Property Market 2017

LirW

Reason why I'm sceptical: In my hometown in Austria there was a project with scary similarity to Cherrywood and it all started out the same way, there were amazing plans of a new village with bazillion accommodation and business opportunities, on a old brewery land that's owned by the council. They lost all their investors shortly after start and now it's all lying idle.

In theory is sounds amazing but it doesn't seem like it's well thought through because if it's finished the way it is there will be serious pressure on the infrastructure. Also when you look at current waiting lists on developments in the south it'll take a bit of pressure off the market but that again depends on the price. If all the new residential units will have an asking of 500-600k for the smallest unit... well.

I remember that the council said something of purchasing a not insignificant number of units for social housing purposes which will exceed the 10%, but can't find anything about that right now.

Wait and see, I'm curious if it'll work out as intended.

pilly

What's Cherrywood? And how has it come up here?

LirW

http://www.cherrywooddublin.com/masterplan/

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

..............210-220 sounds pretty ok.

For what?

Mickiemcfist

LirW wrote: »

Reason why I'm sceptical: In my hometown in Austria there was a project with scary similarity to Cherrywood and it all started out the same way, there were amazing plans of a new village with bazillion accommodation and business opportunities, on a old brewery land that's owned by the council. They lost all their investors shortly after start and now it's all lying idle.

In theory is sounds amazing but it doesn't seem like it's well thought through because if it's finished the way it is there will be serious pressure on the infrastructure. Also when you look at current waiting lists on developments in the south it'll take a bit of pressure off the market but that again depends on the price. If all the new residential units will have an asking of 500-600k for the smallest unit... well.

I remember that the council said something of purchasing a not insignificant number of units for social housing purposes which will exceed the 10%, but can't find anything about that right now.

Wait and see, I'm curious if it'll work out as intended.

I'm not sure infrastructure will be an issue (from a transport point of view anyway) Its less than half a kilometre from the M50 & N11 (which has fantastic bus routes) & has a luas station in the centre of it.

pilly

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

I'm not sure infrastructure will be an issue (from a transport point of view anyway) Its less than half a kilometre from the M50 & N11 (which has fantastic bus routes) & has a luas station in the centre of it.

I don't know about that, the area out by the Beacon hospital has all of that but it's the most soul-less place to live that I've ever seen.

No restaurants, bars, small shops, in effect no community.

Also, traffic crazy at peak times, half a kilometre from the M50 may not seem far until you're sitting in traffic for half an hour to go that half a kilometre.

Mickiemcfist

pilly wrote: »

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

I'm not sure infrastructure will be an issue (from a transport point of view anyway) Its less than half a kilometre from the M50 & N11 (which has fantastic bus routes) & has a luas station in the centre of it.

I don't know about that, the area out by the Beacon hospital has all of that but it's the most soul-less place to live that I've ever seen.

No restaurants, bars, small shops, in effect no community.

Also, traffic crazy at peak times, half a kilometre from the M50 may not seem far until you're sitting in traffic for half an hour to go that half a kilometre.

Not many urban places in Dublin are going to be traffic free at peak times, but I agree that the beacon is & I'm sure Cherrywood when finished will be soulless.

Samuel T. Cogley

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd suggest prices have pretty much peaked- you might have small upside yet, but there is too much uncertainty out there. Looks like Dublin isn't favour of the month for London financiers either- so I'd say- just shift it. 210-220 sounds pretty ok.

I'll have to hang on to her for a few more years, hopefully it'll keep breaking even yearly. I'll just have to wait until the next boom in prices becuase if there's one constant it's that we never learn! :pac:

LirW

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

I'm not sure infrastructure will be an issue (from a transport point of view anyway) Its less than half a kilometre from the M50 & N11 (which has fantastic bus routes) & has a luas station in the centre of it.

And there is the problem: I'm very pessimistic that the whole transport service can carry this amount of people, because we're talking about over 10.000 people that'll live there and this is a significant number. In theory it all sounds good and I know people will be sold on the good connection on paper, but once you have thousands of people using public transport and the motorways on a regular base when there aren't changes made, then there will be frustration.

