Catalan independence referendum, 2017

Brendan Bendar

feargale wrote: »

So, the Daily Mail, that bastion of truth, fairness, anti-imperialism, the popular will, the rights of small nations and human rights in general, has found one liar ( if we can believe the D.M. ) among the separatists of Catalonia, and that invalidates the whole case for self-determination. Say, why don't you stick to the middle of that paper? They have very good puzzles and good coverage of celebrities.

Ease back on the personal abuse and try to contribute to the thread please.

Thanks

Nody

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Train crash you say? The only crash I saw was the batons crashing down on the skulls of peaceful citizens for wanting to put an x on a piece of paper. The constitution which was designed to not allow a referendum you mean?

Well that and banks already leaving due to the referendum and plenty other businesses have left as well which will slow things down further.

An Ciarraioch

The official results have been published - that would mean a UDI on Sunday, based on the stated 48 hour time-lapse, but given that the Parliament is only meeting on Tuesday, the interpretation must involve working days.

Brendan Bendar

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The official results have been published - that would mean a UDI on Sunday, based on the stated 48 hour time-lapse, but given that the Parliament is only meeting on Tuesday, the interpretation must involve working days.

Official?

Published by whom?

Validated by whom?

Samaris

recedite wrote: »

Republic of Catalonia would own the power lines up to the borders with Spain and France. How is this a big deal?
Republic of Ireland has power interconnectors to NI and to Britain.
There is a big difference between independence and isolationism.

Okay, so what do you reckon Spain will think about this? Especially as Catalonia is an energy-producing region.

Water John

It would seem from events that there are back channels at work.
Spain, regretting the physical force used, is part of a coordinated talk down.

An Ciarraioch

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Official?

Published by whom?

Validated by whom?

The Catalan Government, PDF included.

http://www.catalangovernment.eu/pres_gov/government/en/infographics/303482/catalan-referendum-results.html

More detail, by province, county and towns:

http://www.ccma.cat/324/els-resultats-oficials-de-l1-o-confirmen-la-victoria-del-si-amb-un-43-de-participacio/noticia/2813421/

feargale

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Catalan Government, PDF included.

http://www.catalangovernment.eu/pres_gov/government/en/infographics/303482/catalan-referendum-results.html

More detail, by province, county and towns:

http://www.ccma.cat/324/els-resultats-oficials-de-l1-o-confirmen-la-victoria-del-si-amb-un-43-de-participacio/noticia/2813421/

From the article, this would seem to sum it up:

"The figures show that in the polling stations where there was no repression the participation was higher."

feargale

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Ease back on the personal abuse

My comnents were clearly aimed at the Daily Mail. BUT

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4950958/Woman-claimed-police-broke-fingers-exaggerated.html

More lies and exaggerated reports.

given your own propagation of the above and the suggestion that lies and more lies are coming from one side, your umbrage is a little precious.

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

and try to contribute to the thread please.

If you scroll back you will see my contributions which heretofore seem to have escaped you.

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Thanks

You're welcome.

Eyes Down Field

So is it the situation that the Catalans have voted for Independence, but the Spanish Government are refusing to recognize the vote?

Calina

Eyes Down Field wrote: »

So is it the situation that the Catalans have voted for Independence, but the Spanish Government are refusing to recognize the vote?

Vote was deemed unconstitutional for a myriad of reasons and its turn out was 42%. So the situation is some Catalans have run an unconstitutional plebiscite which a below 50% turn out.

The summary is "this is now a mess".

Avatar MIA

Calina wrote: »

Vote was deemed unconstitutional for a myriad of reasons and its turn out was 42%.

Sorry, not following the last several pages, but are you seriously saying that because of police brutality, which almost certainly affected the % turnout, it should in some way invalidate a poll? Do you really believe the other 58% were disinterested and had better things to be doing, like washing their hair?

By such logic all dictators deserve to legitimately remain in power, after all nobody votes against them.

recedite

HalloweenJack wrote: »

Outside of Catalunya, a lot of Spaniards see this as an attempt to break up Spain and illegal (as it is). They see Spain as a "nation of nations" and don't understand why anyone (Basques, Catalans, Galicians, whoever) would want to leave.

