Widespread Snow Showers Thurs 12th/Fri 13th Jan 2017

MJohnston

I'd have to say it's a good thing there was a Yellow warning for Ice in the Leinster area, because I was out for a walk there and there's a surprising amount of black ice on the streets and roads. Could catch a lot of people out.

screamer

what a non-event that was.

BorneTobyWilde

Snow on hilltops , well I never .

End , barrel, scrape .

Really was a huge fail for the forecasters. Seems people on here know more than the BBC.

MJohnston

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I think the main issue with over hyping on this forum is that once the forecast becomes public knowledge this place gets flooded with hundreds of non regulars and a lot of the more knowledgeable posters don't bother posting as everything just gets swallowed up in the chaos. A small number of people start hyping it up and get 50 likes on every post, anyone trying to be realistic is dismissed as being negative and suddenly everyone's expecting a repeat of 2010.

In reality all week people here were forecasting a chance of snow showers in the North and West and maybe a flurry elsewhere. It turned out to be sleet and hail pretty much everywhere as the cold wasn't as potent as modelled, this is a well known issue with Atlantic polar maritimes that anyone who follows the models should have expected.

But anyways, onwards and upwards, I'm sure we'll be doing it all again soon

The other thing is that the regular posters (professional, amateur, or interested observer) are aware of the probabilities involved with forecasting and with model runs, and tend not to repeat that fact over and over again (because we're among people who know that) - so when you get a lot of unfamiliar newcomers, they don't understand this - that when someone posts a model run, there are implicit likelihoods of it happening based on unsaid factors like how far in the future the run is from, how marginal the conditions currently existing are, how likely certain types of weather are to be affected by others, etc.

That ought to be the one thing people worrying about hype take on board. If you equip and educate yourself with even the basic facts, you'll be able to make those value judgements yourself without worrying about whether others are hyping things.

weatherfiend

Villain wrote: »

Few more high res photos from the hills this morning

Killeshin Snow January 13 2017 by WeatherSnapper, on Flickr

Killeshin Snow January 13 2017 by WeatherSnapper, on Flickr


Killeshin Snow January 13 2017 by WeatherSnapper, on Flickr

Killeshin Snow January 13 2017 by WeatherSnapper, on Flickr

Fab photos

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

CrowdedHouse

Seemed to be a good bit of snow around Castlebar - Claremorris area.Snow on the hills, plenty of slush left on the road around midday. Saw a silver Scooby in the ditch - hope no one was injured.

weisses

Graces7 wrote: »

Conor Pass is closed too , here in Dingle, Kerry .. kerry coco twitter is great online

You moved to Dingle ?

ArKl0w

lucernarian wrote: »

If there is clear evidence that this event was overhyped by many here, why disregard that in favour of your own point? Sure, it's not meant to be personal but it sounds like a strong defence of something that is contradicted by evidence...

Posters put forward model charts that did not support widespread snow while claiming it did. If that's not overhyping by some posters here, than what is? I'm kinda surprised that regular posters and in this case a mod, wouldn't recognise some of the posts for what it was and that this event's predictions were

a) more wide of the mark than typical in the euro4 era in the forum,

b) even if the models were accurate and perhaps on the cold side, we would have had maybe 15 cm on Northwestern hills and much less elsewhere.

c) a brief glance at the numbers of posts this time around vs reports of snow, and compare that to e.g. March 2016's more widespread event, would show a clear difference in how the predictions were posted.


The fact so many would thank your post makes me think what I said was sort of personal offense to many posters here, it really needn't be taken that way.

Do we really want an echo chamber for a forum?

Well I said it might be similar to Xmas 2004 and I think it was (though Gonzo's snow stayed up Monaghan way)

I also think posters generally usually when posting charts DO qualify with language similar to 'if it verified'

lucernarian

MJohnston wrote: »

The other thing is that the regular posters (professional, amateur, or interested observer) are aware of the probabilities involved with forecasting and with model runs, and tend not to repeat that fact over and over again (because we're among people who know that) - so when you get a lot of unfamiliar newcomers, they don't understand this - that when someone posts a model run, there are implicit likelihoods of it happening based on unsaid factors like how far in the future the run is from, how marginal the conditions currently existing are, how likely certain types of weather are to be affected by others, etc.

That ought to be the one thing people worrying about hype take on board. If you equip and educate yourself with even the basic facts, you'll be able to make those value judgements yourself without worrying about whether others are hyping things.

I didnt't see much evidence of the restraint that would show this learned wisdom, with a big exception; the good call not to make it an orange alert on the forum.

