Catalan independence referendum, 2017

josip

recedite wrote: »

It seems that the Catalan people have been giving the wrong answers in the last couple of elections and referendums.
So Rajoy is asking the Catalan parliamentarians to take a 3 month holiday while the electorate is being re-educated, after which they can vote again.

If it works for the EU...

Inquitus

recedite wrote: »

It seems that the Catalan people have been giving the wrong answers in the last couple of elections and referendums.
So Rajoy is asking the Catalan parliamentarians to take a 3 month holiday while the electorate is being re-educated, after which they can vote again.

80% of 42% of the electorate is not a majority and in fact it is widely held that the majority of Catalans would rather remain a part of Spain and protested by not voting.

Avatar MIA

Inquitus wrote: »

80% of 42% of the electorate is not a majority

I think you'll find it is, and referendums have been ratified on less than 42% turnout.

An Ciarraioch

Inquitus wrote: »

80% of 42% of the electorate is not a majority and in fact it is widely held that the majority of Catalans would rather remain a part of Spain and protested by not voting.

Unless the turnout at the next Catalan election is >=78%, then nationalists can claim a majority for now.

Inquitus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Unless the turnout at the next Catalan election is >=78%, then nationalists can claim a majority for now.

I agree, but I worked in Barcelona for a year and most of my colleagues there boycotted the earlier referendum as their way of protesting, so I don't have much faith in the last poll which had a degree of irregularities and didn't give a majority for independence.

feargale

Inquitus wrote: »

80% of 42% of the electorate is not a majority and in fact it is widely held that the majority of Catalans would rather remain a part of Spain and protested by not voting.

So, those who don't bother to turn out should trump those who do?

Avatar MIA

Inquitus wrote: »

so I don't have much faith in the last poll which had a degree of irregularities and didn't give a majority for independence.

Is there a meme I'm not aware of where being obtuse is a thing?

An Ciarraioch

Even the nationalists now appear unsure as to how to proceed, being almost evenly-divided between immediate UDI and fresh elections. Across the spectrum, voters believe that more autonomy will ultimately be granted to Catalonia (presumably similar to the Basque arrangement):

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599

Inquitus

feargale wrote: »

So, those who don't bother to turn out should trump those who do?

In a referendum that is not legal then yes.

Avatar MIA

Inquitus wrote: »

In a referendum that is not legal then yes.

That's an entirely different argument.

It's illegal in a dictatorship to have an election. Just because something is legal does not make it right.

Bishopsback

Ze sheet could be about to heet ze fan!

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2017/1021/914138-spain-catalonia/

recedite

Bishopsback wrote: »

Ze sheet could be about to heet ze fan!

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2017/1021/914138-spain-catalonia/

He is also requesting that all of Mr Puigdemont's government be stripped of their functions, which "in principle will be carried out by (national) ministers for the duration of this exceptional situation."
The national Senate will now have to agree to these unprecedented steps - a process that will take about a week.

Puigdemont will have to "man up" soon, or he'll find himself stripped of all powers and languishing in a prison cell.

An Ciarraioch

recedite wrote: »

Puigdemont will have to "man up" soon, or he'll find himself stripped of all powers and languishing in a prison cell.

Giving a press conference at 8 Irish time, so his intentions will be clearer then. All pointing to a UDI when the Catalan parliament meets in a few days.

recedite

Inquitus wrote: »

80% of 42% of the electorate is not a majority and in fact it is widely held that the majority of Catalans would rather remain a part of Spain and protested by not voting.

Inquitus wrote: »

I agree, but I worked in Barcelona for a year and most of my colleagues there boycotted the earlier referendum as their way of protesting, so I don't have much faith in the last poll which had a degree of irregularities and didn't give a majority for independence.

You're a great fella for presenting unsubstantiated anecdotes instead of the facts.
The polls indicate you are wrong on both whether people wanted to vote, and whether they would vote for independence. See the polls for
"On the independence issue"
and..
"On whether a referendum should be held".

Inquitus

recedite wrote: »

You're a great fella for presenting unsubstantiated anecdotes instead of the facts.
The polls indicate you are wrong on both whether people wanted to vote, and whether they would vote for independence. See the polls for
"On the independence issue"
and..
"On whether a referendum should be held".

