Catalan independence referendum, 2017

v638sg7k1a92bx

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Not necessarily - most poll movement has been within each bloc, so voters could be undecided between ERC and JxC on one side, or between C's and the Socialists on the other.

I may be proved wrong, just giving my prediction.

recedite

Big day tomorrow. But I'm not sure that anything will really change, regardless of the outcome. Even if the pro-independence side win, they will just be resetting the clock to the way it was a couple of months ago.

If pro-Unionist/Spain parties get the majority, what would change?

v638sg7k1a92bx

recedite wrote: »

Big day tomorrow. But I'm not sure that anything will really change, regardless of the outcome. Even if the pro-independence side win, they will just be resetting the clock to the way it was a couple of months ago.

If pro-Unionist/Spain parties get the majority, what would change?

As an Example, they could introduce legislation to allow kids to be taught in Spanish. More of a long term plan but today's push for independence is driven by the people who went to school during the nineties which is when Catalonia gained autonomy over education. Since then there has been a systematic attack on Spain in Catalan schools, rewriting history and basically telling the kids that Spain was bad Catalonia was good. They've also made it virtually impossible for kids to be taught in Spanish.

An Ciarraioch

Second El Nacional varies wildly from first, but the overall outcome is practically identical:

https://mobile.twitter.com/electo_mania/status/943595101590310912

An Ciarraioch

Based on El Periodico's poll, a narrow pro-independence absolute majority seems likely:

http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/quinto-sondeo-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html

Barna77

Celia Late Troop wrote: »

As an Example, they could introduce legislation to allow kids to be taught in Spanish. More of a long term plan but today's push for independence is driven by the people who went to school during the nineties which is when Catalonia gained autonomy over education. Since then there has been a systematic attack on Spain in Catalan schools, rewriting history and basically telling the kids that Spain was bad Catalonia was good. They've also made it virtually impossible for kids to be taught in Spanish.

And teaching that thing of the Crown of Aragon-Catalonia....
Pretty much a 19th century invention


I should stop reading this forum. I had some weird dream last night, featuring Puigdemont himself ... :eek::eek:

v638sg7k1a92bx

Barna77 wrote: »

And teaching that thing of the Crown of Aragon-Catalonia....
Pretty much a 19th century invention


I should stop reading this forum. I had some weird dream last night, featuring Puigdemont himself ... :eek::eek:

They also teach them that the Ebro river rises In "foreign land"

An Ciarraioch

Whatever the outcome, let's hope that it is acceptable to all sides, and that the Generalitat is fully restored.

An Ciarraioch

If the "silent majority" really do exist, they haven't made their presence felt thus far, with turnout 1% lower:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JanneRiitakorpi/status/943817208463085568

Barna77

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If the "silent majority" really do exist, they haven't made their presence felt thus far, with turnout 1% lower:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JanneRiitakorpi/status/943817208463085568

I just read that turnout is also lower in traditional pro independent areas

But elections in Spain are always on Sundays. This is the first time in many years that an election has been held on a weekday. I guess it would affect the turnout figures

An Ciarraioch

Next set will be published in 10 minutes, so will give a clearer indication - as you say, there has been talk of a probable post-work surge, similar to Irish elections.

An Ciarraioch

Now reported to be 69.5%, compared to 63% in 2015:

https://mobile.twitter.com/itsanneta/status/943889837987389441

An Ciarraioch

La Vanguardia exit poll projects a narrow pro-indy majority (67-71), but Ciudadanos as the largest single party:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171221/433800930490/elecciones-catalanas-encuesta-cierre-urna.html

An Ciarraioch

Live count almost half complete - biggest surprise is that JxC could win more seats than Esquerra:

https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09999CM.htm?lang=en

EagererBeaver

Coalition talks to be very interesting. Junqueras in prison, Puigdemont in Belgium. What happens next is anyone's guess.

An Ciarraioch

EagererBeaver wrote: »

Coalition talks to be very interesting. Junqueras in prison, Puigdemont in Belgium. What happens next is anyone's guess.

Puigdemont did say recently that he would return if Junts were capable of leading a government, and barring some dramatic shift in the final 8%, that seems certain now.

EagererBeaver

Depends how you define "capable". Certainly more fractures now obviously between the parties and individuals that made up the old Junts pel Si coalition. I'm not sure Junqueras and Rovira will be rushing into Puigdemont's arms.

Anyway, back to square one.

eire4

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Live count almost half complete - biggest surprise is that JxC could win more seats than Esquerra:

https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09999CM.htm?lang=en

From what I saw turnout was about 82% so no excuses this time from anyone. The Spanish government need to get off their high horse stop the heavy handed bully tactics and actually sit down with the Catalans and hammer out a deal.

George Sunsnow

Even though according to sky news right now,a majority voted for anti independence parties? 52% popular vote
You can bet a lot of those voting for independence parties would vote the other way in a properly enforced regulated referendum

recedite

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Even though according to sky news right now,a majority voted for anti independence parties?