Mickiemcfist

LirW wrote: »

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

I'm not sure infrastructure will be an issue (from a transport point of view anyway) Its less than half a kilometre from the M50 & N11 (which has fantastic bus routes) & has a luas station in the centre of it.

And there is the problem: I'm very pessimistic that the whole transport service can carry this amount of people, because we're talking about over 10.000 people that'll live there and this is a significant number. In theory it all sounds good and I know people will be sold on the good connection on paper, but once you have thousands of people using public transport and the motorways on a regular base when there aren't changes made, then there will be frustration.

Yea I agree it's a challenge, but at the same time it's in a very good location to fix it with existing services. Luas is there, increase frequency, bus routes are there, increase frequency. Additionally a lot of jobs will be created in the corporate park/retail space there so there will be extra need for transport in both directions at peak times, meaning profitable routes for buses.

theboringfox

I first started looking at the Property Market 2015 thread and since followed 2016 and 2017. There has been a very large drop off in activity each year. I was wondering was this reduced interest or was it just a few major posters have dropped off i.e. they found a house and moved on.

Villa05

theboringfox wrote:

I first started looking at the Property Market 2015 thread and since followed 2016 and 2017. There has been a very large drop off in activity each year. I was wondering was this reduced interest or was it just a few major posters have dropped off i.e. they found a house and moved on.

Probably a resignation that nothing will change and we will continue make the same mistakes over and over again.

Maybe protecting ourselves and family from the next inevitable bust would be more fruitful than warning others of the major risks of a property market that is completely rigged against the best interests of buyers and the general population as a whole.

cnocbui

Here in the mid-west, there really is a trend afoot with people buying abandoned properties and renovating them. Almost no building of new houses, but people are buying places with caved-in roofs and completely remodeling them.

I guess this will continue for some time until prices of established houses have risen to more sane and sustainable levels, by which I mean being worth as much as their replacement construction cost.

mel123

Government to axe help-to-buy scheme for first time buyers
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/government-to-axe-helptobuy-scheme-for-first-time-buyers-35837674.html

Did this scheme just drive up prices and demand? IMO it did nothing positive even for the people who availed of the grant.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

If they axe it they'll have to give a run in time. Prices to surge even further with that. It's totally ****ing rigged.

Taylor365

theboringfox wrote: »

I first started looking at the Property Market 2015 thread and since followed 2016 and 2017. There has been a very large drop off in activity each year. I was wondering was this reduced interest or was it just a few major posters have dropped off i.e. they found a house and moved on.

Probably because the same solutions have been spouted year after year but the gov just keep going round in circles doing everything to avoid them, aka not in THEIR interests.

The_Conductor

Augeo wrote: »

For what?

For Samuel's apartment that he's thinking of shifting.

The_Conductor

mel123 wrote: »

Government to axe help-to-buy scheme for first time buyers
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/government-to-axe-helptobuy-scheme-for-first-time-buyers-35837674.html

Did this scheme just drive up prices and demand? IMO it did nothing positive even for the people who availed of the grant.

RTE's 'News-at-One' did a survey in the week after the grant was brought in- and found conclusively that within the 7 days of the scheme's announcement, the entirety of the grant amount had been incremented onto the price of new builds, nationally, in the most cynical of manners.

Yes- the scheme drove up prices- and stoked the 'get on the property ladder at any cost' brigade- keep in mind- 2007 was fully 10 years ago, we have a new generation of prospective purchasers who were cannon fodder for developers. Developers don't care, and anyone who thinks they do- is on another planet.

We will complete 18k new units this year. We need 25k new units per annum to stand still. Until we have equilibrium between supply and demand- extra money is simply going to mean higher prices- its irrational to imagine it might mean anything else.

kippy

The_Conductor wrote: »

RTE's 'News-at-One' did a survey in the week after the grant was brought in- and found conclusively that within the 7 days of the scheme's announcement, the entirety of the grant amount had been incremented onto the price of new builds, nationally, in the most cynical of manners.

