January 2017 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT at 5.5 with the second week 6.1, which was 0.9 above normal.

PRC still running low, 61% after the second week almost matched the first week at 63%.

SUN now at 127% of normal, the second week averaged 115% but was closer to 150% away from the cloudier southwest.

MAX and MIN continue unchanged.

M.T. Cranium

Now after three weeks ...

IMT at 5.8(4) with the third week 6.6, 1.4 above average (the last two days were colder so the IMT peaked at 6.0 back on the 19th).

PRC has fallen to a very low 42% after an almost dry week (5% of normal).

SUN is at 124% with this past week 118% (despite the two Dublin area stations only recording 49% each).

MAX and MIN were unmoved by the experience.

This coming week looks somewhat milder again, with near normal rain and perhaps not that much sunshine, so by end of week four we may be looking at 6.0, 55-60 per cent PRC and closer to 110% sunshine? Max could be nudged up a bit too.

Joe Public

I clicked "thanks" even though I don't like it

sryanbruen

Joe Public wrote: »

I clicked "thanks" even though I don't like it

You clicked because you appreciate MT's hard work and so do I.

M.T. Cranium

I've done some hard work in my time, and this doesn't qualify, in fact it barely makes the criterion of easy work.

M.T. Cranium

Could be that I will do some hard time for my work though.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Could be that I will do some hard time for my work though.

Hey any work you do on this forum is very appreciable and you do an amazing job.

M.T. Cranium

A new MAX of 12.9 was recorded at Shannon on the 24th. It remained intact through the 25th.

M.T. Cranium

So after four weeks and me almost forgetting to update ...

IMT at 5.9(4) with the fourth week 6.2, which is 1.0 above the normal. Can't see much change but figure on 6.0 since anything much higher than that will round up to at least 5.96.

PRC remains low, 45% for the month and 53% for the past week. This will come up a bit probably finishing in the 50s.

SUN is at 123% after another rather sunny week (119.5% on average). This could leak a few points, not sure if there's much sunshine to be had today or next two days. Normal is only about 1.5 hours a day so it can't drop much.

MAX now 12.9, MIN same as before.

M.T. Cranium

Final numbers confirmed:

IMT 6.0 (right on the button)

PRC 54% (only Cork at 83% and Valentia 96% much above that, some locations were under 40%)

and these were just confirmed at 1100h Thursday with MS available on met-ie website:

MAX 12.9

MIN --5.7

SUN 120% (adjusted slightly from 118%, a few scores will change by 1 pt)

So here's a look at now final scoring.


Final scoring for January 2017


FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ Bonus _____ TOTALS

pauldry ___________ 22 _ 10 _ 18 _ 08*_ 07 ____ 9 _______ 74
mickger844posts(-2)_ 19 _ 11 _ 17 _ 11*_ 10 ____ 8 __ 76-2=74
Jpmarn ___________ 18 _ 06 _ 18 _ 13*_ 09 ____ 6 _______ 70
Tae laidir __________24 _ 11 _ 14 _ 02*_ 07 ___ 10 _______ 68
200motels__ (-5) ___ 20 _ 10 _ 15 _ 09*_ 10 ____ 5 __ 69-5=64

Con Sensus ________ 18 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 6 _______ 59

John Mac __________16 _ 09 _ 17 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 3 _______ 58
Lumi _____________ 19 _ 11 _ 12 _ 05*_ 04 ____ 6 _______ 57
Rameire _ (-3) _____ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 07*_ 07 ____ 3 __ 60-3=57
dasa29 ___________ 13 _ 11 _ 18 _ 03*_ 08 ____ 2 _______ 55
Rikand ____________25 _ 00 _ 07 _ 04*_ 08 ___ 10 _______ 54
Kindred Spirit ______ 15 _ 09 _ 17 _ 01*_ 07 ____ 5 _______ 54
M.T. Cranium ______ 24 _ 04 _ 02 _ 15*_ 04 ____ 4 _______ 53
MrSkinner _________ 17 _ 04 _ 19 _ 04*_ 04 ____ 2 _______ 50
waterways _________23 _ 10 _ 00 _ 00*_ 07 ____ 9 _______ 49
Bsal ______________ 06 _ 19 _ 07 _ 07*_ 06 ____ 4 _______ 49
DOCARCH __________14 _ 17 _ 04 _ 04*_ 07 ____ 1 _______ 47
Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 17 _ 01 _ 05 _ 10*_ 08 ____ 7 __ 48-2=46
Sunflower 3 ________ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 05*_ 05 ____ 8 _______ 45
sryanbruen _________09 _ 09 _ 00 _ 14*_ 10 ____ 1 _______ 43

