Catalan independence referendum, 2017

CruelCoin

Isn't there a clause in EU treaties that allows for self-determination?

Why is that right not being afforded to the Catalans?

An Ciarraioch

September 17th: Poll predicts turnout of 53%
September 20th: Police activities begin.
Now: Poll predicts turnout of 63%!

http://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/politica/sondeo-GAPS-preve-participacion-referendum_0_691531939.html

Inquitus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

September 17th: Poll predicts turnout of 53%
September 20th: Police activities begin.
Now: Poll predicts turnout of 63%!

http://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/politica/sondeo-GAPS-preve-participacion-referendum_0_691531939.html

63% isn't enough really to be a definitive result, unless its 80/20 in favour or similar.

josip

Inquitus wrote: »

63% isn't enough really to be a definitive result, unless its 80/20 in favour or similar.

Why would it need 80/20?
Brexit was seen as definitive with a 52-48 split and a 72% turnout.

LeinsterDub

CruelCoin wrote: »

Isn't there a clause in EU treaties that allows for self-determination?

Why is that right not being afforded to the Catalans?

Because it's complicated. The trouble with self-determination is that gerrymandering can lead to a yes where historically or politically it doesn't really exist. Take the north for example which was gerrymandered to produce a unionist majority when the overwhelming majority wanted to break away from the UK. This majority was also gerrymandered to exist long term thus the exclusion of 3 of the northern counties.

And that's just gerrymandering there are lots of other issues too

recedite

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Because it's complicated. The trouble with self-determination is that gerrymandering can lead to a yes where historically or politically it doesn't really exist. Take the north for example which was gerrymandered to produce a unionist majority when the overwhelming majority wanted to break away from the UK. This majority was also gerrymandered to exist long term thus the exclusion of 3 of the northern counties.

And that's just gerrymandering there are lots of other issues too

You are gerrymandering abusing the word "gerrymandering".
If only certain parts of Catalonia were selected to be part of the independence proposal, that might be gerrymandering, but that is not the case. All of it is included in the referendum.

As you correctly point out, not all of Ulster is included in NI. But that is still not "gerrymandering" IMO because there is a good reason for it. The island of Ireland was effectively seceding from the UK at the time, and the unionists quite understandably did not want to be part of a new state controlled by Sinn Fein and the RCC hierarchy. Therefore, in order to avoid a different kind of civil war (to the other one that happened anyway) it was almost certainly necessary to select those regions with a unionist majority and allow them to remain in the UK. Which is exactly what happened.

Later on in NI, there was actual gerrymandering, when the boundaries of certain boroughs were changed to help ensure a unionist majority in as many constituencies as possible.

josip

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41439787

Catalonia's high court told Google to delete the "On Votar 1-Oct" app from its application store. It said the app violated court orders to suspend the referendum.

According to the Play Store the App isn't available in Spain.
Has Google acquiesced to the courts request?
I thought it only did that in China and only then for commercial reasons?

Madagascan

josip wrote: »

Inquitus wrote: »

63% isn't enough really to be a definitive result, unless its 80/20 in favour or similar.

Why would it need 80/20?
Brexit was seen as definitive with a 52-48 split and a 72% turnout.

All of Spain should have a vote to decide.

FCIM

Madagascan wrote: »

All of Spain should have a vote to decide.

Why? That would be like insisting the whole of the UK voted on Scottish independence or the whole of the EU on Brexit. It's Catalonia's affair, and Catalonia's alone, if it wants to be independent/part of Spain.

The behaviour of the Spanish government baffles me. I suspect it is because they're frightened that if Catalonia voted for independence then other regions might be encouraged to go for it as well, particularly the Basque Country. Spain is a lot more brittle than the UK, England making up the overwhelming majority of the UK the British Establishment can feel somewhat more secure although obviously it never wanted to lose Scotland, and could slowly disintegrate, particularly should Catalonia make a success of independence. However, the indications were that the pro-union side were going to win by a good margin which Madrid could then have used to close down the talk of independence potentially for a generation at least. Now that the Catalan people are angered the potential for a yes vote is much greater. Deny people what they perceive to be their rights and they only want them more.

The potential for civil unrest tomorrow is high, especially if the Spanish police go in heavy handed. The pro-independence groups are very fervent and are unlikely to back down in front of repression from Madrid. Another worrying element is what if the vote goes for independence and Madrid, as they say they will, refuses to accept it. That could go very bad very quickly. I hope I'm wrong.

An Ciarraioch

Not sure how credible this poll is, but if true, independence would have support from more than 50% of the total Catalan population in either referendum scenario:

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15567874.Huge_upsurge_in_support_for_independence_is_revealed_in_world_exclusive_final_Catalan_poll/

FrancieBrady

You would have to conclude the Spanish authorities, by their actions, are trying to get this to become violent and then claim that the other side are the aggressors.
Standard ops.

recedite

I would liken the Madrid tactics to the way you might deal with a wasp that was annoying you. First, you ignore it for as long as possible, and hope it goes away. If that fails, you kill it. But there can be no middle ground.

If Madrid allows votes to be counted tomorrow, that is akin to antagonising the wasp by injuring it, and then letting it come back to sting you.

recedite

Actually, I forgot the third option, catch the wasp in a jar and release it somewhere else; give it waspy independence

So.... my flight gets into Barcelona tomorrow evening. I have no idea what to expect.

