Property Market 2017

jamesthepeach

Graham wrote: »

You may be willing to absolve the government and local authorities of their responsibility for accommodating the growth of our capital.

There are plenty of us that are not.

You are in for a long wait so.

OwlsZat

robp wrote: »

I am something of a heritage nut so I appreciate old Dublin more than most. But high rise is beautiful too and it can fit in too Dublin. The high rise of Sheikh Zayed road in Dubai is an example of beautiful modern high rise. Developing countries such as India or Indonesia are resourceful enough to make this happen in a big way, so we can be too.

I think everyone likes the historical buildings in Dublin. We should be a bit more honest in saying that the building's the English built are largely the best bits. What happened in the 1960s and 1970s is something we are being very slow to call a mistake and go and rectify. 
Instead of An Bord Pleanala being used as a rubber stamp review agency. They should be the ones working with the counsils in aggressively tackling the problem and being forced to come up with the solutions.

myshirt

I was reading through a planning file for a development in Baldoyle and my god the hoops you have to jump through and the time it takes to get anywhere is unreal. All these delays just tie up capital.

mel123

myshirt wrote: »

I was reading through a planning file for a development in Baldoyle and my god the hoops you have to jump through and the time it takes to get anywhere is unreal. All these delays just tie up capital.

All these hoops are the reason why most small to medium builders are no longer in the game, there is no money in it for them, and im not taking huge margins either

OwlsZat

Check out the new fast track planning process. Maximum cost of 80k and maximum consultation of 9 weeks. A great job. :ermm:

ArnieSilvia

I was thinking about the current property market (in Dublin context) and all I can see is that there's little hope to sort it out quickly on a mass scale therefore I don't think the prices will fall anytime soon.

Typical Irish solution is a house which takes space. Space in Dublin is expensive hence it'll never be cheap. Even if govt hand over the land it'll come at the cost of what else could be on that land (facilities, recreation and most importantly jobs). If that space is later required, it'll be expensive or impossible to get, hence resentment towards building more housing and so on and so on.

Even if new houses were built, there is no infrastructure to support that.

So (IMO) there won't be mass building of housing especially social as Irish revenue books are barely breaking even WITHOUT the cost of servicing the debt.

I saw how it's done in St. Nazarre and elsewhere in France and Europe - simple square apartment blocks which looked cheap to build and cheap to own. Not fancy, but functional. Nicer than rows of same terraced houses.

Problem is, Irish seem to have a problem with living in high density developments, not sure if it's because
- the proportion of aggressive people is very high in Dublin (ruining situation for everybody else)
- because Irish just can't live in bigger groups with other people (cultural problem)
- people who live in high density developments just think that they can do whatever they like and don't care about their neighbours (anti-social behaviour inherent to society or what)

(The above statements are just guesses for discussion, not meant to insult)

I'm genuinely confused about this because I perceive Irish as nice people, avoiding conflict, honest and genuine.

Ballymun example (being brought as a no-no for high rise) in a greater context (Europe) is unique. The carry on that went there would not take place in typical European society regardless if it was 100% social housing or not. Possibly because a lot of people living there, in most European countries would be simply locked up in jail - that would clear the situation a bit.

For reference, I lived in an apartment block abroad such as Ballymun ones (3 different ones) and it was perfect. People who lived there bought it though, it wasn't given for free by govt so everybody valued whatever they owned. No antisocial behaviour whatsoever. I currently live in semi-high density and no issues either although 95% of my neighbours aren't Irish.

Cuddlesworth

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

Ballymun example (being brought as a no-no for high rise) in a greater context (Europe) is unique. The carry on that went there would not take place in typical European society regardless if it was 100% social housing or not. Possibly because a lot of people living there, in most European countries would be simply locked up in jail - that would clear the situation a bit.

You seem to be missing some context here, Ballymun is a textbook example of what not to do to resolve housing issues. Its so textbook, our government was warned not to do it by other European country's before starting.

You do not build without infra and you do not lump social welfare in on top of each other.

sk8board

Sleepy wrote: »

Curious to see Fingal lagging seriously behind the rest of Dublin at 2.2% annual growth versus 6.9% in DLR and 10.7% in Dublin City.

I was curious about this too. The avg price might be lower than Dublin city, but its higher than the rest of Ireland avg, yet the price increases are nearly half that in the rest of Ireland in percentage terms.
Prices traditionally increase in dublin city first, and then ripple out through county dublin (incl Fingal) and then to the rest of Ireland.

Mickiemcfist

sk8board wrote: »

I was curious about this too. The avg price might be lower than Dublin city, but its higher than the rest of Ireland avg, yet the price increases are nearly half that in the rest of Ireland in percentage terms.
Prices traditionally increase in dublin city first, and then ripple out through county dublin (incl Fingal) and then to the rest of Ireland.

