Catalan independence referendum, 2017

An Ciarraioch

marienbad wrote: »

What standing does such a formulation have ? That could be made to apply to virtually anywhere ?

Is there not a Constitutional process to resolve these issues ? Surely that should be exhausted first

The various Catalan governments have been working through the various constitutional channels since 2006, and have been told on each occasion that a legal referendum would be impossible.

marienbad

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The various Catalan governments have been working through the various constitutional channels since 2006, and have been told on each occasion that a legal referendum would be impossible.

So maybe that is the correct answer for now , after all they are party to the Constitution .

An Ciarraioch

marienbad wrote: »

So maybe that is the correct answer for now , after all they are party to the Constitution .

A brief history of the Spanish right - when it became clear that Francoism as a system was dead, the leading members of the regime split in two directions. The liberal wing (Union of the Democratic Centre) introduced the 1978 Constitution, but were plagued by in-fighting, and effectively became defunct in 1982. The conservative wing (Popular Alliance) filled the gap by appealing to traditional Spanish values, ultimately becoming the present PP. Because their electoral heartland is in Castillian Spanish areas, they have little interest in constitutional reform, but the Catalans have to appeal to them to keep the EU happy.

recedite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Spain Report say that he has until Monday to clarify whether the UDI is valid, and if so, until Thursday to go back on it. If there's no reply by then, the article will automatically take effect.
http://www.eldiario.es

OK it is being widely reported now. Rajoy seems to have decided to impose this deadline during the day, whereas earlier there was none mentioned.
If Puigdemont says "No formal declaration", he may still get to wriggle away.
Not much point in that though, he may as well face his destiny (which he created himself anyway by organising the binding referendum).

He has two options now;
1. Use the 5 days to ratchet up Catalan national fervour, culminating in a patriotic reading of a formal Declaration of Independence. Then hope that the large crowds of supporters will deter Madrid from moving in to arrest him.
2. Deny he ever declared independence, and then try to become very inconspicuous.

An Ciarraioch

Seems to lean towards option 1, judging by this tweet:

https://mobile.twitter.com/KRLS/status/918204043033567234

BalcombeSt4

Would they not go for a Catalan state within in a Federal Spain like during the Spanish Republic era?

An Ciarraioch

BalcombeSt4 wrote: »

Would they not go for a Catalan state within in a Federal Spain like during the Spanish Republic era?

That seems to be what Rajoy's reference to "all-party constitutional reform" would imply, but if anything, the voters are more radical than the main Catalan party, so wouldn't be prepared to wait six months for something that has no details so far.

marienbad

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A brief history of the Spanish right - when it became clear that Francoism as a system was dead, the leading members of the regime split in two directions. The liberal wing (Union of the Democratic Centre) introduced the 1978 Constitution, but were plagued by in-fighting, and effectively became defunct in 1982. The conservative wing (Popular Alliance) filled the gap by appealing to traditional Spanish values, ultimately becoming the present PP. Because their electoral heartland is in Castillian Spanish areas, they have little interest in constitutional reform, but the Catalans have to appeal to them to keep the EU happy.

Well that is one version I suppose .

Another is that there was a democratic process and referendum and thus a constitution was passed .

That constitution allows for change and its members are not all in thrall to Madrid .

The Catalan independence movement on the other hand is a mainly ethnic middle class one that does not even have majority support in Catalonia .

So who are the democrats here ?

The Golden Miller

marienbad wrote: »

Well that is one version I suppose .

Another is that there was a democratic process and referendum and thus a constitution was passed .

That constitution allows for change and its members are not all in thrall to Madrid .

The Catalan independence movement on the other hand is a mainly ethnic middle class one that does not even have majority support in Catalonia .

So who are the democrats here ?

Can these things really be described as a "democratic process" though? Those with a vested interest in making things suit themselves, give a people a bad option and a lesser bad option, knowing the people will choose the lesser bad option and then championing it as democracy, all the while knowing they never put a good option on the table for them?

marienbad

The Golden Miller wrote: »

Can these things really be described as a "democratic process" though? Those with a vested interest in making things suit themselves, give a people a bad option and a lesser bad option, knowing the people will choose the lesser bad option and then championing it as democracy, all the while knowing they never put a good option on the table for them?

