Catalan independence referendum, 2017

An Ciarraioch

Water John wrote: »

The only concept I would accept is, and this is in general, a minimum % of voter turnout in any referendum. Not too high but some min eg one third of the elecorate.

As people on both sides of the demos today say; there needs to be dialogue.

Fully agree, would imagine one could easily see 70%+ turnout if a compromise were to be agreed.

recedite

Water John wrote: »

The only concept I would accept is, and this is in general, a minimum % of voter turnout in any referendum. Not too high but some min eg one third of the elecorate.

I also agree in general, but any such requirement would have to be made known before the referendum was held. If there wasn't any minimum quota beforehand, then an arbitrary figure should not be introduced afterwards, and especially not if there was voter intimidation.
Anyway, the 42% turnout for this one comfortably exceeds any 33% minimum that could/should have been stipulated in advance.

Eyes Down Field

I wonder how many people here believe that Catalonia will, in the near future, be officially and independent state.? How many believe they will remain a part of Spain after coming to a compromise deal on greater autonomy. Or how many believe Madrid will resist all attempts at secession, perhaps to the point of military force?

An Ciarraioch

One of those stats that make you scratch your head and wonder - the question translates as "If there is a UDI, what should Spain do? Accept independence?": and almost 19% of Catalans respond "Don't know"! If someone can't have a strong opinion either way about something that will directly affect everyone they know, you suspect they never will:

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20171005/251975665_0.html

An Ciarraioch

Eyes Down Field wrote: »

I wonder how many people here believe that Catalonia will, in the near future, be officially and independent state.? How many believe they will remain a part of Spain after coming to a compromise deal on greater autonomy. Or how many believe Madrid will resist all attempts at secession, perhaps to the point of military force?

I suspect that before Tuesday, there will be a deal along the lines of what the Basques have, whereby all tax returns are kept in the region. Flicking through the Economist in the local newsagent, they suggested following that strategy, giving the various minorities in Spain the status of "cultural nations" and allowing a referendum in order to win it on the basis of continued EU membership, all of which seemed sound advice.

Water John

Well if its about identity mainly, then that can be accommodated in most situations unless their is a large % fanatically in favour of UDI.
Don't agree that each area should hold onto its own taxes and money. That will over time lead to a further distortion and a less egalitarian society in Spain. The haves get richer and the have nots in poorer areas get poorer.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

Well if its about identity mainly, then that can be accommodated in most situations unless their is a large % fanatically in favour of UDI.
Don't agree that each area should hold onto its own taxes and money. That will over time lead to a further distortion and a less egalitarian society in Spain. The haves get richer and the have nots in poorer areas get poorer.

The EU uses a system not unlike that for redistributing largess to poorer areas. The member state keeps its taxes, and remits the customs duties and a proportion of the VAT to the EU.

Spain could tailor a similar approach re its regions - keep enough to pay for foreign affairs, the central judicial system, and the defence forces.

Water John

Rajoy, doesn't change his spots and rules out mediation.

Obvious Otter

Any Declaration of Independence at this point is futile as it would be met was with strong resistance considering the turnout of the election and the circumstances it was held under. There are serious question marks over whether the majority would want such a decision. The Spanish Goverment should agree to a referendum and give the people of Catalonia their basic democratic rights but the turnout should have to be above 50% to make any such result valid.

A Dub in Glasgo

Obvious Otter wrote: »

Any Declaration of Independence at this point is futile as it would be met was with strong resistance considering the turnout of the election and the circumstances it was held under. There are serious question marks over whether the majority would want such a decision. The Spanish Goverment should agree to a referendum and give the people of Catalonia their basic democratic rights but the turnout should have to be above 50% to make any such result valid.

Considering the Spanish police battered the fcuk out of the people of Catalonia to ensure they did not vote? Is that what you mean?

feargale

Water John wrote: »

Rajoy, doesn't change his spots and rules out mediation.

What do you expect from the heirs of Franco?

Samaris

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Considering the Spanish police battered the fcuk out of the people of Catalonia to ensure they did not vote? Is that what you mean?

