Property Market 2017

Henbabani

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

Let's go by your way of looking on Dublin, if evertything is expensive, frustrating, shortage of supply, even dangerous if you want to save some money, why the demand is still in highest rate maybe ever?

Because that demand greatly outweighs the supply. Simple as that.

agree with that.
i guess we still need to wait and see what happens.
meanwhile i see on the facebook rent groups a lot of people start to answer to people who offer rooms for 800-1000 euro.
a good way to flood the problem, and i read about a 1,500 hotel rooms that will be done by the end of 2018.
I'ts definitely going to help with all these airbnb issue.

LirW

Regarding AirBnB, Dublin is an all-year destination, so you'd have a huge tourist influx all over the year. The reason why AirBnB is booming is that existing hotel rooms are very expensive and all middle class rooms are not worth their money really. Also the number of hotel rooms within the M50, where most visitors want to stay is quite short. Whenever I had family over visiting, they all would stay in AirBnB rooms because the value is so much better, most only need a room to sleep without much fuss - finding that in a hotel for a good rate is very difficult.
The other thing is that AirBnB is much more hassle free, because you're only taking short term lets, so there is no existing tenancy therefore the guests don't have the rights tenants do get after a 6 months period.

It very much depends on the price range the new rooms will be in to take off some pressure of this distressed market. A lot of people put hope into the new student accommodations that are being built all over Dublin. Until it turned out that their rates are horrifying (250 euro/week) so students will stay put on the private market.

Henbabani

LirW wrote: »

Regarding AirBnB, Dublin is an all-year destination, so you'd have a huge tourist influx all over the year. The reason why AirBnB is booming is that existing hotel rooms are very expensive and all middle class rooms are not worth their money really. Also the number of hotel rooms within the M50, where most visitors want to stay is quite short. Whenever I had family over visiting, they all would stay in AirBnB rooms because the value is so much better, most only need a room to sleep without much fuss - finding that in a hotel for a good rate is very difficult.
The other thing is that AirBnB is much more hassle free, because you're only taking short term lets, so there is no existing tenancy therefore the guests don't have the rights tenants do get after a 6 months period.

It very much depends on the price range the new rooms will be in to take off some pressure of this distressed market. A lot of people put hope into the new student accommodations that are being built all over Dublin. Until it turned out that their rates are horrifying (250 euro/week) so students will stay put on the private market.

agree with you point of view, but in the end, when theres another 1500-200 rooms empty, the hotels finally decrease the price and than people stay there because most of them are here for vacation and want to stay in hotel and feel in vacation.

LirW

Henbabani wrote: »

agree with you point of view, but in the end, when theres another 1500-200 rooms empty, the hotels finally decrease the price and than people stay there because most of them are here for vacation and want to stay in hotel and feel in vacation.

Unfortunately it's not that easy because even the demand for hotel rooms are very high. Airbnbs cater not only people on vacation but workers who stay for a few months time, people who arrive in Ireland and look for accommodation are AirBnB hopping.
Anecdotal evidence, I know a woman quite close to me who rents 2 rooms in her own home out via AirBnB and she told me she regularly gets requests from people wanting to stay for a few months time.

Basically for everything in Dublin, is it residential, rental or even holiday making there is a huge shortage of supply. Even with a a few more new builds, new beds and a handful of council housing this won't do because the supply is far far behind the demand for pretty much anything that provides a roof.

Samuel T. Cogley

LirW wrote: »

Unfortunately it's not that easy because even the demand for hotel rooms are very high. Airbnbs cater not only people on vacation but workers who stay for a few months time, people who arrive in Ireland and look for accommodation are AirBnB hopping.
Anecdotal evidence, I know a woman quite close to me who rents 2 rooms in her own home out via AirBnB and she told me she regularly gets requests from people wanting to stay for a few months time.

Basically for everything in Dublin, is it residential, rental or even holiday making there is a huge shortage of supply. Even with a a few more new builds, new beds and a handful of council housing this won't do because the supply is far far behind the demand for pretty much anything that provides a roof.

