Property Market 2017

cnocbui

On top of the 1,000 workers already slated for JP Morgan's new Dublin Office, they are now reportedly looking for more office space sufficient for a further 770 workers.

Looks like supply is just going to get ever tighter as Brexit unrolls. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-21/jpmorgan-said-to-weigh-doubling-down-on-dublin-new-dutch-office

theboringfox

Country needs to support development of other economic hubs in Dublin, Limerick and Galway to alleviate this. But the biggest areas to address this is for Dublin to build higher!!!

The_Conductor

theboringfox wrote: »

Country needs to support development of other economic hubs in Dublin, Limerick and Galway to alleviate this. But the biggest areas to address this is for Dublin to build higher!!!

Yes, we need to build higher- however, its all well and good pointing to Limerick, Galway and Cork- and suggesting economic hubs be built there- the simple fact of the matter is- in an international context, Dublin is a small city, and none of our other cities feature. Good luck trying to tell Citibank or RBS staff- that Galway is a wonderful city and they'll love it- you'll get an instant 'no-sale', they want to go to Dublin (or Paris/Amsterdam/Frankfurt/Berlin etc)- not Galway, Limerick, Cork etc.

We only have one reasonable sized city in Ireland- and we do need to build up, and not out- but trying to flog regional cities- is flogging a dead horse by and large.

pilly

The_Conductor wrote: »

Yes, we need to build higher- however, its all well and good pointing to Limerick, Galway and Cork- and suggesting economic hubs be built there- the simple fact of the matter is- in an international context, Dublin is a small city, and none of our other cities feature. Good luck trying to tell Citibank or RBS staff- that Galway is a wonderful city and they'll love it- you'll get an instant 'no-sale', they want to go to Dublin (or Paris/Amsterdam/Frankfurt/Berlin etc)- not Galway, Limerick, Cork etc.

We only have one reasonable sized city in Ireland- and we do need to build up, and not out- but trying to flog regional cities- is flogging a dead horse by and large.

Bit of a sweeping statement there. Plenty of huge international companies based in Cork and believe me their staff love it. Great quality of life, living a rural lifestyle within a short drive of the city.

These guys have tons of money as well, I've never seen the designer stores in Cork so busy.

Lougarden

pilly wrote: »

Bit of a sweeping statement there. Plenty of huge international companies based in Cork and believe me their staff love it. Great quality of life, living a rural lifestyle within a short drive of the city.

These guys have tons of money as well, I've never seen the designer stores in Cork so busy.

I agree with this. Dublin is being honed in on too much, as are the main EU capital cities and it's missing huge potential and a well-being / balanced lifestyle that lots would love. How fantastic would it be for our happiness, health and productivity not to have to be caught up in Dublin for work and have a rural / semi rural or small town lifestyle with little or no commute. There are highly qualified people in all of our counties that at this point do a huge commute to sacrifice time so that they can come back to a great home in a great setting and others that have to forego the setting and lifestyle that they want as caught up in the pricey rat run or Dublin salary. If our broadband could catch up with the city..there'd be many happy at home employees and diversified business I think that may even drive down the absurd Dub prices and the reliance that our family members have to be there in the first place ; often causing distain to what is a great city in the end

lcwill

Lougarden wrote: »

pilly wrote: »

I agree with this. Dublin is being honed in on too much, as are the main EU capital cities and it's missing huge potential and a well-being / balanced lifestyle that lots would love. How fantastic would it be for our happiness, health and productivity not to have to be caught up in Dublin for work and have a rural / semi rural or small town lifestyle with little or no commute. There are highly qualified people in all of our counties that at this point do a huge commute to sacrifice time so that they can come back to a great home in a great setting and others that have to forego the setting and lifestyle that they want as caught up in the pricey rat run or Dublin salary. If our broadband could catch up with the city..there'd be many happy at home employees and diversified business I think that may even drive down the absurd Dub prices and the reliance that our family members have to be there in the first place ; often causing distain to what is a great city in the end

I would kill for my company to relocate to a small city with easy commute from surrounding small towns and rural areas

theboringfox

Apple has a huge employee base in Cork as do many other large companies. So it is possible to develop in other regions. However you are right Dublin will be first on many radars and in particular for financial services. Dublin has become too expensive. Brilliant city but you need high wages to live there and that's not good or sustainable for employers or employees.

To keep it on topic I think the property market in Dublin is reaching an affordability ceiling as prices are getting to level people increasingly struggle to support and are caught by CBI rules.

