Champions Cup permutations 2016/17 after Round 4

Former Former

A Toulon win here would see Leinster finish 3rd. That would give us a semifinal in Dublin against Munster. That is good.

However, it would also mean we would face Toulon in the quarters (rather than Wasps if Sarries win).

On balance, a Toulon win is better but it's not clear cut.

errlloyd

It's not that simple, we might fact Glasgow.

vienne86

Former Former wrote: »

A Toulon win here would see Leinster finish 3rd. That would give us a semifinal in Dublin against Munster. That is good.

However, it would also mean we would face Toulon in the quarters (rather than Wasps if Sarries win).

On balance, a Toulon win is better but it's not clear cut.

I'd love a cut at Toulon in Dublin.

errlloyd

Toulon stupid errors are a pain.

Former Former

errlloyd wrote: »

It's not that simple, we might fact Glasgow.

I'm discounting the possibility of a BP win for Glasgow. I'm also discounting a win for Racing.

matthew8

errlloyd wrote: »

It's not that simple, we might fact Glasgow.

Or Connacht or Toulouse or Wasps.

errlloyd

Former Former wrote: »

I'm discounting the possibility of a BP win for Glasgow. I'm also discounting a win for Racing.

Ah I didn't realise they were actually ahead of Glasgow before this game.

vienne86

Toulon keep blowing chances. They seem determined not to win!

Former Former

vienne86 wrote: »

Toulon keep blowing chances. They seem determined not to win!

Maybe they know an LBP is enough to qualify and they're sticking rigidly to the plan.

vienne86

Try Saracens - deserved, in fairness. Toulon are knackered.

gamma001

When I thought I couldn't possibly hate Toulon more, I find out Chris Ashton is joining them next year.

vienne86

gamma001 wrote: »

When I thought I couldn't possibly hate Toulon more, I find out Chris Ashton is joining them next year.

You just got that post in ahead of me!!!! They deserve each other.

Neil3030

Awful call by Nigel.

Peregrine

gamma001 wrote: »

When I thought I couldn't possibly hate Toulon more, I find out Chris Ashton is joining them next year.

Yeah but Saracens signed Calum Clark.

vienne86

OK. If Toulon lose, I don't want them getting a losing BP.

errlloyd

Toulon are really bad at retaining possession.

vienne86

errlloyd wrote: »

Toulon are really bad at retaining possession.

The way they're playing now, they don't deserve anything from this match. They need to wake up.

Great kick by 1/2p though.

ongarite

Whats the permutations now if the score stays this way?

errlloyd

Toulon 8th seeds, would play Clermont away in the quarter.

vienne86

errlloyd wrote: »

Toulon 8th seeds, would play Clermont away in the quarter.

7th I think.

gamma001

errlloyd wrote: »

Toulon 8th seeds, would play Clermont away in the quarter.

If they win that, leinster could potentially have to go to Toulon (again!!!) if they make it through the quarters.

errlloyd

vienne86 wrote: »

7th I think.

Was assuming Glasgow win.

Peregrine

ongarite wrote: »

Whats the permutations now if the score stays this way?

Clermont 26
Munster (assuming they beat Racing with a TBP later) 25
Saracens 24
Leinster 23
Wasps 22 (assuming they whip Zebre later)
-
Toulon 16
Montpellier 16


Yet to play uncertain matches:
Connacht 18
Glasgow 14
Toulouse 14

If two of those three qualify, Montpellier drops out and Toulon becomes 8th seed. If one of them qualify, Toulon becomes 7th and Montpellier makes 8th. Connacht and Toulouse can't both qualify.

errlloyd

Basteraud has had the best 4 minutes of his career.

vienne86

Peregrine wrote: »

Clermont 26
Munster (assuming they beat Racing with a TBP later) 25
Saracens 24
Leinster 23
Wasps 22 (assuming they whip Zebre later)
-
Toulon 16
Montpellier 16


Yet to play uncertain matches:
Connacht 18
Glasgow 14
Toulouse 14

If two of those three qualify, Montpellier drops out and Toulon becomes 8th seed.

Connacht and Toulouse can't both qualify.

Peregrine

vienne86 wrote: »

Connacht and Toulouse can't both qualify.

Ninja-edited a few caveats :P

errlloyd

Just realised that a draw would give Wasps a good chance at being at home to Saracens.

kittyeater102

A draw between Sarries and Toulon will set up Leinster Munster semi final

razorblunt

My word that tackle from Rhodes on Giteau.

Dave_The_Sheep

razorblunt wrote: »

My word that tackle from Rhodes on Giteau.

"If its not a trysaver its a high tackle"...


