Property Market 2017

rsynnott

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

I assume just G to start with, yesterdays sindo along with cutting motorway speeds to 110 :rolleyes:. All in the name of saving the planet. I suppose homeless people who take a long time to get anywhere cause less emissions.

These were proposals, in a big list of proposals, some quite far-fetched. If they did implement the BER rule, which seems dubious, I assume existing low-BER properties would be grandfathered in.

Bob24

Interesting analysis of the commercial property market: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2017/07/23/dublins-commercial-market-contingent-on-a-brexit-corporate-exodus

I knew things were going mad, but the chart comparing to 2007 and the comparison with German prices surprised me, and not in a good way.

Graham

'Analysis' is a rather generous description.

Yourself isit

Graham wrote: »

'Analysis' is a rather generous description.

What's particularly wrong with it?

rsynnott

Comparing our prices with similar rents in Germany, we see that Dublin is already massively more expensive.

[..]

In all German markets, vacancy rates are higher so that means there’s much more choice.

So, vacancy rates are higher. IE, Germany has too much office space, so it's not particularly surprising that it's cheaper than Dublin, which has not enough office space. While I do think that it is likely there is some sort of office building bubble at the moment, I'm not sure that article says anything very useful about it.

ligerdub

It's a blog in fairness, not a dissertation. It's more conceptual than anything else, and he does back it up with a degree of an argument.

McWilliams is normally a fairly pragmatic type of guy, he's not a particularly biased guy politically (as far as I know) and usually follows a logical path to arrive at his views.

His point makes a lot of sense I suspect.

I have a gripe on a couple of things though.

"Before we remind ourselves how this property story goes, let’s have a look at the facts: the glossy brochures are back, stockbrokers are packaging all sorts of property-related products to “investors”, the price of ad space in the property porn sections of the press is surging and of course the skyline is full of cranes and Armagh flags.

CBRE – a property-flogging outfit – tells us there are currently 31 office schemes under construction in Dublin, which is more than 380,000sqm in the pipeline. They tell us that more than 30% of this stock is already let. It also gushes that 44% of the office stock due for completion before the end of this year has already been pre-let. Meanwhile, agents tell us that prime office rents in the Dublin market stand at approximately €673 sqm."

1. Why use the quote marks around investors......they are investors!

2. I don't see anything wrong with what CBRE have stated so long as they are facts.

LiamoSail

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Well, if we've got a slow down happening... TBH with the cap gain exemption coming period coming to an end people will start selling. I reckon I'm in the racket for a few more years until the next boom. I think we're in for a serious slowdown in 2017*/2018 and a year of stagnation (at best).

*Q4 onwards

What makes you think that?

Henbabani

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

LirW wrote: »

Samuel, is it time for you to flip your 1bed now? :P

Well, if we've got a slow down happening... TBH with the cap gain exemption coming period coming to an end people will start selling. I reckon I'm in the racket for a few more years until the next boom. I think we're in for a serious slowdown in 2017*/2018 and a year of stagnation (at best).

*Q4 onwards

i agree with you, i can't see the prices going up much longer( i mean no more than another 10-15% max.)
probably people do learn from the last bubble and know whats a good price for a house and what isn't.
hope we gonna see this feelings in the next daft/myhome report.

Zenify

Henbabani wrote: »

probably people do learn from the last bubble and know whats a good price for a house and what isn't.
hope we gonna see this feelings in the next daft/myhome report.

I think some people have learned about a "good price for a house" but many haven't. unfortunately there are so many people bidding on a single house you are getting the "haven'ts" driving prices up against each other. I have stopped viewing properties because it is just so stupid.

jamesthepeach

Zenify wrote: »

I think some people have learned about a "good price for a house" but many haven't. unfortunately there are so many people bidding on a single house you are getting the "haven'ts" driving prices up against each other. I have stopped viewing properties because it is just so stupid.

These days it's about couples buying. At they moment there are a lot of couples who have saved substantial sums during the downturn while they wait to buy able to bid higher.
Still there are single people who couldn't buy no matter how much they saved now.couplimg up, as the human race does and pooling their buying power.
Dublin today has no place for the single income buyer. They will just get outbid.

