Catalan independence referendum, 2017

Samaris

By the way, wonderful example of how protest voting screws up everything. Again.

In this case, there was ample reason to be angry, mind. But I'd eat my hypothetical hat if the whole thing had gone off peacefully and the Yes vote was that high. Or even won.

Water John

Stupifying, would be the only word for the Spanish action.

walshb

Listening to some of the silly commentary on this arguing that it's not a legitimate vote because of the very low turnout.

Only circa 2.2 million of the eligible circa 5 million voted....so what....

Couldn't that be applied to any vote, legal or not?

An Ciarraioch

Floki wrote: »

You would think that should be the next logical move now if independence is their ultimate aim.

I suppose it's difficult to switch to that mode from the oppressed how are we mode.

Edit: Sure didn't our own boyos declare independence when they took over the GPO.

It seems the Generalitat will ratify the result tomorrow, so the UDI will then happen on Friday.

An Ciarraioch

The PP has had to row back on applying Article 155, due to the lack of support from the PSOE:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171003/431772720212/pp-no-aplicara-155-falta-apoyos.html

CruelCoin

walshb wrote: »

Listening to some of the silly commentary on this arguing that it's not a legitimate vote because of the very low turnout.

Only circa 2.2 million of the eligible circa 5 million voted....so what....

Couldn't that be applied to any vote, legal or not?

Important referenda that had a big impact in Ireland were passed by tiny turnouts:
Ratification of Single European Act - 44.09%
Joining the International Criminal Court - 34.78%

This really major one was rejected by a really tiny turnout relative to the importance of the vote:
Nice Treaty I - 34.79%

Sure, that shouldn't have passed, eh? Sure the other 65.21% would surely have voted yes..........

Those who do not vote, do not have a voice, simple as that. Why that's even up for debate is beyond me.

https://electionsireland.org/results/referendum/summary.cfm

People in this thread are doing some serious mental gymnastics to try paint a democratic expression of the people as somehow undemocratic.
Given there are no legal minimums for the referendum that just happened, the mandate is given by the yes vote, not the volume of yes voters.

CruelCoin

CruelCoin wrote: »

People in this thread are doing some serious mental gymnastics to try paint a democratic expression of the people as somehow undemocratic.
Given there are no legal minimums for the referendum that just happened, the mandate is given by the yes vote, not the volume of yes voters.

It's undemocratic in the sense that as an unofficial and illegal vote under the constitution, unionists in Catalonia did not want to vote - by doing so they would merely give legitimacy to a process that they rejected as divisive.

There are also many questions to be answered about the process (again, as it was not an official vote and as such had no real scrutiny).

This isn't an anti-Catalan viewpoint it's just my take on why the result of this particular vote is essentially meaningless, similar to the border poll in 1973 in which only one side voted.

Samaris

Yees, I don't know who is trying to make it about the turnout (I think I might have seen one post that referred to it, but most of the arguing is from people against the idea), but they're incorrect and rather blatantly incorrect. It is simply not a logical position to argue from when there are a whole bunch of much bigger issues standing in the way of taking this referendum and acting upon it.

The size of the turnout is a red herring, for those arguing pro and anti-Catalan independence. It is quite simply not relevant to either side of the debate.

That it was illegal, impossible to carry out with any form of scrutiny, under heavy oppressive tactics, votes were stolen, we -know- there was physical voter suppression, we know it's more than likely that many were dissuaded from going to the polls for multiple reasons, and there is a strong possibility of an angered protest vote that carried it makes the whole thing ...deeply foolish to go through with without a lot more talk and planning. And preferably a sensible referendum held without riot police.

People have been saying that Catalonia wouldn't have the leg to stand on without the violence, but the thing is that they're not any more in the right just because there was violence. It mostly just means that Madrid was absolutely in the wrong too, which really gets no-one any further.

I may have sympathy with what the seperatists want, but I also have sympathy with the large portion of people who wanted the right to have a say, but didn't want to leave and may end up railroaded into a messy, contentious regional break-up.

CruelCoin

Samaris wrote: »

That it was illegal

It wasn't so much illegal as it wasn't legal....Sounds odd, aye.

The courts ruled against it just because there was no allowance in the constitution for such a referendum. But neither was there a clause banning it.

Very much a case of "I may have broken the law, but I have not committed a crime" scenario here.

I don't see how an incomplete constitution can overule the basic right to self-determination, the idea of which is supported by the UN and the EU.

I find it really odd how the EU can express support for self-determination, but then come out against it when it's actually expressed.
A "not in my backyard" kind of thing? Fine for Eritrea, but not for the Catalans?

Morzadec

JupiterKid wrote: »

If Madrid decides to go heavy handed and crush Catalonian self-determination, it will backfire very badly. The consequences could make the ETA campaign look like nothing in comparison.

