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Property Market 2017
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There are a multitude of factors that cause bubbles.
They keep saying we are not in a bubble.
This is not true, yes, credit is somewhat controlled, however supply is being choked and this is driving prices to unsustainable levels ie a bubble0 -
i'm really not buing all these surveys based on daft information. "the prices going up"? i'm watching more than a year how many homes there's in Dublin area, 2 Bdr for max 200K, from last july it's still almost the same number, around 240 houses.
so if you can still find 240 properties for that price, he can't say we going to cross the boom price.
i think today more than in the last few years, the media "killing" the government and they are aware the problem. something is going to happend and i think we already close to the maximum prices. there's still almost 30% to rich the boom prices and i really can't see it happend, unless you rely on daft survey.
I know from talking to an EA that 2 beds new build apartments in Grand Canal Docks are going to be released in the coming weeks for around 650000. As far as I remember this is pretty much the price new builds in the area were selling for just before the crash. I think it's crazy prices for what you get but since I see some second hand ones in the nicer blocks there going for 580000 I believe that price for the new builds is realistic in terms of matching potential demand. It's only one specific area I know because I've been following it and not the whole market - but at least in there I don't think the situation of the market is being overhyped by the media.0 -
i'm really not buing all these surveys based on daft information. "the prices going up"? i'm watching more than a year how many homes there's in Dublin area, 2 Bdr for max 200K, from last july it's still almost the same number, around 240 houses.
so if you can still find 240 properties for that price, he can't say we going to cross the boom price.
i think today more than in the last few years, the media "killing" the government and they are aware the problem. something is going to happend and i think we already close to the maximum prices. there's still almost 30% to rich the boom prices and i really can't see it happend, unless you rely on daft survey.
You're watching the asking prices for a small subset of the overall property market. The asking prices you're observing in that subset don't particularly reflect the prices achieved across the entire market.0 -
http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/property-for-sale/?s[mnp]=25000&s[mxp]=200000&s[mnb]=2i'm really not buing all these surveys based on daft information. "the prices going up"? i'm watching more than a year how many homes there's in Dublin area, 2 Bdr for max 200K, from last july it's still almost the same number, around 240 houses.
so if you can still find 240 properties for that price, he can't say we going to cross the boom price.
i think today more than in the last few years, the media "killing" the government and they are aware the problem. something is going to happend and i think we already close to the maximum prices. there's still almost 30% to rich the boom prices and i really can't see it happend, unless you rely on daft survey.
I know from talking to an EA that 2 beds new build apartments in Grand Canal Docks are going to be released in the coming weeks for around 650000. As far as I remember this is pretty much the price new builds in the area were selling for just before the crash. I think it's crazy prices for what you get but since I see some second hand ones in the nicer blocks there going for 580000 I believe that price for the new builds is realistic in terms of matching potential demand. It's only one specific area I know because I've been following it and not the whole market - but at least in there I don't think the situation of the market is being overhyped by the media.
so all these houses are crap?0 -
like you i guess, i saw the information that half of the properties doesnt sell at the asking price, but it wrote there also there 50% of that half sell lower than the asking price.i'm really not buing all these surveys based on daft information. "the prices going up"? i'm watching more than a year how many homes there's in Dublin area, 2 Bdr for max 200K, from last july it's still almost the same number, around 240 houses.
so if you can still find 240 properties for that price, he can't say we going to cross the boom price.
i think today more than in the last few years, the media "killing" the government and they are aware the problem. something is going to happend and i think we already close to the maximum prices. there's still almost 30% to rich the boom prices and i really can't see it happend, unless you rely on daft survey.
You're watching the asking prices for a small subset of the overall property market. The asking prices you're observing in that subset don't particularly reflect the prices achieved across the entire market.0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 30620
http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/property-for-sale/?s[mnp]=25000&s[mxp]=200000&s[mnb]=2
so all these houses are crap?
They're not 'crap' as you put it- the areas, however, almost without exception, leave a lot to be desired.
People like to live in particular areas- the D22/D24 areas- that these predominantly feature- would not be somewhere that one would aspire to.
I'm not snobby- I went to school in Clondalkin (D22)- however, out of choice, it wouldn't be top of my list of places I'd like to live.........
You *can* get a 2 bed for under 200k- and 200k is a lot of money.
If you want to live in a particularly nice area though- you're not going to get a 2 bed for this money.