Genuinely worried for people borrowing at 3.5x multiple as thats very stretchy unless they have very good visibilty on significan wage increases over time.

DubCount

lcwill wrote: »

Lougarden wrote: »

I would kill for my company to relocate to a small city with easy commute from surrounding small towns and rural areas

I think its age and circumstance dependent. In my past I was involved in trying to recruit IT staff into a smaller town. Middle aged staff with children could see an advantage (cheaper property, quicker commutes, low crime, good community for children....) but the project was moved to Dublin because Graduates and younger staff just weren't interested.

Lougarden

DubCount wrote: »

lcwill wrote: »

I think its age and circumstance dependent. In my past I was involved in trying to recruit IT staff into a smaller town. Middle aged staff with children could see an advantage (cheaper property, quicker commutes, low crime, good community for children....) but the project was moved to Dublin because Graduates and younger staff just weren't interested.

Really good view point, I suppose I would have been thinking of it as if it were a grad not being originally from the city. Surely though there must be a way to attract that talent to other areas then Dub where their wage just becomes pocket money after rent and expenses. I do look fwd to more flexible work and trust in our jobs via tech where location is only a hinderence for necessity (and minimising might make f2f a joy for others too that relish it). I think I take from your point too though that the grads want that city life that they don't think they would have needed your wonderful offering at the time (it would have sounded great to me ) ..In case I'm taking off topic ill bring back to thought on 2017 property. I think it will slow down and fall but not steeply. Someone quoted a d15 area now at 370k..It was 210 a couple of years back and that's what they are worth...In my opinion it will stabilise but will take circa 2 yrs

Ray Palmer

theboringfox wrote: »

Dublin has become too expensive. Brilliant city but you need high wages to live there and that's not good or sustainable for employers or employees.

It is actually sustainable it is part of the natural transformation of cities. City gets more expensive and areas get gentrified. There is some halfhearted attempt to keep communities together but eventually they go.
Just look at any city and how they have transformed over time. I know people like to go on about Dublin being small but this is how cities grow. There will be no collapse of the city if minimum wage earners can't afford rent. Wages will determine where you live it has just been messed up by the crash before. Now it is hitting a normal phase of city life cycle

LirW

You mean the "gentrification" that you're supposed to pay like 300k for a kip in some shady part of Coolock and that after a week-long bidding war?

mdmix

The_Conductor wrote: »

Yes, we need to build higher- however, its all well and good pointing to Limerick, Galway and Cork- and suggesting economic hubs be built there- the simple fact of the matter is- in an international context, Dublin is a small city, and none of our other cities feature. Good luck trying to tell Citibank or RBS staff- that Galway is a wonderful city and they'll love it- you'll get an instant 'no-sale', they want to go to Dublin (or Paris/Amsterdam/Frankfurt/Berlin etc)- not Galway, Limerick, Cork etc.

We only have one reasonable sized city in Ireland- and we do need to build up, and not out- but trying to flog regional cities- is flogging a dead horse by and large.

i think the key word is develop. nobody is saying you should push companies or workers into regional cities. its not about being seen to be fair, its common sense planning. the population of Dublin is set to rise by 20% in the next 13 years. where are all these people coming from and where will they live? is 20% healthy growth? a lot of this growth is likely inward migration from Ireland and abroad.

Dublin is at the point where no other irish city can compete. if adequet infrastructure were available (i.e. m20) then cork, Limerick and Galway are commutable. more graduates would be encouraged to stay in regional cities as their job prospects are improved. foreigners may also be encouraged by this, and won't see dublin as the only available option. Finally, dubliners gain as it slow the population growth to more manageable levels, keeping rents down etc.

pilly

theboringfox wrote:

To keep it on topic I think the property market in Dublin is reaching an affordability ceiling as prices are getting to level people increasingly struggle to support and are caught by CBI rules.

You weren't off topic though. It's not a Dublin property market thread.

Alkers

theboringfox wrote:

Genuinely worried for people borrowing at 3.5x multiple as thats very stretchy unless they have very good visibilty on significan wage increases over time.

It really isn't though? We've borrowed at about 3.7 times with an exception and were very comfortably able to meet the repayments as it is, if neither of us receive any salary increases.

Graham

Simona1986 wrote: »

It really isn't though? We've borrowed at about 3.7 times with an exception and were very comfortably able to meet the repayments as it is, if neither of us receive any salary increases.

It's not just about now though. There are plenty of people who would almost immediately start to struggle if there were any significant jumps in interest rates.

