Property Market 2017

Bob24

The_Conductor wrote: »

Lots of people get out at Heuston- and make their own way into the city centre- to avoid Busarus/Connolly- adding 20-30 minutes to their journeys- because they feel safer doing so. I can think of 5 or 6 colleagues who do this- without thinking very hard.

I'm not trying to argue or anything but I have been walking on Talbot street, Amien street, and through Connolly station for a few years on my way to work and back home and have never felt unsafe or physically threatened at least during these peek hours when there are a lot of commuters around (I would be cautious not to take out my phone too much though, and less busy streets such as Foley street are a different story - I would definitely avoid it in the winter when it gets dark early and there aren't many people around).

Strange how different perceptions can be.

Mickiemcfist

Bob24 wrote: »

I definitly understand not being a fan of the area (I work around there), but being allergic to it to the point of not using the station even if it saves 20 minutes and several euros on your journey to work is taking it to another level!

I have a parking spot in the office in the ifsc so it works out cheaper than most public transport. No Delays, no strikes, no walking in the rain, no cold mornings, no antisocial behavior in public transport. I've never even considered any other way. If I didn't have the free parking space I would have to get the bus/train but until that point I don't see the benefit.

Mickiemcfist

Bob24 wrote: »

I'm not trying to argue or anything but I have been walking on Talbot street, Amien street, and through Connolly station for a few years on my way to work and back home and have never felt unsafe or physically threatened at least during these peek hours when there are a lot of commuters around (I would be cautious not to take out my phone too much though, and less busy streets such as Foley street are a different - I would definitely avoid it in the winter when it gets dark early and there aren't many people around).

Strange how different perceptions can be.

I know of 3 people first hand that have been mugged in the area after work. It's just a not very nice, dirty area with drunks & junkies & a severe lack of policing vs the amount of people there. If you have to be cautious of taking out your phone, then in my opinion it's not somewhere id like to be. I'm just more of a suburban/country person & I guess not used to that.

Bob24

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

I'm just more of a suburban/country person & I guess not used to that.

No-one should have to get used to anti-social behaviour or getting mugged if you ask me ;-)

Anyway it's a bit off-topic so won't develop further but while I definitely see many of the issues you are mentioning and agree it not a very pleasant area (I wouldn't live there), I don't feel the safety threat as long as I remain on the busy streets and overall my morning walk to the office is fairly pleasant.

Samuel T. Cogley

Bob24 wrote: »

Strange how different perceptions can be.

Not wanting to argue the point either but I second this! Even in the same person; me! When I lived down from Bridgefoot Street almost nothing phased me in Dublin, now (and I'm not in a posh area by any stretch!) I'm in the suburbs, my tolerance has dropped right off for junkies and various other ne're-do-wells! Just off the DART and some lad gets on with two spray cans out of his mind on gas, previously it wouldn't have phased me now there was some definite clenching!

Weird how things change.

PhiliousPhogg

I am looking through available data going back to the boom, and compared the Myhome.ie and Daft reports (asking prices) on Dublin residential prices against the CSO data (actual sale prices). Asking prices on Myhome and Daft reports appear to have lagged actual sales both on the way down during the crash and also now on the way up since.

Shown in graph attached. I had to adjust the Daft and Myhome values to match the CSO index value (all 3 being equal at Q1 2006).

My only thoughts are that sellers were holding out for higher prices on the way down during the crash but forced to eventually accept lower deals (entirely logical), and now sellers (unwittingly ?) or RE agents (deliberately ?) are undercooking prices on the way back up. There seems to be quite a difference going back to 2014 so I feel it could be the RE agents at work (also I think the really undercook AMVs for auctions).

So my takeaway is to read more into CSO values than the property website reports. CSO only shows data up to April, but those 4 months show very little increases in prices in the 4 mths YTD. (note I'm looking at Dublin as a whole, and Conductor I have read your thoughts on the sub market breakdowns).

To check my calcs I checked current values compared to peak in each report: CSO shows current prices at 68% of peak (report here), Myhome showing 59% (report here - refer to page 21) and Daft showing 64% (report here - refer to page 7).

myshirt

What do people think about the removal of PPR relief as part of the solution to the crisis?

Zenify

myshirt wrote: »

What do people think about the removal of PPR relief as part of the solution to the crisis?

How do you think that will help?

The_Conductor

myshirt wrote: »

What do people think about the removal of PPR relief as part of the solution to the crisis?

What are your thoughts on this?
If you remove PPR relief- and tax the CG without a relief- you pull the rug out from under everyone who bought an initial property (call it a starter home- like the media and indeed developers etc do)- and subsequently (after marriage- or if they have kids?) find that the property they bought no longer suits their needs.