NormaL ___________ 19 _ 04 _ 07 _ 02*_ 06 ____ 5 _______ 43

Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 04 _ 10 _ 00 _ 13*_ 07 ____ 7 __ 41-5=36
__________________________

* slight adjustments upward on all scores, not enough accuracy on high score to invoke the limited mercy rule (and it would have been just 1-2 pts different for the entire field anyway)

In general, a fairly good month for scoring and not a big range of scores really, would imagine our lower scorers might be dropping this one out eventually, so on that basis, very close. Congrats to Pauldry and mickger844posts who tied for high score at 74, JPmarn in third at 70.


(for later confirmation, forecasts ...)

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 8th

Jpmarn ___________ 6.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.5 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 8.5
Tae laidir __________6.1 _ 13.8 _ --5.1 _ 100 _ 107 ___ 10.0
Rikand ____________6.0 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.5
M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 050 _ 150 ____ 7.7
waterways _________5.8 _ 13.9 _ --9.5 _ 120 _ 103 ____ 9.8
pauldry ___________ 5.7 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 9.7
Rameire _ (-3) _____ 5.7 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 6.5
200motels__ (-5) ___ 5.5 _ 11.9 _ --6.2 _ 083 _ 121 ____ 8.2

NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 8.2

Lumi ______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 092 ____ 8.5
mickger844posts_(-2)_5.4 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.2

Con Sensus _________5.3 _ 13.9 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 8.5

Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 5.2 _ 14.8 _ --7.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 8.9
MrSkinner __________5.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.6 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 4.8
John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 6.2
Sunflower 3 ________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 095 ____ 9.5
Kindred Spirit _______5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 8.0
DOCARCH __________4.9 _ 13.2 _ --7.3 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 3.7
dasa29 ____________ 4.8 _ 12.0 _ --5.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 4.5
sryanbruen _________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 070 _ 120 ____ 4.2
Bsal _______________4.1 _ 13.0 _ --7.0 _ 085 _ 101 ____ 7.0
Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 3.9 _ 13.9 _ --8.9 _ 075 _ 135 ____ 8.9

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Final numbers confirmed:

IMT 6.0 (right on the button)

PRC 54% (only Cork at 83% and Valentia 96% much above that, some locations were under 40%)

and these await confirmation:

MAX 12.9

MIN --5.7

SUN 118%

So here's a look at provisional scoring that will be adjusted where necessary after I can check the unconfirmed estimates in the Monthly Summary (tomorrow).


Provisional scoring for January 2017


FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ Bonus _____ TOTALS

pauldry ___________ 22 _ 10 _ 18 _ 08*_ 08 ____ 9 _______ 75
mickger844posts(-2)_ 19 _ 11 _ 17 _ 11*_ 10 ____ 8 __ 76-2=74
Jpmarn ___________ 18 _ 06 _ 18 _ 13*_ 09 ____ 6 _______ 70
Tae laidir __________24 _ 11 _ 14 _ 02*_ 08 ___ 10 _______ 69
200motels__ (-5) ___ 20 _ 10 _ 15 _ 09*_ 09 ____ 5 __ 68-5=63

Con Sensus ________ 18 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 6 _______ 59