Also- those prices you're looking at- are 'asking' as opposed to achieved prices- its far from unusual for prices to go for 20-30 even 40% over asking. Then again- some don't.
www.propertypriceregister.ie gives you actual achieved prices for specific areas- along with actual addresses etc- so you can compare them to your Daft searches and see whats happening.0 -
like you i guess, i saw the information that half of the properties doesnt sell at the asking price, but it wrote there also there 50% of that half sell lower than the asking price.
Just to point out away from the dublin market, a house in galway which I looked at in 2012 for K290 was on sale again last month for K550. I couldn't believe it, but it's just gone sale agreed. This is galway not dublin, absolutely bonkers..0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 30620
Just to point out away from the dublin market, a house in galway which I looked at in 2012 for K290 was on sale again last month for K550. I couldn't believe it, but it's just gone sale agreed. This is galway not dublin, absolutely bonkers..
In all fairness- house prices in Galway have risen significantly higher than even Dublin prices- its not a good yardstick........0 -
Are you saying the rate of increases has been higher or the actual house prices are significantly higher than Dublin?The_Conductor wrote: »Just to point out away from the dublin market, a house in galway which I looked at in 2012 for K290 was on sale again last month for K550. I couldn't believe it, but it's just gone sale agreed. This is galway not dublin, absolutely bonkers..
In all fairness- house prices in Galway have risen significantly higher than even Dublin prices- its not a good yardstick........
I just had a look at Daft, 3 beds in Galway city. Very little over 400k, most sub 300k, that's nothing like East/South Dublin and North Kildare/Wicklow. I thought it looked refreshingly cheap in comparison, albeit with not a lot of stock.0 -
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Thnk you!The_Conductor wrote: »http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/property-for-sale/?s[mnp]=25000&s[mxp]=200000&s[mnb]=2
so all these houses are crap?
They're not 'crap' as you put it- the areas, however, almost without exception, leave a lot to be desired.
People like to live in particular areas- the D22/D24 areas- that these predominantly feature- would not be somewhere that one would aspire to.
I'm not snobby- I went to school in Clondalkin (D22)- however, out of choice, it wouldn't be top of my list of places I'd like to live.........
You *can* get a 2 bed for under 200k- and 200k is a lot of money.
If you want to live in a particularly nice area though- you're not going to get a 2 bed for this money.
Also- those prices you're looking at- are 'asking' as opposed to achieved prices- its far from unusual for prices to go for 20-30 even 40% over asking. Then again- some don't.
www.propertypriceregister.ie gives you actual achieved prices for specific areas- along with actual addresses etc- so you can compare them to your Daft searches and see whats happening.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 30620
Are you saying the rate of increases has been higher or the actual house prices are significantly higher than Dublin?
I just had a look at Daft, 3 beds in Galway city. Very little over 400k, most sub 300k, that's nothing like East/South Dublin and North Kildare/Wicklow. I thought it looked refreshingly cheap in comparison, albeit with not a lot of stock.
Pop 'Salthill' - or even 'Lochataile' into www.propertypriceregister.ie and prepare to be shocked...........
There are prices in several areas of Galway- which would give D4 a run for its money...........0 -
http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/property-for-sale/?s%5Bmnp]=25000&s[mxp]=200000&s[mnb]=2
so all these houses are crap?
No sure about these although the areas don't sound great (and until you view AND make an offer you don't even know if they are genuinely for sale).
But I guess my point was more that in an area I know (and which clearly is an expensive enough area) the prices for new builds are pretty much back to boom levels (assuming they apartments I mentioned do sell for the prices I was given, but I think they will), which is a bit scary :-s0 -
Some of these properties are in areas that you seriously don't wanna live. I'm talking about the "cars burned out, litter everywhere, kids on quads and horses having the green areas in bits" bad. I viewed a handful of houses in a few of these areas in the early days of the house hunt and called it a day pretty soon after that.
I think as someone considering relocating to Dublin and only having been here once or twice for short trips you should really face it that we have plenty of incredibly frustrated members here that have seen it all on their hunt for the dream house. That's not some made up anecdotes.
You'd be mad handing over 200k for living in an area where you'd have real troubles to re-sell because nobody wants to live there.0 -
im thinking of putting in an offer on a house near cherrywood. how do people see the development of the area over the next few years, impacting the market there?
what role do ye see social housing playing in this development?0 -
As our data set gets stronger and stronger, such as property price register, what do people think about putting a cap on the yield allowed from property as a mechanism to tackle the rental market?
