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Catalan independence referendum, 2017
Comments
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Interestingly, despite the clear C's surge, unionists are only about 5 seats up on 2015, largely due to the PP's collapse.
Puigdemont by far the most popular choice for President, so assuming the pro-indy majority remains, expect him to return in the New Year:
http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/tercer-sondeo-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html0 -
For stats nerds like myself, the database below gives the number of Catalans abroad, with over 1,100 currently resident in Ireland:
https://www.idescat.cat/phre/?b=1&res=a&nac=d1130 -
An Ciarraioch wrote: »For stats nerds like myself, the database below gives the number of Catalans abroad, with over 1,100 currently resident in Ireland:
https://www.idescat.cat/phre/?b=1&res=a&nac=d113
That makes 210.000 Catalans of the age of voting around the world ( over 19 in reality )
And 776 in Ireland, of the age of voting ( over 19 in reality )
The count is not totally exact, though, for two reasons :
- one minor is we don't have the count of people who are between 18 and 19 . So these "voters" are not included in the total .
- All Catalans are not registered in the embassy ( I know some personally ). But hard to tell the precise number.
Anyway, that is a lot of people , and a lot of lost voices if they can't vote ! ...
What surprise me is the amount of children in Ireland ( 20% are under 9 years old ).
In Catalonia itself, they represent only 10 % of the total population.
( I see already some worries growing in some heads : " And if they ask to be educated in Catalan, what ? ):D:D
https://www.idescat.cat/pub/?id=aec&n=253&lang=en0 -
A big mess for nothing...
According to the Mercantile Registry figures , it is not 2 or 3000 companies that have left Catalonia, but merely 300 of them.
It is true that the companies have 3 months to finish the process. Still, during this time, they haven't move !
" THE ECONOMICS OF THE INDEPENDENCE PROCESS
Only 12% of companies have completed the transfer of their headquarters
Although almost 3,000 had begun the process, as of the end of November, only 332 companies had actually completed it."
https://www.ara.cat/en/Only-of-companies-completed-headquarters_0_1925207664.html0 -
On a lighter mode , and to give a praise to the Catalan people for their ingenuity and non violent ways :
Here is one policeman who's job is to take off all yellow parts from a public Christmas tree . ( yellow being a banned color in Catalonia nowadays , since it is the symbol of the political prisoners ) .
No problem . Solution found ... ( translation is : " Here there was a yellow ribbon" ):D
Clever, non-violent and, in a way , a bit funny...
( Could be more funny again if Spain and Catalonia weren't at level 4 on 5 on the current terrorist threat alert... ) :rolleyes:0 -
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The vote has started yesterday morning for the Catalan people living abroad.
As warned , some irregularities are already spotted.
All around the world, the necessary papers to vote hasn't reach yet the voters.
It is the case here in Ireland with few friends , despite them being fully registered in the embassy.
They don't even have the possibility to go to the embassy to vote, it will be useless without the papers...:eek:
We know that around 70% of the voters are of independentists ideas, and count for around 3,5 % of the total voters ( 200.000 voters !!! )
The papers come from the Spain embassies, which mean the central Government.:rolleyes:
In an election like this one, so important for the future of Catalonia, and with a so tight estimation, that is pretty worrying.
As worrying, the " lucky " ones that will be able to vote are not sure that their vote will be counted properly.
According to this article, it seems like the way it works, there is plenty of time and ways to alter the content of the ballot boxes, before they reach the counting place.
http://catalannews.com/politics/item/catalans-overseas-move-to-ensure-their-votes-are-counted
Knowing the corruption level of Spain, and the corruption stories of the company that will count the votes ( see https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105539513&postcount=1475 ) , and knowing that international observers has been banned , we can hardly talk about " a full democratic election " .:mad:
A good article about ballot fraud in the Catalan elections can be found here :
http://gentiumlaw.com/news/ballot-fraud-catalan-elections-happen/
It comes from Englishman Matthew Parish , ex UN peacemaker, international lawyer based in Geneva .