If Spain refuses the rights of Catalonians to self-determination, I can only see the result being bloody and brutal. It may even lead to Spain being forcibly ejected from the EU.

Am I being naive in thinking that an armed terrorist group similar to ETA is really unlikely to come out of Catalonia and this whole situation?

FTA69

Morzadec wrote: »

Am I being naive in thinking that an armed terrorist group similar to ETA is really unlikely to come out of Catalonia and this whole situation?

Highly doubtful I think, Catalan and Basque nationalism are very different and the former didn't really develop a culture of revolutionary Republicanism like the latter did. Secondly, the days of big clandestine armed groups in Europe with big support bases is probably done. Groups like the IRA and ETA were on their last legs since the 1990s now. Lastly, the independence-minded Catalans would have kept a close eye on the Basque situation for years and concluded it wasn't the way to go.

CruelCoin

FTA69 wrote: »

Highly doubtful I think, Catalan and Basque nationalism are very different and the former didn't really develop a culture of revolutionary Republicanism like the latter did.

Dunno, anger does strange things to people.

We've just had the Spanish state make an attempt to strip Catalonia of its semi-autonomy via invoking a clause. Only failed because they lost support from a certain party.

They go from beating voters to attempting to strip them of what autonomy they have....

It only takes one gob****e with a gun, the Spaniards making a cack-handed iron fisted response, and this **** would snowball.

A Dub in Glasgo

For those talking about minimum turnout for referendum, have a look at the UK Parliament sneakily put into the 1979 Scottish devolution bill

'In 1979, there was a similar expectation that Home Rule was about to happen. The referendum was altered by the amendment - introduced by the Labour MP George Cunningham - which provided that the Government must repeal the Scotland Act if fewer than 40 per cent of those entitled to vote opted to vote Yes. This, as critics pointed out at the time, attached weight to those who decided to stay at home for whatever reason.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1979#Aftermath
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/briefing/scotbrief1.shtml#1979

An Ciarraioch

Morzadec wrote: »

Am I being naive in thinking that an armed terrorist group similar to ETA is really unlikely to come out of Catalonia and this whole situation?

There was a very short-lived group called Terra Lliure, but Giles Tremlett's book suggests they were so incompetent that they did most harm to themselves!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra_Lliure

An Ciarraioch

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

For those talking about minimum turnout for referendum, have a look at the UK Parliament sneakily put into the 1979 Scottish devolution bill

'In 1979, there was a similar expectation that Home Rule was about to happen. The referendum was altered by the amendment - introduced by the Labour MP George Cunningham - which provided that the Government must repeal the Scotland Act if fewer than 40 per cent of those entitled to vote opted to vote Yes. This, as critics pointed out at the time, attached weight to those who decided to stay at home for whatever reason.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1979#Aftermath
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/briefing/scotbrief1.shtml#1979

The SNP were so annoyed with the provision scuppering the referendum, that they withdrew support for Callaghan, and inadvertently kickstarted the Thatcher era - talk about unexpected consequences!

FTA69

CruelCoin wrote: »

Dunno, anger does strange things to people.

We've just had the Spanish state make an attempt to strip Catalonia of its semi-autonomy via invoking a clause. Only failed because they lost support from a certain party.

They go from beating voters to attempting to strip them of what autonomy they have....

It only takes one gob****e with a gun, the Spaniards making a cack-handed iron fisted response, and this **** would snowball.

Oh I've no doubt there's serious potential for that to happen; I said weeks ago that the referendum day would dissolve into rubber bullets, police brutality and arrests and I believe that could well escalate in future. However, I don't think you'll start to see Catalans engaging in armed actions, if anyone is likely to shoot someone, it's the cops. I don't think there's any desire amongst any section of the Catalan people for a Catalan version of ETA.

Even the Catalan response to the police on referendum day was remarkably restrained. If that happened in the Basque Country there'd be petrol bombs and mass rioting in some areas.

An Ciarraioch

Fair to say the King didn't rise to the occasion - the speech sounded like it was written by a Government spin doctor.

josip

Is everyone on the non-Catalan side in Spain deluded at the moment?
Now was a time to keep quiet and let things settle down.
Why is the King making inflammatory statements?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41493014

I'm getting the impression that the rest of Spain actually want Catalonia to leave.

FrancieBrady

josip wrote: »

Is everyone on the non-Catalan side in Spain deluded at the moment?
Now was a time to keep quiet and let things settle down.
Why is the King making inflammatory statements?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41493014

I'm getting the impression that the rest of Spain actually want Catalonia to leave.

Definitely trying to provoke. Unbelievable stuff to throw into a volatile situation.

