Catalan independence referendum, 2017

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An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Perhaps Puigdemont wouldn't have been in a position to write op-eds, had he been arrested, which might be one mitigating factor:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/06/carles-puigdemont-catalonia-democracy-spain-catalans

Acting in an arbitrary, undemocratic, and in my view, unlawful manner, the Spanish state decided to dissolve the Catalan parliament in the middle of the legislative term, to dismiss the president and the Catalan government, to intervene in our self-government and the institutions that the Catalans have been building in our nation for centuries. It committed a brutal judicial offensive to bring about the mass imprisonment and criminalisation of candidates promoting political ideas that, just two years ago, obtained historically high levels of public support.

Puigdemont wants to be referee while simultaneously refusing to play by the rules.

The only one acting in an arbitrary and undemocratic manner was Puigdemont when he broke his own Parliamentary rules because he couldn't get the required majority so decides to declare a majority anyway, does the exact same thing with the UDI. His "referendum" and UDI were intended as a provocation and drew a dramatic response and now he cries foul that his attempted coup has failed.

recedite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Perhaps Puigdemont wouldn't have been in a position to write op-eds, had he been arrested, which might be one mitigating factor:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/06/carles-puigdemont-catalonia-democracy-spain-catalans

In fairness to the guy he has also succeeded in expanding the issue beyond the borders of Spain, which is what Juncker and co. were desperate to avoid. The EC were adamant all along that this was an internal Spanish matter, but once that EU arrest warrant was issued, that particular fiction crumbled away.

When Puigdemont walked into a Belgian police station to hand himself in, the last thing that the Belgians or the EC wanted was to have the media reporting that he was being held in a cell in Brussels. So now we find he has been chucked out of the police station like a hot potato.

Overall though, I still think he wimped out on Catalonia's big moment. Whenever he sees a choice between playing the role of victim, or that of the victor, he will choose to be the victim every time.

Now he must play the role of oppressed and exiled opposition leader, trying to campaign for an election called by Rajoy, for a new parliament whose powers Rajoy can choose to limit.
He had a chance to be the first President of the Catalan Republic.

recedite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

...but like Dev's US fundraising trip, it would have required a collective go-ahead, presumably.

Perhaps Puigedemont could try to make a few quid selling bonds in Brussels :pac:
But hopefully he would pass on more than 40% of the money, unlike Devs fundraising effort.

However, 60 percent of this money was left in various banks in New York. Nobody has been able to explain why Eamon deValera ordered the bulk of the money to be left in New York when he returned to Ireland in late 1920.

It seems the Irish Press was still a nice little earner for the family into relatively recent times.

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recedite wrote: »

In fairness to the guy he has also succeeded in expanding the issue beyond the borders of Spain, which is what Juncker and co. were desperate to avoid. The EC were adamant all along that this was an internal Spanish matter, but once that EU arrest warrant was issued, that particular fiction crumbled away.

When Puigdemont walked into a Belgian police station to hand himself in, the last thing that the Belgians or the EC wanted was to have the media reporting that he was being held in a cell in Brussels. So now we find he has been chucked out of the police station like a hot potato.

Overall though, I still think he wimped out on Catalonia's big moment. Whenever he sees a choice between playing the role of victim, or that of the victor, he will choose to be the victim every time.

Now he must play the role of oppressed and exiled opposition leader, trying to campaign for an election called by Rajoy, for a new parliament whose powers Rajoy can choose to limit.
He had a chance to be the first President of the Catalan Republic.

I always said the the best chance Catalonia had for independence was that people outside Spain remained ignorant of the facts. Since Catalonia has received so much international attention more people outside of Spain became aware of what the real situation was as opposed to all the online hype and phoney outrage. This failed coup has been exposed for what it was.

An Ciarraioch

750,000 on the streets of Barcelona today, calling for the release of the political prisoners.

marienbad

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

750,000 on the streets of Barcelona today, calling for the release of the political prisoners.

Political prisoners ?

A Dub in Glasgo

marienbad wrote: »

Political prisoners ?

Yes, prisoners because of their politics

CroFag

There were these Catalan nationalists with a stand in front of the GPO in Dublin, asking for petition to release "political" prisoners...so manipulating.

marienbad

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Yes, prisoners because of their politics

I think not , the Spanish Judiciary believe they have a case to answer .

