Property Market 2017

Bob24

theboringfox wrote: »

People coming to Ireland should be seen as great thing!

Well it really depends on what kind of people are coming, what for, and how the flow is managed. To stay on topic and as you correctly pointed out, not increasing the housing capacity while adding new potential renters/buyers onto the market will cause issues in the long term, but there are many others aspect to it which can make it good or bad.

jamesthepeach

Bob24 wrote: »

Well it really depends on what kind of people are coming, what for, and how the flow is managed. To stay on topic and as you correctly pointed out, not increasing the housing capacity while adding new potential renters/buyers onto the market will cause issues in the long term, but there are many others aspect to it which can make it good or bad.

I see reports on the papers yesterday. House prices rising faster than ever in all areas.

Zenify

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I see reports on the papers yesterday. House prices rising faster than ever in all areas.

could you please provide a link?

The_Conductor

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I see reports on the papers yesterday. House prices rising faster than ever in all areas.

No, they're not.
Read the report again.
New builds are powering ahead everywhere.
Second hand prices are lagging- but still increasing nationally.
Some areas of Dublin- including, counterintuitively, many high demand areas- have stagnated altogether.

Not everywhere is rising- indeed- the market has clearly stratified into a few different categories- its a very blinkered view to simply say 'house prices rising faster than ever in all areas'- its actually very inaccurate.

ligerdub

I also think that the term "are rising" about something which we only know "has risen" as opposed to a trend that will continue with certainty is dangerous thinking.

As someone who is in the market to buy I have a sense of trepidation either way. 1. That things are a bit "toppy" and that it seems unreasonable that middle of the road houses are selling for about 10 times an average gross salary (of an individual). 2. That there seems no real blockage for that price to increase given demand has been pent up for so long and they still aren't building enough to meet the current demand.

Basically to me it seems the prices are not that affordable, but are reasonably priced at the same time.

Open to correction on all that of course.

Is there any source where I could get specifics on the level of construction everywhere? i.e. a database

jamesthepeach

Zenify wrote: »

could you please provide a link?

http://jrnl.ie/3468916

http://www.sherryfitz.ie/news/2459

ligerdub

"The increase in the average values of new dwellings on a national level by 38% in the first quarter of this year points to a positive impact of the much-maligned “Help to Buy” scheme introduced by government in the last Budget, according to the estate agent."

Ummmmmm positive for who exactly? Real estate agents? Terrific.

jamesthepeach

ligerdub wrote: »

"The increase in the average values of new dwellings on a national level by 38% in the first quarter of this year points to a positive impact of the much-maligned “Help to Buy” scheme introduced by government in the last Budget, according to the estate agent."

Ummmmmm positive for who exactly? Real estate agents? Terrific.

While I wouldn't exactly call it positive news in the grand scheme of things. There are major economic problems ahead when you see property prices fall, so that's definitely not as good as people think.

But that help to buy scheme is a disaster all round for the market.

lawred2

ligerdub wrote: »

"The increase in the average values of new dwellings on a national level by 38% in the first quarter of this year points to a positive impact of the much-maligned “Help to Buy” scheme introduced by government in the last Budget, according to the estate agent."

Ummmmmm positive for who exactly? Real estate agents? Terrific.

Higher margins means more development. That's the way it works. Some people will see that as a positive.

But 38% is not sustainable and this help to but scheme needs to be wound up asap.

There must be some regions distorting that figure because new builds in Dublin are nowhere close to 38% more expensive this year than last.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Simon Coveney was a naive fool to think this wouldn't happen. Though it may have been his end game plan anyway. Either way, young first time buyers paying for the sins of the past.

jamesthepeach

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Simon Coveney was a naive fool to think this wouldn't happen. Though it may have been his end game plan anyway. Either way, young first time buyers paying for the sins of the past.

Sure he has destroyed every aspect of the property market he has touched. Rental and purchase.
And it's not like everybody doesn't know that any interference in the property market ALWAYS backfires. History tells us this.
Yet clowns like himself think they are different.