I'd imagine it's due to the fact that Fingal is probably growth by local need (I.e. people from there) as it wouldn't be as desirable a place to move to for country people or foreigners in comparison to SCD or the city* for the most part, obviously there's lovely areas in Fingal and horrible areas in SCD

The_Conductor

sk8board wrote: »

I was curious about this too. The avg price might be lower than Dublin city, but its higher than the rest of Ireland avg, yet the price increases are nearly half that in the rest of Ireland in percentage terms.
Prices traditionally increase in dublin city first, and then ripple out through county dublin (incl Fingal) and then to the rest of Ireland.

Fingal has a significantly better supply than the other Dublin LAs- so supply, while constrained, is not constrained to the same extent- so you have rises- but not to the same extent as some other traditional areas- that are just impossible to buy in..........

rsynnott

sk8board wrote: »

I was curious about this too. The avg price might be lower than Dublin city, but its higher than the rest of Ireland avg, yet the price increases are nearly half that in the rest of Ireland in percentage terms.
Prices traditionally increase in dublin city first, and then ripple out through county dublin (incl Fingal) and then to the rest of Ireland.

Fingal's where most of Dublin's new-builds are right now, which may be holding it down. If you want a house/apartment in Dublin City you're mostly competing for a very small number of second-hand houses being sold; there are few new-builds. Hopefully once supply improves, the rest of Dublin's price growth should fall to more like Fingal's.

alias no.9

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

I'd imagine it's due to the fact that Fingal is probably growth by local need (I.e. people from there) as it wouldn't be as desirable a place to move to for country people or foreigners in comparison to SCD or the city* for the most part, obviously there's lovely areas in Fingal and horrible areas in SCD

Could it just be the largest number of new builds are being delivered in Fingal?

sk8board

alias no.9 wrote: »

Could it just be the largest number of new builds are being delivered in Fingal?

yeh I think that makes more sense. Locals buy in equal measure in all areas, to be closer to family etc.
People forget how big Fingal is, including expensive areas like Skerries, Howth, Malahide, Castleknock, Portmarnock, Sutton etc:

https://www.google.ie/maps/place/Fingal,+Co.+Dublin/@53.4801154,-6.5276467,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x486710e503e56e29:0x109890ca878afc0c!8m2!3d53.4923939!4d-6.2539777

Mickiemcfist

alias no.9 wrote: »

Could it just be the largest number of new builds are being delivered in Fingal?

Why would the builders not develop in the city or south? Higher land prices due to desirability of said land

Mickiemcfist

sk8board wrote: »

yeh I think that makes more sense. Locals buy in equal measure in all areas, to be closer to family etc.
People forget how big Fingal is, including expensive areas like Skerries, Howth, Malahide, Castleknock, Portmarnock, Sutton etc:

https://www.google.ie/maps/place/Fingal,+Co.+Dublin/@53.4801154,-6.5276467,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x486710e503e56e29:0x109890ca878afc0c!8m2!3d53.4923939!4d-6.2539777

Wasn't really my point, I meant locals + external would try to buy in the city or South. I.e. the external element driving the other c.5%

rsynnott

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Why would the builders not develop in the city or south? Higher land prices due to desirability of said land

Also, planning already done for big developments in Fingal (and DLR to some extent).

alias no.9

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Why would the builders not develop in the city or south? Higher land prices due to desirability of said land

Take a look at the county boundary for Fingal on a satellite view on google maps, then do the same for Dublin City, South Dublin and Dun Laoighre Rathdown. Fingal is both the least developed of the four and has the largest amount of land suitable for development. Dublin City Council has little development land beyond brownfield and infill developments. Significant portions of undeveloped land available in South Dublin County Council and Dun Laoighre Rathdown are mountainous.

It's worth further analysis of the numbers of completions as a proportion of the existing stock and of all property transactions etc... but on the face of it screams just build more houses to get house price inflation under control.