Say EURIBOR + 2%, or a plain vanilla 4-5% ish.. If any landlord found to be charging above that yield (allowing for increases / decreases in property value of inflation or 2%, whichever is lower), they get fined?0 -
As our data set gets stronger and stronger, such as property price register, what do people think about putting a cap on the yield allowed from property as a mechanism to tackle the rental market?
Say EURIBOR + 2%, or a plain vanilla 4-5% ish.. If any landlord found to be charging above that yield (allowing for increases / decreases in property value of inflation or 2%, whichever is lower), they get fined?
It seems impractical as there is no easy way to unquestionably value all rental properties in the country to calculate the maximum rent amount for each of them according to the formulas you suggest (and only applying the rule to recently sold properties which are listed in the PPR would make very little sense).
And also (as a tenant) I don't think another mechanism to cap rents is what we need AT ALL.
What we need is more supply. Forcing landlords to charge less than they could will just lead to more and more "funny" situations whereby they find ways to work around the rules which don't work out in the tenants interest. It will also lead to the overall quality of rental properties reducing as landlords try to keep as much money as they can for themselves and cut corners on maintenance to compensate for the restrictions. And lastly it will not solve the rootcause of the issue (lack of supply) and create a rental market whereby those tenants who are sitting in a good property with a good landlord are well protected, and everybody else is extremely stressed as they know there is short supply and due to regulations limiting their income landlords are extremely picky so finding a good place is extremely challenging.
In short, I think it would actually make things worse for most stakeholders in the rental property market.0 -
That is already the case in the Irish rental market. I think most posters here would be the first to admit it is a wholly unprofessional, amateurish market, and Landlord's investing in, and increasing the quality of their properties, is a long way down the list of their priorities.It will also lead to the overall quality of rental properties reducing as landlords to to keep as much money as they can for themselves to compensate fro the restrictions.0 -
As our data set gets stronger and stronger, such as property price register, what do people think about putting a cap on the yield allowed from property as a mechanism to tackle the rental market?
Say EURIBOR + 2%, or a plain vanilla 4-5% ish.. If any landlord found to be charging above that yield (allowing for increases / decreases in property value of inflation or 2%, whichever is lower), they get fined?
That will work alright. If you don't want private landlords. The govt are doing a great job of getting g rid of them already too.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 30620
homerjay2005 wrote: »im thinking of putting in an offer on a house near cherrywood. how do people see the development of the area over the next few years, impacting the market there?
what role do ye see social housing playing in this development?
Social housing is proving to be a far bigger issue than the government or local authorities ever envisaged. Initially- it was suggested that if you had a straight 10% social housing units- in every single new development- and scattered throughout- that you'd do away with the ghettos of the 70s/80s/90s- and have reasonable well mixed estates, where all residents would be valued members of the community...........
Instead- we have the likes of South Lucan/Clonburris- which are gone well over their 10% quota- and are the new 'no-go' areas- with several Dublin bus routes terminating @ 6PM in the evening- akin to the story in Finglas and Tallaght...........
Essentially- mixing social housing in regular developments is all well and good- however, if a tenant/family go against the norms for the area (this could be running horses through housing estates or the likes of the recent serious issues with quads/ATVs terrorising residents (current tally, year to date- is 72 horses impounded in South Dublin Co. Co.- 14 of them in the K78 area)), and there is no reprecussion for the antisocial behaviour- it simply spirals- and this is what is happening..........
If antisocial people figure they'll never be evicted- as housing associations won't make them homeless- which is the case- you have a whole new problem. From antisocial estates- I can think of a half dozen from the 70s offhand without thinking too hard- we now have an entire SDZ which is a defacto no-go area........... This is nuts.
Vis-a-vis Cherrywood- honestly- I think the upside potential for the area is off the charts. Its on the Luas- and it has all manner of infrastructure coming on stream- ahead of the residential development (which is limited to 4,000 units). The developer (Hines) has carefully managed the roll-out of this- with a plan to dripfeed units onto the market- to test demand- ramping up production to the full 4,000 units. Initially it was thought it might take 6 years to complete the development- now, its thought 4 is a reasonable proposition.
The transport links alone- alongside the south Dublin location- mean this is a bit of a no-brainer..........
Yes- the social housing element of this- is a bit of a worry for prospective residents- however DLRD say most of the units will be for people who grew up in the area but have been priced out- and in addition- are following recently established protocol, and are not insisting that the units be integrated in the community- its thought they will be in large concurrent blocks at the front of each stage of the development.
