drive a petrol

I'm not kidding .

Fuel is fuel
Tell me why it is not >?

because we live in a consumer competitive capitalist economy, where by an large one shop can charge whats it likes for bread, where another can do likewise , no court will intervene as there is no legislation setting maximum pricing .

hence your argument has no foundation, fuel pricing is a combination of regulatory tax take and free market price setting and is why recently I can buy diesel from 118.9 to 123.9 even through the exact same stuff pours out of the pump

oppenheimer1

BoatMad wrote: »

The fact remains that Ireland is completely an outlier as far as diesel is concerned , about 50 % of the national fleet is diesel and about 70% of recent new cars are now diesel. This is at complete variance to the rest of Europe.

So, you have to ask yourself why, the answer is the obvious bias in the motor tax that benefits diesels and a combination of lower fuel costs and greater fuel efficiency

This would suggest that in Ireland, running costs , perceived or other wise , play a very significant role in decision making . This is coupled by the fact that in ireland we drive way more on average then even the Americans.

All this is good news for EVs as the offer the chance to further reduce running costs, which seemingly are held dear to peoples hearts here

Over time ( 5 years or so ) you will see the tax position on diesel and Co2 change to make diesel unattractive and that will drive more to consider EVs

The tax position on EV's will have to change too, with some form of road pricing inevitable. Excise and VAT on fuel is a huge revenue stream for the government.

EV will only cost slightly less or the same as diesel is now per Km once established. EV is currently extremely cheap due to the incentives offered yet has minimal market penetration whick shoes that car buyers in Ireland are not just running cost sensitive.

BoatMad

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The tax position on EV's will have to change too, with some form of road pricing inevitable. Excise and VAT on fuel is a huge revenue stream for the government.

EV will only cost slightly less or the same as diesel is now per Km once established. EV is currently extremely cheap due to the incentives offered yet has minimal market penetration whick shoes that car buyers in Ireland are not just running cost sensitive.

agree, in the long run, the exchequer will have to recover lost taxes on hydrocarbons , so we can expect that the costs of EVs will rise , assuming they gain widespread market penetration of course . As you say road pricing etc

EVs will remain cheaper to run largely because electricity is cheaper to acquire then hydrocarbons , solar PV and other forms of microgeneeration will play an increasing role as capital process fall.

The major disincentives on EV purchases in the recent past have not be associated with running costs one way or the other , the major issue has been range , and model choice. Both of these are likely to begin to be addressed in the next 2-5 years and there the inherent lower running costs of EVs will tend to become more and more attractive

They have to , the alternative is the continued use of ICE and hydrocarbon fuel sources to the detriment of the environment around us . EVs in themselves anrt a solution unless you accept that factor ( well there are some minor benefits , performance and ambient noise )

BorneTobyWilde

BoatMad wrote: »

because we live in a consumer competitive capitalist economy, where by an large one shop can charge whats it likes for bread, where another can do likewise , no court will intervene as there is no legislation setting maximum pricing .

hence your argument has no foundation, fuel pricing is a combination of regulatory tax take and free market price setting and is why recently I can buy diesel from 118.9 to 123.9 even through the exact same stuff pours out of the pump

Government should tax both fuels at same rate, and lower both rates. They're taxing one guy more than the other for a fuel to power a vehicle.

BoatMad

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Government should tax both fuels at same rate, and lower both rates.

if anything given the excessive pollution issues with diesel , it should be taxed slightly higher

but I fail to see any justification for lowering the overall rate, all that happens is more income tax has to be extracted from the already over burdened middle classes to compensate.

there is an argument that duties on fuels should be removed and other forms of tax be used , like road pricing etc . But even the environmental issues around hydrocarbons ( and the basic thermodynamic inefficiency of the 19th century bag of bolts that is the ICE engine ) I see no purpose to making such fuel cheaper and in fact over time duties should be raised and incentives on EVs corresponding raised to encourage changeover

gctest50

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Tell me why it is not >?

cos it has been selling diesel cars for the past few years and they'll be obsolete soon cos they're poisoning everyone


Diesel is more expensive it seems before tax and the rest

http://bit.ly/2hQFQdg

Price before taxes are added   Petrol :	46.06c 	Diesel :  49.20c

Total taxes                    Petrol : 85.34c  Diesel :  72.70c

BoatMad

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Government should tax both fuels at same rate, and lower both rates. They're taxing one guy more than the other for a fuel to power a vehicle.

I think they certainly also intend to remove the advantage diesel has

gctest50

The health angle will come in to play, more sales for SIMI



the sister is looking happy with herself here :



Members of Doctors Against Diesel claim that 9,400 people living in inner-city London die prematurely every year as a result of inhaling fumes.

biko

OP link is paywall or not working
Diesel discussion here