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Property Market 2017
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Wanderer78 wrote: »We can't keep living like this as a species, it's unhealthy for us, there's something fundamentally wrong with our thinking regarding these matters, winners and losers are effectively chosen by date of birth
I agree, globally. However I think we need to wrap our heads around the fact that economically affluent capital cities like Dublin are expensive places to live. Until the government reduces the cost of building we're going to be stuck in this situation where a very average house costs over 250K. That said that's not exactly crisis point for a couple if they've been sensible and saved since entering the workforce and delayed sprogs until they're settled. Personally I think our attitudes to saving is one of the biggest issues in Ireland, one doesn't even seem to be an adult until you're 30+.0 -
Whilst I agree that capital cities will naturally be more expensive in terms of Real Estate and some pick up in pricing was welcome in the Dublin region, I think otherwise you ignoring the fact that millenials have the game rigged against them. Prices are artificially high due to this FG government and our obsession with creating perceived wealth through high house prices.Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »Wanderer78 wrote: »We can't keep living like this as a species, it's unhealthy for us, there's something fundamentally wrong with our thinking regarding these matters, winners and losers are effectively chosen by date of birth
I agree, globally. However I think we need to wrap our heads around the fact that economically affluent capital cities like Dublin are expensive places to live. Until the government reduces the cost of building we're going to be stuck in this situation where a very average house costs over 250K. That said that's not exactly crisis point for a couple if they've been sensible and saved since entering the workforce and delayed sprogs until they're settled. Personally I think our attitudes to saving is one of the biggest issues in Ireland, one doesn't even seem to be an adult until you're 30+.
We have NAMA that sold off stock at rock bottom prices to the vulture funds, Parlon and the construction lobby being trusted on their figures in relation to unit construction and a feeble tax on vacant land which the developers can easily navigate without being penalised.
Prices aren't at their natural level because of the above factors and it serves no purpose apart from enriching the usual suspects. Once again, a generation who could be spending in other areas of the economy is being forced into needlessly excessive mortgage payments further hightened by our banks interest rates.
[font=Calibri, sans-serif]My parents bought a 4 bedroom house in Rathfarnham in the late 70's on one salary, not a starter home in the commuter belt for 300k. Enough of blaming today's young, the cause of our housing crises lie elsewhere[/font]0 -
I agree with most of that bar the font choice. :pac:0
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What type of house can a couple afford on a median household income with 1.5 people working?
That for me is a good yardstick.
Analyse it, at the moment you'd want something for 180-220. Not much in that space, but some nevertheless.
The real inequality comes into play when you analyse your actual typical first time buyer. Ballpark, they are dinks, 80k+ income, lived at home in Dublin, substantial deposit, were gifted money, and have familial wealth behind them. Some areas of Dublin are a closed shop now. Participation in an economy of opportunity is closed off, or at minimum there is a huge wall in front of the person not from Dun Laoghaire or Dalkey, through no fault of their own, and a lovely little help up for the other through no effort of their own.
That's why I do believe we need to drop inheritance tax reliefs and ensure we heavily tax gifts from prior generations to this. I.am not normally for this, but for Ireland it is justifiable when you consider how wealth was generated in this country and who pays the loans now.0 -
Is it time to start looking again at decentralisation? I know there was uproar previously but why can't we move some jobs down to Limerick or Waterford and at least give some people the choice of not having to take on these high mortages.What type of house can a couple afford on a median household income with 1.5 people working?
That for me is a good yardstick.
Analyse it, at the moment you'd want something for 180-220. Not much in that space, but some nevertheless.
The real inequality comes into play when you analyse your actual typical first time buyer. Ballpark, they are dinks, 80k+ income, lived at home in Dublin, substantial deposit, were gifted money, and have familial wealth behind them. Some areas of Dublin are a closed shop now. Participation in an economy of opportunity is closed off, or at minimum there is a huge wall in front of the person not from Dun Laoghaire or Dalkey, through no fault of their own, and a lovely little help up for the other through no effort of their own.
That's why I do believe we need to drop inheritance tax reliefs and ensure we heavily tax gifts from prior generations to this. I.am not normally for this, but for Ireland it is justifiable when you consider how wealth was generated in this country and who pays the loans now.