That was one major issue, yes. Another was that ballots were stolen (again, by the central Spanish police), polling stations were closed (see previous), and critically, that those who did not want independence were far less likely to vote, being a lot more likely to take the Constitutional Court's ruling that it was not valid. It doesn't actually matter who was responsible for that bit going bad (mostly Spain, not sure Puigdemont did much to avoid it though), the problem is that there's an apparently swingeing majority except no-one really knows how reliable that number actually is, and that is never a good position to start making drastic changes to a nation.

This is not about whether Puigdemont or Rajoy wins. I'm dubious about both of them, tbh. Both are doing what they were elected to do (ref on independence/hold Spain together), but I'm not sure either are doing it well. Either way, it's the people of Catalonia (and Spain) that will be the ones to actually suffer if this is not what they want. And at the moment, it's not really known what they want.

If they do rerun the referendum, well, there's enough anger raised that it may well go the same way. But at least it will be clearer and an awful lot of people won't feel they are being ripped out of their country (and being made to choose between nation and region) at the whim of a secessionist government. The protests were starting today and will be up again tomorrow. Fewer flags, but a lot of people with Hablemos/Parlem, which seems like a saner place to start. If it all goes downhill, then it does, but at least exhausting (and/or trying) diplomacy first would seem wise.

Catalonia certainly has decent arguments for independence - IF they want it. But they'd really want to be sure they do want it, because they'll have a rough couple of decades to survive if they go like this, especially with a strongly anti-secessionist PM in charge.

Mostly, it sounds like Catalonia wants to be listened to. And they're fed up with Rajoy feeding the "Catalan question" to distract from economic woes.

Fratton Fred

It it interesting that France has come out and flatly refused to recognise an independent Catalonia. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41551337

is this support for a European ally, or trying to quickly stamp out any thoughts of independence for their potentially want away regions both home and away?

An Ciarraioch

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It it interesting that France has come out and flatly refused to recognise an independent Catalonia. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41551337

is this support for a European ally, or trying to quickly stamp out any thoughts of independence for their potentially want away regions both home and away?

To be expected - firstly, because France, as you say, only recognises French as an official language, and hardly wants to give any encouragement to Brittany, Corsica, Occitania etc. Secondly, no EU member is going to accept territory of another unilaterally seceding. An interesting suggestion was made by one Catalan MEP, citing Slovenia, namely that the UDI would go ahead before being immediately suspended, to allow negotiations with Spain. If Madrid continued to refuse a legal referendum, then the Catalans would start seeking international recognition, on the grounds of having met their side of the bargain.

Water John

The're are 3 Basque provinces in France. That's the reason.

Calina

Water John wrote: »

The're are 3 Basque provinces in France. That's the reason.

Please do not confuse the Basque country and Catalonia. Yes they both have independence movements and they both straddle the Franco-Panish border. But they are still different places.

feargale

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It it interesting that France has come out and flatly refused to recognise an independent Catalonia. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41551337

is this support for a European ally, or trying to quickly stamp out any thoughts of independence for their potentially want away regions both home and away?

More the latter than the former, I would think. The French are paranoid about regionalism. And in this instance they could be nervous about Roussillon/Pyrenees Orientales, taken from Spain in 1659 and traditionally Catalan. But I believe there is virtually no appetite in Catalonia for ever incorporating that territory. It's a lost cause, having become French in sentiment within a short time of the French takeover, though the language survived intact until the late 19th century and is still spoken by a very substantial minority.
Incidentally I believe Mr. Jammet of Jammets Restaurant in Nassau St. was a Catalan from there.

Water John

Calina, I'm not stupid. France is simply afraid of cross border situations, a la the Kurds.
Fully aware we are discussing Catalonia, as per Thread Heading.

An Ciarraioch

feargale wrote: »

More the latter than the former, I would think. The French are paranoid about regionalism. And in this instance they could be nervous about Roussillon/Pyrenees Orientales, taken from Spain in 1659 and traditionally Catalan. But I believe there is virtually no appetite in Catalonia for ever incorporating that territory. It's a lost cause, having become French in sentiment within a short time of the French takeover, though the language survived intact until the late 19th century and is still spoken by a very substantial minority.
Incidentally I believe Mr. Jammet of Jammets Restaurant in Nassau St. was a Catalan from there.