We have almost a quarter million households living in accommodation that doesn't suit their needs (according to the initial CSO stats released as a result of census analysis). Apparently there are 80,000 owner occupiers in this cohort (still). So- you have 80,000 households, averaging 2.8 children currently owner occupiers living in unsuitable accommodation- including the adults in the households thats roughly 400,000 people- you'd be condemning to living in cramped and unsuitable accommodation- and as they're in owner occupied units- they don't feature on the radar of government or any do-gooders........

frefrefre

PhiliousPhogg wrote: »

I am looking through available data going back to the boom, and compared the Myhome.ie and Daft reports (asking prices) on Dublin residential prices against the CSO data (actual sale prices). Asking prices on Myhome and Daft reports appear to have lagged actual sales both on the way down during the crash and also now on the way up since.

Shown in graph attached. I had to adjust the Daft and Myhome values to match the CSO index value (all 3 being equal at Q1 2006).

My only thoughts are that sellers were holding out for higher prices on the way down during the crash but forced to eventually accept lower deals (entirely logical), and now sellers (unwittingly ?) or RE agents (deliberately ?) are undercooking prices on the way back up. There seems to be quite a difference going back to 2014 so I feel it could be the RE agents at work (also I think the really undercook AMVs for auctions).

So my takeaway is to read more into CSO values than the property website reports. CSO only shows data up to April, but those 4 months show very little increases in prices in the 4 mths YTD. (note I'm looking at Dublin as a whole, and Conductor I have read your thoughts on the sub market breakdowns).

To check my calcs I checked current values compared to peak in each report: CSO shows current prices at 68% of peak (report here), Myhome showing 59% (report here - refer to page 21) and Daft showing 64% (report here - refer to page 7).

Thank you for your analysis.
Can I ask what you project over the next 3-5 years? I'm reading commentators saying we’re set to have price rises for 10 years and houses are increasing in value by 5K a month (I don't know if that's an average over the whole country or just Dublin).
However, David McWilliams sounded caution in an article on possible interest rate rises which could hit those who are highly leveraged and couples with the still high mortgage arrears. Couple this with Brexit uncertainty, second hand dwelling still not moving and significant amounts of empty units across the country, I'm still sceptical of the rapid price inflation continuing.
Thoughts?

Cyrus

frefrefre wrote: »

Thank you for your analysis.
Can I ask what you project over the next 3-5 years? I'm reading commentators saying we’re set to have price rises for 10 years and houses are increasing in value by 5K a month (I don't know if that's an average over the whole country or just Dublin).
However, David McWilliams sounded caution in an article on possible interest rate rises which could hit those who are highly leveraged and couples with the still high mortgage arrears. Couple this with Brexit uncertainty, second hand dwelling still not moving and significant amounts of empty units across the country, I'm still sceptical of the rapid price inflation continuing.
Thoughts?

there are empty units where people dont want to live, theres a shortage of units where they do, as long as that persists prices will continue to creep upwards. Second houses are selling fine in desirable areas.

mloc123

Cyrus wrote: »

there are empty units where people dont want to live, theres a shortage of units where they do, as long as that persists prices will continue to creep upwards. Second houses are selling fine in desirable areas.

To me the "second hand houses are not moving" isn't universally true.. at least in North kildare. At the moment on average second hand 3 bed semis are going sale agreed within 2 weeks in Maynooth, Leixlip, Celbridge etc... But I think a big part of that is due to lack of new builds.

Bob24

frefrefre wrote: »

Thank you for your analysis.
Can I ask what you project over the next 3-5 years? I'm reading commentators saying we’re set to have price rises for 10 years and houses are increasing in value by 5K a month (I don't know if that's an average over the whole country or just Dublin).
However, David McWilliams sounded caution in an article on possible interest rate rises which could hit those who are highly leveraged and couples with the still high mortgage arrears. Couple this with Brexit uncertainty, second hand dwelling still not moving and significant amounts of empty units across the country, I'm still sceptical of the rapid price inflation continuing.
Thoughts?

I think interest rates could be a big thing. If there was a sharp increase it will mechanically put some people who are still struggling with mortgages into arrears, and reduce the budget of prospective buyers.

But having said that, don't ask for my prediction on what will happen with the rates, more likely than not they will rise in the next 5 years but none can be sure or now a steep the rise might be.

mloc123

PhiliousPhogg wrote: »

I am looking through available data going back to the boom, and compared the Myhome.ie and Daft reports (asking prices) on Dublin residential prices against the CSO data (actual sale prices). Asking prices on Myhome and Daft reports appear to have lagged actual sales both on the way down during the crash and also now on the way up since.

Shown in graph attached. I had to adjust the Daft and Myhome values to match the CSO index value (all 3 being equal at Q1 2006).