An Ciarraioch

Ada Colau's Barcelona en Comú has ended its pact with local Socialists due to the latter's endorsement of Article 155 - it certainly suggests that unionists in the Generalitat wouldn't secure Podemos support:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171112/432834000520/colau-rompe-pacto-gobierno-psc-barcelona.html

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A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Yes, prisoners because of their politics

No, in prison awaiting trial for breaking the law.

Samaris

I'm glad this situation is at least calming down. It's not 'normality' yet for people living there, but one way or another, an abrupt seccession would have done neither Catalonia nor Spain any good. And it was too divided. While a country should not be ruled against its will, nor should a region be abruptly removed from its nation against the will of the people. And there just wasn't sufficient enough proof of that will to justify a unilateral declaration of independance.

I don't agree with Spain's actions, and I reckon Rajoy was a good deal to blame for the whole situation rising in the first place. That and Brexit should really be a neon sign for world leaders - do not set up divisions if you don't want a divided society. No ****. Rajoy appears to have spent several years playing up the 'Catalan question' to distract from other things (presumably the financial crisis)*. The British media and politicians played up that any issue was the fault of the EU and lied about it enough that even the generation in power don't really seem to know what it is. It came back to bite pretty hard in both cases.




*Source- aggravated Catalan pissed off with both sides, so take it or leave it!

An Ciarraioch

Samaris wrote: »

I'm glad this situation is at least calming down. It's not 'normality' yet for people living there, but one way or another, an abrupt seccession would have done neither Catalonia nor Spain any good. And it was too divided. While a country should not be ruled against its will, nor should a region be abruptly removed from its nation against the will of the people. And there just wasn't sufficient enough proof of that will to justify a unilateral declaration of independance.

I don't agree with Spain's actions, and I reckon Rajoy was a good deal to blame for the whole situation rising in the first place. That and Brexit should really be a neon sign for world leaders - do not set up divisions if you don't want a divided society. No ****. Rajoy appears to have spent several years playing up the 'Catalan question' to distract from other things (presumably the financial crisis)*. The British media and politicians played up that any issue was the fault of the EU and lied about it enough that even the generation in power don't really seem to know what it is. It came back to bite pretty hard in both cases.




*Source- aggravated Catalan pissed off with both sides, so take it or leave it!

Indeed - weren't there reports last week about Rajoy having secret accounts (the Barcenas affair) that were swiftly swamped by the ongoing saga?

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An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Indeed - weren't there reports last week about Rajoy having secret accounts (the Barcenas affair) that were swiftly swamped by the ongoing saga?

Indeed - the entire political class in Spain has major problems with corruption that would make Charles Haughey out to be an altar boy stealing from the collection basket, but in this instance it is the political class in Catalonia that are currently up to their neck in potential fraud and corruption charges especially when Andorra (geographically very close to Catalonia) lifts its banking secrecy from 1st January which is only a few months away and we might get an insight to where the famous "3%" will show up...

bertie 56

Pretty poor objective coverage of the Catalonia crisis from the Irish Times :
2 big articles about unionist demonstrations , NONE about the independentist huge one of two days ago ( between 750.000 to 1.6 Million in Barcelona )
I was hoping more objectivity from the Irish Times, to be honest....

An Ciarraioch

bertie 56 wrote: »

Pretty poor objective coverage of the Catalonia crisis from the Irish Times :
2 big articles about unionist demonstrations , NONE about the independentist huge one of two days ago ( between 750.000 to 1.6 Million in Barcelona )
I was hoping more objectivity from the Irish Times, to be honest....

Much the same in the Irish Examiner - a big spread two weeks ago, whereas on Monday, they only mentioned Rajoy's address to the local PP branch!

Brendan Bendar

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Much the same in the Irish Examiner - a big spread two weeks ago, whereas on Monday, they only mentioned Rajoy's address to the local PP branch!

Seems to be a lot of doubt about the actual numbers at the pro indep. demos.

Spoke to a friend in Bcn who insists nowhere near the numbers quoted.

Very difficult to tell. Maybe she is to quote the mantra of the left ‘telling lies’

Who knows.

