The Thistlecrack/Gold Cup thread.

Shemale

Just looked at Paddy Powers just be warned the w/o Thistlecrack market isnt NRNB.

useurowname

It's far from a classic renewal, the fav looks a cut above at this stage. Thistlecracks jumping still would give me pause for thought, he stood right off a few of them in the kg, granted he cleared them well, but nothing got him out of his comfort zone he should have been meeting them on a perfect stride. Come March add the buzz of Cheltenham, the bustle of that race and Dickie Johnson on a tough, accurate jumper like Native River and I'll take 5/1 all day long.

Gamebred

Native river is a good jumping handicapper, wont beat Djakadam or Cue Card never mind the favourite the thing was all out to beat caroles destrier.

qwabercd

Gamebred wrote: »

Native river is a good jumping handicapper, wont beat Djakadam or Cue Card never mind the favourite the thing was all out to beat caroles destrier.

Lto native river beat Carole's destrier by 45 lengths (was giving a few pounds both times).

Gamebred

qwabercd wrote: »

Lto native river beat Carole's destrier by 45 lengths (was giving a few pounds both times).

Clearly wasnt its running anyone with half a brain could decipher that.

BumperD

Native river won't be far away.

useurowname

Handicapper or not Natve Rivers last two runs have been very impressive. The King George was a weak renewal, the two horses behind Thistlecrack are both well past it and imo flattered Thistlecrack. The reason I'd take Native River in the GC is I feel his jumping while visually impressive in the KG is still a little sketchy. I certainly wouldn't be taking odds on.

danganabu

Loving all the doubters! If I get odds against on the day, I'll be wadeing in.

djPSB

The plot thickens.

prettyboy81

He won't see out The Gold Cup trip. Bridle horse and found wanting when the whip was produced!

mdwexford

Going to be some shake up in the market now.

I fear for Gamebred.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Ben Gadot

First time the odd mistake was seized upon.

Wouldn't call him a bridle horse though, a horse that dismissed a horse like Cue Card so easily deserves more respect than that.

Gamebred

Outstayed by a head by a national winner on soft ground, will keep backing him for march.

BumperD

When I first watched the King George live, I thought he was slowing at the line, then watched replay and saw scu eased him, thats why the pack closed and ran through the line. But maybe he just gets 3m and stamina a doubt?

I was following him & if his bubble has bursed, I am saddened as he is so exciting

uxiant

The form of the King George was muck and ran in a bad time. The public built Thistlecrack up as unbeatable but the form never suggested anything of the like. Cue Card clearly didn't run to form that day.

yaboya1

You shouldn't have any trouble getting odds against on the day now. Not that there was ever a doubt of that.

Shemale

9/4 now, looks like he needs a more positive ride

Shemale

Shemale wrote: »

9/4 now, looks like he needs a more positive ride

11/4 Betfair SB

Ben Gadot

uxiant wrote: »

Cue Card clearly didn't run to form that day.

I've always found that line of argument cringe worthy.

The horse came into the KG seemingly in peak form and there was nothing to suggest there was anything awry.

prettyboy81

mdwexford wrote: »

They usually go a good gallop in the gold cup but there is chances to get a breather in going down the hill, the ground will most likely be better as well. The trip is not an issue.



Stupid posts dont deserve any more but sure anyway.

He is a stayers hurdle winner who has won over 3 miles and 3miles 1/2 furlong countless times, mostly with his head in his chest. To say he wont stay 3m2 1/2f is ridiculous.

Saying hes a bridle horse is hilarious.

Guess you stuck him in todays bet eh.

Nope not pocket talk. Yes he has won a stayers hurdle & won races at 3 miles but when the push came to shove for the 1st time today over fences at G1 level he didn't find off the bridle.

mdwexford

uxiant wrote: »

The thing is over hurdles he was winning races miles out. This season over fences he's been keen, exuberant and not exactly shaping as a stayer. Was it his class that was winning those races over staying trips last season and maybe a staying trip isn't exactly ideal for him?

I have been saying all season he has been under priced for what hes achieved over fences . The hype went into over-drive after the King George. Hes a very good horse who has been putting in some novicey jumps. Having him odds on for March was crazy.

I still think he will go close in the gold cup and 5/2 is a fair price now.