Cyrus

Graham wrote: »

It's not just about now though. There are plenty of people who would almost immediately start to struggle if there were any significant jumps in interest rates.

true, you would hope that interest rate inflation would be matched by wage inflation but who knows

the 3.5x thing is fine at lower income levels, but as your income increases its too much as each incremental 10k is about 4,800 or so in your pocket.

affordability is a better test.

The_Conductor

Simona1986 wrote: »

It really isn't though? We've borrowed at about 3.7 times with an exception and were very comfortably able to meet the repayments as it is, if neither of us receive any salary increases.

Currently, at historically low interest rates.
How would you be sorted- if the retail rates went to 5-5.5%, from perhaps 3-3.5% today? This is not scaremongering- this is a reasonable assumption............

Mickiemcfist

DubCount wrote: »

lcwill wrote: »

I think its age and circumstance dependent. In my past I was involved in trying to recruit IT staff into a smaller town. Middle aged staff with children could see an advantage (cheaper property, quicker commutes, low crime, good community for children....) but the project was moved to Dublin because Graduates and younger staff just weren't interested.

Cork or Limerick aren't small towns, id say its a fairly easy sell to cork/limerick graduates.

I used to work in a large multi national with offices in Dublin and cork, when I'd go to visit the cork office id go to meet a friend in the office for BBQs with him and the team in his house by the beach overlooking the sea, middle of nowhere but only 20 or so minutes from South cork city. He was paying the same rent as I was for a 1 bed apartment in Dublin city centre.

I was infinitely jealous & would be fairly certain middle aged parents plus a backfill of people university educated in cork/limerick could fill most offices if there was offices set up there.

keane2097

Honestly it's just laughable nonsense to think that if you put well-paying jobs in Cork or Limerick you wouldn't be able to fill them with good people because it's not Dublin.

pilly

keane2097 wrote: »

Honestly it's just laughable nonsense to think that if you put well-paying jobs in Cork or Limerick you wouldn't be able to fill them with good people because it's not Dublin.

Ah Limerick is pushing it now.

The_Conductor

keane2097 wrote: »

Honestly it's just laughable nonsense to think that if you put well-paying jobs in Cork or Limerick you wouldn't be able to fill them with good people because it's not Dublin.

Its not that you're looking for good people to take up well paying jobs in Cork or Limerick (or where-ever)- you're trying to persuade incumbents in well paying jobs in London (predominantly) to move to Ireland- and while many of those who would consider moving would be happy to move to Dublin- the numbers who might have a preference for other cities- is minuscule.

There have already been briefing sessions at a number of large firms in London- to try and get indications from pre-existing staff- who among them might be happy to move- and where they might be happy to move to.

In support of this- some companies are designing relocation packages for staff- to try and entice them to move.

This is not a 'lets bring 1000 finance jobs to Cork' instead of Dublin issue- its a how do we sell Ireland as a location for Citi/RBS/INA or others- to move staff to- over and above Paris/Frankfurt/Luxembourg/Amsterdam etc etc.

Personally- I'd give my right arm to work in Galway- and I threw a party when I managed to get transferred out of Dublin- I have zero affinity for the hellhole- however, I have to recognise its our only city of international significance- and its where young and mobile workers, predominantly, want to work.

mloc123

The_Conductor wrote: »

Currently, at historically low interest rates.
How would you be sorted- if the retail rates went to 5-5.5%, from perhaps 3-3.5% today? This is not scaremongering- this is a reasonable assumption............

Banks are stress testing rates and looking at affordability on these values tho... right?

The_Conductor

mloc123 wrote: »

Banks are stress testing rates and looking at affordability on these values tho... right?

Yes- however, someone looking at what they're paying today- and deciding they are in fine form financially- could have to totally reassess their position- if their interest rates doubled. People think its impossible for interest rates to double- well, no, its not. Historic norms for interest rates in the EU- would suggest an ECB overnight rate of 4-4.5%- and not its current effective negative rate.

People need to look at the bigger picture.

Cyrus

mloc123 wrote: »

Banks are stress testing rates and looking at affordability on these values tho... right?

they are

keane2097

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its not that you're looking for good people to take up well paying jobs in Cork or Limerick (or where-ever)- you're trying to persuade incumbents in well paying jobs in London (predominantly) to move to Ireland- and while many of those who would consider moving would be happy to move to Dublin- the numbers who might have a preference for other cities- is minuscule.

There have already been briefing sessions at a number of large firms in London- to try and get indications from pre-existing staff- who among them might be happy to move- and where they might be happy to move to.