Some opinion polls prior to the referendum indicated a majority would rather remain part of Spain, they also indicate those against independence would not vote as per your link, so how can you credit an illegal referendum in which those who are against independence had decided not to vote?

http://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-independence-spain-support-for-drops-poll/

josip

Inquitus wrote: »

Some opinion polls prior to the referendum indicated a majority would rather remain part of Spain, they also indicate those against independence would not vote as per your link, so how can you credit an illegal referendum in which those who are against independence had decided not to vote?

http://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-independence-spain-support-for-drops-poll/

Are you giving more credence to the opinion polls than the referendum?

Avatar MIA

Inquitus wrote: »

Some opinion polls

Who was running the opinion polls? And if it's likely to be rejected why not let them have a binding referendum?

recedite

Inquitus wrote: »

Some opinion polls..

Not even a majority of opinion polls :pac:
And you think citing one or two of your preferred opinion polls provides a more legitimate mandate than an actual referendum?

Inquitus

recedite wrote: »

Not even a majority of opinion polls :pac:
And you think citing one or two of your preferred opinion polls provides a more legitimate mandate than an actual referendum?

It wasn't an actual referendum, it was an illegal vote boycotted by those who do not want to secede.

josip

Inquitus wrote: »

It wasn't an actual referendum, it was an illegal vote boycotted by those who do not want to secede.

Are you giving more credence to the opinion polls than the referendum?

Inquitus

josip wrote: »

Are you giving more credence to the opinion polls than the referendum?

I give little credence to either.

josip

Inquitus wrote: »

Some opinion polls prior to the referendum indicated a majority would rather remain part of Spain, they also indicate those against independence would not vote as per your link, so how can you credit an illegal referendum in which those who are against independence had decided not to vote?

Inquitus wrote: »

I give little credence to either.

Are you giving more credence to the opinion polls than the referendum?

Brendan Bendar

josip wrote: »

Are you giving more credence to the opinion polls than the referendum?

Hopefully he is giving no credence to the referendum- unsupervised unregulated.

josip

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Hopefully he is giving no credence to the referendum- unsupervised unregulated.

I didn't ask him that.
I asked if he is giving more credence to the opinion polls than the referendum?

Inquitus

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Hopefully he is giving no credence to the referendum- unsupervised unregulated.

Aye the referendum was a shambles, at least the opinion polls tried to be impartial, and had the involvement of all sides of the debate, something the referendum did not.

As Brendan says it was unsupervised and unregulated, and gives no mandate at all for declaring independence, if it had given a result where a majority of registered voters had voted for independence then at least they could cite that as some sort of grounds for declaring independence, as it stands it was a onesided illegal vote in which only one side of the debate engaged.

josip

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye the referendum was a shambles, at least the opinion polls tried to be impartial, and had the involvement of all sides of the debate, something the referendum did not.

As Brendan says it was unsupervised and unregulated, and gives no mandate at all for declaring independence, if it had given a result where a majority of registered voters had voted for independence then at least they could cite that as some sort of grounds for declaring independence, as it stands it was a onesided illegal vote in which only one side of the debate engaged.

Does the above mean you are giving more credence to the opinion polls than the referendum?

An Ciarraioch

Puigdemont coming across like John Redmond in that press conference - only one session of the Catalan Parliament remaining, so "debating the consequences of 155" won't accomplish anything. Of course, that could mean an independence vote, but little point in being coy about that now.

An Ciarraioch

The session will be on Friday - presumably to coincide with the Senate session:

http://www.eldiario.es

v638sg7k1a92bx

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Puigdemont coming across like John Redmond in that press conference - only one session of the Catalan Parliament remaining, so "debating the consequences of 155" won't accomplish anything. Of course, that could mean an independence vote, but little point in being coy about that now.

It's a minority government in Catalonia so they may not get a majority in their own regional parliament.

The whole thing is a nonsense, judging by the reportage, comments around rights to self determination you'd be forgiven for being led to believe that this was Israel/Palestine.

The democratic majority of people both in Catalonia and Spain want to remain part of Spain, this is the underlying issue which separatists continue to ignore.

v638sg7k1a92bx

josip wrote: »

Does the above mean you are giving more credence to the opinion polls than the referendum?

Let it go. Neither are legally binding.