Why can it not be described as a democratic process ? The transition to democracy in Spain after Franco was one of the great post war achievements in Europe .

The army faced down , all parties , including the communists accepted , free and fair elections , a constitution drawn up , a referendum on it passed , all done in an astonishingly short time frame .

The Golden Miller

marienbad wrote: »

Why can it not be described as a democratic process ? The transition to democracy in Spain after Franco was one of the great post war achievements in Europe .

The army faced down , all parties , including the communists accepted , free and fair elections , a constitution drawn up , a referendum on it passed , all done in an astonishingly short time frame .

Indeed, a very astonishingly short time. It's almost as if the Catalans wanted to take the hand off ye for any deal that was better than a 40 year dictatorship. The word democratic "process" could be used loosely I suppose, but I fail to see how selective options that suit one party can be deemed as democracy in action. From anything I've read or heard, the alternatives to ratifying the constitution wasn't going to be pretty.

marienbad

The Golden Miller wrote: »

Indeed, a very astonishingly short time. It's almost as if the Catalans wanted to take the hand off ye for any deal that was better than a 40 year dictatorship. The word democratic "process" could be used loosely I suppose, but I fail to see how selective options that suit one party can be deemed as democracy in action. From anything I've read or heard, the alternatives to ratifying the constitution wasn't going to be pretty.

But really Golden Miller this is just projecting backwards without any real evidence . That fact is a democratic process was agreed when most of the doubters believed that the Francoists/military would never give up power and a democratic State formed , but they did and it was . There is no denying that fact afterwards or saying it wasn't this that or the other.

There was a referendum and there is a Constitution .

There is no getting round this fact and there is a mechanism for change

The Golden Miller

marienbad wrote: »

But really Golden Miller this is just projecting backwards without any real evidence . That fact is a democratic process was agreed when most of the doubters believed that the Francoists/military would never give up power and a democratic State formed , but they did and it was . There is no denying that fact afterwards or saying it wasn't this that or the other. I think any right minded person would see this as a facade of democracy, selective at it's finest to suit the controlling interest

There was a referendum and there is a Constitution .

There is no getting round this fact and there is a mechanism for change

Is the "pact of forgetting/silence" not evidence enough? So much as it let ministers under the dictatorship continue to control the process with no redress for their earlier crimes? The alternative to the constitution was a step back into the regime. There is no realistic mechanism for change in the constitution, so far as self-determination is concerned, and was done so for that very reason. I think to any right minded person, the constitution is little more than a facade of democracy and selective at it's finest to suit the controlling interest, as the regime was never overthrown or fully went away

An Ciarraioch

Indeed - see Giles Tremlett's book "Ghosts of Spain", which highlights the "pact of forgetting" and how the present-day parties still obstruct inquiries pertaining to new discoveries relating to the Civil War.

An Ciarraioch

One initiative that initially passed through the Spanish constitutional route, but various articles were struck out:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statute_of_Autonomy_of_Catalonia

marienbad

The Golden Miller wrote: »

Is the "pact of forgetting/silence" not evidence enough? So much as it let ministers under the dictatorship continue to control the process with no redress for their earlier crimes? The alternative to the constitution was a step back into the regime. There is no realistic mechanism for change in the constitution, so far as self-determination is concerned, and was done so for that very reason. I think to any right minded person, the constitution is little more than a facade of democracy and selective at it's finest to suit the controlling interest, as the regime was never overthrown or fully went away

I don't think so , it was agreed by both the Left and Right that it was a necessary step, however distasteful , in order to progress democracy at the time .

Though I do agree the time for it is past and probably some form of truth and reconciliation process is called for .

No matter how many are reluctant to accept it there is no doubting Spain's democratic credentials . Can the same be said for the Catalan independence movement ?

I am curious - why are so many people reflexively pro Catalan independence ?

The Golden Miller

marienbad wrote: »

I don't think so , it was agreed by both the Left and Right that it was a necessary step, however distasteful , in order to progress democracy at the time .

Though I do agree the time for it is past and probably some form of truth and reconciliation process is called for .

No matter how many are reluctant to accept it there is no doubting Spain's democratic credentials . Can the same be said for the Catalan independence movement ?

