Catalan independence referendum, 2017

feargale

Water John wrote: »

Rajoy, doesn't change his spots and rules out mediation.

What do you expect from the heirs of Franco?

Samaris

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Considering the Spanish police battered the fcuk out of the people of Catalonia to ensure they did not vote? Is that what you mean?

That was one major issue, yes. Another was that ballots were stolen (again, by the central Spanish police), polling stations were closed (see previous), and critically, that those who did not want independence were far less likely to vote, being a lot more likely to take the Constitutional Court's ruling that it was not valid. It doesn't actually matter who was responsible for that bit going bad (mostly Spain, not sure Puigdemont did much to avoid it though), the problem is that there's an apparently swingeing majority except no-one really knows how reliable that number actually is, and that is never a good position to start making drastic changes to a nation.

This is not about whether Puigdemont or Rajoy wins. I'm dubious about both of them, tbh. Both are doing what they were elected to do (ref on independence/hold Spain together), but I'm not sure either are doing it well. Either way, it's the people of Catalonia (and Spain) that will be the ones to actually suffer if this is not what they want. And at the moment, it's not really known what they want.

If they do rerun the referendum, well, there's enough anger raised that it may well go the same way. But at least it will be clearer and an awful lot of people won't feel they are being ripped out of their country (and being made to choose between nation and region) at the whim of a secessionist government. The protests were starting today and will be up again tomorrow. Fewer flags, but a lot of people with Hablemos/Parlem, which seems like a saner place to start. If it all goes downhill, then it does, but at least exhausting (and/or trying) diplomacy first would seem wise.

Catalonia certainly has decent arguments for independence - IF they want it. But they'd really want to be sure they do want it, because they'll have a rough couple of decades to survive if they go like this, especially with a strongly anti-secessionist PM in charge.

Mostly, it sounds like Catalonia wants to be listened to. And they're fed up with Rajoy feeding the "Catalan question" to distract from economic woes.

Fratton Fred

It it interesting that France has come out and flatly refused to recognise an independent Catalonia. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41551337

is this support for a European ally, or trying to quickly stamp out any thoughts of independence for their potentially want away regions both home and away?

An Ciarraioch

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It it interesting that France has come out and flatly refused to recognise an independent Catalonia. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41551337

is this support for a European ally, or trying to quickly stamp out any thoughts of independence for their potentially want away regions both home and away?

To be expected - firstly, because France, as you say, only recognises French as an official language, and hardly wants to give any encouragement to Brittany, Corsica, Occitania etc. Secondly, no EU member is going to accept territory of another unilaterally seceding. An interesting suggestion was made by one Catalan MEP, citing Slovenia, namely that the UDI would go ahead before being immediately suspended, to allow negotiations with Spain. If Madrid continued to refuse a legal referendum, then the Catalans would start seeking international recognition, on the grounds of having met their side of the bargain.

Water John

The're are 3 Basque provinces in France. That's the reason.

Calina

Water John wrote: »

The're are 3 Basque provinces in France. That's the reason.

Please do not confuse the Basque country and Catalonia. Yes they both have independence movements and they both straddle the Franco-Panish border. But they are still different places.

feargale

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It it interesting that France has come out and flatly refused to recognise an independent Catalonia. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41551337

is this support for a European ally, or trying to quickly stamp out any thoughts of independence for their potentially want away regions both home and away?

More the latter than the former, I would think. The French are paranoid about regionalism. And in this instance they could be nervous about Roussillon/Pyrenees Orientales, taken from Spain in 1659 and traditionally Catalan. But I believe there is virtually no appetite in Catalonia for ever incorporating that territory. It's a lost cause, having become French in sentiment within a short time of the French takeover, though the language survived intact until the late 19th century and is still spoken by a very substantial minority.
Incidentally I believe Mr. Jammet of Jammets Restaurant in Nassau St. was a Catalan from there.

Water John

Calina, I'm not stupid. France is simply afraid of cross border situations, a la the Kurds.
Fully aware we are discussing Catalonia, as per Thread Heading.

An Ciarraioch

feargale wrote: »

More the latter than the former, I would think. The French are paranoid about regionalism. And in this instance they could be nervous about Roussillon/Pyrenees Orientales, taken from Spain in 1659 and traditionally Catalan. But I believe there is virtually no appetite in Catalonia for ever incorporating that territory. It's a lost cause, having become French in sentiment within a short time of the French takeover, though the language survived intact until the late 19th century and is still spoken by a very substantial minority.
Incidentally I believe Mr. Jammet of Jammets Restaurant in Nassau St. was a Catalan from there.

And former PM, Manuel Valls, came from Barcelona originally.

feargale

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

To be expected - firstly, because France, as you say, only recognises French as an official language, and hardly wants to give any encouragement to Brittany, Corsica, Occitania etc. Secondly, no EU member is going to accept territory of another unilaterally seceding. An interesting suggestion was made by one Catalan MEP, citing Slovenia, namely that the UDI would go ahead before being immediately suspended, to allow negotiations with Spain. If Madrid continued to refuse a legal referendum, then the Catalans would start seeking international recognition, on the grounds of having met their side of the bargain.