I think the trick is to let people dissent if they can back it up, and also that we could acknowledge that there's "semi-regular" posters who have a dangerous level of knowledge, enough to talk about uppers and blocking, but with snowy blinkers I guess.

No harm in that, it's quite fun to see someone wax lyrical about a model output

But I do object to posts telling me how I should interpret facts or pretending that the bias and hyperbole doesn't really exist here. Some folks ought to exercise more restraint when there's a bigger influx of excited posts and all that. That's just my opinion though, I only want the right to dissenting opinions to be respected more.

Dial Hard

hotwhiskey wrote:

The warm sector that moved south yesterday evening done alot of harm to people who would of intentionally would of recived snow if the warmer sector was not included.

How do you intentionally receive snow???

lucernarian

ArKl0w wrote: »

Well I said it might be similar to Xmas 2004 and I think it was (though Gonzo's snow stayed up Monaghan way)

I also think posters generally usually when posting charts DO qualify with language similar to 'if it verified'

Again I don't want to pick on individual moments but I was thinking of that prediction, which had a rather different synopsis. Lots of overnight showers which reached past Louth (and stuck), a dry Xmas day morning before a shallow low from the north brought more snow to the high ground I lived on before turning to rain.

I guess "if it verified" isn't of much help when the whole narrative of a post is overwhelmingly on the side of one interpretation. All weather posts boil down to predictions, but it's fair to say that a wave tracking across the country in daylight hours may not deliver snow like it would if it arrived at night.

I've been guilty myself of hyping up events but time passes by and I wish that we'd see a broader range of interpretations or at least not disregard something if a good point is being made.

koutoubia

To all those giving out about what a hyped up flop this event was....Personally I would rather be prepared for snowmaggedon and then nothing happens then be caught out.
Most of us who are here should realise our unique location never makes any extreme weather a certainty.
Thanks to all the regular forecasters in here who almost always get it right be it it Snow or Sun. I work outdoors and have come to realise that I get my info from here as it's usually reliable . So thanks again.

lolie

About half an inch of icy snow on the ground this morning, thawing slowly.
Some of the back roads are still very icy in spots so still dangerous out.

MJohnston

lucernarian wrote: »

I didnt't see much evidence of the restraint that would show this learned wisdom, with a big exception; the good call not to make it an orange alert on the forum.

I think the trick is to let people dissent if they can back it up, and also that we could acknowledge that there's "semi-regular" posters who have a dangerous level of knowledge, enough to talk about uppers and blocking, but with snowy blinkers I guess.

No harm in that, it's quite fun to see someone wax lyrical about a model output

But I do object to posts telling me how I should interpret facts or pretending that the bias and hyperbole doesn't really exist here. Some folks ought to exercise more restraint when there's a bigger influx of excited posts and all that. That's just my opinion though, I only want the right to dissenting opinions to be respected more.

I didn't say that 'bias' (whatever that could be in the case of weather) and hyperbole don't exist here, I said that it shouldn't matter to someone in possession of a basic understanding of how to interpret weather predictions and models.

Gonzo

still some lying snow in the shade here, surprised it's lasted this long since it's really just a dusting. If the mild sector hadn't ruined the event we could've had at least in inch or two on the ground. Then again atlantic cold spells always have mild sectors with precipitation.

MJohnston

Mates in the north saying they're getting some decent snowfalls at the minute (Belfast I think)

Gaoth Laidir

Nobody here knows more than the Met Éireann, the UKMO, etc., however there are some who THINK they do. They DON'T look at the same model output as they do, they have a wealth more parameters in addition. The Met Office went Live on Facebook the other afternoon particularly to explain the uncertainty of this particular event and indeed the Chief Forecaster explained it in depth...LIVE!

Threads like this are a no-go area for anyone trying to decipher info. There should be a Technical Discussion thread where only technical discussion and latest updates takeplace...nothing else. Any chatty posts, such as the vast majority of those in this thread, should be moved to a Chat forum.

The parameters for snow were there in yesterday's Castor Bay sounding but were not in Valentia's. Wednesday's mild weather and its residual warmth, along with a shallow marine layer and slight warm core, led to a bust in much of the west. In the east things went better but again there was little intensity in most of the showers and the earlier ones melted.

As is a common theme year after year, you just can't tell with a northwesterly. 850 hPa temperature, thetas, partial thickness are one thing, but these do not account for the lowest melting layers. This is where experience comes in.

ArKl0w

lucernarian wrote: »

Again I don't want to pick on individual moments but I was thinking of that prediction, which had a rather different synopsis. Lots of overnight showers which reached past Louth (and stuck), a dry Xmas day morning before a shallow low from the north brought more snow to the high ground I lived on before turning to rain.

