Catalan independence referendum, 2017

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Puigdemont's speech basically said "We're open to offers until Monday, after that, we're off".

Has he snookered Rahoy into arresting him and others in an effort to bring more behind independence?

An Ciarraioch

More likely that he'll be arrested afterwards, as businesses are already getting nervous about the UDI.

seenitall

None too unexpected; the democratic EU is perfectly happy to condone democratic actions of the Spanish government in dispensing a bit of democratic re-education on the heads of its peaceful citizenry by the force of police baton.

http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-defends-use-of-proportionate-force-in-catalonia/

feargale

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Flying to Barcelona on the 1st of October.  Booked ages ago, had no idea this was happening.  Should I expect any trouble?

Let us know how you got on.

hatrickpatrick

Spain's court has now suspended the Catalan parliament in an effort to prevent them declaring independence.

This is almost too beautiful. Spain is literally handing independence to Catalonia on a silver platter by being so stubbornly heavy handed about this situation. I was expecting the Catalonians to have a much longer fight on their hands, but at this rate I reckon they'll be independent by this time next year.

Has Spain's government learned nothing from history? It's very basic psychology that the more you try to suppress these movements, the more power you pump into them.

Bishopsback

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Spain's court has now suspended the Catalan parliament in an effort to prevent them declaring independence.

This is almost too beautiful. Spain is literally handing independence to Catalonia on a silver platter by being so stubbornly heavy handed about this situation. I was expecting the Catalonians to have a much longer fight on their hands, but at this rate I reckon they'll be independent by this time next year.

Has Spain's government learned nothing from history? It's very basic psychology that the more you try to suppress these movements, the more power you pump into them.

I'm not sure of that yet.
It could turn bloody if they just declare outright independence.
It would've logical to expect Spain to try to protect its sovereignty and expect those for independence to fight for it.

An Ciarraioch

Bishopsback wrote: »

I'm not sure of that yet.
It could turn bloody if they just declare outright independence.
It would've logical to expect Spain to try to protect its sovereignty and expect those for independence to fight for it.

If Spain actually used its army, that would mean suspension from the EU, so most likely scenario is that the Catalan parliament moves ahead regardless on Monday, Rajoy suspends home rule either the same day or on Tuesday, and the theoretical independence lasts so long as the government can avoid arrest. If the Mossos declare for the new state, it will buy them a few days, at most.

eire4

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Spain's court has now suspended the Catalan parliament in an effort to prevent them declaring independence.

This is almost too beautiful. Spain is literally handing independence to Catalonia on a silver platter by being so stubbornly heavy handed about this situation. I was expecting the Catalonians to have a much longer fight on their hands, but at this rate I reckon they'll be independent by this time next year.

Has Spain's government learned nothing from history? It's very basic psychology that the more you try to suppress these movements, the more power you pump into them.

I don't know about Catalonia being fully independent by next year but I completely agree with you the way the way Spain has handled the whole situation has been incredibly stupid and may very well be driving a majority of Catalans toward independence. It is almost like every move that Spain makes right now is exactly the worst move and only likely to push Catalans toward supporting full independence.

An Ciarraioch

The Spanish Defence Minister makes noisss:

https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/1189-171005173358-spanish-defence-minister-warns-everything-outside-of-democracy-is-a-threat-to-our-nation

DEFTLEFTHAND

It will be amusing to watch the Spanish FA kick Barcelona out of La Liga.

They'll be playing in the Catalonian league in the not too distant future hopefully.

DEFTLEFTHAND

Also anyone see the SF Cllr raising the Catalan flag over City Hall.

I wonder what he thinks about Gibraltar? I suppose the Spanish are the good guys in that dispute.

Calina

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If Spain actually used its army, that would mean suspension from the EU...

On what grounds?

An Ciarraioch

Calina wrote: »

On what grounds?

Article 7:

http://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-eu-news-article-7-vote-poland-rule-of-law/

An Ciarraioch

DEFTLEFTHAND wrote: »

It will be amusing to watch the Spanish FA kick Barcelona out of La Liga.

They'll be playing in the Catalonian league in the not too distant future hopefully.

They could if they wanted to, but plenty of European precedents - Vaduz, Cardiff, Monaco, Derry City, Berwick, etc.

Calina

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Article 7:

http://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-eu-news-article-7-vote-poland-rule-of-law/

I had a feeling that was what you would bring up because Twitter was all over it yesterday. The fact that you linked to a Politico article on the question of how it might apply to Hungary is also revealing. What you are refering to is Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty.

The question is "Is Spain out of the EU if they send the military in?" And that depends on what the military do.

Here's the text of Article 7 together with a link to it.

Article 7

Print Email
1. On a reasoned proposal by one third of the Member States, by the European Parliament or by the European Commission, the Council, acting by a majority of four fifths of its members after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament, may determine that there is a clear risk of a serious breach by a Member State of the values referred to in Article 2. Before making such a determination, the Council shall hear the Member State in question and may address recommendations to it, acting in accordance with the same procedure. The Council shall regularly verify that the grounds on which such a determination was made continue to apply.