Yes- the scheme drove up prices- and stoked the 'get on the property ladder at any cost' brigade- keep in mind- 2007 was fully 10 years ago, we have a new generation of prospective purchasers who were cannon fodder for developers. Developers don't care, and anyone who thinks they do- is on another planet.

We will complete 18k new units this year. We need 25k new units per annum to stand still. Until we have equilibrium between supply and demand- extra money is simply going to mean higher prices- its irrational to imagine it might mean anything else.

Someone brought it up before-not sure was it this thread or elsewhere, but supply and demand rarely meet anywhere when it comes to housing. One side is almost always over subscribed.

youcancallmeal

mel123 wrote: »

Government to axe help-to-buy scheme for first time buyers
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/government-to-axe-helptobuy-scheme-for-first-time-buyers-35837674.html

Did this scheme just drive up prices and demand? IMO it did nothing positive even for the people who availed of the grant.

I dunno we went sale agreed in January on a new house that we wouldn't have been able to afford if it weren't for the 20k we got from the HTB. The price of the house was set back in August 2016. The developer literally knew nothing about HTB scheme and it took us 2 stressful months to get them to get on board and sign up to it. So in our case it literally did help us to buy. In the end I feel we got a great deal considering what it ultimately cost us. Now that's just us and our possibly edge case so I'm sure new builds where pricing was announced after 1st Jan 2017 were probably inflated?

myshirt

Of course the FTB was inflationary, and was always going to be inflationary. I'd be actually quite worried if they never knew that, so no doubt they did.

The value in the FTB grant was the signalling effect on the market; the route to market for struggling FTB'S; the equity increase for existing owners (didn't have a bad effect on the solvency of the banks either), etc

There is a smart game going on here. I'm worried young people who don't have some level of family wealth behind them are getting locked out here from the type of social and economic mobility that should be within their grasp if they put the effort in.

We have a hardworking and rolling stock of youth paying anything up to 50% of takehome pay, great for those looking at Ireland as a great little engine running nice and sweet to keep the passive income coming in to the investor class, but how long can it continue?

How long can our youth continue to bust their bollix only to wake up in a cold sweat at 40 to find that they have only really been working to put money in another man's pocket? No real hard gains for them or their children over the years, despite career or educational progression.

pilly

The_Conductor wrote:

Yes- the scheme drove up prices- and stoked the 'get on the property ladder at any cost' brigade- keep in mind- 2007 was fully 10 years ago, we have a new generation of prospective purchasers who were cannon fodder for developers. Developers don't care, and anyone who thinks they do- is on another planet.

Whilst I agree with your post I fail to see why developers should care?

They're in business to make a profit not to provide a public service.

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

For Samuel's apartment that he's thinking of shifting.

Do you know more than what's been mentioned in here?

JagoMoon

Read back a couple of pages and you'll understand the quote. I think you have wires crossed.

Striker10

I have been looking for houses now Carpenterstown and Castleknock area for over 5 months and it was true that prices higher than asking prices. Also noticed that house sales are very very low on Daft since 6 months. Our budget is from 300 to 350K as we can not move another location as my kids are going to Laurel lodge primary school. Currently paying rent is 1500. Why house sales are very low at the moment in this area, is this normal? Would we wait for another few months/year until house prices go down and more houses in the market? Please advise

The_Conductor

Augeo wrote: »

Do you know more than what's been mentioned in here?

Its come up several times in this forum (not just this thread).

mloc123

Striker10 wrote: »

I have been looking for houses now Carpenterstown and Castleknock area for over 5 months and it was true that prices higher than asking prices. Also noticed that house sales are very very low on Daft since 6 months. Our budget is from 300 to 350K as we can not move another location as my kids are going to Laurel lodge primary school. Currently paying rent is 1500. Why house sales are very low at the moment in this area, is this normal? Would we wait for another few months/year until house prices go down and more houses in the market? Please advise

Catch 22... Reason so few houses are going up is because people expect prices to be higher in the coming months. Why sell for x now if it could go for x+50k in 6 months.

Maybe prices will go down... Maybe they will go up. Nobody knows for sure.