I guess "if it verified" isn't of much help when the whole narrative of a post is overwhelmingly on the side of one interpretation. All weather posts boil down to predictions, but it's fair to say that a wave tracking across the country in daylight hours may not deliver snow like it would if it arrived at night.

I've been guilty myself of hyping up events but time passes by and I wish that we'd see a broader range of interpretations or at least not disregard something if a good point is being made.

You may aswell stop reading here so because pretty much every analysis on this board is contingent on something or other verifying

pedigree 6

Gonzo wrote: »

still some lying snow in the shade here, surprised it's lasted this long since it's really just a dusting. If the mild sector hadn't ruined the event we could've had at least in inch or two on the ground. Then again atlantic cold spells always have mild sectors with precipitation.

The ground temperature, don't forget it was 5 to 6c before this event happened.
If we had a had a low soil temperature before this snow it would have been a different matter entirely with lying snow.

---

The post mortem continues but we're going to a situation here now where some posters will be wondering whether to post in here or not. I'm glad that some posters are able to 100% predict the weather from weather charts made available to the general public and think they are superior to forecasters who have access to the private models. However I don't think that's the case. It's vain to even suggest this.
I've been following the charts like everyone on here has and there will always be surprises good and bad. That's the attraction of weather watching.
It would be boring otherwise.:cool:

Edit: this is not a dig at you Gonzo. The first part is in response to your post.:p
It's just a general statement.

lucernarian

ArKl0w wrote: »

You may aswell stop reading here so because pretty much every analysis on this board is contingent on something or other verifying

Oh lawd...

It's for that reason we should be able to post something that disagrees with another consensus, without people getting butthurt over it all.

Again, posting something really excited and snowy-themed is fine, it shouldn't lead to being drowned out by one opinion time after time.

I can't really say more without going round in circles. If folks don't want to accept that many posters got carried away with this particular event, I can't help that. I'd really like it if I wasn't told I'm wrong about something when I've offered evidence of it, especially by anyone who regularly posts or has posted for a long time.

The forum will be better off by not making an echo chamber out of it.

Super-Rush

Does it really make a difference if the forecasts here or elsewhere were over zealous?

Would you rather have been prepared for the worst and nothing happened or be told everything was going to be just a damp squib and you were snowed in with out provisions?

This forum amazes me sometimes.

Rebelbrowser

lucernarian wrote: »

Oh lawd...

It's for that reason we should be able to post something that disagrees with another consensus, without people getting butthurt over it all.

Again, posting something really excited and snowy-themed is fine, it shouldn't lead to being drowned out by one opinion time after time.

I can't really say more without going round in circles. If folks don't want to accept that many posters got carried away with this particular event, I can't help that. I'd really like it if I wasn't told I'm wrong about something when I've offered evidence of it, especially by anyone who regularly posts or has posted for a long time.

The forum will be better off by not making an echo chamber out of it.

I'll regret getting involved in this but I really don't think there was any board regular who thought (and thus represented) there was anything guaranteed about this. From OP onwards I think the continual message was that charts were showing x, from experience these charts overdo things, but there is certainly a decent chance of y. The y that was forecast in general by boardsies was widespread snow showers that might or might not stick. I for one got roughly what I expected from yesterday - though admittedly I did a bit better on xmas day 2004. The surprise perhaps is that the north west didn't do better - but these risks were clearly set out.

To the extent there was a consensus forecast from boardsies it mirrored what met.ie were saying. For the avoidance of doubt met.ie are, by some distance, the go to people for anyone who wants a weather forecast in this country but what boards can provide is more up to date, locale specific comment in the middle of any event. Boards can also discuss possibilities (flagging them only as possibilities) which met e can't do as the second they mention a possibility stupid people will latch onto same as gospel.

All that having been said, as someone with no understanding of the science of weather (I did latin instead of physics or chemistry for my leaving!) and who can only just go on numeric readings and charts from models, I do really appreciate the knowledgeable comments of someone like Gaoth Laidir above in his critique.

highdef

Gonzo wrote: »

still some lying snow in the shade here, surprised it's lasted this long since it's really just a dusting. If the mild sector hadn't ruined the event we could've had at least in inch or two on the ground. Then again atlantic cold spells always have mild sectors with precipitation.

And if there had been no mild sector, all of us away from the north and west would most likely not to have had any precip as it was the mild air aloft that allowed the sleet and snow to develop so widely.

hotwhiskey

Wow!