He is pretty head strong and you can get away with that a bit more over hurdles. Constantly jumping fences big uses energy over 3 miles. I dont think the trip is the problem. Hes just an inexperienced novice chaser.

uxiant

Ben Gadot wrote: »

I've always found that line of argument cringe worthy.

The horse came into the KG seemingly in peak form and there was nothing to suggest there was anything awry.

How do you explain him finishing alongside a finished Silviniaco Conti and a 153 rated Tea for Two then? Horses aren't machines and you can't expect them to run to form every time.

kfallon

mdwexford wrote: »

He is a stayers hurdle winner who has won over 3 miles and 3miles 1/2 furlong countless times, mostly with his head in his chest. To say he wont stay 3m2 1/2f is ridiculous.

To be fair there have been horses in the past who have got 3m but not the extra 2f of the Gold Cup, Florida Pearl being an example.

Not saying it applies to Thistlecrack at all but it has been known to happen.

Anyway todays result is great for both points of view, if you're a fan you can get 5/2 now to win GC, if you're against Thistlecrack todays race has shown he's beatable!

kfallon

uxiant wrote: »

How do you explain him finishing alongside a finished Silviniaco Conti and a 153 rated Tea for Two then? Horses aren't machines and you can't expect them to run to form every time.

My thoughts are that CC is on the wain, wouldn't be surprised to see him retired after a disappointing run in GC

Gamebred

Will get 3/1 now and I'll smash into it.

mdwexford

Ben Gadot wrote: »

I've always found that line of argument cringe worthy.


The horse came into the KG seemingly in peak form and there was nothing to suggest there was anything awry.

But if Cue Card ran to his mark of 176, Thistlecrack was 3 1/4 lengths ahead and was eased down. That would mean Thitlecrack ran to a mark of about 185 which is unlikely.

Also the 153 rated Tea For Two was only beaten 4 lengths.

prettyboy81 wrote: »

Nope not pocket talk. Yes he has won a stayers hurdle & won races at 3 miles but when the push came to shove for the 1st time today over fences at G1 level he didn't find off the bridle.

They arent machines, the all lose at some stage.

He was against a very strong stayer whos only rated 5lbs his inferior. The jumping errors would have used a lot of energy.

He also probably isnt as good as some people thought. He is still the horse to beat in the gold cup.

Gamebred

Learned plenty today, will stand to him.

mdwexford

kfallon wrote: »

To be fair there have been horses in the past who have got 3m but not the extra 2f of the Gold Cup, Florida Pearl being an example.

Not saying it applies to Thistlecrack at all but it has been known to happen.

Anyway todays result is great for both points of view, if you're a fan you can get 5/2 now to win GC, if you're against Thistlecrack todays race has shown he's beatable!

Well Florida Pearl was the ultimate example but I cant think of many more that extreme. FP hated Cheltenham as well.

Nothing in Thistlecracks previous runs or anything about him suggests it wont suit. Id be shocked if thats what stops him winning in March.

Today certainly makes things interesting!

sting60

sting60 wrote: »

"Flying machine" really don't buy into the serious hype myself facts say I'm correct at the moment.

Timeform rated his King George victory at 180p goes to show they really are a bunch of tossers.Might Bite was quicker at every point from four out and getting progressively quicker than Thistlecrack and yet Timeform rated that run 26lbs below Thistlecracks run.

corny

Thought Thistlecrack lost little in defeat myself. I was one of the doubters of the King George form but despite today i'd probably back him at 5/2- 3/1.

A little improvement in his jumping mid race and he would have put daylight between himself and Many Clouds when asked for an effort. As it was Scudamore just used up too much horse constantly closing the gap down the back straight. He can improve on that and the better ground should help.

yaboya1

mdwexford wrote: »

kfallon wrote: »

To be fair there have been horses in the past who have got 3m but not the extra 2f of the Gold Cup, Florida Pearl being an example.

Not saying it applies to Thistlecrack at all but it has been known to happen.

Anyway todays result is great for both points of view, if you're a fan you can get 5/2 now to win GC, if you're against Thistlecrack todays race has shown he's beatable!

Well Florida Pearl was the ultimate example but I cant think of many more that extreme. FP hated Cheltenham as well.