And former PM, Manuel Valls, came from Barcelona originally.

feargale

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

To be expected - firstly, because France, as you say, only recognises French as an official language, and hardly wants to give any encouragement to Brittany, Corsica, Occitania etc. Secondly, no EU member is going to accept territory of another unilaterally seceding. An interesting suggestion was made by one Catalan MEP, citing Slovenia, namely that the UDI would go ahead before being immediately suspended, to allow negotiations with Spain. If Madrid continued to refuse a legal referendum, then the Catalans would start seeking international recognition, on the grounds of having met their side of the bargain.

Serbia has cited the inconsistency of the EU championing self-determination for Kosovo while denying it to Catalonia.

If Madrid had kept the head as Westminster did re Scotland it is highly unlikely that anything would have changed or that the present mess would have ensued. But some jurisdictions are relatively new to democracy and still have much to learn.

jimmycrackcorm

feargale wrote:

Serbia has cited the inconsistency of the EU championing self-determination for Kosovo while denying it to Catalonia.

Not surprising given the history there.

feargale wrote:

If Madrid had kept the head as Westminster did re Scotland it is highly unlikely that anything would have changed or that the present mess would have ensued. But some jurisdictions are relatively new to democracy and still have much to learn.

Catalonia and Scotland aren't comparable.

Fr Tod Umptious

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Not surprising given the history there.



Catalonia and Scotland aren't comparable.

And what Kosovo broke away from was the rump Yugoslavia, not another EU nation as is the case here so comparisons between Kosovo/Serbian and Catalonia/Spain with regards recognition are futile.

An Ciarraioch

Interestingly, Catalonia already permits secession from itself for an Occitan-speaking valley:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1CE1D9

josip

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And what Kosovo broke away from was the rump Yugoslavia, not another EU nation as is the case here so comparisons between Kosovo/Serbian and Catalonia/Spain with regards recognition are futile.

Do you mean that all sovereigns are equal but EU sovereigns are more equal than others?

feargale

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Not surprising given the history there.

Not clear what you mean by this.

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Catalonia and Scotland aren't comparable.

Scotland doesn't speak Catalan and hasn't suffered savage repression in the 20th century. Of course no two countries are the same but I'm curious as to what other profound differences you see. Over the past two years or so mention of the one has frequently been accompanied by mention of the other.

Fr Tod Umptious

josip wrote: »

Do you mean that all sovereigns are equal but EU sovereigns are more equal than others?

Well quite frankly yes.

May not be fair correct but that's the reality.

ilkhanid

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And what Kosovo broke away from was the rump Yugoslavia, not another EU nation as is the case here so comparisons between Kosovo/Serbian and Catalonia/Spain with regards recognition are futile.

Another very significant difference: Kosovo was only incorporated into Serbia as late as 1912-and by force.

josip

ilkhanid wrote: »

Another very significant difference: Kosovo was only incorporated into Serbia as late as 1912-and by force.

Kosovo was never part of Serbia before 1912?

An Ciarraioch

Still seems unclear what Puigdemont will actually say five hours from now - hints so far that it will be a UDI, but done in stages to allow for some wiggle room in terms of talks with Madrid.

recedite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

... but done in stages to allow for some wiggle room in terms of talks with Madrid.

I think stages would be a mistake because
a) Madrid has shown no flexibility in its position. There will be no talks.

b) The policing situation is very delicate in terms of loyalties. Currently the Mossos dEsquadra are in a very unfair position, being required to obey Spanish authority but also not wanting to be the enemy of Catalan people. If the Mossos were directly ordered to shut down the Catalan regional govt. assembly today, who knows what would happen.
But following a UDI they would be answerable only to Catalan authority.

The locally based national police would then be obliged to take a back seat. Following that, they would either await reinforcements or withdraw from Catalonia.

feargale

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well quite frankly yes.

May not be fair correct but that's the reality.

Yes because there's a democratic deficit in the EU that gets very little airing. And pusillanimous states like Ireland do little to remedy that.