His conclusions are :
" The international community must watch the elections on 21 December 2017. The people of Catalonia need to watch those elections as well. There are sufficient grounds for concern. Madrid has effectively annexed Catalonia and abolished its regional government. Therefore Madrid is responsible for the conduct of the Catalan elections.
There are reasons to be concerned that those elections may not be entirely free and fair. To the extent that they are not, the participation of Indra Systems indicates that any irregularities may lean in favour of Partido Popular and its proxy parties. Everyone must be vigilant. Everyone must vote, no matter how arduous or inconvenient. Rule of law and democracy go hand in hand. If one is jeopardised, then the other will surely suffer the same fate."
More like the corruption of indepes who have shown that they are will to disregard their own democratic institutions at every opportunity by breaking the rules of their own statutes of autonomy and passing illegal parliamentary bills which is why almost half of the deputies walked out in protest. Their attempted coup failed when they tried to impose their nationalist ideology on the majority of the citizens of Catalonia who don't want independence.
As for international observers, they have to be invited just like in other countries. However in the illegitimate referendum on Oct 1st, the Generalitat invited their own international observers including Sinn Fein who didn't find it bizarre that pro independence supporters took custody of the ballot boxes, slept in the polling stations, had no census, no voter list and no legal oversight.0 -
In an heavier mode now, some legal information about how the independence could be done legally.
This document has been written by Joan Vintró, Professor of Constitutional Law at University of Barcelona
It has been written prior to the regional elections of 2012 .
" LEGALITY AND THE REFERENDUM ON INDEPENDENCE IN CATALONIA
http://idpbarcelona.net/docs/blog/legality_referendum.pdf0 -
On a lighter mode , and to give a praise to the Catalan people for their ingenuity and non violent ways :
Here is one policeman who's job is to take off all yellow parts from a public Christmas tree . ( yellow being a banned color in Catalonia nowadays , since it is the symbol of the political prisoners ) .
No problem . Solution found ... ( translation is : " Here there was a yellow ribbon" ):D
Clever, non-violent and, in a way , a bit funny...
( Could be more funny again if Spain and Catalonia weren't at level 4 on 5 on the current terrorist threat alert... ) :rolleyes:
The colour yellow was banned from being used on public monuments and public places by the electoral council which is a state body which oversees elections. The reasons is because Approx. 20 public monuments were turned yellow in and around 15 November for the politicians who are currently in prison. As public buildings and monuments belong to ALL people in Catalonia, not just the minority who favour independence, the election council ruled that by allowing the public buildings and monuments to be turned yellow as a sign of support for one politician persuasion is akin to supporting that political opinion. This would be similar to Irish monuments and public buildings being coloured or light up with pro life/choice colours in the run up to the referendum or pro life/choice advocates going into public buildings and hanging their ribbons on the Christmas trees in public buildings. Once again indepes have no regard for the rule of law and try to play the victim and @bertie_56 being totally diengenious and misrepresenting the facts.0 -
In an heavier mode now, some legal information about how the independence could be done legally.
This document has been written by Joan Vintró, Professor of Constitutional Law at University of Barcelona
It has been written prior to the regional elections of 2012 .
" LEGALITY AND THE REFERENDUM ON INDEPENDENCE IN CATALONIA
http://idpbarcelona.net/docs/blog/legality_referendum.pdf
Thank you for posting this as you've just shot yourself in the foot and highlighted what I've been saying since I started posting on this thread and the reason why the current independence movement is a fraud. As I have said numerous times and which a Joan Vintro professor of constitutional law at Unibersity of Barcelona has stated in the article which you provided.As explained above, it is clear that the call for a referendum on the collective future of Catalonia linked to the beginning of a constitutional amendment is possible within the constitutional framework and the law.
http://idpbarcelona.net/docs/blog/legality_referendum.pdf0 -
( see https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105539513&postcount=1475 ) , and knowing that international observers has been banned , we can hardly talk about " a full democratic election " .:mad:
A good article about ballot fraud in the Catalan elections can be found here :
http://gentiumlaw.com/news/ballot-fraud-catalan-elections-happen/
It comes from Englishman Matthew Parish , ex UN peacemaker, international lawyer based in Geneva .