She's crazy to do it through AirBnB then, she might as well do it through RAR and not pay tax! Unless she's earning well in excess of €14K a year anyway... would have to be some location!

LirW

It's more the fact that she enjoys doing it because she meets so many different folks and wants people out of the house fairly quickly again. Also they have a house in France afaik and do not want a longer term commitment. It's really more of a hobby with some nice side cash.
Location is quite okay, it's Whitehall.

Bob24

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

She's crazy to do it through AirBnB then, she might as well do it through RAR and not pay tax! Unless she's earning well in excess of €14K a year anyway... would have to be some location!

By listing it on Airbnb she's probably attracting a different crowd willing to pay more (for exemple a professional relocating to Dublin who doesn't care about paying an expensive daily rate for weeks because their future employer covers the bill which they see as an alternative to a hotel), and she keeps away from many rental regulations.

As of probably easier to only rent the bedroom/bathroom with no access to the kitchen and living room if this is what she prefers.

Samuel T. Cogley

Bob24 wrote: »

By listing it on Airbnb she's probably attracting a different crowd willing to pay more (for exemple a professional relocating to Dublin who doesn't care about paying an expensive daily rate for weeks because their future employer covers the bill which they see as an alternative to a hotel), and she keeps away from many rental regulations.

As of probably easier to only rent the bedroom/bathroom with no access to the kitchen and living room if this is what she prefers.

The higher rate would be offset by tax. You also need to give access to a basic breakfast with AirBnB - clue being in the name :pac: the easiest way to do that is access to the kitchen. RAR has very little regulation, less than AirBnB.

I don't doubt she has her reasons, financial will not be one of them unless she's liable for tax anyway.

Henbabani

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

By listing it on Airbnb she's probably attracting a different crowd willing to pay more (for exemple a professional relocating to Dublin who doesn't care about paying an expensive daily rate for weeks because their future employer covers the bill which they see as an alternative to a hotel), and she keeps away from many rental regulations.

As of probably easier to only rent the bedroom/bathroom with no access to the kitchen and living room if this is what she prefers.

The higher rate would be offset by tax. You also need to give access to a basic breakfast with AirBnB - clue being in the name :pac: the easiest way to do that is access to the kitchen. RAR has very little regulation, less than AirBnB.

I don't doubt she has her reasons, financial will not be one of them unless she's liable for tax anyway.

just for the ones who don't know
what is RAR?
thank you

LirW

Rent a room-scheme.

draiochtanois

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Samuel T. Cogley

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Fair enough, when I looked into it I could have sworn it said to provide basic things for breakfast like cereal. I'd find it a tad odd if I wasn't allowed to go and make something to eat in the morning but I've only ever AirBnB'd an entire gaffe so I'll defer to the greater knowledge.

Bob24

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

The higher rate would be offset by tax. You also need to give access to a basic breakfast with AirBnB - clue being in the name :pac: the easiest way to do that is access to the kitchen. RAR has very little regulation, less than AirBnB.

I don't doubt she has her reasons, financial will not be one of them unless she's liable for tax anyway.

I think you'll find quite many ads only giving access to a room.

Also I have no experience doing it myself, but if I look at AirBNB prices in my area even assuming 66% occupancy and 40% tax, they seem to allow at least equivalent if not better profit than renting the room long term (and where I am located I'm pretty sure you can achieve close to 100% occupancy if you want to as demand is crazy). Basically for a room which would be 1000-1300 per month in the same building I see them advertised for 90-110 per day on Airbnb (110 gives access to the kitchen and living room).

Samuel T. Cogley

Bob24 wrote: »

I think you'll find quite many ads only giving access to a room.

Also I have no experience doing it myself, but if I look at AirBNB prices in my area even assuming 60% occupancy and 40% tax, they seem to allow at least equivalent if not better profit than renting the room long term (and where I am located I'm pretty sure you can achieve close to 100% occupancy if you want to as demand is crazy).

