Fight Time From 4am-McGregor vs Mayweather**MOD Warning in 1st Post**

Mellor

Draw

eddie73 wrote: »

Its meant in relative terms. Leisceter city were 5,000/1 against in a 20 horse race. Conor McGregor is flickering between 6 and 7/1 against which is a big price in a 2 horse race. The point is that if the bookies were to be more generous in their odds, they would be putting their noses on the block because of the sentimental money that is going to pour on Mcgregor. They have obviously factored in McGregor's only hope being a knock out punch. As unlikely as it is, they wont be any more generous in their odds.

The reality is that he should be at least 25 if not 33/1 against rather than 6 or 7 when you factor in the caliber of his opponent and the fact he is fighting out of the octagon too.

We were talking about Mayweather's odds not McGregors. So the above makes no sense at all when applied to other side of the market.

It's a two horse race as you said, which means the odds follow a predictable pattern in other to arrive at a given overround. The bookies are obviously protecting against sentimental money on McGregor by shortening him from 50/1 to 10/1 or less. But this a knock on effect to this shortening. Mayweather's odds increase by the same factor they've reduced Conors.

Morrison J wrote:

If you gave me 100/1 on McGregor I'd still have zero interest in backing him.

What odds would you want on Mayweather?
Open question to the entire thread actually.

Mellor

Draw

Positively Negative wrote: »

I am not rooting through thousands of posts on a 2 year old thread to find the experts who didn't give him a chance.

My original statement was that the "experts" called me deluded, not everyone.

You don't have to root through thousands of posts. You can check your post history with two clicks.
I just checked yours there and you don't have any posts on the MMA forum. So that confirms it, you're making it all up. What a weird thing to lie about.
http://www.boards.ie/search/submit/?user=831585&sort=newest

Positively Negative

Mellor wrote:

What odds would you want on Mayweather? Open question to the entire thread actually.

In a fight where 1 accurate or lucky punch could end it, I would say 1/10 or less.

These odds will shrink rapid when me and McGregors army lump on, as a previous post said.

Mellor

Draw

pac_man wrote: »

I do find the odds rather short for Mayweather but thought it was a case of bookies balancing their books. I'm no odds compiler though. Would you normally back someone at 1/10?

The balancing the books thing is misrepresented a lot.
Sure, the markets react to bets placed, and prices get shorter or longer. Which can create value on one side when "the money" is wrong. But that's mostly price correcting rather than and attempt to balance.
They understand how value works and won't offer massively positive (for the punter) bets, instead they just lay the liability off on the exchanges.


In this case there was no balancing or line moving. The betting lines aren't open too long, and that's pretty much where the opened at in Vegas first.



I'd happily back a 1/10 shot if I thought there was value in it. Bets are made every day at much smaller odd. For reference, the bet has a positive expected value if Mayweather has a 91% or better chance of winning.

Subcomandante Marcos

Floyd via DQ

Joe Duffy would beat McGregor in a boxing match, never mind an actual full time professional ranked boxer.

eddie73

Mellor wrote: »

We were talking about Mayweather's odds not McGregors. So the above makes no sense at all when applied to other side of the market.

It's a two horse race as you said, which means the odds follow a predictable pattern in other to arrive at a given overround. The bookies are obviously protecting against sentimental money on McGregor by shortening him from 50/1 to 10/1 or less. But this a knock on effect to this shortening. Mayweather's odds increase by the same factor they've reduced Conors.




What odds would you want on Mayweather?
Open question to the entire thread actually.

The bookies have a bad rep for not over rounding the books correctly.. in their favor. Which basically means as the emotional money pours on McGregor from his support, Mayweather will not ease out as much he technically should.


Ante post gambling is a mugs game. I would prefer to wait for the night of the fight, if I were going to back at all. And I wouldnt back Mayweather to win either. I would be looking for a novelty bet seeing as this is a novelty fight. One or other fighter to get disqualified deliberately - to avoid losing or to set up a rematch might be the best bet you could get.

Mellor

Draw

eddie73 wrote: »

The bookies have a bad rep for not over rounding the books correctly.. in their favor. Which basically means as the emotional money pours on McGregor from his support, Mayweather will not ease out as much he technically should.

What they sometimes do it irrelevant. We are talking about the odds that are available now. Mayweater is available at 1/10 in more than one location.
Conor is available at 11/1. The two of those make a 100% book, the overround is basically the draw price.

Ante post gambling is a mugs game. I would prefer to wait for the night of the fight, if I were going to back at all. And I wouldnt back Mayweather to win either. I would be looking for a novelty bet seeing as this is a novelty fight. One or other fighter to get disqualified deliberately - to avoid losing or to set up a rematch might be the best bet you could get.

Ante post can create loads of value as the prices changes.
This isn't ante post really as bet is void for a non runner.

Novelty bets are the definition of mug bets imo.
An intentional DQ doesn't avoid losing.

eddie73

No way, a novelty bet in this instance offers the best value IMO. It's too chancy backing either fighter as it is hard to take it seriously. It would be the same as backing a WWF fight.