His conclusions are :
" The international community must watch the elections on 21 December 2017. The people of Catalonia need to watch those elections as well. There are sufficient grounds for concern. Madrid has effectively annexed Catalonia and abolished its regional government. Therefore Madrid is responsible for the conduct of the Catalan elections.
There are reasons to be concerned that those elections may not be entirely free and fair. To the extent that they are not, the participation of Indra Systems indicates that any irregularities may lean in favour of Partido Popular and its proxy parties. Everyone must be vigilant. Everyone must vote, no matter how arduous or inconvenient. Rule of law and democracy go hand in hand. If one is jeopardised, then the other will surely suffer the same fate."
Does nobody else see the hypocrisy in this post? It was the indepes on Oct 1st that committed gross ballot fraud when it was the independence volunteers who ordered the ballot boxes online from Alibaba, hid the ballot boxes in their homes, had no voter list, no census and in some constituencies more people voted than there were people who lived there, we also had pictures of the same people voting multiple times!
Once again the indepes want to have everything both ways, they cry foul at any perceived slight injustice but have no problem breaking the rules when it suits them.0 -
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Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,193 CMod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 37021
Bertie 56 & Tickers. Cut out the low quality posting (including dumping images) and snide personal digs. There have already been mod warnings about this.The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.
Leviticus 19:34
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A couple of more information about the ban of the yellow in Catalonia.
Yes, the ban is the fact of the Central Electoral Board , from Madrid. I said it already in some previous posts. No " misleading" here ...
I don't have to say that this board is defending Madrid interests .
I don't have to say neither that the Mossos d'Esquadra are under the orders of Madrid, since the 155 article , with the sacked and judicial problems of their former chief Josep Lluís Trapero . So no choice really , they have to follow Madrid's orders...
It is necessary to note as well that the apparition of yellow ribbons , banners, etc is not the fact of one political party . It is primary the action of the citizens ( plenty of pictures of Catalonia streets about that, and abroad too ! ) . " Comities of support " are the citizens initiative . And yes, this action has the support of a group of political parties too . Four out of the seven important parties in Catalonia are backing up this .
I wouldn't defend a banner saying " Vote CUP " on a City Council. But it is not what is written . What is written goes over the barriers between the political parties ( from lefties to liberal , from independentists to federalists )
And on a moral side, yes, it is abnormal to have political prisoners in a election in Europe now.
It's not me who says that .
Iceta ( PSC - unionists ) said that , yes, the elections are not " normal " ones because of that .
And it is completely normal that the concern citizens and a majority of political parties are showing , in a non violent way, their opposition to that anti-democratic situation .
Saying nothing is accepting the situation .
Close to that , C's with their millions are spreading all over the " plazas " of the Catalonia towns ( which are public places ) , with their orange inflatable tents , but this seems OK for the Electoral Board .
Other places have a Spanish flag at the base of the Christmas tree, and that is OK .( it is actually a bit sad, a Christmas tree without yellow at all ! )
Everybody who knows a bit of Spain will say that this is not surprising.
Sadly, this double standard way of dealing with this kind of things is common in Spain0 -
Today's National poll:
Pro-indy: 66-71 seats
Unionists: 57-61
Podemos: 8-90 -
A couple of more information about the ban of the yellow in Catalonia.
Yes, the ban is the fact of the Central Electoral Board , from Madrid. I said it already in some previous posts. No " misleading" here ...
I don't have to say that this board is defending Madrid interests .
I don't have to say neither that the Mossos d'Esquadra are under the orders of Madrid, since the 155 article , with the sacked and judicial problems of their former chief Josep Lluís Trapero . So no choice really , they have to follow Madrid's orders...
