Champions Cup permutations 2016/17 after Round 4

Neil3030

Clermont vs Toulon
Leinster vs Glasgow
Munster vs Toulouse
Saracens vs Wasps

The great part about this scenario (from a purely Irish perspective) is that only one team out of Sarries, Wasps, Clermont and Toulon can reach the final, at no expense to Irish sides.

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

Clermont vs Toulon
Leinster vs Glasgow
Munster vs Toulouse
Saracens vs Wasps

The great part about this scenario (from a purely Irish perspective) is that only one team out of Sarries, Wasps, Clermont and Toulon can reach the final, at no expense to Irish sides.

I don't think Clermont 1 and Leinster 2 is feasible. Leinster have too big a points difference gap, and they'd to win to get 2nd seed anyway.

Edit, sorry I'm totally wrong. Clermont with a BP and Leinster without.

ClanofLams

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

A smart team, a ruthless team, a focus and realistic team that wants to win the ERC would do it. I expect Leinster to properly manage the best draw for themselves. It is in their hands to a great degree. Just winning and running in 4 tries because they get themselves into a position to do so would be just brainless.

They're up first on Friday night. They will have no idea of permutations. Getting involved in that sort of nonsense is asking for trouble.

Neil3030

Felipe Wide Martinet wrote: »

I don't think Clermont 1 and Leinster 2 is feasible. Leinster have too big a points difference gap, and they'd to win to get 2nd seed anyway.

We're both on 21 points, so 4 points for us, 5 for Clermont sees them top the ranks. Assuming Sarries and Munster both secure a TBP, we'd all be on 25, but our points difference should be too big to lose 2nd spot.

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

We're both on 21 points, so 4 points for us, 5 for Clermont sees them top the ranks. Assuming Sarries and Munster both secure a TBP, we'd all be on 25, but our points difference should be too big to lose 2nd spot.

Yeah you're spot on, edited above.

Akrasia

Clermont are at home to Exeter, leinster are away to Castres, based on that alone, Clermont have to be favourites to get a tbp while Leinster should still win, securing the bp will be more difficult

The Exeter manager David Diamond was joking with reporters that they'll just turn up at Clermont and give it a go and see what happens, so even he doubts that they have any real chance of an upset.

Saracens will be doing very well to get a TBP against a highly motivated Toulon, so they'll probably finish 4th on 24 points

Tigerandahalf

Going away to Clermont wouldn't be the worst draw for Connacht if they qualify.
The loose style that Connacht play could cause Clermont trouble plus Beshoff and Bundee would be back.

In fairness it is a great tournament and in fairness to the English clubs the changes they brought about have made the competition better.

If a Welsh and Scottish could push into the 1/4s it would add further to the tournament for all the home nations.

From what I've seen Leinster look favourites but Saracens are a tough nut to crack.

Tigerandahalf

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Going away to Clermont wouldn't be the worst draw for Connacht if they qualify.
The loose style that Connacht play could cause Clermont trouble plus Beshoff and Bundee would be back.

In fairness it is a great tournament and in fairness to the English clubs the changes they brought about have made the competition better.

If a Welsh and Scottish could push into the 1/4s it would add further to the tournament for all the home nations.

From what I've seen Leinster look favourites but Saracens are a tough nut to crack.

I would love a trip to Clermont

mansize

https://twitter.com/btsportrugby/status/820735111247392768

mansize

Also looks like the final is at 5pm on the official website

Peregrine

Extremely preliminary predictions mostly based around Connacht:

Leinster |26
Clermont|26
Munster|25
Saracens|24
Wasps|22
Connacht|19
Glasgow|18
Toulon|16

In this scenario:

Wasps and Munster wallops their respective opponents.
In France: Leinster gets a TBP win over Castres and Clermont gets a TBP victory over Exeter.
Sarries beat Toulon. Even if Saracens get a TBP, I think Munster will have a better points difference by the end. Toulon could claim the 8th spot unless Montpellier gets a TBP victory over Northampton AND Toulon doesn't get the LBP (or lose without a TBP, whatever). I'm going to say that Toulon will get a BP and qualify leaving Montpellier out.
Glasgow beats Leicester with no TBP.
Connacht loses to Toulouse but gets a LBP and denies Toulouse a TBP. Part of me thinks I'm just being hopeful about this.