OwlsZat

The 60% cash buyers bit is annoying me. I think understanding it will go someway to unlocking what's actually going on.
Reasons to be cash buyers.
1. Sold my house
- Will be a certain amount of these, buy each buyer is also a seller i.e. to count their original house will have to have been bought with cash otherwise is 1:1  cash credit
2. Back from Oz / Dubai etc.,
Back from the stand states and have saved a bucket load of cash. 2016 was the year we returned to Net inward migration. + 3,100 people from previous. Not enough people to be the difference.
3. Borrowed from Bank of Mom & Dad
There is certainly plenty of this because let's face it. Mom and Dad enjoyed the good times and If they played their cards right there is every change they have to the resources to help. However, Mom and Dad have been around a while, they have seen boom and bust a few times over and will be acutely aware that that property is being artificially inflated in price.
4. Foreign investors
IMO this is most likely driver of the 60% being cash buyers. Obviously each has a contribution but I'd be shocked if this wasn't by far the biggest contributor. Sadly, the high rents in the short term only make the yields look better. Some area's still carried an 8% yield on paper and I think this will be enough to see a continued steady flow of foreign investment into Dublin property. Since the price is being driven by under supply. I believe this is why the Governments are trying to keep rents low. I personally would like to see a separate tax introduced on overseas investors.
It's about time we started pulling in some sizable tax dollars from those who have the resources to pay and have done very well from us over the last few years. As well as generating tax dollars it has the added bonus of cooling down this sector and giving Irish residents a chance of buying back their own country at a reasonable price.

Graham

OwlsZat wrote: »

4. Foreign investors
IMO this is most likely driver of the 60% being cash buyers. Obviously each has a contribution but I'd be shocked if this wasn't by far the biggest contributor. Sadly, the high rents in the short term only make the yields look better. Some area's still carried an 8% yield on paper and I think this will be enough to see a continued steady flow of foreign investment into Dublin property. Since the price is being driven by under supply. I believe this is why the Governments are trying to keep rents low. I personally would like to see a separate tax introduced on overseas investors.
It's about time we started pulling in some sizable tax dollars from those who have the resources to pay and have done very well from us over the last few years. As well as generating tax dollars it has the added bonus of cooling down this sector and giving Irish residents a chance of buying back their own country at a reasonable price.

As tempting as I'm sure it is to blame johnny foreigner, I don't see much evidence that overseas investors are snapping up individual properties.

Come to think of it, I don't see particularly high yields in most major cities either. High prices and rent caps are surely driving yields down.

OwlsZat

Graham wrote: »

As tempting as I'm sure it is to blame johnny foreigner, I don't see much evidence that overseas investors are snapping up individual properties.

Come to think of it, I don't see particularly high yields in most major cities either. High prices and rent caps are surely driving yields down.

8% yields still available. Explain 60% cash buyers so. It's a ridiculously high number.

Graham

OwlsZat wrote: »

Explain 60% cash buyers so. It's a ridiculously high number.

I just don't get how you're coming up with the cash buyers must equal foreign buyers logic. You're surely basing your opinion on more than the percentage of cash buyers.

Cyrus

where is it being reported that 60% of buyers are cash buyers?

Hollister11

Cyrus wrote: »

where is it being reported that 60% of buyers are cash buyers?

AFAIK it was in one of the papers a few day ago.

Cyrus

Hollister11 wrote: »

AFAIK it was in one of the papers a few day ago.

i think they are taking comments from the central bank, i believe the 60% relates to 2013 & 14 however and that makes sense as the banks werent lending the same way.

i would be amazed if its anywhere close to that for 2016 or 17 ytd

Lumen

OwlsZat wrote: »

8% yields still available. Explain 60% cash buyers so. It's a ridiculously high number.

What number would you expect?

Take a simple model of 3 lifetime property transactions: buy, trade up, trade down.

That would give a third of transactions as cash (you don't borrow to trade down), and that's before individual investors, transfers between companies (do they count?), etc.

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

i would be amazed if its anywhere close to that for 2016 or 17 ytd

2016 was 47% cash source Irish times

Lumen wrote:

Take a simple model of 3 lifetime property transactions: buy, trade up, trade down.

We don't do trade down very well. The figures for trade down would be well below the 2 other categories

Cuddlesworth

Villa05 wrote: »

We don't do trade down very well. The figures for trade down would be well below the 2 other categories

I live in a estate of 2 bed detached bungalows in Dublin. To say that the interest in these houses from the elderly is intense would be a understatement. I think like most things in Ireland, we don't do trade downs well but its not like they don't happen.

LirW

Villa05 wrote: »

We don't do trade down very well. The figures for trade down would be well below the 2 other categories

i think it has to do with supply really. Elderly want to stay in their area but in plenty it happens that there's nothing they could trade down to. Our former neighbors, an elderly couple that split up, sold their house. He moved from Glasnevin to Wicklow town close to the daughter in a 1bed apartment because he is very ill. She's fine but really struggled to find something suitable for herself. Ultimately at least in urban areas a lot of elderly would move but there's simply nothing so they stay put.

greensheep777

Any predictions for Budget 2018? Will it help homebuyers at all?

Taylor365

OwlsZat wrote: »

8% yields still available. Explain 60% cash buyers so. It's a ridiculously high number.

And how much of that yield is actually net profit?



About €50-100.