It is necessary to note as well that the apparition of yellow ribbons , banners, etc is not the fact of one political party . It is primary the action of the citizens ( plenty of pictures of Catalonia streets about that, and abroad too ! ) . " Comities of support " are the citizens initiative . And yes, this action has the support of a group of political parties too . Four out of the seven important parties in Catalonia are backing up this .
I wouldn't defend a banner saying " Vote CUP " on a City Council. But it is not what is written . What is written goes over the barriers between the political parties ( from lefties to liberal , from independentists to federalists )
And on a moral side, yes, it is abnormal to have political prisoners in a election in Europe now.
It's not me who says that .
Iceta ( PSC - unionists ) said that , yes, the elections are not " normal " ones because of that .
And it is completely normal that the concern citizens and a majority of political parties are showing , in a non violent way, their opposition to that anti-democratic situation .
Saying nothing is accepting the situation .
Close to that , C's with their millions are spreading all over the " plazas " of the Catalonia towns ( which are public places ) , with their orange inflatable tents , but this seems OK for the Electoral Board .
Other places have a Spanish flag at the base of the Christmas tree, and that is OK .( it is actually a bit sad, a Christmas tree without yellow at all ! )
Everybody who knows a bit of Spain will say that this is not surprising.
Sadly, this double standard way of dealing with this kind of things is common in Spain
The Spanish national flag is the internationally recognised flag of Spain which also includes Catalonia regardless of whether you like that fact or not. The yellow ribbon is a political symbol that has been adopted by a number of political parties. It is not the same thing. Plenty of people are flying the Catalan flag why should others not be allowed to fly the Spanish flag. I'm sorry but none of your arguments stand up to scrutiny.
It appears that the independence movement is making excuses in advance of not getting the required parliamentary seats to push through their reforms so they are crying foul in advance.0 -
In an heavier mode now, some legal information about how the independence could be done legally.
This document has been written by Joan Vintró, Professor of Constitutional Law at University of Barcelona
It has been written prior to the regional elections of 2012 .
" LEGALITY AND THE REFERENDUM ON INDEPENDENCE IN CATALONIA
http://idpbarcelona.net/docs/blog/legality_referendum.pdf
This text has to be read quietly , with taking everything in account.
As said before, the reality is a bit more complicate than " having 2/3 of majority in the Catalonia Parliament " . I don't see the need for a Professor in Law to write 3 pages ( and this is the resume ! ) if the answer of all this would have been " 2/3 " in two lines ... :rolleyes:
Anyway ...
The third option that the document talked about has been put in place in 2014, which was a non-binding referendum , about self -determination.
A Consultation Law is voted , at 106-for, 28-against, to organize the non-binding referendum . ( ( That is more than 2/3, by the way ).
One week after, a decree . Blocked by Spain .
This referendum has been declared " unconstitutional " by the Constitutional Court of Spain . That mean " null " by Spanish Laws, not Catalan Laws.
A month after, The Spanish Congress blocked the right to Catalonia to organize another referendum . Spanish blockage again.
( By the way, it is important to say that this referendum was organized in a proper way, no police beating voters this time . Results were 80% for the creation of an independent state . The boycott of the unionists made a weak turnout of 43% .)
Another example, the " Declaració de sobirania i del dret a decidir del poble de Catalunya " ( declaration of sovereignty and rights of the Catalan people to decide " , in January 2013 .Results were 85 -for , 41-against . More than 2/3 once again .
Suspended by the Constitutional Court of Spain. Spanish blockage once again.
It's what I said from the beginning : whatever side you take the problem, whatever majority is on the Catalonia Parliament, the blockage come from Spain. 2/3 or not...
It is Joan Vintró conclusion too .
Yes, there is legal ways, but not reachable for Catalonia only .
Even with 100% independentists in the Parliament and 100% independentists in the street.