Anyway, that would give us these QFs:

Leinster vs Toulon
Clermont vs Glasgow
Munster vs Connacht
Saracens vs Wasps

If Leinster, Clermont, Munster and Saracens win then:

Leinster vs Saracens
Clermont vs Munster

________________________

In a different scenario, Connacht loses to Toulouse without a LBP which would be the end of their CC.

Leinster |26
Clermont|26
Munster|25
Saracens|24
Wasps|22
Toulouse|18/19
Glasgow|18
Toulon|16

Leinster vs Toulon
Clermont vs Glasgow
Munster vs Toulose
Saracens vs Wasps
_________________________

In fantasy rugby: Connacht beats Toulouse and tops the pool. The Toulon v Montpellier situation comes in again.

Leinster |26
Clermont|26
Munster|25
Saracens|24
Connacht|23
Wasps|22
Glasgow|18
Toulon|16

Leinster vs Toulon
Clermont vs Glasgow
Munster vs Wasps
Saracens vs Connacht

____________________________________

I'm not sure how certain I am of a Glasgow win over Leicester. If it doesn't happen, I think, everyone will just have to move up one spot and, if Toulon is already in, Montpellier will take the 8th spot.
_____________________________________


Now I'm just waiting for all that to be wrong.

Peregrine

mansize wrote: »

Cheers man

Had to edit it there. I had left in Wasps, Connacht and Toulouse qualifying in the first one which can't happen because the 3 runner-up places have to come from the 5 runner-ups from each pool.

vienne86

I think Leinster will beat Castres all right, but I'm not so sure about them getting a bonus point. I think Leinster will be second. I really really really hope Connacht will pick up a LBP next weekend in Toulouse - big ask though.

durkadurka

I'm somewhat uncertain about Glasgow winning which would open the door to Montpelier presumably.

Weekend couldn't have gone better for Leinster really.

vienne86

durkadurka wrote: »

I'm somewhat uncertain about Glasgow winning which would open the door to Montpelier presumably.

Weekend couldn't have gone better for Leinster really.

Having watched Leicester play in Paris last night, I would be confident of a Glasgow win next weekend. Leicester were awful.

Teferi

vienne86 wrote: »

Having watched Leicester play in Paris last night, I would be confident of a Glasgow win next weekend. Leicester were awful.

I think Leicester will play for pride next weekend in front of their home crowd. They might not roll over for Glasgow.

CMOTDibbler

Teferi wrote: »

I think Leicester will play for pride next weekend in front of their home crowd. They might not roll over for Glasgow.

Can they afford to be using vauable resources for pride? There's nothing to be gained and they have a tough league battle ahead of them.

durkadurka

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Can they afford to be using vauable resources for pride? There's nothing to be gained and they have a tough league battle ahead of them.

They're an old fashioned club with pride and integrity, they have a serious fan base who expect their team to show up.

ScrubsfanChris

durkadurka wrote: »

They're an old fashioned club with pride and integrity, they have a serious fan base who expect their team to show up.

And they've only lost once at home all season and are the type of team that will want to keep that sort of form. Not saying they'll win but it wont be a push over against a second string side.

Akrasia

Peregrine wrote: »

Had to edit it there. I had left in Wasps, Connacht and Toulouse qualifying in the first one which can't happen because the 3 runner-up places have to come from the 5 runner-ups from each pool.

Been there done that

CMOTDibbler

ScrubsfanChris wrote: »

And they've only lost once at home all season and are the type of team that will want to keep that sort of form. Not saying they'll win but it wont be a push over against a second string side.