I understand your point of view but you'd have to charge 52% more to get the same income I just don't see that happening. For example in Kilbarrack a double room will rent for €600 per month, you'd have to get upwards of a grand a month for AirBnB or €30 odd a night with 100% occupancy plus all the associated hassle of being there etc.

City Centre a room can be over a grand a month, you'd need to attract €1500+ or €50 a day - dobale I suppose especially if you're going to do over the cap anyway. Still wouldn't want a small army of different people over the year but I suppose different strokes...

I've never had a tenant come and sit with us for any period of time in the livingroom, they'd be most welcome but they prefer to use the TV etc. in their own room.

Edit: Saw your edit, Jesus €90 a night. Okay fair enough.

draiochtanois

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Bob24

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Edit: Saw your edit, Jesus €90 a night. Okay fair enough.

Yeah it's mad I agree (so that we are on the same page, I'm talking one of the nicer blocks around the grand canal square).

On the other hand a friend of mine was attending an event at the convention centre and wanted to stay in the area a few months ago, and the cheapest hotel he could find was 170 per night on Cardiff lane - so those Airbnb rooms are still competitive.

Samuel T. Cogley

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah it's mad I agree (so that we are on the same page, I'm talking one of the nicer blocks around the grand canal square).

On the other hand a friend of mine was attending an event at the convention centre and wanted to stay in the area a few months ago, and the cheapest hotel he could find was 170 per night on Cardiff lane - so those Airbnb rooms are still competitive.

To be fair I can see where it's worth doing where RAR would bring in over 14K anyway. I didn't realise it was quite so lucrative though. Put's my stays in a five star hotel down in Co. Kilkenny into the absolute bargain basement category!

LirW

It's very unlikely to find a double room on Airbnb for around 30 a night in Dublin. They usually go for more but it really depends on the people. Loads of pensioners are renting rooms out on AirBnb simply because they can and they enjoy new company in the house, provide a breakfast and a bit of a chat.
For some of them it's not about business, it's more about trying something new. Even though it can be very hit and miss, my family members had all sorts of accommodation here, some amazing, some more on the basic side.

Bob24

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

To be fair I can see where it's worth doing where RAR would bring in over 14K anyway. I didn't realise it was quite so lucrative though. Put's my stays in a five star hotel down in Co. Kilkenny into the absolute bargain basement category!

Yeah I think the money is similar and it depends on whether you prefer a long term tenant or short term les (both can have positive and negative aspects depending on what you're looking for).

But yeah the Docklands are mad. Between the convention centre and all the international companies in the area, the limited number of hotels there can just name their price.

Edit: and just to add one thing: I'm heading to New-York at the end of the month and staying at a 4 star hotel next to the world trade centre will cost less that it does for a similar hotel in the Docklands. I was actually astonished when I realised that!

0gac3yjefb5sv7

I wonder do any market or economics experts have an idea of then the next fall in property market is likely to occur?

Bob24

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I wonder do any market or economics experts have an idea of then the next fall in property market is likely to occur?

Choose whether to believe them or not, but S&P see another 7% increase next year: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/s-p-sees-irish-home-price-rises-topping-eu-league-in-2017-1.3173485

I don't think anyone will call for a crash well in advance though. Getting a feel that there will be one is one thing, but predicting the timing seems very difficult.

uberwolf

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I wonder do any market or economics experts have an idea of then the next fall in property market is likely to occur?

a guess maybe, an idea less so. This is a supply/demand lead inflation. So an interruption to either would do it! Supply could overshoot (this could take a while and be localised) or demand could be disrupted by an external shock (early brexit indicators are to the contrary but we're exposed to all manner).

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Bob24 wrote: »

Choose whether to believe them or not, but S&P see another 7% increase next year: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/s-p-sees-irish-home-price-rises-topping-eu-league-in-2017-1.3173485

I don't think anyone will call for a crash well in advance though. Getting a feel that there will be one is one thing, but predicting the timing seems very difficult.

Would anyone suggest to buy now or hold off? May have been asked already!

Zenify

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Would anyone suggest to buy now or hold off? May have been asked already!