That is the key there.
IAnother solution would be convincing the King, the central Governement and half of Spain to take their political card with CUP( left independentist) .
Yep, legal all right !
PS : I could have talk as well about " why the 2017 referendum is declared illegal by Spain " : 2/3 in Catalonia Parliament ??? or Spanish Constitution blockage ???0 -
Esquerra are notably higher in today's El Periodico poll, jumping 4 seats to 36-37, though the bloc totals vary little:
Pro-independence: 67-70
Unionist: 55-58
Podemos: 10-11
Notably, the PP are down to 4-5, so running aground on the high C's!
http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/cuarto-sondeo-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html0 -
Not a bright future for the PP Spanish Prime Minister ...
“That is the concept of corruption in its purest form.”
Manuel Morocho, chief inspector of Spain’s Unit of Economic and Financial Crimes (UDEF), claims the People’s Party (PP) acted as a “criminal organisation” in accepting payments from a slush fund.
He also claims there is “circumstantial” evidence to link Mr Rajoy to the criminal activity.
The corruption scandal has been ongoing for months after Mr Rajoy achieved the dubious accolade of being the first sitting Prime Minister to testify as a witness in a criminal trial.
The PP allegedly used a parallel system of accounts to siphon bribes into party funds through “box B”, handled by former party treasurer Luís Barcenas, among others.
Former PP treasurer Mr Barcenas has admitted he regularly handed over envelopes of black money to politicians from his party.
Full article is here, from express.co.uk
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/877529/Mariano-Rajoy-corruption-Peoples-Party-Spain-Luis-Barcenas-finance
More interesting even, a prosecutor accused PP high member of receiving 120.000 € from INDRA .
INDRA is the private company who has been chosen ( irregularly without a company contest) to count the next Catalonia elections votes. ( Thanks to 155 )
(article from 2015 )
https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/04/29/actualidad/1430310345_047314.amp.html
No need of "excuses " in case of weak score of the independentist side , there is already proves...
( by the way, still no papers to vote in Ireland , from my friends... )0 -
This text has to be read quietly , with taking everything in account.
As said before, the reality is a bit more complicate than " having 2/3 of majority in the Catalonia Parliament " . I don't see the need for a Professor in Law to write 3 pages ( and this is the resume ! ) if the answer of all this would have been " 2/3 " in two lines ... :rolleyes:
Anyway ...
The third option that the document talked about has been put in place in 2014, which was a non-binding referendum , about self -determination.
A Consultation Law is voted , at 106-for, 28-against, to organize the non-binding referendum . ( ( That is more than 2/3, by the way ).
One week after, a decree . Blocked by Spain .
This referendum has been declared " unconstitutional " by the Constitutional Court of Spain . That mean " null " by Spanish Laws, not Catalan Laws.
A month after, The Spanish Congress blocked the right to Catalonia to organize another referendum . Spanish blockage again.
( By the way, it is important to say that this referendum was organized in a proper way, no police beating voters this time . Results were 80% for the creation of an independent state . The boycott of the unionists made a weak turnout of 43% .)
Another example, the " Declaració de sobirania i del dret a decidir del poble de Catalunya " ( declaration of sovereignty and rights of the Catalan people to decide " , in January 2013 .Results were 85 -for , 41-against . More than 2/3 once again .
Suspended by the Constitutional Court of Spain. Spanish blockage once again.
It's what I said from the beginning : whatever side you take the problem, whatever majority is on the Catalonia Parliament, the blockage come from Spain. 2/3 or not...
It is Joan Vintró conclusion too .
Yes, there is legal ways, but not reachable for Catalonia only .
Even with 100% independentists in the Parliament and 100% independentists in the street.
That is the key there.
IAnother solution would be convincing the King, the central Governement and half of Spain to take their political card with CUP( left independentist) .
Yep, legal all right !