Zenify

I do believe house prices will eventually stop rising, not from people's intelligence but central bank rules wich hopefully protect people from there own stupidity.

Samuel T. Cogley

Zenify wrote: »

I do believe house prices will eventually stop rising, not from people's intelligence but central bank rules wich hopefully protect people from there own stupidity.

Well... :pac:

Yes if there is no other source of money (bank of Mam and Da, Government bribes etc.) then perhaps. I think the CB also put a shot across the bows on exceptions and deposits IIRC. The problem is there will always be exception and always other sources of funds.

Samuel T. Cogley

LiamoSail wrote: »

What makes you think that?

- Massive inflation in the first few months.
- I've found the sentiments here to be quite informative and we've two reports of slow down (albeit one from me!) on the North and South of the city.
- People haven't been willing to start looking in working class areas as I predicted looking at the figures from Daft.
- Cap gains exemptions will start to kick in.
- RPZ where for three years, one would hope they have a plan for after that... I know LOL.
- Supply and use of the strategic planning what not are starting to ramp up.

All very unscientific and frankly I'll be delighted eitherway but I recon we'll have a more sensible full year change of 5-7% by the end of the year rather than the double digits we have now which means running near 0% for the rest of the year. 2018 will be pretty flat maybe even a slight downwards move of 1-2%. Again tealeaves.

jamesthepeach

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

- Massive inflation in the first few months.
- I've found the sentiments here to be quite informative and we've two reports of slow down (albeit one from me!) on the North and South of the city.
- People haven't been willing to start looking in working class areas as I predicted looking at the figures from Daft.
- Cap gains exemptions will start to kick in.
- RPZ where for three years, one would hope they have a plan for after that... I know LOL.
- Supply and use of the strategic planning what not are starting to ramp up.

All very unscientific and frankly I'll be delighted eitherway but I recon we'll have a more sensible full year change of 5-7% by the end of the year rather than the double digits we have now which means running near 0% for the rest of the year. 2018 will be pretty flat maybe even a slight downwards move of 1-2%. Again tealeaves.

I would be of the opinion that we are more likely to see double digit growth than not at this stage, but even at that I'm getting out because of the current environment for property investing.
The only reason I am keeping just one is that I got a great corporate let deal on it, so don't have to deal with the RTB and the mo eyes for it is very good. If that ever breaks down I'll sell it though.

Eli1

Following this thread closely. Noticing many price drops in Kildare region(2nd hand) Property not selling as quickly as before.

mloc123

Eli1 wrote: »

Following this thread closely. Noticing many price drops in Kildare region(2nd hand) Property not selling as quickly as before.

Keeping an eye on north east kildare myself for the lest 3-4 months and from what I see...

Secondhand 3 bed semis, advertised lower than they expect to sell for and usually going for a bit over asking (10-20k)... these are going agreed within 2-3 weeks for the most part but I have seen some with poorly planned extensions etc.. sitting for a long time.

Anything over 400k.. slower to shift, 'nice' ones are moving quickly while others are sitting for months and dropping asking prices. Pricing on some of the 500k+ houses seems on the optimistic side... with some that I would classify as 'dreamers'.

seamus

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Yes if there is no other source of money (bank of Mam and Da, Government bribes etc.) then perhaps. I think the CB also put a shot across the bows on exceptions and deposits IIRC. The problem is there will always be exception and always other sources of funds.

Investments and speculators are always the wildcard here.

If they see value, the prices will keep going up. The good news is that the previous crash and the bank lending rules means far less domestic "investors". In the last boom, anyone and everyone saw themselves as a future property millionaire and bought anything they could get financing for, no matter what or where it was. Those people are gone from this cycle.
And international investors aren't going to be buying a single 3-bed semi-D in Rathfarnham for their asset portfolio.

So while those looking to buy apartments might keep getting priced out by big investment landlords, we should see the prices of family homes start to top out.

Eli1 wrote: »

Following this thread closely. Noticing many price drops in Kildare region(2nd hand) Property not selling as quickly as before.