Mancomb Seepgood

The monarchy isn't exactly popular in Catalonia as I understand it,the King should have remained silent or offered to arbitrate.Never mind an independent Catalonia,this could give a real boost to the idea of restoring the Spanish Republic.

An Ciarraioch

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

The monarchy isn't exactly popular in Catalonia as I understand it,the King should have remained silent or offered to arbitrate.Never mind an independent Catalonia,this could give a real boost to the idea of restoring the Spanish Republic.

Contrast with QEII, who never commented publicly on either the Indyref or Brexit referenda.

An Ciarraioch

Puigdemont tells BBC he'll declare independence within days - will Rajoy act first, though?

Mutant z

Spain has done its absolute best to turn Catalans who wouldnt even have previously been in favour of independence towards independence.

Mutant z

The Spanish central government has really shot itself in the foot with its extreme reaction to this referendum.

Sierra Oscar

A quote from King Felipe's speech:

“They have shown an unacceptable disloyalty toward the power of the state,”

It's bordering on labelling the leaders of the referendum campaign as having committed treason agains the State. I wouldn't rule out arrests being made in the days ahead if they do push ahead and declare independence. The autonomous Government and parliament will be dissolved at the very least.

Also, the Spanish Government know exactly what they are doing here. I hear a lot of people outside of Spain saying that the Government has damaged itself. They don't care what you think. The Spanish Government is sending a very clear message. They will not tolerate people attempting to violate the territorial integrity of their country and they will do everything in their power to prevent the fragmentation of their state, including engaging in military action if it ultimately came to it.

Brendan Bendar

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

A quote from King Felipe's speech:



It's bordering on labelling the leaders of the referendum campaign as having committed treason agains the State. I wouldn't rule out arrests being made in the days ahead if they do push ahead and declare independence. The autonomous Government and parliament will be dissolved at the very least.

Also, the Spanish Government know exactly what they are doing here. I hear a lot of people outside of Spain saying that the Government has damaged itself. They don't care what you think. The Spanish Government is sending a very clear message. They will not tolerate people attempting to violate the territorial integrity of their country and they will do everything in their power to prevent the fragmentation of their state, including engaging in military action if it ultimately came to it.

Yes would agree there.

I think there will be major military presence in the area over the next few days.

Samaris

I don't see any of the leadership being all that universally popular at the moment - there will be plenty of angry "Remain" voters that didn't vote in the referendum because they had every reason to believe that it wasn't a legal action anyway (point was made earlier that it wasn't illegal under the constitution either, but the Spanish Constitutional Court ruled with Madrid, that Catalonia didn't have the right to hold a referendum unilaterally.)

The rights and wrongs of holding it aren't particularly relevant in this aspect - enough people believed (reasonably enough too) that this wasn't a "real" referendum and "remain" was far less likely to get out and vote therefore. They're also angry at the Spanish government for the violence, so they're a bit stuck in terms of what to support.

The king just dropped a bottle of oil on the whole thing (nice going there), the Catalans appear to feel that the country is shoving them into a corner (which it rather is, there is no face-saving to be had here) and Rojoy is probably the worst person to unite the country, as he and his party have apparently always been rather hardline against the ..minority states? The regional devolved powers, etc.

From an outside perspective, with little knowledge of all the nuance and issues within the country before all this flared up, it looks like it was appallingly badly handled anyway.

A Dub in Glasgo

On the legality thing... it is clear the referendum was not legal, does that mean the millions who voted committed a criminal offence?


A blog from a Scottish broadcaster

Well, it was ‘against the law’ right enough, and the point about constitutions is that they proscribe what you can’t do as well as clarifying what you can. The constitution – and remember, one day we’ll need one – limits a citizen’s actions as well as validating his rights. The state of Spain and its government has a duty to uphold the constitution on behalf of all citizens. Spain has a justified position to maintain and has every justification for resisting the demands of a political movement agitating to breach the national law.

But of course it isn’t about the law at all. The constitution is being used as a political shield to hide the government’s failure of courage to engage constructively with the Catalonian leadership.

http://derekbateman.scot/2017/10/02/breaking-the-law/

Samaris

I really don't know - it wasn't against the Constitution as she is writ, but the Constitutional Court had found against the allowability of a referendum under these conditions.

I doubt there would be anything brought against the people of Catalonia who voted (although no doubt people were wondering about it while marking ballot papers), but the regional government may get arrested.

Brendan Bendar

Samaris wrote: »

I really don't know - it wasn't against the Constitution as she is writ, but the Constitutional Court had found against the allowability of a referendum under these conditions.

I doubt there would be anything brought against the people of Catalonia who voted (although no doubt people were wondering about it while marking ballot papers), but the regional government may get arrested.

That indeed could be the next step.