At the end of the day- whether buying here is a good idea or not- depends on the stage in life you're in, where you see yourself going- and ultimately- how much they cost. If you contrast this development with the likes of Clonburris- where SDCC have had to take out a private contract with an organisation to manage all the stray horses they're rounding up- and their latest chain fences (this weekend) were destroyed in less than 24 hours- this is an issue with a greenfield site that you are quite simply not encountering with Cherrywood- despite its historic reputation.0 -
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In Italy there is a system which provides tax incentives to landlords if they set their rent according to an agreed formula - €XX/sqm per month, based on post code and average rents in the area, with an extra €X per month for each of a range of extras I.e. If it is Furnished, has an elevator, balcony, parking, doorman, garden etc. Contracts with the rent set according to the formula are registered and the landlord only pays 10% tax on the rent. Apartments can be inspected to prove the apartment has all the services which were included in the rental calculation.
What do people think about a similar system in Ireland?0 -
As our data set gets stronger and stronger, such as property price register, what do people think about putting a cap on the yield allowed from property as a mechanism to tackle the rental market?
Say EURIBOR + 2%, or a plain vanilla 4-5% ish.. If any landlord found to be charging above that yield (allowing for increases / decreases in property value of inflation or 2%, whichever is lower), they get fined?
I think your idea is utterly bonkers. Why not limit the return on all other forms of investment while you are at it? Tell Apple and Google and the rest that they can't make more than 5% profit a year.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 30620
I think your idea is utterly bonkers. Why not limit the return on all other forms of investment while you are at it? Tell Apple and Google and the rest that they can't make more than 5% profit a year.
Its not as bonkers as some of the schemes which are actively being discussed at the moment. The EU Council are exploring taxing multinationals as a set percentage of revenue in each jurisdiction in which they conduct business- the proposal is 5% of Revenue- and its being driven by both Paris and Berlin- in light of the uproar earlier this summer over Uber and Airbnb tax for 2016.
The Fed in the US circulated a paper over the summer proposing to remove debt as an allowable expense for all businesses- i.e. you can finance your business by whatsoever method you choose- however, if you choose to raise equity by issuing debt- it is not an allowable cost.
In an Irish context this would translate to a flatrate tax on business (its suggested of between 7-8%) and no interest relief or debt relief for any businesses.
At this stage- they are just proposals- and they require unanimous agreement- something that is unlikely with Ireland, The Netherlands and Luxembourg vehemently opposed- however, they are actively sitting around a table discussing these things..............0 -
The_Conductor wrote: »Social housing is proving to be a far bigger issue than the government or local authorities ever envisaged. Initially- it was suggested that if you had a straight 10% social housing units- in every single new development- and scattered throughout- that you'd do away with the ghettos of the 70s/80s/90s- and have reasonable well mixed estates, where all residents would be valued members of the community...........
Instead- we have the likes of South Lucan/Clonburris- which are gone well over their 10% quota- and are the new 'no-go' areas- with several Dublin bus routes terminating @ 6PM in the evening- akin to the story in Finglas and Tallaght...........
Essentially- mixing social housing in regular developments is all well and good- however, if a tenant/family go against the norms for the area (this could be running horses through housing estates or the likes of the recent serious issues with quads/ATVs terrorising residents (current tally, year to date- is 72 horses impounded in South Dublin Co. Co.- 14 of them in the K78 area)), and there is no reprecussion for the antisocial behaviour- it simply spirals- and this is what is happening..........
If antisocial people figure they'll never be evicted- as housing associations won't make them homeless- which is the case- you have a whole new problem. From antisocial estates- I can think of a half dozen from the 70s offhand without thinking too hard- we now have an entire SDZ which is a defacto no-go area........... This is nuts.
Vis-a-vis Cherrywood- honestly- I think the upside potential for the area is off the charts. Its on the Luas- and it has all manner of infrastructure coming on stream- ahead of the residential development (which is limited to 4,000 units). The developer (Hines) has carefully managed the roll-out of this- with a plan to dripfeed units onto the market- to test demand- ramping up production to the full 4,000 units. Initially it was thought it might take 6 years to complete the development- now, its thought 4 is a reasonable proposition.
The transport links alone- alongside the south Dublin location- mean this is a bit of a no-brainer..........
Yes- the social housing element of this- is a bit of a worry for prospective residents- however DLRD say most of the units will be for people who grew up in the area but have been priced out- and in addition- are following recently established protocol, and are not insisting that the units be integrated in the community- its thought they will be in large concurrent blocks at the front of each stage of the development.