LirW

Striker10 wrote: »

I have been looking for houses now Carpenterstown and Castleknock area for over 5 months and it was true that prices higher than asking prices. Also noticed that house sales are very very low on Daft since 6 months. Our budget is from 300 to 350K as we can not move another location as my kids are going to Laurel lodge primary school. Currently paying rent is 1500. Why house sales are very low at the moment in this area, is this normal? Would we wait for another few months/year until house prices go down and more houses in the market? Please advise

Well, it depends on what your need is. Is your current accommodation getting too small for you? Then you have to find a way. In the end you're looking for a family home and not an investment and this comes pretty much down to your needs. If you're living on top of each other then there's no point in staying longer than necessary. The older the kids get the more space the whole family needs.
If it gets cheaper or not, nobody can tell you. People are holding back because they can get more in a few months/years but that shouldn't influence your decision on housing your family.

Also by now it is not uncommon to place kids in different schools because people have to move away from where they live.
If you want to stay in the area without compromise you have no choice but just keep looking.

seamus

mloc123 wrote: »

Catch 22... Reason so few houses are going up is because people expect prices to be higher in the coming months. Why sell for x now if it could go for x+50k in 6 months.

Maybe prices will go down... Maybe they will go up. Nobody knows for sure.

Availability of credit also makes a significant difference though.

During the last boom, people bought a property, then flipped it two years later and bought a bigger house in a nicer area. While they increased their equity, they also inflated their borrowings to fund the next house.
This was because the banks looked at the deposit.

So when they bought the first house with a €30k deposit, the bank gave them €340k of a mortgage. When they'd managed to increase their equity to €60k two years later, the bank were happy to throw €500k at them for a purchase of €560k. Loadsa money, bigger house. This is where people found themselves in trouble. Car salesmen and hairdressers repaying mortgages of half a million euro.

The rules of the game have changed this time; you can't just keep increasing your borrowings, because the affordability rules are keeping a lid on it. For example, I bought in July 2015 and according to all of the statistics, I now have an additional €40k in equity on top of my original deposit.

However, if I was to go to the bank today with those figures, I wouldn't be in a position to "trade up". Realistically they'd give me a small bit more money, but not enough to move to a bigger house in a better location. Because my ability to repay hasn't changed enough to make that happen. I'd be able to get enough money together to buy my own house again.

IMO, that's one of the big reasons that few properties are appearing on the market - most people will only sell if they can trade up, but the banks aren't throwing the money at them that they would need.

Renovations, extensions and "building a house in my huge garden" though are absolutely booming because that's money people can get their hands on.

mloc123

seamus wrote: »

Availability of credit also makes a significant difference though.

During the last boom, people bought a property, then flipped it two years later and bought a bigger house in a nicer area. While they increased their equity, they also inflated their borrowings to fund the next house.
This was because the banks looked at the deposit.

So when they bought the first house with a €30k deposit, the bank gave them €340k of a mortgage. When they'd managed to increase their equity to €60k two years later, the bank were happy to throw €500k at them for a purchase of €560k. Loadsa money, bigger house. This is where people found themselves in trouble. Car salesmen and hairdressers repaying mortgages of half a million euro.

The rules of the game have changed this time; you can't just keep increasing your borrowings, because the affordability rules are keeping a lid on it. For example, I bought in July 2015 and according to all of the statistics, I now have an additional €40k in equity on top of my original deposit.

However, if I was to go to the bank today with those figures, I wouldn't be in a position to "trade up". Realistically they'd give me a small bit more money, but not enough to move to a bigger house in a better location. Because my ability to repay hasn't changed enough to make that happen. I'd be able to get enough money together to buy my own house again.

IMO, that's one of the big reasons that few properties are appearing on the market - most people will only sell if they can trade up, but the banks aren't throwing the money at them that they would need.

Renovations, extensions and "building a house in my huge garden" though are absolutely booming because that's money people can get their hands on.

Good point. I was looking at this from the perspective of people that bought a 'starter' 3 bed semi 7-8 years ago and now have capacity to borrow and buy a 5 bed etc.. but are holding out for the best return on their current house.

In general.. looking around my local area, I do not see supply coming along any time soon... some new developments but even then the number of houses is small and the completion dates are a year off.