I think it's senseless for them and the wider economy to have so much tied up in mortgage repayments, other areas will inevitably suffer, drives me mad that this isn't addressed and it's why the next crash will affect us so badly, again.
People might say, especially some younger Dubs I know, that they'd never move 'down the country' but when they come back from their working sojourn in Sydney or San Francisco, it's Ashbourne, Dundalk or Newbridge they'll be able to afford to buy in, not on the green line Luas. Surely, there's other options with a shorter commute and more bang for your buck!0 -
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I'll keep that in mind for next time Sam!Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »I agree with most of that bar the font choice. :pac:0 -
Whilst I agree that capital cities will naturally be more expensive in terms of Real Estate and some pick up in pricing was welcome in the Dublin region, I think otherwise you ignoring the fact that millenials have the game rigged against them. Prices are artificially high due to this FG government and our obsession with creating perceived wealth through high house prices.
We have NAMA that sold off stock at rock bottom prices to the vulture funds, Parlon and the construction lobby being trusted on their figures in relation to unit construction and a feeble tax on vacant land which the developers can easily navigate without being penalised.
Prices aren't at their natural level because of the above factors and it serves no purpose apart from enriching the usual suspects. Once again, a generation who could be spending in other areas of the economy is being forced into needlessly excessive mortgage payments further hightened by our banks interest rates.
[font=Calibri, sans-serif]My parents bought a 4 bedroom house in Rathfarnham in the late 70's on one salary, not a starter home in the commuter belt for 300k. Enough of blaming today's young, the cause of our housing crises lie elsewhere[/font]
Keep the following in mind next time you watch Netflix or order a Uber: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2017/07/31/millennials-wages-devoured-by-their-own-beloved-technologies
Not the only one, but it is one of the major causes for what you are seeing an terms of dropping purchasing power of FTBs compared to a few decades ago (which btw I also mostly agree with bar the font ;-)).0 -
Whilst I agree that capital cities will naturally be more expensive in terms of Real Estate and some pick up in pricing was welcome in the Dublin region, I think otherwise you ignoring the fact that millenials have the game rigged against them. Prices are artificially high due to this FG government and our obsession with creating perceived wealth through high house prices.
We have NAMA that sold off stock at rock bottom prices to the vulture funds, Parlon and the construction lobby being trusted on their figures in relation to unit construction and a feeble tax on vacant land which the developers can easily navigate without being penalised.
Prices aren't at their natural level because of the above factors and it serves no purpose apart from enriching the usual suspects. Once again, a generation who could be spending in other areas of the economy is being forced into needlessly excessive mortgage payments further hightened by our banks interest rates.
[font=Calibri, sans-serif]My parents bought a 4 bedroom house in Rathfarnham in the late 70's on one salary, not a starter home in the commuter belt for 300k. Enough of blaming today's young, the cause of our housing crises lie elsewhere[/font]
What was the population in Dublin on the 70s?0 -
Me and my bleedin' font eh!Whilst I agree that capital cities will naturally be more expensive in terms of Real Estate and some pick up in pricing was welcome in the Dublin region, I think otherwise you ignoring the fact that millenials have the game rigged against them. Prices are artificially high due to this FG government and our obsession with creating perceived wealth through high house prices.
We have NAMA that sold off stock at rock bottom prices to the vulture funds, Parlon and the construction lobby being trusted on their figures in relation to unit construction and a feeble tax on vacant land which the developers can easily navigate without being penalised.
Prices aren't at their natural level because of the above factors and it serves no purpose apart from enriching the usual suspects. Once again, a generation who could be spending in other areas of the economy is being forced into needlessly excessive mortgage payments further hightened by our banks interest rates.
[font=Calibri, sans-serif]My parents bought a 4 bedroom house in Rathfarnham in the late 70's on one salary, not a starter home in the commuter belt for 300k. Enough of blaming today's young, the cause of our housing crises lie elsewhere[/font]
Keep the following in mind next time you watch Netflix or order a Uber: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2017/07/31/millennials-wages-devoured-by-their-own-beloved-technologies
Not the only one, but it is one of the major causes for what you are seeing an terms of dropping purchasing power of FTBs compared to a few decades ago (which btw I also mostly agree with bar the font ;-)).
