Storm Barbara - 23rd December 2016

Att vara en hest

Flying out from Dublin on Thursday.. should I expect delays? Or does it not start until Friday?

Meteorite58

I think the latest GFS 18Z run has upgraded the storm on Fri, gusting to around 80 km/h overland perhaps, 100 to 120 km/h in Atlantic coastal counties, perhaps more in the NW/ N .






Mean speeds

JCX BXC

Att vara en hest wrote: »

Flying out from Dublin on Thursday.. should I expect delays? Or does it not start until Friday?

Even in wind, it's impossible to forecast delays in aviation, delays can arise out of anything.

goat2

Looking at the charts and news this evening, this could travel further north giving us less of a hit,

pauldry

not looking half as bad at present but danger still there...one big wobble is all thats required

some models have more mild weather after 27th.

Xenji

Achill Island Coast Guard currently have this on their Facebook page, updated at 22.27.

#StormBarbara Update.

*** Storm/Violent Storm/Hurricane Force Winds ***

Friday - Strong Gale gusting to Storm Force 10. Winds mainly from the S & SW then W. Peak winds expected Friday morning and early afternoon. Damaging gusts in excess of 110 kmh expected. ORANGE warning expected by Wednesday. All time scales can change as we are still a number of days off yet.

Sunday - Christmas Day - Violent Storm with Hurricane Force gusts. Winds mainly from the SW then W. Shorter storm as main winds are expected in the early hours of the morning through to late morning. Damaging gusts in excess of of 145 kmh expected. ORANGE warning expected by Thursday or Friday. If the storm maintains its strength expect a RED warning by Saturday. As above all time scales are subject to change as we are still a number of days off yet.

kittensmittens

JCX BXC wrote: »

Main wind events appear to be Friday and Sunday, Saturday appears to be the lull in the middle.

It all depends on wind direction, if its directly westerly/northwesterly, Dublin will cope fine, if the wind is a very strong and gusty southwesterly, you'll likely be diverted to Shannon or Belfast, possibly Cork. Sometime flights divert to Liverpool and Manchester, but that's usually Ryanair once Shannon gets full.

On the flip side.....I'm flying out to Philly on the 23rd from Dub(morn). What way will this work if the high winds transpire friday?

Rebelbrowser

After seeing the 0z runs of the models you can close this thread I think. The mooted storms now miss us by some distance, especially Fridays one. It will be breezy on Christmas morning in the north but in my part of the world it wont even be that I think. in fact the models have completely changed overnight in other respects too.

JCX BXC

kittensmittens wrote: »

On the flip side.....I'm flying out to Philly on the 23rd from Dub(morn). What way will this work if the high winds transpire friday?

You'll land somewhere don't worry

If people would like, I'll update closer to the time how various airports could be affected by the expected wind strength/direction.

km79

Most people blissfully unaware that Armageddon has been avoided

irishgeo

Xenji wrote: »

Achill Island Coast Guard currently have this on their Facebook page, updated at 22.27.

They love to overhype things.

ninebeanrows

Still some uncertainty among ensembles at this stage.

Would not write off disruption yet. More runs needed.

ninebeanrows

Christmas Day looks the more risky day IMO

HighLine

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

After seeing the 0z runs of the models you can close this thread I think. The mooted storms now miss us by some distance, especially Fridays one. It will be breezy on Christmas morning in the north but in my part of the world it wont even be that I think. in fact the models have completely changed overnight in other respects too.

It has happened so many times over the last few years where an impending "storm of the century" takes a massive northerly shift and completely misses Ireland as it gets closer.

Either MET need to stop issuing warnings so far out or some preemptive mental adjustment of charts needs to happen before the headlines of doom spread among the masses.

HighLine

Could be a bit blowy in the northwest of Scotland on Christmas Day though.

mickger844posts

Friday's storm officially named Storm Barbara. Looks like Storm Conor to follow on Xmas day.

Maidhci

HighLine wrote: »

It has happened so many times over the last few years where an impending "storm of the century" takes a massive northerly shift and completely misses Ireland as it gets closer.

Either MET need to stop issuing warnings so far out or some preemptive mental adjustment of charts needs to happen before the headlines of doom spread among the masses.