In support of this- some companies are designing relocation packages for staff- to try and entice them to move.

This is not a 'lets bring 1000 finance jobs to Cork' instead of Dublin issue- its a how do we sell Ireland as a location for Citi/RBS/INA or others- to move staff to- over and above Paris/Frankfurt/Luxembourg/Amsterdam etc etc.

Personally- I'd give my right arm to work in Galway- and I threw a party when I managed to get transferred out of Dublin- I have zero affinity for the hellhole- however, I have to recognise its our only city of international significance- and its where young and mobile workers, predominantly, want to work.

Preferences are one thing. Young and mobile workers who are told your job is gone because of Brexit are going to move where they're told at the end of the day.

I understand what you are saying, but let's be honest the people who want to move to Dublin because it has better nightlife are not making the decisions here. I've never been asked by a company where I think they should open their next office to give me the nicest lifestyle - places are obviously interested in being attractive to workers but you are talking about a captive audience.

If the companies are successfully incentivised either directly or by investment to set up in places other than Dublin the 20-somethings who are essentially grunt-workers in these companies will move there.

Facebook are opening an office in Cork in the next while, I seriously doubt there will be any issues filling the posts. Intel, Northern Trust, Apple and ****loads more have offices in Limerick and Cork, Uber and Facebook both setting up new offices in Munster - the companies are telling us pretty plainly that we are incorrect with this rubbish that there's no point trying to get them to set up outside of Dublin.

Graham

keane2097 wrote: »

If the companies are successfully incentivised either directly or by investment to set up in places other than Dublin the 20-somethings who are essentially grunt-workers in these companies will move there.

Companies have been incentivised to do just that for decades and while there have been some remarkable successes the reality is it's just not going to be considered for the majority of MNCs.

That's not to say there's anything wrong with the small cities under discussion, it's just unrealistic to pretend they rank alongside London, Paris, Berlin, New York or Dublin as a location for most companies.

The_Conductor

keane2097 wrote: »

If the companies are successfully incentivised either directly or by investment to set up in places other than Dublin the 20-somethings who are essentially grunt-workers in these companies will move there. .

A significant number of the brexit jobs we are chasing- are not 'grunt jobs' that a 20'something can do though- and its all well and good saying bring a couple of hundred financial jobs to Galway and a host of grunt workers will follow them- its just not that simple.

Galway is not Frankfurt (nor should it try to ape Frankfurt or anywhere else). Dublin has a different dynamic than does any other Irish city (wholly ignoring its size and the synergies this generates).

I'd love to see Galway/Limerick/Cork- get a nice chunk of good well paying jobs (as opposed to 'grunt-work' as you put it)- but the fact of the matter is- its far easier to attract relatively unskilled grunt work to these locations- than it is high skilled posts (that said- we do have a remarkable pharmaceutical and chemical sector in Cork- that has no rival elsewhere in the country- and we have a few surprising hotspots (Killorglin anyone?) which feature companies where you'd least expect to find them.........

Alkers

The_Conductor wrote: »

Currently, at historically low interest rates.
How would you be sorted- if the retail rates went to 5-5.5%, from perhaps 3-3.5% today? This is not scaremongering- this is a reasonable assumption............

I'm aware it's not, our application was based on current rates +2.5% and it was still affordable, admittedly not as comfortably so as it is now but we could still afford the repayments without any lifestyle changes.

If people think the 3.5 times multiple it too generous, hardly anyone would be able to afford property in Dublin.

PokeHerKing

The_Conductor wrote:

A significant number of the brexit jobs we are chasing- are not 'grunt jobs' that a 20'something can do though- and its all well and good saying bring a couple of hundred financial jobs to Galway and a host of grunt workers will follow them- its just not that simple.

Actually they mostly are. They will be operational type jobs, sure they'll be VP, AVP positions but they're are still low level jobs.

Any financial companies relocating here because of brexit will be looking to hire local. We don't and won't have a trading floor over here. So there are no high fliers moving here due to brexit.

Cuddlesworth

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Actually they mostly are. They will be operational type jobs, sure they'll be VP, AVP positions but they're are still low level jobs.

Any financial companies relocating here because of brexit will be looking to hire local. We don't and won't have a trading floor over here. So there are no high fliers moving here due to brexit.

I think your confusing the usual companies with these, where 60% of the staff have their own office and they require 5 times the space in real estate alone.

Yes there are low paid grunts and no, they won't give a **** where they go. But the top end of the company makes the money and they get a say.