I think McWilliams is a little simplistic there in terms of forming his argument. There's plenty of marketing/IT roles created with the likes of new organisations like Uber or Netflix and isn't is bloody marvellous that we allow these guys to bring their operations to Ireland bringing plenty of employment opportunities in trendy markeitn roles for our millenials in return for a sweet tax deal.
To expand further, look at Uber and it's impending destruction of the regular taxi industry. I can remember the taxi's before deregulation when you couldn't get one in Dublin city centre after midnight, certainly not if you were a bunch or young fellas with a few too many jars on you anyway. The point being, it's was a closed protected industry and now all we're seeing is it evolving and there's new opportunities which come with that.
The start up costs for an uber driver are probably cheaper than a regualr taxi and because of that, there's a greater degree of flexibility for the worker if that's something they desire.
Anecdotally, I also don't buy his line of a lack of secure work if you're suitably qualified. My two younger brothers, both in London have been offered plenty of intervierws for well paid engineering roles in Dublin. Naturally, they're finding the hysterical Indo coverage of our house price inflation ridiculous and will stay put and wait for the inevitable fall.0 -
A lot less than it is now naturally, still doesn't excuse the fact that there's plenty of land in and very near to the city that could be developed for residential needs and quickly at that. Absolutely no reason why we couldn't have a high rise area in the city centre too (around docklands perhaps) which would solve a lot of the supply issue but you'll forgive my suspicion that the reason this hasn't been agreed to is far less to do with asthetics than once again, keeping a lid on supply for the time being to keep the prices ticking upwards.Whilst I agree that capital cities will naturally be more expensive in terms of Real Estate and some pick up in pricing was welcome in the Dublin region, I think otherwise you ignoring the fact that millenials have the game rigged against them. Prices are artificially high due to this FG government and our obsession with creating perceived wealth through high house prices.
We have NAMA that sold off stock at rock bottom prices to the vulture funds, Parlon and the construction lobby being trusted on their figures in relation to unit construction and a feeble tax on vacant land which the developers can easily navigate without being penalised.
Prices aren't at their natural level because of the above factors and it serves no purpose apart from enriching the usual suspects. Once again, a generation who could be spending in other areas of the economy is being forced into needlessly excessive mortgage payments further hightened by our banks interest rates.
[font=Calibri, sans-serif]My parents bought a 4 bedroom house in Rathfarnham in the late 70's on one salary, not a starter home in the commuter belt for 300k. Enough of blaming today's young, the cause of our housing crises lie elsewhere[/font]
What was the population in Dublin on the 70s?0 -
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Not to mention that when there was one income per household prices reflected that.
It's a spiral.
People make more, houses cost more. People double up their incomes and it becomes the norm, houses cost more.
The only way to cut the rise in house prices is to cut out sections of the market that have the money to buy. The the sections not cut out can work away competition free.0 -
Me and my bleedin' font eh!
I think McWilliams is a little simplistic there in terms of forming his argument. There's plenty of marketing/IT roles created with the likes of new organisations like Uber or Netflix and isn't is bloody marvellous that we allow these guys to bring their operations to Ireland bringing plenty of employment opportunities in trendy markeitn roles for our millenials in return for a sweet tax deal.
The question is not how many jobs this mutation is creating (of course new companies will create new jobs). But rather how many jobs it is creating versus how many it is destroying (previous industrial revolutions have created at least as many jobs as they destroyed but some doubt it is still the case today).
If you take Uber as an exemple, within the next 10-20 years they'll almost for sure be using a fleet of automated cars all controlled by contralised global infrastructure and probably serviced by some type of robots rather than human mechanics. So you'll have a few thousand staff at a couple centralised locations to manage the network and do some planning/marketing, a few hundred engineers to design the cars and manage a heavily automatised production facility, and a few dozen maintance staff in each country to ensure smooth operates. All that will have replaced tens of millions of jobs globally not only for taxi drivers but also all these other middle men MacWilliams is taking about (people working for thausands if taxi companies in the world but not as drivers, mechanics, admin staff at garages, etc). So uber is clearly a massive job killer globally (I'm not condemning, just observing), and the questions is: for all these large scale net job destructors do we have a similarily-sized large scale net job creator?
