Catalan independence referendum, 2017

marienbad

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

1. There is no instance of an independence referendum which involved anywhere/one apart from the separatist region in question, so international precedent should trump the national constitution.

2. It is up to you to prove the converse - if a region elects a government (or national representatives if not self-governing) on a platform based on independence, why shouldn't they have the right to secede, provided there are clear ethnic, religious or linguistic grounds for the political differences with the main nation?

(1) the Good Friday agreement . And on what basis should international precedent override a democratically agreed constitution ?

(2)Why on earth is it up to me to prove the converse ? Did the Confederate States have a right to secede ? Does the 6 counties have the right to independence ? Your formula is just a recipe for chaos and the shredding of agreements democratically arrived at .

feargale

marienbad wrote: »

So can we take a look at this so called little guy - en ethnic nationalist middle class movement

Doesn't everybody get to vote once whether middle class or whatever? Where did the Spanish right come upon this newfound empathy with the small man?

marienbad wrote: »

that cannot even command a majority in its own so called 'heartland

It is extremely rich to go on and on about separatists being a minority when the Catalan government made an honest effort to determine the views of the Catalan people only to be met with Madrid making every effort to disrupt that poll. Thanks to Madrid, the only valid poll we now have shows an overwhelming majority favouring independence. Those dismissing separatists as a minority are showing an utter contempt of truth and of the democratic process. It's more than rich to persist in asserting that the separatists are a minority while implementing or favouring the implementation of the disruption of the referendum. If unionists are a majority, why the fear of a poll that would put the whole issue to bed, that would kill the independence movement?
In the hours after the votes were cast, Rajoy flatly denied any referendum had even taken place. It seems Rajoy is not the only one who is playing fast and loose with the facts.

An Ciarraioch

marienbad wrote: »

(1) the Good Friday agreement . And on what basis should international precedent override a democratically agreed constitution ?

(2)Why on earth is it up to me to prove the converse ? Did the Confederate States have a right to secede ? Does the 6 counties have the right to independence ? Your formula is just a recipe for chaos and the shredding of agreements democratically arrived at .

Re the CSA, see the ethnic/linguistic criteria, otherwise any US state would just up sticks willy-nilly. As for NI, whenever the political arithmetic in Stormont changes, and does so for a sustained period, that will be evidence that the time for a poll on its constitutional status has come.

An Ciarraioch

A significant development tonight, as the influential civic pro-indy group ANC has called for the suspension to be lifted.

Samaris

feargale wrote: »

It is extremely rich to go on and on about separatists being a minority when the Catalan government made an honest effort to determine the views ofvthe Catalan people only to be met with Madrid making every effort to disrupt that poll. Thanks to Madrid, the only valid poll we now have shows an overwhelming majority favouring independence. Those dismissing separatists as a minority are showing an utter contempt of truth and of the democratic process. It's more than rich to persist in asserting that the separatists are a minority while implementing or favouring the implementation of the disruption of the referendum. If unionists are a majority, why the fear of a poll that would put the whole issue to bed, that would kill the independence movement?
In the hours after the votes were cast, Rajoy flatly denied any referendum had even taken place. It seems Rajoy is not the only one who is playing fast and loose with the facts.

Without specifically agreeing with marienbad, it's a bit rich to accuse those calling the separatists a minority "utterly contemptuous of truth and the democratic process".

I for one suspect they are a minority because opinions leading up to the referendum tended to have the separatists with less than half the country behind them, and the referendum itself was a chaotic mess (not the fault of the Catalan people). Given what's happened since, this may have changed, but it hardly invalidates the past data. Now, there has been an increase in Catalan nationalism over the past few years, since..I think about 2009 it started gathering steam, not least due to Rajoy's policies in the last few years and his perhaps using the "Catalan question" to distract from economic woes. It had not, as of the Monday before the referendum, become the position of the majority, although most wanted to be able to have a referendum.

I don't quite get your argument that one is contemptuous of democracy for wanting to know what the will of the people is - or rather, wanting them to know what it is - before making any rash moves. If it comes to that, I don't quite see what estimations of the size of the separatist movement has to do with anyone's opinion of what Madrid got up to. One can have sympathy for the Catalan people, sympathy for a push for independence and sympathy for those who want to remain part of Spain without being contemptuous [etc]. Rather that my respect for democracy leads me at least to prefer to be sure of what the will of the people is (more importantly, that they know what the will of the people is!).

marienbad

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Re the CSA, see the ethnic/linguistic criteria, otherwise any US state would just up sticks willy-nilly. As for NI, whenever the political arithmetic in Stormont changes, and does so for a sustained period, that will be evidence that the time for a poll on its constitutional status has come.

They are just your criteria plucked out of thin air to suit your argument . Any secessionist entity can conjure up why they are different .

But even by your own criteria Catalonia doesn't measure up , more people speak Spanish on a daily basis than Catalan .

marienbad

feargale wrote: »

Doesn't everybody get to vote once whether middle class or whatever? Where did the Spanish right come upon this newfound empathy with the small man?

.

The Spanish right ?? All the main left wing parties are also against the separatist movement .

As for the rest of your post , I really don't know what to make of it - even international bodies have said the so called referendum had no standing .

recedite

Samaris wrote: »

I for one suspect they are a minority because opinions leading up to the referendum tended to have the separatists with less than half the country behind them, and the referendum itself was a chaotic mess

"Less than half" if you include all the "don't knows" and "abstentions" in the total.
But an honest appraisal of the statistics in the polls would compare those who actually gave an opinion, in which case the pro-independence side seemed to be slightly ahead, most of the time.
It was obvious that a referendum was needed to properly decide the issue.