That is true, and every break-up has to be tinged with sadness. But as with a marriage or any personal relationship, if one party must resort to the use of force to keep it together, then its over.
The UK is/was also a nation of nations, including Ireland.
FWIW I think it would have worked out better for us if Irish history had played out differently, and we had remained under the crown and become a 32 county relatively independent free state, much like Canada or Australia. But that became impossible after the 1916 rising because that particular event evaporated the middle ground and polarised the people of Ireland into two opposing camps. Just as Pearse had planned. Puigdemont stands accused of deliberately polarising Catalonia in a similar way. Anyway, history will be the judge of that.

Eyes Down Field wrote: »

So is it the situation that the Catalans have voted for Independence, but the Spanish Government are refusing to recognize the vote?

Yes, and the situation now is that a Declaration of Independence is expected next Tuesday. This is a big symbolic moment for any country, so it will be worth watching. Presumably the script writers will be trying to think of something suitably memorable and patriotic for the speech.

Ireland's Declaration of Independence in 1919 was an affirmation or "ratification" of the 1916 Proclamation which is obviously quite memorable.

Thomas Jefferson's USA Declaration of Independence in 1776 included these famous words...

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

On the other hand, Madrid has ordered the Tuesday session of the Catalan "regional" govt. to be suspended. So if it goes ahead as expected, there is always the possibility that Madrid's robocops will burst through the doors and start cracking skulls.

Calina

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Sorry, not following the last several pages, but are you seriously saying that because of police brutality, which almost certainly affected the % turnout, it should in some way invalidate a poll? Do you really believe the other 58% were disinterested and had better things to be doing, like washing their hair?

No. I am not. I am saying that because the referendum was deemed unconstitutional before it was run by the court system in a country which is a democracy and because rule of law actually matters, the referendum was invalid before it was ever held. Because it was ruled unconstitutional. Are you aware that before it even took place it was already invalidated by the court system in Spain? I never mentioned policy brutality. If you're assuming the only problem with that plebiscite was that there was police brutality, you're wrong. It was already deemed illegal before Sunday because it was unconstitutional.

Avatar MIA wrote: »

By such logic all dictators deserve to legitimately remain in power, after all nobody votes against them.

As far as I am aware, Spain is not a dictatorship. Any in any case I think a major constitutional change like independence requires a turn out that does at least exceed half the voting population.

Avatar MIA

Calina wrote: »

No. I am not. I am saying that because the referendum was deemed unconstitutional before it was run by the court system in a country which is a democracy and because rule of law actually matters, the referendum was invalid before it was ever held. Because it was ruled unconstitutional. Are you aware that before it even took place it was already invalidated by the court system in Spain? I never mentioned policy brutality. If you're assuming the only problem with that plebiscite was that there was police brutality, you're wrong. It was already deemed illegal before Sunday because it was unconstitutional.



As far as I am aware, Spain is not a dictatorship. Any in any case I think a major constitutional change like independence requires a turn out that does at least exceed half the voting population.

If you read my post I specifically picked up on your assertion that only a 42% turn out was somehow a factor.

As for a dictatorship... If it quacks like a duck...

A Dub in Glasgo

Calina wrote: »

its turn out was 42%. So the situation is some Catalans have run an unconstitutional plebiscite which a below 50% turn out.

Turnout would have been higher if the Spanish state did not batter the voters off the streets

FrancieBrady

Calina wrote: »

No. I am not. I am saying that because the referendum was deemed unconstitutional before it was run by the court system in a country which is a democracy and because rule of law actually matters, the referendum was invalid before it was ever held. Because it was ruled unconstitutional. Are you aware that before it even took place it was already invalidated by the court system in Spain? I never mentioned policy brutality. If you're assuming the only problem with that plebiscite was that there was police brutality, you're wrong. It was already deemed illegal before Sunday because it was unconstitutional.



As far as I am aware, Spain is not a dictatorship. Any in any case I think a major constitutional change like independence requires a turn out that does at least exceed half the voting population.

There is 'dictatorship' and behaving like a dictatorship.
The differences in the above are pretty much lost on those being 'dictated' to.

Madrid's only response here seems to be to dictate.

An Ciarraioch

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Turnout would have been higher if the Spanish state did not batter the voters off the streets

The one thing we can say for definite is that 38.7% of the total Catalan population voted for independence, so even if we follow Calina's line to the letter and argue that no ballot boxes were seized, that every possible Yes voter went to the polls on Sunday, and that every extra voter were in the No camp, even then, unionists would have required a turnout of 77.5% at least to triumph on the 1st of October. Of course, one can also argue that a legal vote may have been more likely to sway Yes voters to No than vice-versa, but as we currently stand, the No campaign would appear to face a greater challenge in terms of getting the vote out.