From my mates who are in the market, the prices are still rocketing up, bidding wars and ridiculous viewings of 40+ people are still happening in Dublin.

That said, I know of 3 separate people who've gone sale agreed in the last 2 weeks after months of viewings and many failed bids each. That might be just coincidence, or it could be an indicator that pressure is starting to drop off.

Rew

seamus wrote: »

That said, I know of 3 separate people who've gone sale agreed in the last 2 weeks after months of viewings and many failed bids each. That might be just coincidence, or it could be an indicator that pressure is starting to drop off.

Depends entirely on price and area, sold a house 3 years ago and its still the highest achieved for similar houses in the the estate. House near me now sold for €850+ next door got less then €700 and is only SA still, another in the same area cant get €700 asking. Many sub housing markets out there.

LiamoSail

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

- Massive inflation in the first few months.
- I've found the sentiments here to be quite informative and we've two reports of slow down (albeit one from me!) on the North and South of the city.
- People haven't been willing to start looking in working class areas as I predicted looking at the figures from Daft.
- Cap gains exemptions will start to kick in.
- RPZ where for three years, one would hope they have a plan for after that... I know LOL.
- Supply and use of the strategic planning what not are starting to ramp up.

All very unscientific and frankly I'll be delighted eitherway but I recon we'll have a more sensible full year change of 5-7% by the end of the year rather than the double digits we have now which means running near 0% for the rest of the year. 2018 will be pretty flat maybe even a slight downwards move of 1-2%. Again tealeaves.

Thanks for the reasoned reply, some interesting points

rsynnott

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

- People haven't been willing to start looking in working class areas as I predicted looking at the figures from Daft.

Are you talking about specific areas or working class areas in general? My impression would be that prices in traditionally working class areas close to the city centre have gone up a lot; more suburban ones less so.

frefrefre

Very interesting replies on this tread on the last page or two. I  honestly believe that a lot of casual observers such as yourselves can be 'ahead of the game' so to speak.
Listen, the next CSO figures will show property prices up over 10-15% on last year and the Sindo will have 100 articles on price surges and how wonderful it all is BUT there seems to be a theme to what a few of you are saying and maybe, just maybe the madness is sudsiding.
We shall see...

Rew

Funny market when there is a 105k in the difference between the selling price of these two:

https://www.lisney.com/sale/house-for-sale-in-woodford-saval-park-gardens-dalkey/14573
https://www.lisney.com/sale/house-for-sale-in-deanwater-saval-park-gardens-dalkey/14570

Cyrus

Rew wrote: »

Funny market when there is a 105k in the difference between the selling price of these two:

https://www.lisney.com/sale/house-for-sale-in-woodford-saval-park-gardens-dalkey/14573
https://www.lisney.com/sale/house-for-sale-in-deanwater-saval-park-gardens-dalkey/14570

i saw this on the pin

that looks very very odd to me, i was interest in woodford when it went up for sale, but didnt bother viewing as the bidding had already gone mad

for deanwater to go for less, this year, doesnt seem right (even though its a bit smaller)

anyway who knows :rolleyes:

Rew

Cyrus wrote: »

for deanwater to go for less, this year, doesnt seem right (even though its a bit smaller)

Wondered about the the specs and sq/m alright but if anything Deanwater seems to be better house, extra bathroom and extra reception room if Lisney are to be believed.

56 Saval Park Rd (which is smaller lower spec, bigger garden) was SA recently for €820k but the SA fell though twice no sure what its for now. The EA was quoting Woodford as the (partly) basis of valuation...

Cyrus

Rew wrote: »

Wondered about the the specs and sq/m alright but if anything Deanwater seems to be better house, extra bathroom and extra reception room if Lisney are to be believed.

56 Saval Park Rd (which is smaller lower spec, bigger garden) was SA recently for €820k but the SA fell though twice no sure what its for now. The EA was quoting Woodford as the (partly) basis of valuation...

my experience in blackrock, dalkey and killiney is that the premium charged on very average 1950s and 60s semi ds with large gardens is mind boggling.

Obviously you have the space to extend but by the time you are done your semi d has cost well over 1m.

i ended up buying a new build in the end.