Nothing in Thistlecracks previous runs or anything about him suggests it wont suit. Id be shocked if thats what stops him winning in March.

Today certainly makes things interesting!

Wayward Lad & One Man are two other good examples. KG winners for whom the Gold Cup trip was just a bridge too far.

Florida Pearl hated Cheltenham? Couldn't agree with that. He won twice at the festival and placed in two Gold Cups. Like the horses above, just didn't see out the GC trip.

Gamebred

How did he not stay? he was bet a head in soft ground by a proven stayer ffs, beaten by a better horse on the day after some errors.

kksaints

yaboya1 wrote: »

Wayward Lad & One Man are two other good examples. KG winners for whom the Gold Cup trip was just a bridge too far.

Florida Pearl hated Cheltenham? Couldn't agree with that. He won twice at the festival and placed in two Gold Cups. Like the horses above, just didn't see out the GC trip.

What a horse One Man was but he ran some bizzare races in the RSA and Gold Cup. Travelled really powerfully but he just stopped in the last two furlongs in both races.

Pinesky

corny wrote: »

Thought Thistlecrack lost little in defeat myself. I was one of the doubters of the King George form but despite today i'd probably back him at 5/2- 3/1.

A little improvement in his jumping mid race and he would have put daylight between himself and Many Clouds when asked for an effort. As it was Scudamore just used up too much horse constantly closing the gap down the back straight. He can improve on that and the better ground should help.

I have to agree . He lost very little in defeat . I thought PS was very nervous not sure what to do . Repeated closing the gap . Today's performance wouldn't put me off backing him .

corny

Pinesky wrote: »

I have to agree . He lost very little in defeat . I thought PS was very nervous not sure what to do . Repeated closing the gap . Today's performance wouldn't put me off backing him .

Is it a stretch to say its a better performance than the King George?

I know its not as simple as this but....Thistlecrack had SC 3 and half lengths behind at Kempton. Today he had him 27 lengths behind. Smad Place, who is a good yardstick, was 17 lengths in arrears.

mdwexford

yaboya1 wrote: »

Wayward Lad & One Man are two other good examples. KG winners for whom the Gold Cup trip was just a bridge too far.

Florida Pearl hated Cheltenham? Couldn't agree with that. He won twice at the festival and placed in two Gold Cups. Like the horses above, just didn't see out the GC trip.

They were both before my day, never saw them run.

Yes of course you are right, should have said hated the gold cup trip. My mistake.

sting60

As per the times taken in the King George against novice race an hour previous it clearly shows that run by Thistlecrack was seriously over hyped especially by Timeform.Todays run was a shocker beaten by a horse that needs extreme distances and simply says he won't win a Gold cup.If the O'Leary's enter four or five and kill the pace up front Thistlecrack wont stay and will do well to finish in top three.I have believed since Kempton that he doesn't stay and today confirmed that. Mo

Motivator

If there was ever a day he was going to get beaten, today was it. Up against seasoned horses who like to get on with things up front and who have done it all before. Colin Tizzard didn't seem confident before the race but it has to be said he didn't look too disappointed (due to many clouds) after it. He'll have learned more today than he has in the last 6 months.

Will he win a Gold Cup? I thought so, I don't any more. Is there that much improvement in him when the ground comes good? I don't think so and I think the good ground will go against him in March. He's very exhuberant and i think the gold cup pace will floor him - either literally or he'll empty coming up the hill. There's every chance he's a non stayer, fellas can call it nonsense all they like but he got his first test today and didn't get home. Considering his rating he should have won with his head in his chest today. I think at this stage he's a fair price for the gold cup now but I still won't be in any rush to plough into him. The best thing to happen to the gold cup was him being beaten today - it throws the whole thing wide open and makes for an interesting and exciting 6 weeks ahead.

The gold cup looked a foregone conclusion this morning now looks like it could be anyone's race. Can't wait for it!

BumperD

Thistlecrack didn't run well at all today. Sky'd some fences again like he did in the past, had has nose on the floor at another and was not really comfortable at many others. Despite that, he still had the class to be bang there at the finish. Maybe the good ground will help him in March but hummmm .......