My only thoughts are that sellers were holding out for higher prices on the way down during the crash but forced to eventually accept lower deals (entirely logical), and now sellers (unwittingly ?) or RE agents (deliberately ?) are undercooking prices on the way back up. There seems to be quite a difference going back to 2014 so I feel it could be the RE agents at work (also I think the really undercook AMVs for auctions).

So my takeaway is to read more into CSO values than the property website reports. CSO only shows data up to April, but those 4 months show very little increases in prices in the 4 mths YTD. (note I'm looking at Dublin as a whole, and Conductor I have read your thoughts on the sub market breakdowns).

To check my calcs I checked current values compared to peak in each report: CSO shows current prices at 68% of peak (report here), Myhome showing 59% (report here - refer to page 21) and Daft showing 64% (report here - refer to page 7).

Early in the process of starting to sell our house but... All agents that I had come and value it etc.. all said to advertise it at least 20k under expected sale price.. there reasoning here was to get as many people in looking as possible with the hope that 3-4 will then bid.

frefrefre

mloc123 wrote: »

Cyrus wrote: »

there are empty units where people dont want to live, theres a shortage of units where they do, as long as that persists prices will continue to creep upwards. Second houses are selling fine in desirable areas.

To me the "second hand houses are not moving" isn't universally true.. at least in North kildare. At the moment on average second hand 3 bed semis are going sale agreed within 2 weeks in Maynooth, Leixlip, Celbridge etc... But I think a big part of that is due to lack of new builds.

I hear what you're both saying but as prices rise, more of these emptys will be put on the market and the supply/demand ratio could alter signifiantly, there's plenty of stock near urban centres too.
In regards to the second hand homes, I'm only going on what I've read in the broadsheets over the last few weeks, north Wicklow was one area mentioned were they were supposedly not moving as quickly as they perhaps should.
I fully expect a sharp uptake in this area though with prices rising so dramatically and being welcomed in most quarters.

frefrefre

Bob24 wrote: »

frefrefre wrote: »

Thank you for your analysis.
Can I ask what you project over the next 3-5 years? I'm reading commentators saying we’re set to have price rises for 10 years and houses are increasing in value by 5K a month (I don't know if that's an average over the whole country or just Dublin).
However, David McWilliams sounded caution in an article on possible interest rate rises which could hit those who are highly leveraged and couples with the still high mortgage arrears. Couple this with Brexit uncertainty, second hand dwelling still not moving and significant amounts of empty units across the country, I'm still sceptical of the rapid price inflation continuing.
Thoughts?

I think interest rates could be a big thing. If there was a sharp increase it will mechanically put some people who are still struggling with mortgages into arrears, and reduce the budget of prospective buyers.

But having said that, don't ask for my prediction on what will happen with the rates, more likely than not they will rise in the next 5 years but none can be sure or now a steep the rise might be.

Yes, I don't know if McWilliams was sounding a deliberate word of caution in amongst the almost manic reporting of 'price surges' and the general bubble like reporting. It's interesting that you here little in the way of questioning what we're doing again, I'm sure new buyers are stress tested but there's definitely a cohort of my generation just keeping their heads above board, significant rises in their mortgages would prove difficult and might affect prices across the board.

Cuddlesworth

PhiliousPhogg wrote: »

I am looking through available data going back to the boom, and compared the Myhome.ie and Daft reports (asking prices) on Dublin residential prices against the CSO data (actual sale prices). Asking prices on Myhome and Daft reports appear to have lagged actual sales both on the way down during the crash and also now on the way up since

I would have thought this was expected.

In a market with no demand and a fair bit of supply, price high so people can underbid and feel like they are getting a bargain.

In a market with no supply and a fair bit of demand, price low so people can bid against each other and feel like they were getting it above others.

Cyrus

frefrefre wrote: »

I hear what you're both saying but as prices rise, more of these emptys will be put on the market and the supply/demand ratio could alter signifiantly, there's plenty of stock near urban centres too.
In regards to the second hand homes, I'm only going on what I've read in the broadsheets over the last few weeks, north Wicklow was one area mentioned were they were supposedly not moving as quickly as they perhaps should.
I fully expect a sharp uptake in this area though with prices rising so dramatically and being welcomed in most quarters.

there aren't empties where people want to live though, people my settle for them if they are cheap enough but they are empty for a reason

Cuddlesworth

frefrefre wrote: »

Yes, I don't know if McWilliams was sounding a deliberate word of caution in amongst the almost manic reporting of 'price surges' and the general bubble like reporting. It's interesting that you here little in the way of questioning what we're doing again, I'm sure new buyers are stress tested but there's definitely a cohort of my generation just keeping their heads above board, significant rises in their mortgages would prove difficult and might affect prices across the board.

Some banks are straining against their leashes trying to give more money. Cash back offers, inclusion of bonus/payments into 3.5 times rule, minor checks done on "cash" from family. I'm not sure if the stress testing can really cover a drop in the economy again.

