Widespread Snow Showers Thurs 12th/Fri 13th Jan 2017

ArKl0w

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is the wave early on Thursday? Are we still ok re that system being further south? Thanks again

We'll be fairly sure tomorrow but I'm thinking if it does the southwest and south coast it will turn to wet snow if it lingers -North and west Cork and Kerry the favourite spots

Graces7

You bin busy while I tried to sleep with the gale howling like a rabid wolf. Deja vu!

Kermit.de.frog

00z GFS pushes precip for Thursday morning just that little north. Dublin not far from possible disruptive snow for a time.

Easterly Beasterly

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

00z GFS pushes precip for Thursday morning just that little north. Dublin not far from possible disruptive snow for a time.

Yes and Met Eireann's update is a bit more positive for widespread snow.

Bitterly cold tomorrow Thursday, with scattered sleet and snow showers, and the ongoing threat on thunder. Accumulations, even on lower levels. Long dry spells during the day as well though. Highest temperatures of only 1 to 3 degrees, in a rather brisk northwest wind.

JCX BXC

5am TAF out.

Knock Airport, light snow showers from 4pm today until 9pm tonight.

Belfast Aldergrove will have moderate rain snow (sleet) from 4pm until midnight and then moderate snow showers from midnight to 6am.

Donegal Storm

Latest accumulation chart still showing just a brief covering of slush for all but higher ground.

Rebelbrowser

Cant post charts on phone but overnight hirlam and euro 04 high resolution models (best for forecasting short range events) show plenty of white gold around tomorrow. A warning would be that it looks like it will be rain or sleet in the southern half of the country until mid morning tomorrow but from then on it looks like all snow where it falls. Plenty showers on hirlam making it all the way to Dublin. From an imby perspective Cork city could be hit and miss all day but hirlam in particular has a lot of snow then falling late tomorrow evening. From having closely observed a few previous such events they do often ultimately work out very different to even these models so expect surprises (good and bad) in terms of locations affected, timing, type of precipitation, etc. Fingers etc crossed.

fraxinus1

Well why am I not surprised? It's looking likely that the Siberian air won't be reaching us next weeek afterall. Major shift in the models overnight. So whatever people manage to get on Thursday (I'm expecting major disappointments with this 'spell' also) this is likely to be it for January. From Saturday it's back to the westerly influence and once that sets in.... well it'll never budge. Very disheartening.

Rock Lesnar

BBC forecast last Sunday looks spot on again, brief cold spell before mild Atlantic from Sunday, as European high drifts towards Scandinavia from early next week

q85dw7osi4lebg

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Well why am I not surprised? It's looking likely that the Siberian air won't be reaching us next weeek afterall. Major shift in the models overnight. So whatever people manage to get on Thursday (I'm expecting major disappointments with this 'spell' also) this is likely to be it for January. From Saturday it's back to the westerly influence and once that sets in.... well it'll never budge. Very disheartening.

Why do we stay hopeful when something nice is brewing in FI then lose all hope when there's a downgrade? Anything can happen. It's still FI.

Donegal Storm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Well why am I not surprised? It's looking likely that the Siberian air won't be reaching us next weeek afterall. Major shift in the models overnight. So whatever people manage to get on Thursday (I'm expecting major disappointments with this 'spell' also) this is likely to be it for January. From Saturday it's back to the westerly influence and once that sets in.... well it'll never budge. Very disheartening.

Hasn't been a major shift at all, models have been fairly consistent all week. A brief cool nw'erly followed by a milder weekend then high pressure building over Northern Europe, that's still the forecast this morning. Exact positions will naturally vary on each model run, people just like to take any run that shows cold over Ireland as the default expectation then anything that later doesn't show this proves that the models are 'all over the place'.

Anyway, wrong thread for all that. Hail showers kicking off here in NW Donegal in the past hour, plenty packing into Northern Scotland at the moment. Hoping for some nice thundery squalls as the day progresses

ArKl0w

Carol Kirkwood on news 24 has showed the wave making it as far as south Dublin with snow on the highest parts of the Wicklow mtns but rain mostly elsewhere as it slides away
(Snow showers packing in up north especially Ulster Sligo Leitrim area see next few posts for graphics)

5am Thursday graphics attached

It's then things get very interesting in the south midlands and most of Munster-see next post for that

horsefarm

I've been informed that my son has invited his whole class up to our house on Thursday WHEN it snows.
I'm not sure whats worse, a 5 year olds disapointment when it doesnt snow, or the possibility of 30 5 year olds if it does snow...