PS : I could have talk as well about " why the 2017 referendum is declared illegal by Spain " : 2/3 in Catalonia Parliament ??? or Spanish Constitution blockage ???
But that's how Parliamentary politics works! Just because you don't like the results does not give indepes the right to break those rules to suit their own agenda. independence parties would be better served by lobbying other political parties like PSOE who are more sympathetic than PP towards independence. PP are only in government by a small minority so it's not unreasonable to expect that another party could form the next government.
Be that as it may, the 2014 referendum clearly showed that based on a 43% turnout with 80% in favour of independence, this represents about 34% of people eligible to vote are in favour of independence. This is still way off the required majority.0 -
Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,193 CMod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 37021
Mod: Bertie 56, please stop copying and pasting blogs and articles. This is a discussion forum, not a repository.The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.
Leviticus 19:34
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La Vanguardia reports that requests for postal votes abroad have risen to 40,000, but guessing which party, if any, this would favour would be purely speculatory:
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171219/433761268808/elecciones-cataluna-voto-correo-extranjero-participacion.html0 -
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An Ciarraioch wrote: »La Vanguardia reports that requests for postal votes abroad have risen to 40,000, but guessing which party, if any, this would favour would be purely speculatory:
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171219/433761268808/elecciones-cataluna-voto-correo-extranjero-participacion.html
As said the article, the votes from outside did reach " far more " than 60% for the independentists side at the last 2015 elections ( " superando holgadamente la cota del 60% " )
And traditionally, PP are always getting low scores abroad.
It would have been nice to read about the irregularities of the votes from abroad in the article , though ( 3000 votes lost in Italy in 2005 :rolleyes: ) .
Let see if the record is beated this time...
Edit : figures checked : exactly 67 % of voters abroad were for independentist movement. ( in 2015 )
http://governacio.gencat.cat/ca/pgov_ambits_d_actuacio/pgov_eleccions/pgov_dades_electorals/resultats-2?id_eleccions=A20151&id_territori=CA090 -
It would have been nice to read about the irregularities of the votes from abroad in the article , though ( 3000 votes lost in Italy in 2005 :rolleyes: ) .
Let see if the record is beated this time...
Why don't you address the voting irregularities that took place on Oct 1st. Do you still believe that this was a legitimate referendum and the result should stand despite all the voting irregularities that have been mentioned numerous times but you choose to ignore?0 -
Not a bright future for the PP Spanish Prime Minister ...
“That is the concept of corruption in its purest form.”
Manuel Morocho, chief inspector of Spain’s Unit of Economic and Financial Crimes (UDEF), claims the People’s Party (PP) acted as a “criminal organisation” in accepting payments from a slush fund.
He also claims there is “circumstantial” evidence to link Mr Rajoy to the criminal activity.
The corruption scandal has been ongoing for months after Mr Rajoy achieved the dubious accolade of being the first sitting Prime Minister to testify as a witness in a criminal trial.
The PP allegedly used a parallel system of accounts to siphon bribes into party funds through “box B”, handled by former party treasurer Luís Barcenas, among others.
Former PP treasurer Mr Barcenas has admitted he regularly handed over envelopes of black money to politicians from his party.
Full article is here, from express.co.uk
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/877529/Mariano-Rajoy-corruption-Peoples-Party-Spain-Luis-Barcenas-finance
More interesting even, a prosecutor accused PP high member of receiving 120.000 € from INDRA .
INDRA is the private company who has been chosen ( irregularly without a company contest) to count the next Catalonia elections votes. ( Thanks to 155 )
(article from 2015 )
https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/04/29/actualidad/1430310345_047314.amp.html
No need of "excuses " in case of weak score of the independentist side , there is already proves...
( by the way, still no papers to vote in Ireland , from my friends... )
Do you have any arguments of your own or do you just copy and paste content from pro Independence websites. Having a debate with pro independence advocates is debating facts versus emotion. Every time one of your assertions is challenged you copy and paste an article on an entirely different matter and just ignore the facts that were presented.