Panrich

Doran's Pride was another who got 3m well ( also a stayers hurdle winner) who didn't quite get the gold cup trip.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

tryfix

No doubt about it that was not the kind of performance that says Gold Cup winner. He got to the front and was outstayed ( maybe outsped considering that it was only 3 miles and 1/2f today ).

Smad Place beaten 17l today was beaten 38L in the Gold Cup and Many Clouds was beaten 25L in Coneygree's Gold Cup so the form of the race today wasn't near Gold Cup winning level.

Wonder was he fully primed today?

kenco

Agreed with those who think it wasnt a GC performance.....but....

Not exactly a vintage year and maybe this horse - who is special - might just have to stay up? My thoughts after today is that its possible Thistlecrack could fall or unseat (this is a novice dont forget) on the big day. What odds make that attractive is debatable but the Irish Gold Cup result could make things very interesting....

Sad to see the demise of Many Clouds but seems there were close calls in the past so seems the number was up one day or the other.....

HarshOstrich

In the same race last year smad place beat many clouds 12 lengths in receipt of 4 pounds but today off level weights smad place turned the form around and was 17 lengths ahead of smad place.
I am of the opinion many clouds was better than ever this season and I fully expected him to give thistlecrack a race but I didn't expect him to win.

useurowname

Thistlecrack ran his race today, beaten fair and square by a better chaser. I never rated the King George form, Cue Card well past his best and Silvianaco Conti is further past it. Thistlecracks jumping still an issue and will continue to be, for all his power he just isn't accurate. He doesn't jump and travel efficiently it's all too dramatic for my liking, but he could still win what is shaping like a poor Gold Cup.

mdwexford

sting60 wrote: »

As per the times taken in the King George against novice race an hour previous it clearly shows that run by Thistlecrack was seriously over hyped especially by Timeform.Todays run was a shocker beaten by a horse that needs extreme distances and simply says he won't win a Gold cup.If the O'Leary's enter four or five and kill the pace up front Thistlecrack wont stay and will do well to finish in top three.I have believed since Kempton that he doesn't stay and today confirmed that. Mo

Run was not a shocker by any means.

Many Clouds didnt need extreme distances just because he won the National. He won this race two years ago for a start and the Hennessy before that.

Motivator wrote: »

If there was ever a day he was going to get beaten, today was it. Up against seasoned horses who like to get on with things up front and who have done it all before. Colin Tizzard didn't seem confident before the race but it has to be said he didn't look too disappointed (due to many clouds) after it. He'll have learned more today than he has in the last 6 months.

Will he win a Gold Cup? I thought so, I don't any more. Is there that much improvement in him when the ground comes good? I don't think so and I think the good ground will go against him in March. He's very exhuberant and i think the gold cup pace will floor him - either literally or he'll empty coming up the hill. There's every chance he's a non stayer, fellas can call it nonsense all they like but he got his first test today and didn't get home. Considering his rating he should have won with his head in his chest today. I think at this stage he's a fair price for the gold cup now but I still won't be in any rush to plough into him. The best thing to happen to the gold cup was him being beaten today - it throws the whole thing wide open and makes for an interesting and exciting 6 weeks ahead.

The gold cup looked a foregone conclusion this morning now looks like it could be anyone's race. Can't wait for it!

I cant agree with the head in his chest part. Many Clouds was rated 5lbs inferior on OR and 8lbs on RPR. As you say he was against experienced chasers who have seen it all before. Its very hard for a novice to dominate horses like that.

I dont think he needs improvement necessarily, but he does need a clear round of jumping which might be impossible for him in a gold cup. If he jumped better today I think he would have eased away at the last but thats the name of the game.

useurowname

He's a nine year old novice chaser, what does that tell ya ? Forget Timeform, RPR nonsense, those boys are hack chancers who never sat on a horse, they'd sicken your arse with their stats.

mdwexford

useurowname wrote: »

He's a nine year old novice chaser, what does that tell ya ? Forget Timeform, RPR nonsense, those boys are hack chancers who never sat on a horse, they'd sicken your arse with their stats.

That he had some injuries and they kept him hurdling an extra year for a crack at the World Hurdle.

Yeah all ratings are nonsense sure. You dont have to have sat on a horse to judge form. Same as you dont have to have played football to know about tactics.

useurowname

That he wasn't a natural over fences so he stayed at the hurdles, and he still isn't