I think you need to put this into perspective - in fairness to ME, they warned of the potential for stormy conditions NOT issued warnings as you state, to the best of my knowledge. I think I have heard most of their forecasts over the past week and I consider that they have been prudent in the circumstances. Hopefully, the storms will not materialize but in the event that they occurred and no advance notifications having been issued, I wonder what the reaction would be!

MarkKellyIND

when is this due to arrive

Rebelbrowser

Again the 6z gfs shows these storms as Scotland only events at this stage. Breezy in the north, not even that in the south. Good news for the time of year I think. Wouldn't blame ME for being prudent but if the 12z gfs and ecm follow this theme I think we are out of the woods.

Meteorite58

Thankfully the worst of the Storm is staying well North but IMO we are still going to have some strong winds especially along the Atlantic Seaboard from around 04.00 and spreading across the country quickly in the morning and should be cleared by early afternoon for the most part but will remain very windy on the NW and N coasts.

I would not underestimate the strength of the winds that will cross the country early Fri morning. Potentially very blustery squally conditions with wind driven rain.

HensVassal

I will be flying into Dublin late on Dec 23rd. Am I in trouble? 2010 on the 23rd I spent 3 nights in a foreign airport because of the snow.

nacho libre

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Again the 6z gfs shows these storms as Scotland only events at this stage. Breezy in the north, not even that in the south. Good news for the time of year I think. Wouldn't blame ME for being prudent but if the 12z gfs and ecm follow this theme I think we are out of the woods.

What we all need to remember is two things: The GFS tends to depict massive storms seven days out, then downgrades them closer to the time. Storm systems, usually, tend to track further north than first depicted. It will be fairly windy in the far north west, but it will be standard winter fare, i think.

JanuarySnowstor

Weathercheck wrote: »

Christmas Day looks the more risky day IMO

If you live in Northwest Scotland

Cosmo Kramer

nacho libre wrote: »

What we all need to remember is two things: The GFS tends to depict massive storms seven days out, then downgrades them closer to the time. Storm systems, usually, tend to track further north than first depicted. It will be fairly windy in the far north west, but it will be standard winter fare, i think.

I agree with all this but I do wonder, after all the years of weather watching on here, why the various models can't be adjusted to take account of some of these repeated changes from early predictions that we see time and again. Surely the information gained through actual events should allow the models to be improved so that things like movement of storms further north can show up earlier and we get better forecasts as a result?

pauldry

Though serious storms not likely I have seen lots of storms that have become a nowcast event due to kinks in the jet last minute

A couple of years ago Munster got badly hit in February due to this and in 1997 the Christmas eve storm intensified lots at the end.

Some minor storms of the past few Winters have been downgraded only to be upgraded to 130kph last minute which is serious enough.

The one on Christmas Day could do this in Donegal and the 23rd storm could be 100 or 110 in Malin

Iancar29

pauldry wrote: »

Though serious storms not likely I have seen lots of storms that have become a nowcast event due to kinks in the jet last minute

A couple of years ago Munster got badly hit in February due to this and in 1997 the Christmas eve storm intensified lots at the end.

Some minor storms of the past few Winters have been downgraded only to be upgraded to 130kph last minute which is serious enough.

The one on Christmas Day could do this in Donegal and the 23rd storm could be 100 or 110 in Malin

Very good point. A reason why I better not see posts like " damp squib, meh why was this even a warning ..blah blah blah... "

Rebelbrowser

The 12z gfs has the 23rd and 25th storms even further north. As the guys have said it could still change but we do appear to be out of the woods. The storms are also moving through quicker, one positive of this being that the colder air arrives around midday on Xmas day so the big day will feel pretty seasonal.

23rd

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122012/gfs-0-72.png?12?12


25th

Cherry Blossom Girl

Could these storms still be bad in lowland Scotland? (Sorry, I'm not used to interpreting these charts). My boyfriend is supposed to fly in from Edinburgh on the afternoon of the 23rd.

Clonmel1000

Iancar29 wrote: »

Very good point. A reason why I better not see posts like " damp squib, meh why was this even a warning ..blah blah blah... "

Almost as annoying as the posts in October predicting a white Christmas.

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Almost as annoying as the posts in October predicting a white Christmas.

Not as bad as constant whining about out how bad our climate is! It's nothing new!:D