Tense times here in South Dublin

pedigree 6

The Met Office has a low pressure system of 994 off the north west of Ireland for 12 tomorrow.

ArKl0w

Here's Carols Graphics for later Thursday and the showers up north
Swathes of Tipp,Cork,Limerick,probably Kilkenny and Waterford and Kerry look like a spell of heavy snow
More than likely settling early on with high ground but also low ground
It's likely to stay on the ground in places too because it will freeze bullets Thursday night and stay low single figures Friday and Saturday

Not much significant reaching Dublin except possibly south Dublin and central Wicklow Thursday

munsterlegend

ArKl0w wrote: »

Here's Carols Graphics for later Thursday and the showers up north
Swathes of Tipp,Cork,Limerick,probably Kilkenny and Waterford and Kerry look like a spell of heavy snow
More than likely settling early on with high ground but also low ground
It's likely to stay on the ground in places too because it will freeze bullets Thursday night and stay low single figures Friday and Saturday

Not much significant reaching Dublin except possibly south Dublin and central Wicklow Thursday

Where is this precipitation coming from?

ArKl0w

munsterlegend wrote: »

Where is this precipitation coming from?

It looks like prolonged showers

Villain

Harmonie has some nice showers in eastern areas ( away from coasts) Thursday evening, this will be interesting to watch as it unfolds.

ArKl0w

pedigree 6 wrote: »

The Met Office has a low pressure system of 994 off the north west of Ireland for 12 tomorrow.

To the left of that low is an organised shower trough/small occluded front
Another shower trough shown as a line just tipping Cork
The former is probably the enhanced shower activity shown on Carols graphic

munsterlegend

ArKl0w wrote: »

To the left of that low is an organised shower trough/small occluded front
Another shower trough shown as a line just tipping Cork
The former is probably the enhanced shower activity shown on Carols graphic

Thanks for that. Just hoping it won't have any mild sectors and fall as rain.

pedigree 6

ArKl0w wrote: »

To the left of that low is an organised shower trough/small occluded front
Another shower trough shown as a line just tipping Cork
The former is probably the enhanced shower activity shown on Carols graphic

ECM has that low just off the Donegal coast at 3pm tomorrow and then crossing the country.




I think that's where my interest will be tomorrow. There might not be much precipitation with it (although you never know) but there could be some localised strong winds associated with it.

Steve F

BBC Met office

An arctic blast to stay or not to stay?
Certain numerical models are suggesting that a cold easterly airflow could develop over the weekend bringing temperatures well below average, as we have seen in Europe already this week. But on the other hand ... other data suggests a return to a milder Atlantic direction.

Well??

pauldry

its hard to know

Parts of NW and midlands could dodge a lot of showers too...say Sligo and Roscommon Offaly Laos Westmeath

Think Ulster and Munster do best

munsterlegend

Steve F wrote: »

BBC Met office

An arctic blast to stay or not to stay?
Certain numerical models are suggesting that a cold easterly airflow could develop over the weekend bringing temperatures well below average, as we have seen in Europe already this week. But on the other hand ... other data suggests a return to a milder Atlantic direction.

Well??

After Saturday it will be mild here again for a good few days. The Uk can be a much different climate to ours.

ArKl0w

As I said the easterly may be back later let's see

Meanwhile Wicklow seems to have entered the firing line for tomorrow's snow:eek:

Boggy Turf

ArKl0w wrote: »

As I said the easterly may be back later let's see

Meanwhile Wicklow seems to have entered the firing line for tomorrow's snow:eek:

Have you a link for those snow charts?

ArKl0w

Boggy Turf wrote: »

Have you a link for those snow charts?

They should be freely available over on netweather and TWO

q85dw7osi4lebg

STATUS ORANGE for places

JanuarySnowstor

Well the warnings are coming thick and fast now.
Blizzards for the northwest!!

Missymoohaa

I'm following this forum avidly. It's great fun to see what will happen. I also follow the F1 Charts and Winter Weather one and have read every bit of them and am still trying to work out if there will be snow in my part of the world. I live in Northwest Wicklow 205m asl .

Yesterday evening I said there's no chance of snow here but today I'm going hmmm well maybe! Anyone else out think I'm in with a good chance?