I am curious - why are so many people reflexively pro Catalan independence ?

Yes, a necessary step for the controlling power and it's subjects to meet half way, but done in the controlling powers interest. There is much doubting in Spain's democratic credentials as far as I'm concerned, and as you say this all happened very quickly at the time. I find it hard to believe that a dictatorship would give up all it's power and enter democracy in such a short space of time with no strings attached, and as such we had the "pact of forgetting/silence". Did the regime really end seeing as many of it's most prominent ministers were also many of the most prominent players in this new "democratic" state? Even today, as An Carraioch alludes to, those in direct lineage to Franco seem to vetoing and obstructing things left, right and center when something doesn't suit them.

As far as I can see, the Catalan government has gone down every legal and democratic avenue available to it, only to be refuted time and time again, and now it's come to this. I think this pro-Catalan reflex stems from the fact most people believe a distinct nation has the right to self-determination at the very least. As you say, alot of talking needs to be done, but not too dissimilar to the attitude of unionists in the north, I don't believe that will exists on the Spanish side

An Ciarraioch

Not necessarily pro-independence, but polls have consistently shown that 70-80% of Catalans want a referendum to be held:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_referendum%2C_2017#Opinion_polls

marienbad

The Golden Miller wrote: »

Yes, a necessary step for the controlling power and it's subjects to meet half way, but done in the controlling powers interest. There is much doubting in Spain's democratic credentials as far as I'm concerned, and as you say this all happened very quickly at the time. I find it hard to believe that a dictatorship would give up all it's power and enter democracy in such a short space of time with no strings attached, and as such we had the "pact of forgetting/silence". Did the regime really end seeing as many of it's most prominent ministers were also many of the most prominent players once it because "democratic". Even today, as An Carraioch alludes to, those in direct lineage to Franco seem to vetoing and obstructing things left, right and center when it doesn't suit.

Because most people believe a distinct nation has the right to self-determination at the very least.

Just because you find it hard to believe doesn't mean it didn't happen - it did . And it is not as if they were not what many considered 'insurmountable obstacles ' to be overcome . There were , the objections of the military , the fear of the military , the replacement of the hawks in the military . The hatred of the Communist party , the acceptance by the Left that the process could work etc etc . All were overcome

That denial of the legitimacy of the Spanish State is just romantic stubbornness , some tendency to always side with the perceived little guy .

So can we take a look at this so called little guy - en ethnic nationalist middle class movement that cannot even command a majority in its own so called 'heartland '

How democratic is that ?

An Ciarraioch

marienbad wrote: »

Just because you find it hard to believe doesn't mean it didn't happen - it did . And it is not as if they were not what many considered 'insurmountable obstacles ' to be overcome . There were , the objections of the military , the fear of the military , the replacement of the hawks in the military . The hatred of the Communist party , the acceptance by the Left that the process could work etc etc . All were overcome

That denial of the legitimacy of the Spanish State is just romantic stubbornness , some tendency to always side with the perceived little guy .

So can we take a look at this so called little guy - en ethnic nationalist middle class movement that cannot even command a majority in its own so called 'heartland '

How democratic is that ?

The Transition was rather more cosmetic than popular myth would believe - akin to Communist leaders switching to new parties after the fall of the Iron Curtain. For one, Juan Carlos was appointed by Franco to be his successor as head of state, and the various leaders invented new political vehicles with an eye to gaining membership in the then European Community. The opposition forces were only legalised once they agreed to abide by conditions set by the transitional government, and the 1981 coup can thus be viewed in a similar manner to the 1991 August coup in Russia - the ultras versus the reformers, but both of the same backgrounds.

An Ciarraioch

An interesting article on the tpoic:

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/catalonia-and-spain-the-end-of-the-beginning/

recedite

marienbad wrote: »

en ethnic nationalist middle class movement that cannot even command a majority in its own so called 'heartland

Can you explain why you think the independence movement is "ethnic" and "middle class" and in a minority despite the referendum win?

marienbad

recedite wrote: »

Can you explain why you think the independence movement is "ethnic" and "middle class" and in a minority despite the referendum win?

That referendum has about as much credibility as a fourpenny bit . It is middle class and ethnic ! Most working class parties are against it .