The same charges of corruption can be made against the Catalan leaders. It is only since 2012 the government in Catalonia embraced independence, prior to this pro independence parties didn't make up 20%. But it is easier for them to blame Madrid for the problems in Catalonia to distract away for the alarming levels of corruption that the Catalan leaders are up to their neck in. Prior to this they had zero interest in independence.0 -
Tomorrow is the last day before the election . It is traditionally a " reflexion day " , without any electoral activity .
( Ley Orgánica del Regimen Electoral General 5/1985, 19 de junio for those interested).
For my part :
Bona nit, vota bé !
( good night , vote well )0 -
Tomorrow is the last day before the election . It is traditionally a " reflexion day " , without any electoral activity .
( Ley Orgánica del Regimen Electoral General 5/1985, 19 de junio for those interested).
Bona nit, vota bé !
( good night , vote well )
The final three polls of the campaign - two Scottish, one El Periodico, will be released tomorrow, however.0 -
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An unexpected French poll seems in line with the averages for recent weeks:
http://www.lindependant.fr/2017/12/19/elections-en-catalogne-resultats-tres-serres-en-prevision,3081208.php
Today's first El Nacional poll, on the other hand, seems somewhat less believable:
Pro-indy: 49.5%, 69-73 seats (ERC 31-33, JxC 29-30, CUP 9)
Pro-Spain: 43.5%, 55-59 seats (C's 32-33, PSC 17-19, PP 6-7)
Podemos: 6%, 7-90 -
It certainly will be interesting to see how the final results turn out as for all intents while not officially a referendum this is pretty much what the vote is as for the majority of people I would suggest there is only one issue they are voting on.0
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It certainly will be interesting to see how the final results turn out as for all intents while not officially a referendum this is pretty much what the vote is as for the majority of people I would suggest there is only one issue they are voting on.
Polls suggest that 20% of the electorate are undecided. If this is true, that amounts to approx 1.1 million people. My prediction is that these are silent Unionist voters as all the polls and research until now tells us that pro independence voters are the most certain and most vocal voters. In summary, if you are pro independence the chances are you always knew how you were going to vote. The polls also suggest that despite recent events, there has been no increase in support for pro independence parties as was previously expected.
My prediction is that that the 20% undecided are part of the silent majority who are reluctant to voice their opinion for fear of being singled out or being sidelined in their jobs/communities especially those living in independence heartlands like Girona and also people working in public sector jobs where having Pro Spanish tendencies could be detrimental to their career. An outright majority for pro union parties is not unreasonable especially when you take into consideration the outcome of recent elections e.g. Trump, Brexit and UK general election where the final outcomes were very different to what the received message online and social media.
No doubt that if this were the case we would have allegations of election fraud by independence advocates who I also predicted are feathering their nest for a fall.0 -
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Celia Late Troop wrote: »Polls suggest that 20% of the electorate are undecided. If this is true, that amounts to approx 1.1 million people. My prediction is that these are silent Unionist voters as all the polls and research until now tells us that pro independence voters are the most certain and most vocal voters. In summary, if you are pro independence the chances are you always knew how you were going to vote. The polls also suggest that despite recent events, there has been no increase in support for pro independence parties as was previously expected.
My prediction is that that the 20% undecided are part of the silent majority who are reluctant to voice their opinion for fear of being singled out or being sidelined in their jobs/communities especially those living in independence heartlands like Girona and also people working in public sector jobs where having Pro Spanish tendencies could be detrimental to their career. An outright majority for pro union parties is not unreasonable especially when you take into consideration the outcome of recent elections e.g. Trump, Brexit and UK general election where the final outcomes were very different to what the received message online and social media.
No doubt that if this were the case we would have allegations of election fraud by independence advocates who I also predicted are feathering their nest for a fall.
Not necessarily - most poll movement has been within each bloc, so voters could be undecided between ERC and JxC on one side, or between C's and the Socialists on the other.0
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