Wanderer78

Amaris Rich Clown wrote:

Simon Coveney was a naive fool to think this wouldn't happen. Though it may have been his end game plan anyway. Either way, young first time buyers paying for the sins of the past.

And/Or badly informed, our housing market will never be ok, our politicians and their advisers are lost. 'Market equilibrium', gimme a break!

The_Conductor

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Either way, young first time buyers paying for the sins of the past.

How do you make this out?
Second hand prices have not climbed like this- and indeed, in many places are actually falling.
First time buyers have been neatly corralled into the new build market.
Investors have been excluded from the market- and the numbers of landlords are falling.

The fly in the ointment- is the irrefutable fact that developers have simply incremented prices by the amount of the first-time-buyers grant- i.e. its a subsidy for developers, not for buyers. This is reflected in the manner in which second hand prices have seriously lagged the increases in new prices (and in some areas in Dublin are now actively in freefall).

Its not even a national market- its a series of different property markets- each doing their own thing.

The FTB scheme does need to be wound up asap- at very least to put everyone on a level pegging- and its shelving should have a moderating effect on further price rises.

The fact of the matter is- a 38% increase is nuts. No-one in the country- save the developers themselves- are getting a 38% increase in salary.

The big question is- how do you call a halt to stupid price rises for new builds- without destroying the market entirely (though its on course to self-combust of its own volition as it stands).

The_Conductor

jamesthepeach wrote: »

Sure he has destroyed every aspect of the property market he has touched. Rental and purchase.
And it's not like everybody doesn't know that any interference in the property market ALWAYS backfires. History tells us this.
Yet clowns like himself think they are different.

Its not going to bother him one iota- its someone else's problem now- that's how they work.

PokeHerKing

The_Conductor wrote:

How do you make this out? Second hand prices have not climbed like this- and indeed, in many places are actually falling. First time buyers have been neatly corralled into the new build market. Developers/investors have been excluded from the market- and the numbers of landlords are falling.

You keep saying this. Can you provide any evidence/data to back it up?

Anyone I know trying to buy a second hand home at the minute is still telling me it's a race to the top.

lawred2

The_Conductor wrote: »

How do you make this out?
Second hand prices have not climbed like this- and indeed, in many places are actually falling.
First time buyers have been neatly corralled into the new build market.
Investors have been excluded from the market- and the numbers of landlords are falling.

The fly in the ointment- is the irrefutable fact that developers have simply incremented prices by the amount of the first-time-buyers grant- i.e. its a subsidy for developers, not for buyers. This is reflected in the manner in which second hand prices have seriously lagged the increases in new prices (and in some areas in Dublin are now actively in freefall).

Its not even a national market- its a series of different property markets- each doing their own thing.

The FTB scheme does need to be wound up asap- at very least to put everyone on a level pegging- and its shelving should have a moderating effect on further price rises.

The fact of the matter is- a 38% increase is nuts. No-one in the country- save the developers themselves- are getting a 38% increase in salary.

The big question is- how do you call a halt to stupid price rises for new builds- without destroying the market entirely (though its on course to self-combust of its own volition as it stands).

which areas?

The_Conductor

PokeHerKing wrote: »

You keep saying this. Can you provide any evidence/data to back it up?

Anyone I know trying to buy a second hand home at the minute is still telling me it's a race to the top.

The only information to back this up- are the actual sale prices being achieved, as notified to propertypriceregister.ie

Choose an area- of your choice, and you can see the notified sales in the area of all residential properties.

This is based on actual prices as notified for stamp duty purposes, by solicitors- aka its probably as good as it gets- it is however, in arrears.