At the end of the day- whether buying here is a good idea or not- depends on the stage in life you're in, where you see yourself going- and ultimately- how much they cost. If you contrast this development with the likes of Clonburris- where SDCC have had to take out a private contract with an organisation to manage all the stray horses they're rounding up- and their latest chain fences (this weekend) were destroyed in less than 24 hours- this is an issue with a greenfield site that you are quite simply not encountering with Cherrywood- despite its historic reputation.
social housing is a tricky one, the 10% thing was never workable IMO because developers were always going to try ands get out of it in more desirable areas.
Who in their right mind will pay 800k-1m for a house in an estate with social housing, its just never going to fly.
it would be better for the county councils to take the money and get social estates built, even if they want to build them in those areas to try and assimilate them. although i have to say personally i wouldnt advocate that but i can see arguments for it.0 -
I think your idea is utterly bonkers. Why not limit the return on all other forms of investment while you are at it? Tell Apple and Google and the rest that they can't make more than 5% profit a year.
I don't necessarily agree with the cap idea but it's far from utterly bonkers. Google / Apple aren't something that is a requirement for most people. Housing is a requirement and in your comparison would be more like electricity which is regulated on how much can be charged.
At this stage it's probably not in landlords interests to continue to up the price. We are at a high for rent prices, if you can't make a profit now then you probably never will and if landlords continue to up their prices despite them being this high already then the government will step in and put in caps as "the market" isn't working for housing.0 -
The_Conductor wrote: »Its not as bonkers as some of the schemes which are actively being discussed at the moment. The EU Council are exploring taxing multinationals as a set percentage of revenue in each jurisdiction in which they conduct business- the proposal is 5% of Revenue- and its being driven by both Paris and Berlin- in light of the uproar earlier this summer over Uber and Airbnb tax for 2016.
The Fed in the US circulated a paper over the summer proposing to remove debt as an allowable expense for all businesses- i.e. you can finance your business by whatsoever method you choose- however, if you choose to raise equity by issuing debt- it is not an allowable cost.
In an Irish context this would translate to a flatrate tax on business (its suggested of between 7-8%) and no interest relief or debt relief for any businesses.
At this stage- they are just proposals- and they require unanimous agreement- something that is unlikely with Ireland, The Netherlands and Luxembourg vehemently opposed- however, they are actively sitting around a table discussing these things..............
I have been arguing for several years that multinationals have so successfully rorted the taxation principle that they should be taxed on turnover where their declared profits were an obvious nonsense. There was a classic news article on Starbucks in the UK a couple years ago. The company had effectively not paid any tax for a decade or more as they were unprofitable and announced that they were planning on expanding by 200-300 new locations. You couldn't make it up. Even a cursory study of US multinationals tax shenanigans will show why any proposals to fix the broken system are far from bonkers. Decades overdue would be more like it.
As for the Fed, I agree with them also. Their position might have something to do with Apple having $106.8 B in debt, the financing of which is a tax deduction, while at the same time proudly declaring they have about $230 B of cash on hand. Of course it would all be a lot simpler if the US just forced their companies to pay an effective tax rate of 30%, whether or not they repatriate the funds.
The OECD is of the opinion that taxation avoided by multinationals is made up for by increased levels of taxes on everyone else.0 -
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The multi-nationals hardly invented tax avoidance... the British aristocracy have been at it for generations:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/sep/07/how-the-aristocracy-preserved-their-power?CMP=share_btn_fb0 -
There is bound to be a correction but its highly unlikely that there will be a crash.
Interesting point. There are 3 new development near by and one is selling 5k less that the other 2 its a little bit further out so that could be it they are also building bungalows something that has not happened in a long time. When the other developments launched they had the price public now on the second phrase its POA.
Something is happening but its hard to quantify it.0 -
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I don't necessarily agree with the cap idea but it's far from utterly bonkers. Google / Apple aren't something that is a requirement for most people. Housing is a requirement and in your comparison would be more like electricity which is regulated on how much can be charged.
At this stage it's probably not in landlords interests to continue to up the price. We are at a high for rent prices, if you can't make a profit now then you probably never will and if landlords continue to up their prices despite them being this high already then the government will step in and put in caps as "the market" isn't working for housing.
Rents are high because of lack of supply. If being a landlord was a very profitable enterprise then there ought to be a veritable flood of rental properties onto the market, whereas arguably the reverse is occurring.
The problem is government. Use any mapping tool and take a good look at Dublin satellite imagery. Count the number of massive golf-courses you see, what is the acreage of the Botanical gardens? Is that actually an enormous working farm I see next to DCU and Griffith Park?
There is no housing problem, just a government problem.0
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