An Ciarraioch

Guardian live thread with latest developments:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/10/catalan-parliament-discusses-independence-referendum-live

Itssoeasy

The address of the Catalonia president has been delayed by an hour. I was just watching a bit of CNN showing live pictures of the Parliament and you'd think with the parliament about to declare independence they'd be happy but it didn't look happiness. The few shots of people in the chamber it was a bit tense.

Regardless of what happens this evening, it will be historic and maybe the weight of history is weighing on the Catalonia government.

VinLieger

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The address of the Catalonia president has been delayed by an hour. I was just watching a bit of CNN showing live pictures of the Parliament and you'd think with the parliament about to declare independence they'd be happy but it didn't look happiness. The few shots of people in the chamber it was a bit tense.

Regardless of what happens this evening, it will be historic and maybe the weight of history is weighing on the Catalonia government.

I think reality started to hit home over the weekend when several banks moved headquarters out of barcelona without blinking and eye, they have to be asking themselves how many other businesses are waiting to flip the switch depending on todays speech

FrancieBrady

Eleventh hour mediation underway.

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Eleventh hour mediation underway.

According to who ?

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

According to who ?

Reading the Guardian Live blog. Seems it was this instead:

Spanish media are reporting Carles Puigdemont asked for the postponement because the radical pro-independence CUP party is unhappy with the wording of his declaration.

Itssoeasy

Catalan president speaking in the Catalan parliament.

jimmycrackcorm

feargale wrote:

Scotland doesn't speak Catalan and hasn't suffered savage repression in the 20th century. Of course no two countries are the same but I'm curious as to what other profound differences you see. Over the past two years or so mention of the one has frequently been accompanied by mention of the other.

Scotland is and has been actually a country. If anything catalonia is more akin to Northern Ireland, a region.

sjb25

Most of the politicians here look very peeed off I think

An Ciarraioch

So, the UDI is made, but suspended to allow talks with both Madrid and international mediators. PM's office has already rejected the olive branch, so the first point is scored by Puigdemont.

Brendan Bendar

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, the UDI is made, but suspended to allow talks with both Madrid and international mediators. PM's office has already rejected the olive branch, so the first point is scored by Puigdemont.

First mistake, in my opinion.

An Ciarraioch

If he had left it activated, presumably article 155 would be triggered - rather harder for Rajoy to take that step now.

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, the UDI is made, but suspended to allow talks with both Madrid and international mediators. PM's office has already rejected the olive branch, so the first point is scored by Puigdemont.

Smart move. Once again they come across as reasonable.

VinLieger

Did anyone see the eejits laughing when he was talking about the banks and other big name companies moving their headquarters and tax payments to other cities and how they donlt need them? Smacks of deja vu when you hear the champagne socialists here cluelessly claiming we don't need all the MNC's here and their direct/indirect jobs for 20% of the population.

recedite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, the UDI is made, but suspended..

Its not quite clear whether the UDI was made and then suspended, or whether it was postponed. The word "suspended" is being used in English, but maybe something has been lost in translation?
It seems more like a postponement to me (ie no UDI).

Catalonia's President has said that the region has won the right to statehood but suspended a declaration of independence from Spain.
Instead, Carles Puigdemont says that such a declaration would wait “a few weeks” so talks could first take place with the Spanish government.

http://www.thejournal.ie/catalan-declaration-3639597-Oct2017/

recedite

Meanwhile a frigate appeared today in the foggy dew of Barcelona harbour.
Espana's Huns with their long range guns....

FrancieBrady

recedite wrote: »

Meanwhile a frigate appeared today in the foggy dew of Barcelona harbour.
Espana's Huns with their long range guns....

Do they have a GPO?

recedite

I couldn't imagine them ever firing on the city, but even so, it is the politics of intimidation in action.

FrancieBrady

recedite wrote: »

I couldn't imagine them ever firing on the city, but even so, it is the politics of intimidation in action.

Madrid seems to be talking themselves into a cup de sac here. If the Catalans don't back down the dogs of war will be unleashed, judging from the talk.