We have heard all this moaning before when Trump won, and when Brexit won.
"Popular vote" Versus "number of seats". "If this had happened, the result would have been different". Or if that constituency boundary had been different.

Pro-independence side wins, for the third time in a row. Deal with it.

What we have now is Groundhog day resetting itself yet again. Rajoy tried to break the pro-independence cycle by calling on "the silent majority" to come out and vote, but he failed. It turns out that there is no silent majority, there is only a divided opinion, with the pro-independence side consistently having the edge.

On the other hand, the vast majority of Spaniards outside Catalonia will never vote for Catalan independence, so if Catalans continue to play by Rajoy's rules, they will be stuck in this Groundhog Day forever.

Again we compare to Ireland and Scotland.
Ireland decided to stop playing by the monarchy's rules, and just seized independence.
For Scotland, the rules were changed before they voted. If Scots had wanted independence they would have got it.

Hector Savage

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Even though according to sky news right now,a majority voted for anti independence parties? 52% popular vote
You can bet a lot of those voting for independence parties would vote the other way in a properly enforced regulated referendum

Yes, I personally know some people who voted yes on October 1st (as a protest to police behaviour) but would vote NO if it were a real ref. - for stability and staying in EU alone.

There will not be a Catalan independent republic.

George Sunsnow

Aye
A lot of aul nonsense spoke
A referendum is based on the popular vote
Last referendum was a vote early vote often unregulated job
A real one would bring out the realist vote,they vote based on their pocket adding to the 52% voting against independence

EagererBeaver

recedite wrote: »

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Even though according to sky news right now,a majority voted for anti independence parties?

We have heard all this moaning before when Trump won, and when Brexit won.
"Popular vote" Versus "number of seats". "If this had happened, the result would have been different". Or if that constituency boundary had been different.

Pro-independence side wins, for the third time in a row. Deal with it.

What we have now is Groundhog day resetting itself yet again. Rajoy tried to break the pro-independence cycle by calling on "the silent majority" to come out and vote, but he failed. It turns out that there is no silent majority, there is only a divided opinion, with the pro-independence side consistently having the edge.

On the other hand, the vast majority of Spaniards outside Catalonia will never vote for Catalan independence, so if Catalans continue to play by Rajoy's rules, they will be stuck in this Groundhog Day forever.

Again we compare to Ireland and Scotland.
Ireland decided to stop playing by the monarchy's rules, and just seized independence.
For Scotland, the rules were changed before they voted. If Scots had wanted independence they would have got it.

Well, clearly not as they got less than 50% of the vote...

bilbot79

Barcelona was majority against. Perhaps they could remain part of Spain. How would that sit with the pro independence lobby? Would they expect Spain to recognise Catalan independence and then refuse to respect the wishes of the Barcelona majority lol

Pepe LeFrits

7.5% of the votes went to En Comú Podem, who are basically agnostic when it comes to independence (they supported holding a referendum). A state-sanctioned referendum could go either way.

EagererBeaver

Pepe LeFrits wrote: »

7.5% of the votes went to En Comú Podem, who are basically agnostic when it comes to independence (they supported holding a referendum). A state-sanctioned referendum could go either way.

No they're not, they're against independence but support holding a referendum.

An Ciarraioch

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Aye
A lot of aul nonsense spoke
A referendum is based on the popular vote
Last referendum was a vote early vote often unregulated job
A real one would bring out the realist vote,they vote based on their pocket adding to the 52% voting against independence

Then Rajoy should have no problem in offering one, then.

Avatar MIA

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Even though according to sky news right now,a majority voted for anti independence parties? 52% popular vote
You can bet a lot of those voting for independence parties would vote the other way in a properly enforced regulated referendum

Not sure who's misrepresenting the results, you or Sky news.

47% voted for independence parties but less voted for the unionist parties. There was approx. 9% voting for the socialist party that advocated a referendum, but not particularly coming down on a particular side re independence.

v638sg7k1a92bx

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Then Rajoy should have no problem in offering one, then.

Its not up to him. They still need to go though the democratic process which is the Catalan Parliament in the first instance and then the constitution. This is one of the points that most people outside of Spain don't understand. It is not Rajoy's decision to grant a referendum, the pro independence parties need to pass the legislationin their own Parliament to hold a referendum, they still don't have the required numbers to do this which is one of the reasons the referendum on Oct 1st was deemed illegal.

Hector Savage

Celia Late Troop wrote: »

Its not up to him. They still need to go though the democratic process which is the Catalan Parliament in the first instance and then the constitution. This is one of the points that most people outside of Spain don't understand. It is not Rajoy's decision to grant a referendum, the pro independence parties need to pass the legislationin their own Parliament to hold a referendum, they still don't have the required numbers to do this which is one of the reasons the referendum on Oct 1st was deemed illegal.

Exactly, they need a 66% majority approval from the catalan parliament to legally hold a referendum - something the independence people stick their heads in the sand over