For reasonable analysis- the CSO do a monthly Stat Bank index- clearly showing the break down by type of property on a monthly basis. The last update was on the 7th of June. Link here

The Central Bank also publish statistics on mortgage applicants- neatly gives a break down between first time buyers and non-first-time-buyers. They are obliged to make a quarterly return with a commentary to the ECB on lending in the Irish market. Q1 would have been published towards the end of April, Q2 isn't due until end of July/early August. I was at a presentation on it- essentially a score of 3 represents a static lending environment. In Q4 2016 the FTBs had a score of 3.4 and the rest of the market of 3.1- giving an overall score of 3.25. In Q1 this leapt- for a FTB score of 3.85 and a rest of market score of 3.38- with an overall score of 3.6. I.e. lending grew for both segments of the residential market in Q1 2016- however, the FTB element leapt in a startling manner. This has been carried to the Autumn review by the Irish Central Bank- and is most probably going to result in a revision of First Time Buyer deposit requirements- wholly aside from anything the government itself does. I'll check and see if I can find an actual Central Bank publication detailing this for you- other than the press releases of course.

Yourself isit

ligerdub wrote: »

"The increase in the average values of new dwellings on a national level by 38% in the first quarter of this year points to a positive impact of the much-maligned “Help to Buy” scheme introduced by government in the last Budget, according to the estate agent."

Ummmmmm positive for who exactly? Real estate agents? Terrific.

Hilarious.

Bob24

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Simon Coveney was a naive fool to think this wouldn't happen. Though it may have been his end game plan anyway. Either way, young first time buyers paying for the sins of the past.

I'd say he knew it prerfectly (I understand senior civil servants clearly advised against the scheme, and I do assume Coveney is smart enough to understand what many people here and his staff could see clearly). It's just that he thought it was the right political posture for him at the time - in other words he was not trying to solve an issue but rather to convince a specific group of people that he was solving it.

The_Conductor

lawred2 wrote: »

which areas?

Achieved prices in some parts of South Dublin- while still at incredibly high levels (aka beyond the reach of most normal mortals)- are falling. Recent Stats- particularly in Dunlaoghaire Rathdown- highlight this.

If you use the property price register to look at achieved prices in other areas- particularly those that have a reasonable turnover of property- West Dublin - the Blanchardstown/Lucan/Clondalkin area for example- you can see that some mature estates are achieving lower second hand prices recently- I'm personally familiar with the Lucan market (its where I live), and the small estate I'm living in (on main street Lucan)- has seen small falls in asking prices for second hand 3 beds. New units- conversely- are making 80-100k more (this represents up to 40% more than the second hand prices).

The market is doing some really funny things at the moment.

Your best bet to showcase this- is to use the prices advised to propertypriceregister.ie and pick an area of your choice (try to go for one with obvious reasonable sales volumes)- and look at prices achieved over the last 18 months. Copy and paste the info into excel and you can make a nice graph to depict this.

LirW

Is this actually also true for more rural areas? I'm talking about the East and East midlands. The market there outside of obvious commuter towns seems to be very strange too. It's more expensive than ever (second hand but no boom-developments) but it seems they can't achieve the prices they really want.
It's said that the turnover time is around 8 weeks for rural 3 beds at the moment, but this can't be true.

The_Conductor

LirW wrote: »

Is this actually also true for more rural areas? I'm talking about the East and East midlands. The market there outside of obvious commuter towns seems to be very strange too. It's more expensive than ever (second hand but no boom-developments) but it seems they can't achieve the prices they really want.
It's said that the turnover time is around 8 weeks for rural 3 beds at the moment, but this can't be true.

Do you mean sellers have unrealistic expectations and prices are set at too high a level?

LirW

Yes and no, part of this. But you mentioned how funny the second-hand market is acting at the moment. I genuinely have no idea if this is the case too for areas outside of Dublin and it would be interesting. Also where is this market heading? In some parts of the East you do have nice rural houses sitting on the market forever because... I don't know, overpriced or whatever.

draiochtanois

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The_Conductor

draiochtanois wrote: »

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First time buyers have managed to inflate the new market- wholly aside from any different specs a new build has over a second hand property.

From a financial perspective- a FTB forfeits their 20k lumpsum- if they buy anything other than a new build. They also only need a 10% deposit whereas any other prospective purchaser needs a 20% deposit (or 30% for an investor).

I.e. limited supply of new builds- alongside a targeted insatiable appetite on the part of FTBs- means that new builds are being driven higher on financial grounds alone (wholly ignoring the scarcity factor).