... then it's a damn high tackle and potential penalty try.

vienne86

Ugh.....I would have preferred a draw.

.....and 1/2p p misses!

errlloyd

How did Toulon not score. Ridiculous, also Nigel needs to be better.

pickarooney

What possessed Toulon to kick that?

kittyeater102

Why didn't Toulon go for the try? They already had one point why not go for the draw and get two match points? Sure one point won't be enough if Toulouse and Glasgow win. Poor game management

Peregrine

pickarooney wrote: »

What possessed Toulon to kick that?

It won't really make a difference if they qualify on 16 or 17 points.

whatawaster

kittyeater102 wrote: »

Why didn't Toulon go for the try? They already had one point why not go for the draw and get two match points? Sure one point won't be enough if Toulouse and Glasgow win. Poor game management

what if they go for a try and Saracens get a breakaway try. Toulon would be out.

Buer

Yes it will. They're through now regardless of scores elsewhere.

Peregrine

If Toulouse and Glasgow win, Toulon would still be 8th even if they had got a draw here. Same situation if Glasgow and Connacht win. If only one of them win. they'll be 7th no thanks to getting a draw. Smart choice.

pickarooney

Peregrine wrote: »

It won't really make a difference if they qualify on 16 or 17 points.

Still, you have to go for the best result regardless, no?

Peregrine

pickarooney wrote: »

Still, you have to go for the best result regardless, no?

Yeah but there's no gain and at what risk?

kittyeater102

Peregrine wrote: »

Yeah but there's no gain and at what risk?

The gain is you avoid clermont away

Peregrine

kittyeater102 wrote: »

The gain is you avoid clermont away

How would a draw change that? They're getting Clermont away anyway. Draw or LBP.


Unless only one of Connacht, Toulouse and Glasgow qualify but getting a draw wouldn't have helped with that.

pickarooney

Peregrine wrote: »

Yeah but there's no gain and at what risk?

Running the penalty and getting turned over or missing the kick and giving them possession is much of a muchness.

Peregrine

Glasgow have the bonus point.

Clermont 26
Munster 24
Saracens 24
Leinster 23
Wasps 22 (assuming they whip Zebre later)
Glasgow 19
Toulon 16


One of these two can also qualify:
Connacht 18
Toulouse 14

If Toulouse wins with a BP or Connacht qualify with a LBP, I can't really say if Glasgow will be 7th or 6th. Depends on how many points they rack up. There's a chance Munster will have a home QF against Connacht.

alwald

So if I take into consideration that Wasps will get a BP tomorrow, add to it that the Munster's result will remain the same, we will have the following 3 possible scenarios (I hope my math is correct, I am open for corrections):


Scenario 1 (Connacht Gets a LBP or draws)
Clermont 26 points
Saracens 24 points
Munster 24 points
Leinster 23 points
Wasps 22 points
Connacht 19 points with a LBP and 20 points with a draw
Glasgow 19 points
Toulon 16 points

Clermont VS Toulon
Saracens VS Glasgow
Munster VS Connacht
Leinster VS Wasps

Scenario 2 (Toulouse wins without a BP and by depriving Connacht from a LBP)
Clermont 26 points
Saracens 24 points
Munster 24 points
Leinster 23 points
Wasps 22 points
Glasgow 19 points
Toulouse 18 points
Toulon 16 points

Clermont VS Toulon
Saracens VS Toulouse
Munster VS Glasgow
Leinster VS Wasps

Scenario 3 (Toulouse wins with a BP)
Clermont 26 points
Saracens 24 points
Munster 24 points
Leinster 23 points
Wasps 22 points
Glasgow 19 points
Toulouse 19 points
Toulon 16 points

Clermont VS Toulon
Saracens VS Toulouse
Munster VS Glasgow
Leinster VS Wasps

* In all the above scenarios Munster can overtake Saracens based on the final result of the match
** In Scenario 3 there is a possibility to Toulouse ahead of Glasgow
*** In scenario 1 Connacht and Glasgow can swap places

sydthebeat

Connacht and Toulouse draw knocks Toulon out??

Edit: nope, sure only one can get through behind wasps

Peregrine

sydthebeat wrote: »

Connacht and Toulouse draw knocks Toulon out??

The last 3 spots are between the runners up from each pool. So Connacht would be runner up and they'd claim the QF spot.

webels

If munster win by 10 or greater do they get 2nd seed?

Peregrine

webels wrote: »

If munster win by 10 or greater do they get 2nd seed?

Yes. Or with a TBP.

pickarooney

You seem to have missed out scenario 4 where Connacht win. Is it the same as a narrow loss?