An Ciarraioch

The Catalans aren't noted for being violent, so you should be perfectly fine, just take the usual precautions around large crowds.

FCIM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You would have to conclude the Spanish authorities, by their actions, are trying to get this to become violent and then claim that the other side are the aggressors.
Standard ops.

Quite possibly but I think they're playing with fire and are creating fertile ground for riots at best and potentially the emergence of a guerilla organisation if they physically repress the vote then don't respect the verdict.

EagererBeaver

Deleted User wrote: »

So.... my flight gets into Barcelona tomorrow evening. I have no idea what to expect.

If you're not going into the city, you'll be fine.

If you're going into the city... you'll be fine.

FCIM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So.... my flight gets into Barcelona tomorrow evening. I have no idea what to expect.

Having said that I think civil unrest is strongly possible, with common sense it won't affect tourists. I've been in Budapest when there was trouble on the streets and I saw none of it. Steer clear of crowds and police dressed like Robocop and nothing will happen to you.

An Ciarraioch

Franco-era "eagle flags" on display in Madrid, wouldn't imagine it was more than a handful of protestors, but still surprising:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CatalanVoices/status/914119963518099456

FCIM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Franco-era "eagle flags" on display in Madrid, wouldn't imagine it was more than a handful of protestors, but still surprising:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CatalanVoices/status/914119963518099456

Although the UK has a less than perfect record in terms of how it has treated, and still sometimes treats, its constituent parts it is startling how wide the gap is in terms of the respect London nowadays shows to Wales, Scotland and, though it still has a way to go on certain issues, the North of Ireland and the omnipotence Madrid displays towards other parts of Spain.

recedite

Puigdemont has managed to vote, but in a different polling station after his own local one was besieged by Guardia Civil.
https://twitter.com/catalannews?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
The Catalan Mossos d'Esquadra police also have orders to prevent the vote, but do not seem to be trying very hard, saying they have been ordered "not to use force".
The Guardia Civil are having to deploy in large groups due to the public hostility against them, which means they haven't got the numbers to cover all the polling stations.

EagererBeaver

Looks like some rubber bullets already fired. Other skirmishes about too.

Mutant z

The Spanish government should recognise the Catalans wish to hold this referendum, they should be perfectly entitled to self determination if thats what they want, Madrid cant keep ignoring it forever, allow them to determine their own future.

Guy:Incognito

Mutant z wrote: »

The Spanish government should recognise the Catalans wish to hold this referendum, they should be perfectly entitled to self determination if thats what they want, Madrid cant keep ignoring it forever, allow them to determine their own future.

Should that apply across the board? How big or small does an area need to be to declare independence?what happens if it fails, does the country it once belonged to just have to accept them back?

If leitrim decides to be independent and we have have this landlocked I dependent country in the middle of Ireland, what responsibilities do we have , or can we just lash a barbed wire fence around it and pretend it doesnt exist?

EagererBeaver

This will (hopefully) be the end of Rajoy.

Whatever the nature of the constitutional question or the legality of the referendum, you can't have cops going round battering little old ladies.

FCIM

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Should that apply across the board? How big or small does an area need to be to declare independence?what happens if it fails, does the country it once belonged to just have to accept them back?

If leitrim decides to be independent and we have have this landlocked I dependent country in the middle of Ireland, what responsibilities do we have , or can we just lash a barbed wire fence around it and pretend it doesnt exist?

You do have a point as everything has to have a limit but the popular vote would go a long way to curbing places like Leitrim going for independence. Why does it have to be a problem though to have a place in the middle of a country being independent? Do you think the Vatican and San Marino inhibit Italy's growth, what about Monaco and France?

A Dub in Glasgo

Spain reverting to fascist times with the actions of the Spanish authorities

FrancieBrady

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Should that apply across the board? How big or small does an area need to be to declare independence?what happens if it fails, does the country it once belonged to just have to accept them back?

If leitrim decides to be independent and we have have this landlocked I dependent country in the middle of Ireland, what responsibilities do we have , or can we just lash a barbed wire fence around it and pretend it doesnt exist?

This is a really tired and lazy response.

Nobody is suggesting an independence free for all for every county and parish.

backspin.

The police are battering rings round them

HalloweenJack

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Should that apply across the board? How big or small does an area need to be to declare independence?what happens if it fails, does the country it once belonged to just have to accept them back?

The Spanish state recognises that there are distinct "nationalities" that exist within the borders of the country which are Catalunya, the Basque Country, Galicia and Andalucia. This is an official recognition that these areas are somewhat different to the rest of Spain. That is far more recognition than Leitrim gets.

I think common sense also comes into play and people can see when a group has a case for self-determination.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Franco-era "eagle flags" on display in Madrid, wouldn't imagine it was more than a handful of protestors, but still surprising:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CatalanVoices/status/914119963518099456

Not just in Madrid, tbf. I live in Cordoba and there are a number of Spanish flags to be seen from my balcony and last week there was a "March for Spanish Unity". Tbf, while it was mostly older people, it wasn't all fascists and this is an important distinction that needs to be made: the Spanish Unionists, shall we say, come from all parts of the political spectrum. There are some clandestine fascists and I have seen the Franco era flag too but most of them are just proud Spaniards, they've just picked an opportune moment to start displaying their patriotism.