But I won't expand more as it is a topic for a different forum.0 -
A lot less than it is now naturally, still doesn't excuse the fact that there's plenty of land in and very near to the city that could be developed for residential needs and quickly at that. Absolutely no reason why we couldn't have a high rise area in the city centre too (around docklands perhaps) which would solve a lot of the supply issue but you'll forgive my suspicion that the reason this hasn't been agreed to is far less to do with asthetics than once again, keeping a lid on supply for the time being to keep the prices ticking upwards.
I had to check, the population is almost double now what it was in the 70s. I guess higher density housing is a solution but... People here are generally fixated on getting a house, for the most part people do not want to raise families in an apartment?
Developers are sitting on land for sure, why wouldn't they? If I had the option to build and sell houses for 400k today or 500k in a year's time, I would sit it out.0 -
double postjamesthepeach wrote: »Not to mention that when there was one income per household prices reflected that.
It's a spiral.
People make more, houses cost more. People double up their incomes and it becomes the norm, houses cost more.0 -
Point taken but I'd offer that this is where we're going wrong to a degree though. A middle income earner should be able to afford something reasonable on thier own within striking distance of their work. More and more people are single nowadays, I fundamentally disagree that those people need to couple up to be able to buy a home. I may be sounding idealistic but I don't think restrictively high real estate prices seve us well as a society.jamesthepeach wrote: »Not to mention that when there was one income per household prices reflected that.
It's a spiral.
People make more, houses cost more. People double up their incomes and it becomes the norm, houses cost more.0 -
Good points.A lot less than it is now naturally, still doesn't excuse the fact that there's plenty of land in and very near to the city that could be developed for residential needs and quickly at that. Absolutely no reason why we couldn't have a high rise area in the city centre too (around docklands perhaps) which would solve a lot of the supply issue but you'll forgive my suspicion that the reason this hasn't been agreed to is far less to do with asthetics than once again, keeping a lid on supply for the time being to keep the prices ticking upwards.
I had to check, the population is almost double now what it was in the 70s. I guess higher density housing is a solution but... People here are generally fixated on getting a house, for the most part people do not want to raise families in an apartment?
Developers are sitting on land for sure, why wouldn't they? If I had the option to build and sell houses for 400k today or 500k in a year's time, I would sit it out.
In relation to apartments, they would serve more your young professional types, take them out of house shares in the burbs and free these up for families, the additional stock would hopefully cause downward pressure on the rents which again, I would welcome.
You're correct on the developers, why on earth shouldn't they maximise profit, that's what every business is entitled to do. However, our government must act in terms of the wider interest and after selling a lot of this land at knock down prices through the ill conceived NAMA, they need to step in heavily penalise land hoarding in the short term.
My point is really, regardless of population changes, increased household income and other such factors, we can still build reasonably prices accomodation in central Dublin and in plenty of other areas if the political will is there.0 -
Point taken but I'd offer that this is where we're going wrong to a degree though. A middle income earner should be able to afford something reasonable on thier own within striking distance of their work. More and more people are single nowadays, I fundamentally disagree that those people need to couple up to be able to buy a home. I may be sounding idealistic but I don't think restrictively high real estate prices seve us well as a society.
Frankly though, single people don't need three bedroom houses. A nice two bed apartment should suffice. If the norm at 25 was to buy this then at say 33 get married and start looking at houses, both partners would be bring equity thus making houses more affordable. If there is a reduction in property prices, one apartment can still be sold and one child still comfortably accommodated while things recover. I completely agree a single person should be able to purchase a home, just perhaps not a family home, sans family.
On striking distance, this is a major issue in Dublin. The infrastructure just isn't there forcing people into a fairly tight area. That's another thing that really needs to be addressed.0 -
Point taken but I'd offer that this is where we're going wrong to a degree though. A middle income earner should be able to afford something reasonable on thier own within striking distance of their work. More and more people are single nowadays, I fundamentally disagree that those people need to couple up to be able to buy a home. I may be sounding idealistic but I don't think restrictively high real estate prices seve us well as a society.