Samaris

recedite wrote: »

Can you explain why you think the independence movement is "ethnic" and "middle class" and in a minority despite the referendum win?

Well, ethnic can be argued by "Catalan", I suppose. Don't know about middle-class. Minority is the easiest to argue, since polling up to the referendum put it in the minority. It took voter suppression, agitation, a silent protest vote (from those that didn't want independence) and police brutality to win it.

When about to do something that will cause wholescale disruption to an entire country, it is worth being absolutely sure that this is what the people want.

The people wanted a referendum, but not necessarily independence. Mostly, they wanted to be listened to.

An Ciarraioch

marienbad wrote: »

That referendum has about as much credibility as a fourpenny bit . It is middle class and ethnic ! Most working class parties are against it .

Would hardly call Ciudadanos a "working class party"! Podemos are, however, and favour a referendum, as do the local left-wing CUP, who appeal to a similar demographic background.

marienbad

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Transition was rather more cosmetic than popular myth would believe - akin to Communist leaders switching to new parties after the fall of the Iron Curtain. For one, Juan Carlos was appointed by Franco to be his successor as head of state, and the various leaders invented new political vehicles with an eye to gaining membership in the then European Community. The opposition forces were only legalised once they agreed to abide by conditions set by the transitional government, and the 1981 coup can thus be viewed in a similar manner to the 1991 August coup in Russia - the ultras versus the reformers, but both of the same backgrounds.

Nothing cosmetic about it , once it was agreed not to have some form of reconciliation commission it was inevitable that many of the old guard would be elected . Such is the nature of democracy . It may amaze some of us that Michael Lowry et al continue to top the polls election after election , but such is the nature of democracy , so it was and is in Spain .

it must have been equalling galling to the right to see members of the Communist Party elected , but such is life . There really can be no arguing with the legitimacy of the process and the overwhelming victory of the PSOE in the 1982 election and subsequent elections coupled with the smooth transition of power confirmed that process .

So Spain is as much a legitimate democracy as we are , or Germany or any of the former East Bloc countries .

Now instead of constantly trying to argue the legitimacy of the Spanish State does anyone have a view of the legitimacy of the Catalan independence movement to speak for all of Catalonia and all of Spain ?

Now don't get me wrong I am not saying that the Spanish Government have not acted in a cack handed manner , but they do have a duty to defend the State .

recedite

marienbad wrote: »

Now instead of constantly trying to argue the legitimacy of the Spanish State does anyone have a view of the legitimacy of the Catalan independence movement to speak for all of Catalonia and all of Spain ?

Its very simple.
The Catalan independence movement believe in the right of all those in Catalonia (and I noticed they also waited to count the votes of some Catalans who had cast their vote while abroad) to speak for all of Catalonia, but not for all of Spain.

marienbad

recedite wrote: »

Its very simple.
The Catalan independence movement believe in the right of all those in Catalonia (and I noticed they also waited to count the votes of some Catalans who had cast their vote while abroad) to speak for all of Catalonia, but not for all of Spain.

So what ? They are part of a union that was arrived at by constitutional means and should only be sundered by similar means .

They can't even command a majority within Catalonia .

Just as a side note - do you think any region anywhere should be allowed to break away from the main at any time ?

recedite

marienbad wrote: »

Just as a side note - do you think any region anywhere should be allowed to break away from the main at any time ?

There's no hard and fast rule about it, but IMO any region which is large enough for an independent existence, has a particular or unique culture, and consults it's people via a referendum (well flagged and well discussed over a reasonable period of time) has the right to self-determination.
I'd also be inclined to specify a 55-60% or more majority should be necessary for a change of sovereignty, regardless of voter turnout, otherwise you could have the issue swinging back and forth every few years.

Size and population wise, I'd put the minimum requirement roughly at the size of a province or an oblast. That would include N. Ireland, Kosovo, Crimea, and of course Catalonia.

An Ciarraioch

1. There is no instance of an independence referendum which involved anywhere/one apart from the separatist region in question, so international precedent should trump the national constitution.

2. It is up to you to prove the converse - if a region elects a government (or national representatives if not self-governing) on a platform based on independence, why shouldn't they have the right to secede, provided there are clear ethnic, religious or linguistic grounds for the political differences with the main nation?