TiNcAn

My experience thus far from the housing market in Dublin is that there is still no sign of it leveling off just yet. Prices are still going up and houses are typically 10-15% above asking. It is getting especially fierce in the 300k price range where I think most couples on a average wage would looking at. 

But my feeling is that this can't go on at the same rate for more than 12 months. The salaries are not there to support it and with the impending interest hike it will definitely take some steam out of the market. I would imagine that will take place within 12-18 months, but it will inevitably put more pressure on the rental market as less people can afford a house where they want to they will rent instead.

There is also another side to this rising prices is that buyers will compromise on there area and start buying in not so sought after areas (e.g. what would be buys in Raheny will buy in Edenmore). This will certainly cause a large change in the demographics in many areas.

Samuel T. Cogley

TiNcAn wrote: »

There is also another side to this rising prices is that buyers will compromise on there area and start buying in not so sought after areas (e.g. what would be buys in Raheny will buy in Edenmore). This will certainly cause a large change in the demographics in many areas.

I disagreed with this point a while back and raised it myself about a year/two years back. Personally I don't think people are moving into the 'less desirable' areas of D5/D12. I'm in Kilbarrack and while houses where being snapped up initially it was by the traditional demographic. Now that prices have hit 275K for a three bed (smaller ones at that) they're not shifting. I think that's been exacerbated by so many new builds just up the DART line.

Oddly enough two new builds in Kilbarrack on the old Briarfield House site sold for c.400-500K (~150Sqm) about a year or so back. I would recommend Kilbarrack/Edenmore, although with one or two caveats but people perceive the risks to be much higher buying somewhere like that.

Henbabani

with all that news that price will go up for more than 3-4 years, that's the moment i know that prices are going stabilize, at least.
No one that consider himself "business report" can't wrote this bull*** because prices aren't go always upwards.
i'm following daft for the last 4 months, i can say for sure that in the rent market 1 BDR apartments are going fast, but i saw more than 50 properties for sale in good prices, max 200k that still there for more than 4 months.
So maybe in 10 of them there's a issue, but not with 50 of them.

Bob24

Henbabani wrote: »

with all that news that price will go up for more than 3-4 years, that's the moment i know that prices are going stabilize, at least.
No one that consider himself "business report" can't wrote this bull*** because prices aren't go always upwards.
i'm following daft for the last 4 months, i can say for sure that in the rent market 1 BDR apartments are going fast, but i saw more than 50 properties for sale in good prices, max 200k that still there for more than 4 months.
So maybe in 10 of them there's a issue, but not with 50 of them.

It's been said before, but because there are some cheap ads on daft doesn't mean there are cheap houses available. Ads is just what they are, they could be misleading and you don't even know if there's a real house to sell behind them.

If you want aggregated high level data, look at the CSO report, and if you want to build your own experience of the situation on the ground you have to go to viewings and start bidding to see by yourself what's really going on behind daft ads.

Henbabani

Bob24 wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

with all that news that price will go up for more than 3-4 years, that's the moment i know that prices are going stabilize, at least.
No one that consider himself "business report" can't wrote this bull*** because prices aren't go always upwards.
i'm following daft for the last 4 months, i can say for sure that in the rent market 1 BDR apartments are going fast, but i saw more than 50 properties for sale in good prices, max 200k that still there for more than 4 months.
So maybe in 10 of them there's a issue, but not with 50 of them.

It's been said before, but because there are some cheap ads on daft doesn't mean there are cheap houses available. Ads is just what they are, they could be misleading and you don't even know if there's a real house to sell behind them.

If you want aggregated high level data, look at the CSO report, and if you want to build your own experience of the situation on the ground you have to go to viewings and start bidding to see by yourself what's really going on behind daft ads.

i definitely can't ignored the information you talked about, But there's a lot of properties sale under 200K in Dublin and even 2BDR apartments.
also, you can find plenty of 1BDR apartments for under 1200-1300, you can't ignore that either.
maybe, just maybe, some of them are scam, but if you read the newspapers you get really bad picture that looks like the interests are standing behind them.