2. The European Council, acting by unanimity on a proposal by one third of the Member States or by the European Commission and after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament, may determine the existence of a serious and persistent breach by a Member State of the values referred to in Article 2 after inviting the Member State in question to submit its observations.

3. Where a determination under paragraph 2 has been made, the Council, acting by a qualified majority, may decide to suspend certain of the rights deriving from the application of the Treaties to the Member State in question, including the voting rights of the representative of the government of that Member State in the Council. In doing so, the Council shall take into account the possible consequences of such a suspension on the rights and obligations of natural and legal persons.

The obligations of the Member State in question under the Treaties shall in any case continue to be binding on that State.

4. The Council, acting by a qualified majority, may decide subsequently to vary or revoke measures taken under paragraph 3 in response to changes in the situation which led to their being imposed.

5. The voting arrangements applying to the European Parliament, the European Council and the Council for the purposes of this Article are laid down in Article 354of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

Here's Article 2 for reference.

The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail.

Link to the relevant section.

Nowhere does it state there that if a member sends in the army to an event, that Article 7 will see them out. It's nuanced.

Now, there's a massive issue on the rule of law side where the Catalonian declaration of independence is concerned because according to Spain's own court system based on the provisions of Spain's constitution, the referendum was illegal. It was also catastrophically run. An illegal declaration of independence would allow Spain some latitude in taking measures to protect its territorial integrity or basically, its current borders. This doesn't mean beating people up but there is a big gap between sending the army in to enforce the borders and the army then engaging in torture and breaking the various and assorted conventions relating to armed forces behaviour.

In other words, it's not a given that Spain gets thrown out if they send the army in because a) the illegal activity per the Spanish constitution and rule of law is on the part of the Catalonian government and b) it heavily depends on what the army actually does.

In any case, when you are depending on a piece of legislation or a treaty to back up your position, it's worth actually quoting it and checking that it does exactly reflect what you think it does. Basically you'd have to prove that sending the army in broke all those provisions in article 2 and you cannot prove that unless they do send it in and the army behaved in such a way. Recall, the Spanish constitution has clear provisions on what is allowable and the rights concerned are not just the rights of the independence parties but also the parties which are not seeking independence - and that by the way is why the parliament debate was suspended - a declaration of independence is illegal and infringes the rights of people who were not campaigning for independence.

The referendum was a train crash. It was also manipulated. Catalonia had a route to follow to obtain independence; it did not follow it, it did not adhere to the constitution which they voted on themselves when they had the opportunity.

I personally - by the way - suspect that the Spanish constitution could do with a review in much the same way as the Irish constitution desperately needs to be reframed in recognition that the people of Ireland now are very different to the people of Ireland ca 1937. But a unilateral declaration of independence is not the way to drive that forward.

Bishopsback

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Spanish Defence Minister makes noisss:

https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/1189-171005173358-spanish-defence-minister-warns-everything-outside-of-democracy-is-a-threat-to-our-nation

That is the legal position in Spanish law, hard for the EU to step in there without being seen to take sides.
I hope there will be a peaceful solution, but any moves to arrest the alleged dissidents will result in violence I feel, so short of capitulation from one side or the other I think some violence is inevitable now.

Water John

It's the Catalan socialist Party that took the court case, that lead to the court suspending Monday's session of Catalonyas Parliament. It was not Rajoy took the case. That may be a difference.

jackboy

Bishopsback wrote: »

That is the legal position in Spanish law, hard for the EU to step in there without being seen to take sides.
I hope there will be a peaceful solution, but any moves to arrest the alleged dissidents will result in violence I feel, so short of capitulation from one side or the other I think some violence is inevitable now.

The EU have taken sides. They are backing Madrid. It would take an extreme event for the EU to change this position.

Good loser

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It seems Monday has been set for independence, so the only question is whether Rajoy will act before then, or whether politically, he needs the UDI to happen first:

http://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/la-declaracion-unilateral-de-independencia-de-cataluna-se-pondria-en-marcha-el-proximo-lunes_2017100459d4ad7f0cf210d9a8ba1576.html

Surely after all the years resisting the Basque uprising the central Govt will never concede to the Catalans.

recedite

Calina wrote: »

The referendum was a train crash. It was also manipulated. Catalonia had a route to follow to obtain independence; it did not follow it.

Some strong assertions there, which would require some elaboration!
What "legal" route did Catalans have open to them to obtain independence?

If the referendum was "a train crash" (and at 42% turnout that terminology seems a bit harsh) then it was Madrid that caused the crash by attacking the train driver's cab.
Should a referendum be conceded to whichever side tries hardest to disrupt it? That's a recipe for anarchy.