Not saying it will be a pushover, just that I'll be surprised if it's a full first string starting XV.

Akrasia

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Can they afford to be using vauable resources for pride? There's nothing to be gained and they have a tough league battle ahead of them.

Leicester playing for pride won't be enough to overcome Glasgow playing for glory. Leicester have no structure. They're rudderless. Glasgow will have the focus and a strategy to win

CatFromHue

Glasgow should win next week but they should have won yesterday too so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Akrasia

CatFromHue wrote: »

Glasgow should win next week but they should have won yesterday too so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

They were playing munster yesterday. They should have stayed in bed

errlloyd

This is the best year for the pro12 since the format changed, but I think it's the worst year of the new format. Teams getting through on 16 shouldn't be happening. Particularly if montpellier get through on purely home wins having had some brutal away form. I just don't think it's a great how some teams can play so badly and get out of the group.

irishbucsfan

errlloyd wrote: »

This is the best year for the pro12 since the format changed, but I think it's the worst year of the new format. Teams getting through on 16 shouldn't be happening. Particularly if montpellier get through on purely home wins having had some brutal away form. I just don't think it's a great how some teams can play so badly and get out of the group.

Well 8/20 instead of 8/24 means that relatively weaker teams will get through, but the overall quality of teams on average is increased.

But this really has nothing to do with the format, the French and in particular the English teams are just much weaker than they were.

CatFromHue

The teams that have qualified, I include Wasps here as I can't see them losing to Zebre, are the current top of the Top14, the top and second placed team in the Aviva, and the second and third placed team in the Pro12 so all very good teams.

on the other hand it's easier, in theory, to get out of your group as a second placed team now than the old comp as you've 3 second placed teams from 5 groups compared to 2 from 6 groups.

Montpellier are third in the Top 14. Actually Connacht are the only team not in the top 6 in their league who could qualify but then they've got the Italian team in their group.

molloyjh

Some serious underperforming from a few clubs (Racing, Toulon, Leicester and Northampton particularly) has led to the reduction in points required. It's been a poor year for the competition really but it will be interesting to see the next couple of seasons. There appears to be a bit of a gap appearing in the AP between the top couple of sides and everyone else. That's not good for the AP or the CC. Hopefully it's just a short term thing.

Neil3030

I maintain that many of the teams we are seeing in a state of regression were teams that relied heavily on physicality during their hayday. Teams like Leinster, Wasps and Glasgow no longer get blown off the park by the likes of Toulon and Montpellier. Even Scarlets today gave Saracens a real contest up front. The smart teams got bigger, but the big teams didn't get any smarter.

Tigerandahalf

Given how poor Leicester are showing up you wonder about Munster losing over there.

Munster have made great strides but their gameplan is still very limited. A dogged side with a good scrum and lineout will challenge them.

Too much of their gameplan revolves around aggression at the gainline. There is very little flair or creativity about them.

They are also very reliant on John Ryan staying fit at TH plus neither of their LHs has fully convinced in the scrum. Which of them is Erasmus' 1st choice?

At least Saili is back and he is the one player that could add something.

Rory Scanell is limited enough in the 12 channel. He is a good game manager with his kicks to touch but doesn't offer enough grunt perhaps from the 12 position. Perhaps Taute and Saili would offer more and get over the gainline more.

I suppose Munster's gameplan has always been pretty limited relying on a dominant pack.

A good positive for Munster has been the fitness of Donncha Ryan. Hope he stays fit for the season now as he has had a bad run with injuries. He could force Henderson onto the bench for Ire especially with Dillane out injured Henderson might offer more from the bench than Ryan.

The real decline is with the French teams. So many of their teams now have only 2 or 3 French players and their traditional running style is dead. Too much money in the game in France is ruining the prospects of young players being nurtured through. Carter is getting crazy money but looks disinterested. Too many average SH players in the French league too.