An Ciarraioch

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Seems to be a lot of doubt about the actual numbers at the pro indep. demos.

Spoke to a friend in Bcn who insists nowhere near the numbers quoted.

Very difficult to tell. Maybe she is to quote the mantra of the left ‘telling lies’

Who knows.

The first figure was the Barcelona police estimate - generally, the city has been run by left-wing parties (previously Socialists and now Podemos), so unlike the Mossos, wouldn't be regarded as nationalists.

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bertie 56 wrote: »

Pretty poor objective coverage of the Catalonia crisis from the Irish Times :
2 big articles about unionist demonstrations , NONE about the independentist huge one of two days ago ( between 750.000 to 1.6 Million in Barcelona )
I was hoping more objectivity from the Irish Times, to be honest....

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Much the same in the Irish Examiner - a big spread two weeks ago, whereas on Monday, they only mentioned Rajoy's address to the local PP branch!

The independence movement has has lost it's newsworthiness and has been exposed for the failed coup that it was. Last month you'd be forgiven for thinking this was the human rights struggle of our time based on how events were being reported.

The movement has lost. It was badly managed, badly led and now it has been out-manoeuvred. The leadership overplayed their hand and forced Madrid into a position where it cannot be seen to be negotiating and they've forced actual countries within the larger EU project to pick sides at a time when Brexit means national governments can only afford to declare loyalty to the other member states.

The coming elections will finish the movement off.

bertie 56

" The coming elections will finish the movement off. "

I don't think it will, to be honest .It's just the continuation of a 30 years fight .
But it won't change much, even if the pro-inde get the majority .
That will be 155 again, as Spain warned .
The only hope I can see is if PSOE is in power nationally in the next elections : they are more prone to negotiate and change things that PP.
Second scenario : Puigdemont is put in jail, massive civil movement ( which I doubt ), Spain send the tanks ( which I don't hope ! ) , and EU/ the international community put his nose in the conflict.

The key of all this is the Spanish constitution : without changes there, Catalonia will go nowhere close to the " legal " independence.

An Ciarraioch

bertie 56 wrote: »

" The coming elections will finish the movement off. "

I don't think it will, to be honest .It's just the continuation of a 30 years fight .
But it won't change much, even if the pro-inde get the majority .
That will be 155 again, as Spain warned .
The only hope I can see is if PSOE is in power nationally in the next elections : they are more prone to negotiate and change things that PP.
Second scenario : Puigdemont is put in jail, massive civil movement ( which I doubt ), Spain send the tanks ( which I don't hope ! ) , and EU/ the international community put his nose in the conflict.

The key of all this is the Spanish constitution : without changes there, Catalonia will go nowhere close to the " legal " independence.

Judging by recent polls, the stalemate will continue - the pro-independence parties would retain their position in Catalonia, and the PP would remain the largest national party. Furthermore, Ciudadanos, who if anything are even less inclined towards constitutional change, are taking support from Rajoy in the rest of Spain, though largely unchanged in their home region.

An Ciarraioch

That said, remains to be seen how long the PP can manage to remain in power:

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-11-15/ordenadores-barcenas-procesamiento-pp-tesorera_1478002/

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bertie 56 wrote: »

" The coming elections will finish the movement off. "

I don't think it will, to be honest .It's just the continuation of a 30 years fight .
But it won't change much, even if the pro-inde get the majority .
That will be 155 again, as Spain warned .
The only hope I can see is if PSOE is in power nationally in the next elections : they are more prone to negotiate and change things that PP.
Second scenario : Puigdemont is put in jail, massive civil movement ( which I doubt ), Spain send the tanks ( which I don't hope ! ) , and EU/ the international community put his nose in the conflict.

The key of all this is the Spanish constitution : without changes there, Catalonia will go nowhere close to the " legal " independence.

There is no 30 year fight. This is a man made nationalist movement, an ideological architecture forcing the Catalan language into every walk of life and instilling a Catalan ideology that never previously existed.

You're correct that this ultimately comes down to the Spanish constitution which 90% of the people of Catalonia voted in favour of.

An Ciarraioch

Celia Late Troop wrote: »

There is no 30 year fight. This is a man made nationalist movement, an ideological architecture forcing the Catalan language into every walk of life and instilling a Catalan ideology that never previously existed.