Well if you consider that Dublin is a decent ish European capital city you can but apartments for well under 200k in parts of Kildare that are within 25 miles of o Connell street.
I live in a two bedroom flat myself and consider it reasonable... & I paid more than 200k for it many moons ago.0 -
Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »Frankly though, single people don't need three bedroom houses. A nice two bed apartment should suffice. If the norm at 25 was to buy this then at say 33 get married and start looking at houses, both partners would be bring equity thus making houses more affordable. If there is a reduction in property prices, one apartment can still be sold and one child still comfortably accommodated while things recover. I completely agree a single person should be able to purchase a home, just perhaps not a family home, sans family.
Well, there will less equity if PPR relief goes
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Point taken but I'd offer that this is where we're going wrong to a degree though. A middle income earner should be able to afford something reasonable on thier own within striking distance of their work. More and more people are single nowadays, I fundamentally disagree that those people need to couple up to be able to buy a home. I may be sounding idealistic but I don't think restrictively high real estate prices seve us well as a society.
One middle income worker won't be able to compete with dual incomes. So they are always going to lose unless it's a house the dual incomes don't want.0 -
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Is it time to start looking again at decentralisation?
I know there was uproar previously but why can't we move some jobs down to Limerick or Waterford and at least give some people the choice of not having to take on these high mortages.
But decentralise what, to where?
In an international context- we only have one city with a sufficient critical mass to support many of the activities which I suspect you'd like to see decentralised. I recently viewed the presentation that was originally made to Intel- which succeeded in getting them to Leixlip- they patently refused to countenance moving 10 miles further down the road- their international staff wouldn't accept such a suggestion.
As for the civil service- less than a third of the civil service is actually in Dublin- contrary to what many people believe. We've had numerous waves of decentralisation of the civil and public sector over the past 40 years- most recently of course, Charlie McCreevy's abortive attempt to move it out of Dublin almost in its entirety.
Whether people like to accept it or not- we are a small, open country, with a considerable international workforce, on an international stage. While you might relish the opportunity of enticing a couple of hundred jobs to Limerick- believe you me- the IDA and the Department of Foreign Affairs- are fighting this battle every day of the week, trying to sell Ireland in general, and the regions in particular, to a sceptical international company base.I think it's senseless for them and the wider economy to have so much tied up in mortgage repayments, other areas will inevitably suffer, drives me mad that this isn't addressed and it's why the next crash will affect us so badly, again.
Well, yes- however, I'd argue that mortgage payments- and private sector debt in particular- is falling in absolute terms- and in a historical context, is not far removed from our historical averages. The elephant in the corner- that no-one is speaking of- is the 200+ billion in public debt- taken on during the downturn, which has to be both serviced and repaid over time. Its currently costing us just under 7 billion per annum to service it- if interest rates go up- day-to-day government expenditure will take yet another hit. We've made it patently obvious- we will sacrifice our grannies to pay our national debt- thats why we can borrow on the same terms as Germany- however, we owe just under twice as much per head of population- as Greece does- and we're at the number 2 level in the world (after Japan) for our population and absolute debt ratio (the US are no. 3).
Yes- mortgage debt is an issue- however, in order of importance- we have far worse sitting in front of us- only we choose not to talk of it.People might say, especially some younger Dubs I know, that they'd never move 'down the country' but when they come back from their working sojourn in Sydney or San Francisco, it's Ashbourne, Dundalk or Newbridge they'll be able to afford to buy in, not on the green line Luas. Surely, there's other options with a shorter commute and more bang for your buck!
Perhaps. Its easier to sell Ashbourne to a Dub- than it is Carrick-on-Shannon- even if Ashbourne is down the road- its still on public transport- and within 20 minutes of Mammy or family support. Its very well and good to say- move to Clare (or Galway- or Limerick- take your pick)- you'll get more bang for your buck. Prices aren't cheap in many of these areas though- I nearly had heart failure when I saw the prices that some residential property went for in Galway, Clare and Limerick recently. Also- its not fair to point at certain areas to try and highlight value- I'm sorry, but I wouldn't move my worst enemy to O'Malley Park and its general environs. Dublin has relative value in certain areas- and indeed, many previous 'bad' areas have undergone gentrification (or in some cases you have residents trying to pretend they're not really part of a certain area- often dropping Dublin 24 from their postcode, in favour of using 'Co. Dublin' instead.