Serbia has cited the inconsistency of the EU championing self-determination for Kosovo while denying it to Catalonia.

If Madrid had kept the head as Westminster did re Scotland it is highly unlikely that anything would have changed or that the present mess would have ensued. But some jurisdictions are relatively new to democracy and still have much to learn.

jimmycrackcorm

feargale wrote:

Serbia has cited the inconsistency of the EU championing self-determination for Kosovo while denying it to Catalonia.

Not surprising given the history there.

feargale wrote:

If Madrid had kept the head as Westminster did re Scotland it is highly unlikely that anything would have changed or that the present mess would have ensued. But some jurisdictions are relatively new to democracy and still have much to learn.

Catalonia and Scotland aren't comparable.

Fr Tod Umptious

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Not surprising given the history there.



Catalonia and Scotland aren't comparable.

And what Kosovo broke away from was the rump Yugoslavia, not another EU nation as is the case here so comparisons between Kosovo/Serbian and Catalonia/Spain with regards recognition are futile.

An Ciarraioch

Interestingly, Catalonia already permits secession from itself for an Occitan-speaking valley:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1CE1D9

josip

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And what Kosovo broke away from was the rump Yugoslavia, not another EU nation as is the case here so comparisons between Kosovo/Serbian and Catalonia/Spain with regards recognition are futile.

Do you mean that all sovereigns are equal but EU sovereigns are more equal than others?

feargale

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Not surprising given the history there.

Not clear what you mean by this.

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Catalonia and Scotland aren't comparable.

Scotland doesn't speak Catalan and hasn't suffered savage repression in the 20th century. Of course no two countries are the same but I'm curious as to what other profound differences you see. Over the past two years or so mention of the one has frequently been accompanied by mention of the other.

Fr Tod Umptious

josip wrote: »

Do you mean that all sovereigns are equal but EU sovereigns are more equal than others?

Well quite frankly yes.

May not be fair correct but that's the reality.

ilkhanid

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And what Kosovo broke away from was the rump Yugoslavia, not another EU nation as is the case here so comparisons between Kosovo/Serbian and Catalonia/Spain with regards recognition are futile.

Another very significant difference: Kosovo was only incorporated into Serbia as late as 1912-and by force.

josip

ilkhanid wrote: »

Another very significant difference: Kosovo was only incorporated into Serbia as late as 1912-and by force.

Kosovo was never part of Serbia before 1912?

An Ciarraioch

Still seems unclear what Puigdemont will actually say five hours from now - hints so far that it will be a UDI, but done in stages to allow for some wiggle room in terms of talks with Madrid.

recedite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

... but done in stages to allow for some wiggle room in terms of talks with Madrid.

I think stages would be a mistake because
a) Madrid has shown no flexibility in its position. There will be no talks.

b) The policing situation is very delicate in terms of loyalties. Currently the Mossos dEsquadra are in a very unfair position, being required to obey Spanish authority but also not wanting to be the enemy of Catalan people. If the Mossos were directly ordered to shut down the Catalan regional govt. assembly today, who knows what would happen.
But following a UDI they would be answerable only to Catalan authority.

The locally based national police would then be obliged to take a back seat. Following that, they would either await reinforcements or withdraw from Catalonia.

feargale

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well quite frankly yes.

May not be fair correct but that's the reality.

Yes because there's a democratic deficit in the EU that gets very little airing. And pusillanimous states like Ireland do little to remedy that.

An Ciarraioch

Guardian live thread with latest developments:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/10/catalan-parliament-discusses-independence-referendum-live

Itssoeasy

The address of the Catalonia president has been delayed by an hour. I was just watching a bit of CNN showing live pictures of the Parliament and you'd think with the parliament about to declare independence they'd be happy but it didn't look happiness. The few shots of people in the chamber it was a bit tense.

Regardless of what happens this evening, it will be historic and maybe the weight of history is weighing on the Catalonia government.

VinLieger

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The address of the Catalonia president has been delayed by an hour. I was just watching a bit of CNN showing live pictures of the Parliament and you'd think with the parliament about to declare independence they'd be happy but it didn't look happiness. The few shots of people in the chamber it was a bit tense.

Regardless of what happens this evening, it will be historic and maybe the weight of history is weighing on the Catalonia government.

I think reality started to hit home over the weekend when several banks moved headquarters out of barcelona without blinking and eye, they have to be asking themselves how many other businesses are waiting to flip the switch depending on todays speech

FrancieBrady

Eleventh hour mediation underway.

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Eleventh hour mediation underway.

According to who ?

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

According to who ?

Reading the Guardian Live blog. Seems it was this instead:

Spanish media are reporting Carles Puigdemont asked for the postponement because the radical pro-independence CUP party is unhappy with the wording of his declaration.

Itssoeasy

Catalan president speaking in the Catalan parliament.

jimmycrackcorm

feargale wrote:

Scotland doesn't speak Catalan and hasn't suffered savage repression in the 20th century. Of course no two countries are the same but I'm curious as to what other profound differences you see. Over the past two years or so mention of the one has frequently been accompanied by mention of the other.

Scotland is and has been actually a country. If anything catalonia is more akin to Northern Ireland, a region.

sjb25

Most of the politicians here look very peeed off I think