You're correct that this ultimately comes down to the Spanish constitution which 90% of the people of Catalonia voted in favour of.

As long as democratic elections have been held in Spain, there has been some form of Catalan-only party - Esquerra date back to the Thirties, and before that, parties such as Estat Catala and Lliga Regionalista existed, so this is just the latest incarnation of an ongoing cycle.

An Ciarraioch

Slightly confusing article - on the one hand, it seems Junqueras is saying Esquerra would vote for Puigdemont to remain President after the election, yet on the other hand, Rovira has been nominated for the role - presumably she will direct the party while her leader is in jail.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171115/432901168614/oriol-junqueras-tejer-complicidades-comuns-carta-carcel.html

recedite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Slightly confusing article - on the one hand, it seems Junqueras is saying Esquerra would vote for Puigdemont to remain President after the election, yet on the other hand, Rovira has been nominated for the role - presumably she will direct the party while her leader is in jail.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171115/432901168614/oriol-junqueras-tejer-complicidades-comuns-carta-carcel.html

Like the rest of them, he is rambling and indecisive. But I think he saying that Puigedemont is still their legitimate President, and the coming elections will be fought on that basis. But after the results are announced a new Generalitat will be formed (and he is assuming that Rajoy will allow that to go ahead)
In that scenario, he is saying he prefers Marta Rovira to be the new President. Presumably she would go up against Puigedemont. All the newly elected members of the new parliament would get to vote on the matter.

But, if the pro-independence side no longer have a majority at that stage, neither of these two will get the job. Instead the unionist side will control the govt. and they will put forward their own preferred candidate.

I think this shows that cracks are appearing among the old govt. members. Cracks between those that stayed behind and are languishing in jail, like this guy Junqueras the vice-president, and those that ran off to Brussels like Puigedmont. They will all put on a united front for the campaign, but after that the knives will come out.

In general, I don't think any of them has what it takes. If they had, they wouldn't even be contesting Rajoy's election. They would be governing an independent republic right now.

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recedite wrote: »

Like the rest of them, he is rambling and indecisive. But I think he saying that Puigedemont is still their legitimate President, and the coming elections will be fought on that basis. But after the results are announced a new Generalitat will be formed (and he is assuming that Rajoy will allow that to go ahead)
In that scenario, he is saying he prefers Marta Rovira to be the new President. Presumably she would go up against Puigedemont. All the newly elected members of the new parliament would get to vote on the matter.

But, if the pro-independence side no longer have a majority at that stage, neither of these two will get the job. Instead the unionist side will control the govt. and they will put forward their own preferred candidate.

I think this shows that cracks are appearing among the old govt. members. Cracks between those that stayed behind and are languishing in jail, like this guy Junqueras the vice-president, and those that ran off to Brussels like Puigedmont. They will all put on a united front for the campaign, but after that the knives will come out.

In general, I don't think any of them has what it takes. If they had, they wouldn't even be contesting Rajoy's election. They would be governing an independent republic right now.

Where would they govern this independent republic from, what currency would they be using, what recognition would they have, what finances would they use to run public services.

I think you need to climb out of whatever romantic novel you're reading.

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Look, Shane Ross proposes drink driving bill to pass through the Dail https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2017/1115/920178-drink-driving/

Or he could do what they did in Catalonia declare a majority and pass the bill anyway.

Any of this getting through yet?

recedite

Celia Late Troop wrote: »

Where would they govern this independent republic from, what currency would they be using, what recognition would they have, what finances would they use to run public services.

Barcelona, the Euro or a Catalan euro pegged to the euro, little or none at first, and tax revenues.

On this last point, If Madrid cut off funding during the transitional period, they could instruct Catalan residents to redirect all tax revenues to Barcelona.

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recedite wrote: »

Barcelona, the Euro or a Catalan euro pegged to the euro, little or none at first, and tax revenues.

On this last point, If Madrid cut off funding during the transitional period, they could instruct Catalan residents to redirect all tax revenues to Barcelona.

That would be akin the Independent Alliance declaring independence and telling Irish residents to redirect all their taxes to them. Fantasy.