Bob24

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Some banks are straining against their leashes trying to give more money. Cash back offers, inclusion of bonus/payments into 3.5 times rule, minor checks done on "cash" from family. I'm not sure if the stress testing can really cover a drop in the economy again.

Not sure either. Especially since the previous backlog of distresssed borrowers hasn't been fully addressed yet.

Also it really depends what kind of increases we think are possible with interest rates. If we are talking 1% in the next five years it will have little impact. But if we think 3%, 4%, or more is possible (I have no idea if it is), then there would definitely be a significant impact.

mloc123

Payments are being stress tested to +2% at the moment? Which would leave rates at around 6%?

What was the highest that interest rates hitbin the last 10 years?

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

big syke

Recently bid on an ex council house in a council estate. I live on the road currently renting privately.

Ended up going for 2.2 times the price one on the same road last last year.

Guess who outbid everyone - SDCC.

The house was done to a decent standard but now the council have gone in and gutted the entire house and restored it to look like a council house. Apparently this is common practice.

SDCC have also had a winning bid on a house around the corner -again outbidding and paying above market price.

I have a few issues with this:
1. How can anyone expect to outbid a public organisation
2. They will put 5k(?) into restoring the house to suit social tenants and also grant the new tenants 3.5k to furnish the home
3. There are over 5k vacant homes in south Dublin. Surely the 280k + 220k spend on two homes plus the 10k
to gut them plus the 7k in grants for two families (circa 500k) could easily restore some of the derelict or vacant homes

pilly

big syke wrote: »

Recently bid on an ex council house in a council estate. I live on the road currently renting privately.

Ended up going for 2.2 times the price one on the same road last last year.

Guess who outbid everyone - SDCC.

The house was done to a decent standard but now the council have gone in and gutted the entire house and restored it to look like a council house. Apparently this is common practice.

SDCC have also had a winning bid on a house around the corner -again outbidding and paying above market price.

I have a few issues with this:
1. How can anyone expect to outbid a public organisation
2. They will put 5k(?) into restoring the house to suit social tenants and also grant the new tenants 3.5k to furnish the home
3. There are over 5k vacant homes in south Dublin. Surely the 250k + 220k spend on two homes plus the 10k
to gut them plus the 7k in grants for two families (circa 500k) could easily restore some of the derelict or vacant homes

What area was this in?

big syke

pilly wrote: »

What area was this in?

Tallaght.

Have also heard of the same happening in Clondalkin, Firhouse, Crumlin etc

pilly

big syke wrote: »

Tallaght.

Have also heard of the same happening in Clondalkin, Firhouse, Crumlin etc

The reason I ask is I've just been doing some research on how the prices are going in Tallaght and honestly they're not going for big money. Very few over 300k.

I saw a beautiful one for sale for 269k in Kiltipper and thought it looked amazing value.

big syke

pilly wrote: »

The reason I ask is I've just been doing some research on how the prices are going in Tallaght and honestly they're not going for big money. Very few over 300k.

I saw a beautiful one for sale for 269k in Kiltipper and thought it looked amazing value.

The cost is not my point. Average price was 150-180 and the council bought it for close to 280.

I am from Tallaght so know the area and house prices pretty well.

Where abouts in Kiltipper? Some areas like Marfield and Derpark are not great and for 269k it is expensive.

41 out of 108 places over 300k in D24.

http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/property-for-sale/dublin-24/?s%5Bmnp%5D=300000&s%5Badvanced%5D=1&searchSource=sale

dubrov

Surely they bought it at the price of the second highest bidder plus one increment. So this is pretty much market price.

Otherwise, you are suggesting something corrupt went on

big syke

dubrov wrote: »

Surely they bought it at the price of the second highest bidder plus one increment. So this is pretty much market price.

Otherwise, you are suggesting something corrupt went on

I was one of the two bidders and I know exactly what I bid on the property and what it went for.

My point still stands that for 250k+ how many vacant properties could be brought to habitable standards and given as social housing vs. one home that SDCC buys for the same amount.

pilly

big syke wrote: »

The cost is not my point. Average price was 150-180 and the council bought it for close to 280.

I am from Tallaght so know the area and house prices pretty well.

Where abouts in Kiltipper? Some areas like Marfield and Derpark are not great and for 269k it is expensive.

41 out of 108 places over 300k in D24.

http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/property-for-sale/dublin-24/?s%5Bmnp%5D=300000&s%5Badvanced%5D=1&searchSource=sale

I know Tallaght myself and don't think it's expensive at all. Nothing wrong with Marlfield.

I find it hard to believe that a house was priced at 180 and the council bought it for 280. Obviously it was priced at a lot more?

I understand you may be struggling but I think you're exaggerating the effect the council is having. The market is the market. Council don't just jump in at 100k more than the price.