An Ciarraioch

marienbad wrote: »

The Spanish right ?? All the main left wing parties are also against the separatist movement .

As for the rest of your post , I really don't know what to make of it - even international bodies have said the so called referendum had no standing .

Only the Socialists oppose a referendum, Podemos and the parties of the Catalan left all favour one.

marienbad

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Only the Socialists oppose a referendum, Podemos and the parties of the Catalan left all favour one.

All the left wing parties as far as I know oppose independence

feargale

marienbad wrote: »

But even by your own criteria Catalonia doesn't measure up , more people speak Spanish on a daily basis than Catalan .

And the percentage in Ireland who speak Irish on a daily basis?

marienbad

feargale wrote: »

And the percentage in Ireland who speak Irish on a daily basis?

I don't get the relevance ?

CroFag

Comparing Ireland to Spain is not serious, so please don't keep embarrassing yourselves.

Catalonia has blossomed, while part of Spain for the last 3 centuries.

Selfish nationalism will not bring anything good to the ordinary people in Catalonia, on the opposite, they'll be forced to pay very high price for "independence".

They are already independent in many ways and in a "independent country" they might end up with less independence, if the foreign powers & capital takes control like in many small nations in Europe & around the world. It will be independent on paper, like my country Rep. of Croatia. Our capital is effectively not Zagreb, but Berlin, Brussels & Washington.

An Ciarraioch

Article 155 takes effect on Thursday, so either the Catalans take the plunge now, or they'll never again get the chance.

An Ciarraioch

Especially when the head of the Mossos could be jailed for "sedition" in two hours' time:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171016/432122622258/fiscalia-prision-incondicional-major-trapero.html

Brendan Bendar

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Especially when the head of the Mossos could be jailed for "sedition" in two hours' time:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171016/432122622258/fiscalia-prision-incondicional-major-trapero.html

And hopefully will.

An Ciarraioch

Sizeable crowds at tonight's Barcelona protest:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jaumeclotet/status/920357923888484358

recedite

IMO Puigedemont is not doing enough to harness popular support, or to seize the apparatus of the state (eg declare himself to be the provisional president of an independent republic, and claim immediate effective control of the Mossos police)
If he is not careful, all the leadership will be arrested one by one, including himself. And that will be the end of it.

An Ciarraioch

recedite wrote: »

IMO Puigedemont is not doing enough to harness popular support, or to seize the apparatus of the state (eg declare himself to be the provisional president of an independent republic, and claim immediate effective control of the Mossos police)
If he is not careful, all the leadership will be arrested one by one, including himself. And that will be the end of it.

It seems they would only act after Thursday's deadline, though if the Generalitat is formally dissolved then, how could they ratify the Declaration?

https://mobile.twitter.com/JanneRiitakorpi/status/920310012790169600

recedite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

if the Generalitat is formally dissolved then, how could they ratify the Declaration?

They could still claim to be a provisional govt. (even after being declared illegal by Madrid) The procedure then would be to have elections as soon as practicable, which would then produce the first official govt. and the first president of the new republic.
The longer they wait though, the weaker and messier their position.
This indecisiveness could lead to their downfall.

An Ciarraioch

As it transpires, there would be a week to spare between the activation of the article and its implementation. Puigdemont's own party now wants the suspension lifted:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171018/432167766321/pdecat-puigdemont-suspension-aplica-155.html

v638sg7k1a92bx

recedite wrote: »

IMO Puigedemont is not doing enough to harness popular support, or to seize the apparatus of the state (eg declare himself to be the provisional president of an independent republic, and claim immediate effective control of the Mossos police)
If he is not careful, all the leadership will be arrested one by one, including himself. And that will be the end of it.

Seize apparatus of the sate, declare himself president and claim immediate control of the Mossos, is this a militay coup you're suggesting???

An Ciarraioch

Celia Late Troop wrote: »

Seize apparatus of the sate, declare himself president and claim immediate control of the Mossos, is this a militay coup you're suggesting???

I think he means using the governmental powers that are already under Catalan control, such as votes in Parliament. The Mossos are already under Catalan jurisdiction.

recedite

Celia Late Troop wrote: »

.. is this a military coup you're suggesting???

No, did I mention the military?

Rajoy's deadline has expired now, so he should be pushing for the imposition of direct rule. However Puigedemont is now claiming that he never declared independence. The timing of this retreat is unclear, but he seems to have waited until after the deadline expired, which would technically make it too late. Will Rajoy accept it anyway?
Its like watching a battle between two slugs

recedite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Mossos are already under Catalan jurisdiction.

They may be administered from Catalonia, but they are still obliged to obey instructions from central legal authorities. If Catalonia declared independence, they would be free of that obligation. But the downside is they could come into conflict with national police having different orders.
For example if Madrid ordered the arrest of Puigedemont.

v638sg7k1a92bx

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I think he means using the governmental powers that are already under Catalan control, such as votes in Parliament. The Mossos are already under Catalan jurisdiction.

But they can't even get the votes in parliament which is why they broke the rules of their own regional government - not the Spanish Constitution - to hold the "referendum" in the first place.

v638sg7k1a92bx

recedite wrote: »

No, did I mention the military?

The net result is the same. He has no mandate democratically, constitutionally or otherwise.

An Ciarraioch

The PP and PSOE plan to call Catalan elections in January, and would take control of the regional broadcaster, TV3, to render it "neutral" (for which read loyal to Madrid).

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, the next session of the Catalan Parliament will be fixed on Monday morning (presumably with only one, rather predictable, item on the agenda).

recedite

It seems that the Catalan people have been giving the wrong answers in the last couple of elections and referendums.
So Rajoy is asking the Catalan parliamentarians to take a 3 month holiday while the electorate is being re-educated, after which they can vote again.