The argument that you get better bang for your buck in Limerick (choosing a city at random)- is a bit like splitting straws. Limerick has reasonable and awful areas- same as Dublin- or any other city- and most of the places that are desireable and people actually want to live in- are not necessarily any cheaper than perfectly reasonable homes in Dublin- not to mention you're yanking people from their support networks- and many people put a very high value on being within reach of their Mammies. Trying to sell this to Dubs- based purely on 'getting more bang for your buck'- is a bit myopic- hell- you'd get more bang for your buck, in rural Portugal, work from home- have a wonderful climate- and a completely different lifestyle- but that isn't the point.
Rural Ireland is the tail wagging the dog- with respect of property at the moment. Our national property market is expected to grow by perhaps up to 12% this year- however, a disproportionate amount of this growth in prices- is outside of Dublin.
It looks increasingly unlikely that there will be much in the way of a Brexit dividend for Dublin or elsewhere- with the exception of a few notable firms who were here already (Citibank etc). Our lack of housing supply is stimi'ing demand in the greater Dublin region- which is where companies want to be based- because its where their multinational workforces want to be. It is hoped that if we get the EMA or the EBA here (and we really want the EMA)- that the government will build purpose built offices and residential accommodation for their staff- north of Dublin airport- and indeed, an undertaking to do so, is part of our sales strategy. Portugal are acknowledged to have torpedoed any hopes they have- by flipping their sales pitch from Lisbon to Porto (for political reasons)- as the international staff in these agencies are scoffing at the prospect of working in Porto- while they'd be happy and willing to consider Lisbon.
I don't think you fully comprehend just how little we are on the international stage- and while we might be able to make a case for Dublin- it is infinetly harder to make a commensurate case for Limerick, or Carrick-on-Shannon etc etc
One recent prospect for Limerick pulled out- when they saw our income tax regime- having decided it would be impossible to attract the calibre of staff they needed- with our higher tax rate kicking in @ 34k- and this was after they were offered all manner of subsidies- including office space, manufacturing capacity etc- gratis- it simply isn't enough- when you factor everything else into the equation- you need a very compelling reason to attract international companies to Limerick, or Carrick-on-Shannon- or elsewhere......... Its a hard sell.
Moving more of the civil service to Limericks sounds easier, in comparison- until you discover that the civil service was sprinkled like fairy dust around the country last time round- the whole concept of 'gateway' towns and the national spatial strategy- was ignored- to try and buy a few votes- and living with the consequences be damned.........0 -
Is there anywhere that sums up the active pipeline? And further sums up the amount of planning approved but not active?0
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Join Date:Posts: 30620
Is there anywhere that sums up the active pipeline? And further sums up the amount of planning approved but not active?
Not that I'm aware of- and from recent shenanigans in Kildare and Fingal Co. Co.s- I'm not sure the Minister himself has a handle on it........
Devolution of planning and other functions was seen as a good thing for local authorities and local communities- on the understanding that local people had a reasonable grasp of how to manage these things- unfortunately- that has been shown to be a pipe dream.
The government did merge three local authorities- the time is ripe to remove further functions from them and centralise them- given the size and population density of the country. It beggars belief that we devolve planning functions to 25 local authorities- three of whom have had decisions they green lighted overturned by the Minister (after numerous complaints to An Bord Pleanála- which didn't succeed in overturning them). The most egrerious of these- has to have been Sallins in Co. Kildare- however, they're simply the poster boy for the ills in how this is managed.
We critically need our planning laws revised- to include dumping the height restrictions in Dublin city and county- and a revision on density proposals for elsewhere- alongside an actual implementation of the stated policy on cracking down on one-off housing.
It is normal in most other countries- for farmers to live in local villages- and not on their holdings- indeed, its far from unusual for their holdings to be scattered over a wide area.
We have a lot to learn from others- meanwhile, the EU Commission are continuing to bring delegations from Poland, the current biggest recipient of structural funds (by a country mile) to Ireland- to show them the ill effects of poor planning legislation and implementation. Its a bit embarrassing- but hardly surprising.0 -
Is there anywhere that sums up the active pipeline? And further sums up the amount of planning approved but not active?