Nobody can answer that. However, here's my logic: there's no good deals out there at the moment. As soon as you've bought a house you have played your hand and you have lost. Hold onto your cards and you have options.

This is coming from someone who is currently living virtually rent free so it may not suit everyone.

Samuel T. Cogley

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Would anyone suggest to buy now or hold off? May have been asked already!

If you're looking in the sub 300K market there's the odd diamond in the rough.

quadrifoglio verde

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Would anyone suggest to buy now or hold off? May have been asked already!

Where are you now in your life?
If it's time to settle down and you can afford the mortgage on a place that you want to live in and can see yourself staying there for the foreseeable future then buying is a great option.

If you can see yourself needing a larger place in the next ten years or moving to some other part of the country or paying more than you can afford to pay, buying probably isn't the most recommended thing to do.

House prices will rise. They'll fall, they'll rise again and they'll fall. Just like rental prices. What remains constant through all of that is you'll need somewhere to live.
It's quite difficult to buy in at the bottom of the market, not just property but in any asset class.
However with property, when prices are falling or at the bottom, unless you're a sure bet to the bank, a mortgage is difficult to get.
In 2011 I tried to buy a 1 bed beside Guinness's. It was asking 90k. I could afford the repayments and I had the deposit. However I was in college and the bank said no. In hindsight it was quite close to the bottom of the market. Today I'd be sitting on a tidy paper profit, but I couldn't buy, even though I could afford it.
There was a reason why 1 bed apartments were cheap in 2011, no one else could either.

So personally, if you have found somewhere that you think you'll be happy living in well into the future and can afford the monthly repayments, buying isn't a bad option. Worst happens, it falls in value. However if it's somewhere that you're happy in and suits your needs, what big deal.

Henbabani

Bob24 wrote: »

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I wonder do any market or economics experts have an idea of then the next fall in property market is likely to occur?

Choose whether to believe them or not, but S&P see another 7% increase next year: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/s-p-sees-irish-home-price-rises-topping-eu-league-in-2017-1.3173485

I don't think anyone will call for a crash well in advance though. Getting a feel that there will be one is one thing, but predicting the timing seems very difficult.

theres two ways to look at that info, the positive one is to say there's only 8.5% increase this year and not 12-15% as the news papers in ireland predicted, and also in the next year the maximum increase that they expect is only 7%, so the decrease is going to happen.

jamesthepeach

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Fair enough, when I looked into it I could have sworn it said to provide basic things for breakfast like cereal. I'd find it a tad odd if I wasn't allowed to go and make something to eat in the morning but I've only ever AirBnB'd an entire gaffe so I'll defer to the greater knowledge.

Think of Airbnb as just a company name. BNB has absolutely nothing to do with the business model. Though some people who want it banned seem to be stuck on that.
They should change the name of the company, but I guess it's too big of a brand at this point.
Maybe AirB. . Or possibly just say airbnb stands for air, boat n bed

jamesthepeach

Zenify wrote: »

Nobody can answer that. However, here's my logic: there's no good deals out there at the moment. As soon as you've bought a house you have played your hand and you have lost. Hold onto your cards and you have options.

This is coming from someone who is currently living virtually rent free so it may not suit everyone.

I remember feeling sorry for all those who bought in 2006, 2007.
But as someone pointed out to me recently. They are half finished their mortgages now and most of them are on tracker and paying far less than someone buying a similar house now at a fraction of the price. Even those not on trackers are winning. So my view now is you buy when it suits you and don't ever try to time a market.

Bob24

Henbabani wrote: »

theres two ways to look at that info, the positive one is to say there's only 8.5% increase this year and not 12-15% as the news papers in ireland predicted, and also in the next year the maximum increase that they expect is only 7%, so the decrease is going to happen.

Well ... decrease of the increase rate, but still fastest price increase in Europe.

At this stage it is unavoidable as prices can't keep increasing 10% per year forever. But the question is: are we going to see 5%+ increases for another few years, will the market stabilise, or will it crash?

A stabilisation with small increase linked to inflation would be better for everyone in the long term, but this is the Irish property market so not sure I'm counting on it :-)