The combination of a 20k lumpsum- and a 10% versus 20% deposit for other prospective purchasers- when bank multiples are applied- mean a FTB can buy a 300k property on a combined salary of 68,500, and only need a deposit of 10k- versus a non-FTB who needs a deposit of up to 60k and a combined salary of over 80k (without triggering the necessity for an exemption).

Arguably- the different deposit requirements for first time buyers are an even bigger factor in inflating this bubble- than is the 20k bribe (err- grant)- however, they do both have an obvious impact.

I don't think the fact that an older house may need remedial work- or doing up (or indeed complete gutting) has much bearing on their price. Hell- one particular property just off George's Street in Dunlaoghaire, that I looked at last year- sold for 800k- and pretty much had to be knocked down and rebuild- whereas a neighbouring property- in excellent condition- made 750k (sold 8 weeks prior to one which had to be demolished). I.e. the one that was in appalling condition- actually made more- than did the one in walk-in condition.

There is an air of irrationality back again- a lot of these things quite simply don't make sense- and its futile for you or I to try and rationalise them.

Is the secondhand market outside of Dublin mimicking the unusual Dublin movements? Closest approximation is probably the other cities- most notably Galway- and I'd suggest its about 12 months behind Dublin- Cork seems to be in its own world- but is affected by scarcity in the same manner as elsewhere (with the exception of its satellite towns- which have a bewildering wealth of vacant property).

So- there is an element of this elsewhere- but its not really good to say 'whats happening in Dublin- is happening elsewhere'- or the inverse- what is happening elsewhere- mirrors what happened in Dublin 12-18 months previous.

We don't have a 'national market' any more- we have a series of unique submarkets- which bear a relationship but not an approximation with one another.

LirW

There is an air of irrationality back again- a lot of these things quite simply don't make sense- and its futile for you or I to try and rationalise them.

Realised this as well. In our neighborhood a lot of people are selling up, there are extremely weird price jumps and falls in a matter of months. The houses all in the same kind of condition: elderly that move or died and still have their fancy 80's carpet, wallpaper and kitchen in there. These gaffs are on the market for a quite short period of time before snapped up.

Still though, the sub 300k market in Dublin is still under immense pressure (unless the area is really bad and West Dublin is an exemption as well). The average FTB still can't afford 3-bed huge parts of the south. There is an immense divide between Northside and southside, even tough the North is going nuts at the moment too (Strange things are happening in Santry).

I was actually having my eye on Portlaoise for a while, I really like the town, but the price jumps there are mad while same commutable distance in Wexford is plummeting. It doesn't really make sense.

draiochtanois

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The_Conductor

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I should have phrased that differently- derelict is more what I had in mind........ I was down in Cork last week for a few days- and couldn't get over the number of properties on main streets in villages, boarded up, very obviously vacant for protracted periods of time etc etc. Obviously they're not habitable (immediately anyway)- but they could be renovated and brought back on stream again- a hell of a lot faster than new properties built (and without the need for fully planning permissions etc).

pilly

The_Conductor wrote: »

I should have phrased that differently- derelict is more what I had in mind........ I was down in Cork last week for a few days- and couldn't get over the number of properties on main streets in villages, boarded up, very obviously vacant for protracted periods of time etc etc. Obviously they're not habitable (immediately anyway)- but they could be renovated and brought back on stream again- a hell of a lot faster than new properties built (and without the need for fully planning permissions etc).

Depends what part of Cork you're in but I agree, the town closest to me has many buildings empty, however a lot of them are commercial but could have flats upstairs in them. Part of the problem is the boom has not benefitted small towns and villages as much as the cities so commercial properties tend to lie idle for a long time. A lot of these once had flats upstairs.

jamesthepeach

pilly wrote: »

Depends what part of Cork you're in but I agree, the town closest to me has many buildings empty, however a lot of them are commercial but could have flats upstairs in them. Part of the problem is the boom has not benefitted small towns and villages as much as the cities so commercial properties tend to lie idle for a long time. A lot of these once had flats upstairs.

No business wants tenants above them who might be pri1cks and can't be evicted. So don't expect businesses to be rushing to let their upstairs to tenants.