Lumi _____________ 19 _ 11 _ 12 _ 05*_ 05 ____ 6 _______ 58
John Mac __________16 _ 09 _ 17 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 3 _______ 58
Rameire _ (-3) _____ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 07*_ 07 ____ 3 __ 60-3=57
dasa29 ___________ 13 _ 11 _ 18 _ 03*_ 08 ____ 2 _______ 55
Rikand ____________25 _ 00 _ 07 _ 04*_ 08 ___ 10 _______ 54
Kindred Spirit ______ 15 _ 09 _ 17 _ 01*_ 07 ____ 5 _______ 54
M.T. Cranium ______ 24 _ 04 _ 02 _ 15*_ 04 ____ 4 _______ 53
MrSkinner _________ 17 _ 04 _ 19 _ 04*_ 04 ____ 2 _______ 50
waterways _________23 _ 10 _ 00 _ 00*_ 07 ____ 9 _______ 49
Bsal ______________ 06 _ 19 _ 07 _ 07*_ 06 ____ 4 _______ 49
DOCARCH __________14 _ 17 _ 04 _ 04*_ 07 ____ 1 _______ 47
Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 17 _ 01 _ 05 _ 10*_ 08 ____ 7 __ 48-2=46
Sunflower 3 ________ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 05*_ 05 ____ 8 _______ 45
sryanbruen _________09 _ 09 _ 00 _ 14*_ 10 ____ 1 _______ 43

NormaL ___________ 19 _ 04 _ 07 _ 02*_ 06 ____ 5 _______ 43

Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 04 _ 10 _ 00 _ 13*_ 07 ____ 7 __ 41-5=36
__________________________

* slight adjustments upward on all scores, not enough accuracy on high score to invoke the limited mercy rule (and it would have been just 1-2 pts different for the entire field anyway)

In general, a fairly good month for scoring and not a big range of scores really, would imagine our lower scorers might be dropping this one out eventually, so on that basis, very close. Watch for the updated table to appear tomorrow. I hope the changes will be very minor. Congrats to Pauldry and mickger844posts at the moment.


(for later confirmation, forecasts ...)

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 8th

Jpmarn ___________ 6.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.5 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 8.5
Tae laidir __________6.1 _ 13.8 _ --5.1 _ 100 _ 107 ___ 10.0
Rikand ____________6.0 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.5
M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 050 _ 150 ____ 7.7
waterways _________5.8 _ 13.9 _ --9.5 _ 120 _ 103 ____ 9.8
pauldry ___________ 5.7 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 9.7
Rameire _ (-3) _____ 5.7 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 6.5
200motels__ (-5) ___ 5.5 _ 11.9 _ --6.2 _ 083 _ 121 ____ 8.2

NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 8.2

Lumi ______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 092 ____ 8.5
mickger844posts_(-2)_5.4 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.2

Con Sensus _________5.3 _ 13.9 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 8.5

Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 5.2 _ 14.8 _ --7.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 8.9
MrSkinner __________5.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.6 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 4.8
John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 6.2
Sunflower 3 ________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 095 ____ 9.5
Kindred Spirit _______5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 8.0
DOCARCH __________4.9 _ 13.2 _ --7.3 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 3.7
dasa29 ____________ 4.8 _ 12.0 _ --5.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 4.5
sryanbruen _________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 070 _ 120 ____ 4.2
Bsal _______________4.1 _ 13.0 _ --7.0 _ 085 _ 101 ____ 7.0
Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 3.9 _ 13.9 _ --8.9 _ 075 _ 135 ____ 8.9

Of course, how coincidental is that, two Januaries straight I have forecasted very poorly :P, though I'm still much better than I did in 2016 so I'm proud of myself for that :P:P.

Rikand

I thought I'd do better after nailing the imt and the bonus. Ah well

M.T. Cranium

Rikand wrote: »

I thought I'd do better after nailing the imt and the bonus. Ah well

We had the same basic problem, a reasonable MAX for a mild January but the month never drew in that sort of air mass.

So in general folks, I have finalized the scoring table above, the only very minor change was that sunshine calculated out at 120% rather than my estimate of 118% and this changed a few scores by one point up or down, not very many (most people go with multiples of 5 and those wouldn't change in this case). And I carefully checked the scoring on MAX and MIN, and added them all up one more time.

February table is posted, onwards and upwards.

Tae laidir

It was not a NormaL month!