Has there being much said about the fact that building supply can't be turned on like a tap. Even if it's starting now the it will take 2/3 years to complete. Wonder will that help bring prices down in the medium term.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 30620
Has there being much said about the fact that building supply can't be turned on like a tap. Even if it's starting now the it will take 2/3 years to complete. Wonder will that help bring prices down in the medium term.
What do you define as the medium term?
The issue is not a supply of serviced sites- its a lack of skilled workers to construct units. We have the CIF in Australia, Saudi-Arabia and Poland- trying its damndest to persuade Irish and others- to come home to our building sites- and its a far harder sell than they ever imagined.
Its all well and good suggesting that we're ramping up- and will be dealing with constrained demand in 2-3 years- but unfortunately, that is optimistic in the extreme.
We haven't had *any* apprentices in the various trades- in the last 11 years- as in- none, whatsoever. The utter and total lack of skilled trades- is the hand-brake on the sector. Even the 10% sectoral wage increase the Minister signed off on- going on 3 months ago- hasn't made one iota of difference. We are not going to ramp up further in a 2-3 year period- to the extent that we will be fully satisfying demand.
We *may* (I suspect its not going to happen) hit 18k units this year- however, we need a minimum of 25k units just to stand still (never mind deal with the pentup demand).
At the moment- we are hostage to competing external demands- not least of which is Brexit- it could very well be the cases that any one of the competing external factors may inadvertantly torpedo the best of good intentions. Time will tell.0 -
God love McWilliams, he's still trying to make 'the Pope's Children' happen. It's not going to happen David.0
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Join Date:Posts: 30620
super_furry wrote: »God love McWilliams, he's still trying to make 'the Pope's Children' happen. It's not going to happen David.
People have remarkably short memories- spectacularly short memories..........0 -
@ The_Conductor,
I won't quote your detailed response it full and I can't multi-quote so I'll just try to respond to a few of your points here.
On only 30% of the civil service actually being in Dublin, I was certainly unaware of that and thought the figure would be much higher. I know McCreevey's decentralisation plan caused a lot of furore when it was floated and a certain amount of people would never leave the greater Dublin area but it happens in other countries, see the BBC moving to Salford which in turn, led to a knock on effect of other media organisations moving to that neck of the woods.
As for your point in relation to multi-nationals not wanting to move outside the pale due to the workers demands, surely that’s contradicted by 32,000 direct jobs with MNC's in Cork, or international organisations in Galway such as SAP, Boston Scientific or Apples proposed new data centre nearby in Athenry (all sourced from wiki).
There's also the case that if these companies bothered to research, they'd see that there's a fantastic quality of life in both Galway and Cork, plenty of international workers would be willing to work there, it's the cost of living of Dublin that would put them off more in my opinion.
As for the bang for your buck argument, real estate prices are still far cheaper in any of the cities outside Dublin and this is what I mean by it being a reasonable push factor. Take my wife and I, she's a teacher, roughly 50k salary, she would get that exact same wage in any other part of the country and if I could eventually get something similar or even a bit less salary wide, we would sell our Dublin property and get something a little bigger elsewhere, maybe even have another kid! Plenty in my situation would consider a move down to another urban area if the opportunity arose. I know there’s plenty that get ill at the thought of driving past Newlands Cross but that’s certainly not all of us.
Of course people would like to be near their families but as someone who's lived on as different continent with small children, you adapt and get on with things, grand parents shouldn't be leaned on as child rearers, or deposit givers for that matter.0 -
The_Conductor wrote: »...
It is normal in most other countries- for farmers to live in local villages- and not on their holdings- indeed, its far from unusual for their holdings to be scattered over a wide area.
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In what countries does this "normal" "most" pertain as I seem to have managed to miss them in my travels?0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 30620
In what countries does this "normal" "most" pertain as I seem to have managed to miss them in my travels?
I've worked in agriculture sectors in Denmark, Holland, Germany and Portugal- in various capacities down the years. It was most pronounced in Portugal- but obvious in the others. I found it to be quite surprising.0
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