I can't hold my tongue any longer after reading through this thread and the PM's I have recieved since yesterday. The people here accusing of over ramping and reciving false information on the weather forecast need to take anxiety pill over the lack of snow the recived.

Since this cold blast from the NW was flaged most information was relayed here from professional weather centre's and other meteorological outlet's by other members here and myself. A few long time members stuck there neck's out to give there view on upcoming event if there were amauter or studying meteorological science and in my case it's my sixty+ winters I have lived through and what to expect around here or not.

I applaud people who give annlysis on upcoming weather be snow or no snow. M.T is a great assist to this forum. But I'm sorry to say the like's of Wolfe, Mags, Easterly to name a few who have gone from here who give annylsis on upcoming situations saying how the saw things unfolding are gone. You will never see people come on here and say 'Congratlutions lads you called this one 100% right. No you will have the moaners and the people who look at the glass half empty and ridicule people who do this has a hoppy.

Moving on I'm done posting my weather view here. Its a disgrace the abuse from PM's from my post over two days ago that did not happen for some. But came to pass here. Sorry Mods but there should of been a chit chat thread and a annylsis thread for yesterday and policed with a iron fist.

Boggy Turf

My song for conflict resolution

pedigree 6

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Wow!

I can't hold my tongue any longer after reading through this thread and the PM's I have recieved since yesterday. The people here accusing of over ramping and reciving false information on the weather forecast need to take anxiety pill over the lack of snow the recived.

Since this cold blast from the NW was flaged most information was relayed here from professional weather centre's and other meteorological outlet's by other members here and myself. A few long time members stuck there neck's out to give there view on upcoming event if there were amauter or studying meteorological science and in my case it's my sixty+ winters I have lived through and what to expect around here or not.

I applaud people who give annlysis on upcoming weather be snow or no snow. M.T is a great assist to this forum. But I'm sorry to say the like's of Wolfe, Mags, Easterly to name a few who have gone from here who give annylsis on upcoming situations saying how the saw things unfolding are gone. You will never see people come on here and say 'Congratlutions lads you called this one 100% right. No you will have the moaners and the people who look at the glass half empty and ridicule people who do this has a hoppy.

Moving on I'm done posting my weather view here. Its a disgrace the abuse from PM's from my post over two days ago that did not happen for some. But came to pass here. Sorry Mods but there should of been a chit chat thread and a annylsis thread for yesterday and policed with a iron fist.

Don't close your account whatever you do.
I learnt that the hard way.

This is way too serious here.
And some people take themselves way too seriously.
I look forward to your posts again in the future.

This is just an online public commercial weather forum.

Ps. I'm feeling left out now. I get no private messages.:(:D

Samash

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Wow!

I can't hold my tongue any longer after reading through this thread and the PM's I have recieved since yesterday. The people here accusing of over ramping and reciving false information on the weather forecast need to take anxiety pill over the lack of snow the recived.

Since this cold blast from the NW was flaged most information was relayed here from professional weather centre's and other meteorological outlet's by other members here and myself. A few long time members stuck there neck's out to give there view on upcoming event if there were amauter or studying meteorological science and in my case it's my sixty+ winters I have lived through and what to expect around here or not.

I applaud people who give annlysis on upcoming weather be snow or no snow. M.T is a great assist to this forum. But I'm sorry to say the like's of Wolfe, Mags, Easterly to name a few who have gone from here who give annylsis on upcoming situations saying how the saw things unfolding are gone. You will never see people come on here and say 'Congratlutions lads you called this one 100% right. No you will have the moaners and the people who look at the glass half empty and ridicule people who do this has a hoppy.

Moving on I'm done posting my weather view here. Its a disgrace the abuse from PM's from my post over two days ago that did not happen for some. But came to pass here. Sorry Mods but there should of been a chit chat thread and a annylsis thread for yesterday and policed with a iron fist.

You actually received abuse via pm over this?! :eek: some people need to get a grip. Personally I enjoy boards weather forum to see the more knowledgeable posters predictions and seeing how everything pans out.
Thanks to hotwhiskey and all the more knowledgeable posters for taking the time to look at the charts and provide us with your views. Sorry to hear you received abuse over this.

Mouseslayer17

Ken ring for president

fraxinus1

hotwhiskey wrote:

Moving on I'm done posting my weather view here. Its a disgrace the abuse from PM's from my post over two days ago that did not happen for some. But came to pass here. Sorry Mods but there should of been a chit chat thread and a annylsis thread for yesterday and policed with a iron fist.

Are you not over reacting just a tad? Iron fist? Nazism, boards style.