Wheres the proof of this manipulation? Are you alleging vote rigging?

Water John

Calina, are you saying, the vote should have been conducted throughout Spain?

A Dub in Glasgo

Calina wrote: »

The referendum was a train crash. It was also manipulated. Catalonia had a route to follow to obtain independence; it did not follow it, it did not adhere to the constitution which they voted on themselves when they had the opportunity.
.

Train crash you say? The only crash I saw was the batons crashing down on the skulls of peaceful citizens for wanting to put an x on a piece of paper. The constitution which was designed to not allow a referendum you mean?

prinzeugen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Train crash you say? The only crash I saw was the batons crashing down on the skulls of peaceful citizens for wanting to put an x on a piece of paper. The constitution which was designed to not allow a referendum you mean?

It was an illegal referendum. The woman that claimed that the police "had broken her fingers one by one" is now admitted she was lying to the international press.

Peaceful my arse.

Brendan Bendar

prinzeugen wrote: »

It was an illegal referendum. The woman that claimed that the police "had broken her fingers one by one" is now admitted she was lying to the international press.

Peaceful my arse.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4950958/Woman-claimed-police-broke-fingers-exaggerated.html

More lies and exaggerated reports.

Samaris

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/10/05/how-the-spanish-government-is-pushing-catalans-to-support-independence/?utm_term=.4e19da4da09c#comments

A perspective from a Spanish writer, who's half Catalan and half Castilian himself.

It sounds like Rajoy will have quite a bit to answer to history for.

I have an issue with this vote, as I don't think that it can be said to accurately represent the will of the people of Catalonia (and regardless of the various face-saving operations going on, the people were in a situation where this result was guarenteed). Catalans have friends and family throughout Spain and Catalonia's leaving will materialistically make things worse for everyone, Catalans included.

This isn't like the days where sections of land seceding just got on with it (albeit with the occupational hazard of armies invading), because for most of history, demesnes, villages, settlements, etc were mostly self-sufficient. In modern countries, much is integrated - Spain's power lines run across Catalonian soil, who owns them? Not to mention will Catalonia keep its big industries that make it so wealthy, since it will lose its markets. And what happens to the Spanish, which includes many part-Catalans and millions of people on both sides that have friends and family in what's now the enemy faction. What happens to Catalonia's massive debt?

But most importantly, the push for independence is real and there, but no-one, including the Catalans themselves, know if they do or not based on that referendum. There was voter suppression, votes stolen, one "side" was far less likely to get out and vote as they had good reason to believe that it wasn't a "real" one. That is the problem with the referendum.

At this stage, it may be too late to salvage it. Rajoy's actions have infuriated the populace and the king's commentry only ruled out any possibility of appealing to him for mediation. Rajoy has also seemingly been busily creating the Catalan question for a few years now to distract from austerity while clamping down hard on the natural reactions of the PM stirring regional nationalism. If that's the case, the man has been criminally negligent of his role and may well be a good deal responsible for whatever now happens, up to and including a break-up of Spain. If there is a "real" vote now, it will probably go the same way, because the reaction of Madrid has driven it that way.

recedite

Samaris wrote: »

In modern countries, much is integrated - Spain's power lines run across Catalonian soil, who owns them?

Republic of Catalonia would own the power lines up to the borders with Spain and France. How is this a big deal?
Republic of Ireland has power interconnectors to NI and to Britain.
There is a big difference between independence and isolationism.

Sam Russell

The Spanish Ambassador to Ireland is from Catalonia.

Also October 12th is the Spanish National day (celebrating the day that Christopher Columbus first set foot in the Americas).

Just thought I would mention it.

An Ciarraioch

Two intriguing links today - firstly, the Swiss government appears to be acting as a neutral arbitrator already:

https://amp.rts.ch/info/suisse/8975657-la-suisse-prete-a-s-engager-pour-la-desescalade-entre-madrid-et-la-catalogne.html

Secondly, the first post 1-O opinion poll shows sharp divisions between Spaniards and Catalans:

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20171005/251975622_0.html

HalloweenJack

No surprise whatsoever that Spaniards don't disagree as much as the Catalans with what happened.

Outside of Catalunya, a lot of Spaniards see this as an attempt to break up Spain and illegal (as it is). They see Spain as a "nation of nations" and don't understand why anyone (Basques, Catalans, Galicians, whoever) would want to leave. They feel the respective autonomous communities have enough power to make their own decisions and can't grasp why they would want any more.

feargale

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4950958/Woman-claimed-police-broke-fingers-exaggerated.html

More lies and exaggerated reports.

So, the Daily Mail, that bastion of truth, fairness, anti-imperialism, the popular will, the rights of small nations and human rights in general, has found one liar ( if we can believe the D.M. ) among the separatists of Catalonia, and that invalidates the whole case for self-determination. Say, why don't you stick to the middle of that paper? They have very good puzzles and good coverage of celebrities.