An Ciarraioch

A former British Ambassador writing on similar lines:

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/10/mythical-pro-spanish-majority-catalonia/

Water John

The only concept I would accept is, and this is in general, a minimum % of voter turnout in any referendum. Not too high but some min eg one third of the elecorate.

As people on both sides of the demos today say; there needs to be dialogue.

An Ciarraioch

Water John wrote: »

The only concept I would accept is, and this is in general, a minimum % of voter turnout in any referendum. Not too high but some min eg one third of the elecorate.

As people on both sides of the demos today say; there needs to be dialogue.

Fully agree, would imagine one could easily see 70%+ turnout if a compromise were to be agreed.

recedite

Water John wrote: »

The only concept I would accept is, and this is in general, a minimum % of voter turnout in any referendum. Not too high but some min eg one third of the elecorate.

I also agree in general, but any such requirement would have to be made known before the referendum was held. If there wasn't any minimum quota beforehand, then an arbitrary figure should not be introduced afterwards, and especially not if there was voter intimidation.
Anyway, the 42% turnout for this one comfortably exceeds any 33% minimum that could/should have been stipulated in advance.

Eyes Down Field

I wonder how many people here believe that Catalonia will, in the near future, be officially and independent state.? How many believe they will remain a part of Spain after coming to a compromise deal on greater autonomy. Or how many believe Madrid will resist all attempts at secession, perhaps to the point of military force?

An Ciarraioch

One of those stats that make you scratch your head and wonder - the question translates as "If there is a UDI, what should Spain do? Accept independence?": and almost 19% of Catalans respond "Don't know"! If someone can't have a strong opinion either way about something that will directly affect everyone they know, you suspect they never will:

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20171005/251975665_0.html

An Ciarraioch

Eyes Down Field wrote: »

I wonder how many people here believe that Catalonia will, in the near future, be officially and independent state.? How many believe they will remain a part of Spain after coming to a compromise deal on greater autonomy. Or how many believe Madrid will resist all attempts at secession, perhaps to the point of military force?

I suspect that before Tuesday, there will be a deal along the lines of what the Basques have, whereby all tax returns are kept in the region. Flicking through the Economist in the local newsagent, they suggested following that strategy, giving the various minorities in Spain the status of "cultural nations" and allowing a referendum in order to win it on the basis of continued EU membership, all of which seemed sound advice.

Water John

Well if its about identity mainly, then that can be accommodated in most situations unless their is a large % fanatically in favour of UDI.
Don't agree that each area should hold onto its own taxes and money. That will over time lead to a further distortion and a less egalitarian society in Spain. The haves get richer and the have nots in poorer areas get poorer.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

Well if its about identity mainly, then that can be accommodated in most situations unless their is a large % fanatically in favour of UDI.
Don't agree that each area should hold onto its own taxes and money. That will over time lead to a further distortion and a less egalitarian society in Spain. The haves get richer and the have nots in poorer areas get poorer.

The EU uses a system not unlike that for redistributing largess to poorer areas. The member state keeps its taxes, and remits the customs duties and a proportion of the VAT to the EU.

Spain could tailor a similar approach re its regions - keep enough to pay for foreign affairs, the central judicial system, and the defence forces.

Water John

Rajoy, doesn't change his spots and rules out mediation.

Obvious Otter

Any Declaration of Independence at this point is futile as it would be met was with strong resistance considering the turnout of the election and the circumstances it was held under. There are serious question marks over whether the majority would want such a decision. The Spanish Goverment should agree to a referendum and give the people of Catalonia their basic democratic rights but the turnout should have to be above 50% to make any such result valid.

A Dub in Glasgo

Obvious Otter wrote: »

Any Declaration of Independence at this point is futile as it would be met was with strong resistance considering the turnout of the election and the circumstances it was held under. There are serious question marks over whether the majority would want such a decision. The Spanish Goverment should agree to a referendum and give the people of Catalonia their basic democratic rights but the turnout should have to be above 50% to make any such result valid.

Considering the Spanish police battered the fcuk out of the people of Catalonia to ensure they did not vote? Is that what you mean?