Positively Negative

eddie73 wrote:

No way, a novelty bet in this instance offers the best value IMO. It's too chancy backing either fighter as it is hard to take it seriously. It would be the same as backing a WWF fight.

I backed Brock Lesnar to beat the Undertaker a few years ago, 40/1 winner. If that's not value...

awec

If this wasn't such a novelty fight Mayweather would be absolutely slated for fighting such a weak opponent.

McGregor will lose, and lose badly. It is a certainty. If Mayweather wants to hit the 50-0 he should fight someone who wil be able to give him a bit of a match.

Django99

Mellor wrote: »

What odds would you want on Mayweather?
Open question to the entire thread actually.

I would say the "true" odds would be somewhere around 1/200. I would imagine that bets on Mayweather are/will be very limited. Even at that 1/10 price I doubt you could get much more that 100 on that at best.

eddie73

awec wrote: »

If this wasn't such a novelty fight Mayweather would be absolutely slated for fighting such a weak opponent.

McGregor will lose, and lose badly. It is a certainty. If Mayweather wants to hit the 50-0 he should fight someone who wil be able to give him a bit of a match.

These lads dont have to do anything they dont want to. I think that they are looking at money and are making no excuses about it at all. Lets be honest, almost all ufc or mma fighters out there, with the exception of Kahbib, would jump at the option of fighting for a payday like this outside of the MMA rules.

HigginsJ

awec wrote: »

If this wasn't such a novelty fight Mayweather would be absolutely slated for fighting such a weak opponent.

McGregor will lose, and lose badly. It is a certainty. If Mayweather wants to hit the 50-0 he should fight someone who wil be able to give him a bit of a match.

For it to be counted as 50-0 do someone like the WBA, WBC etc. need to sanction the fight?

walshb

Floyd via KO-TKO

HigginsJ wrote: »

For it to be counted as 50-0 do someone like the WBA, WBC etc. need to sanction the fight?

Or the NSAC.

Depp

Conor via DQ

walshb wrote: »

Or the NSAC.

if anyone actually thinks the nsac will refuse to sanction this, now thats delusion

awec

eddie73 wrote: »

These lads dont have to do anything they dont want to. I think that they are looking at money and are making no excuses about it at all. Lets be honest, almost all ufc or mma fighters out there, with the exception of Kahbib, would jump at the option of fighting for a payday like this outside of the MMA rules.

Aye I know that.

I guess when you are filthy rich you view these things from a different perspective, and 49-0 is an incredible record.

But hitting the 50 is probably significant, and would earning that against something as poor as McGregor (in boxing terms) not take a bit of the shine off it?

It would come across as a bit of a box ticking exercise, filler to pad out his record.

Maybe I'm wrong.

walshb

Floyd via KO-TKO

The authorities really need to think hard on this. This is not a game of tennis or badminton. It's a sport where you can die from a single blow. Allowing a man who has never boxed professionally before, and who has no real boxing background of late, to step into the ring to fight a pro fighter (in this case a very experienced pro fighter) could prove a reckless decision. And just because Conor is involved in combat sport does not excuse it. There are differences, and some could prove very dangerous.

Tombo2001

walshb wrote: »

The authorities really need to think hard on this. This is not a game of tennis or badminton. It's a sport where you can die from a single blow. Allowing a man who has never boxed professionally before, and who has no real boxing background of late, to step into the ring to fight a pro fighter (in this case a very experienced pro fighter) could prove a reckless decision. And just because Conor is involved in combat sport does not excuse it. There are differences, and some could prove very dangerous.

Funny because sometimes things seem blindingly obvious to me, yet no one else seems to acknowledge it - so that I begin to ask if I'm wrong in my judgement.....is there something I am missing.

This is one of those situations. You are the first person I've questioning this.

If anything, you've understated it by saying that Mayweather is merely a very experienced pro fighter.

walshb

Floyd via KO-TKO

Tombo2001 wrote: »

If anything, you've understated it by saying that Mayweather is merely a very experienced pro fighter.

I was aware when I wrote this. If anyone can lay clean and flush shots on a "novice" pro then it's Mayweather. I tell you, if I was Conor's blood I wouldn't at all be encouraging it, no matter what the price.

Some things regarding Mayweather. He may not be a big hitter, but against a nobody then he can surely sit down more and plant heavier shots. Plus, if one shot doesn't do it, then maybe he wins via clear accumulation. This could be potentially fatal. It doesn't take a massive shot to kill a man. Conor would probably be more safe getting one punch knocked out as opposed to many shots getting knocked out-stopped. Either scenario is risky.

Tombo2001

walshb wrote: »

I was aware when I wrote this. If anyone can lay clean and flush shots on a "novice" pro then it's Mayweather. I tell you, if I was Conor's blood I wouldn't at all be encouraging it, no matter what the price.

Some things regarding Mayweather. He may not be a big hitter, but against a nobody then he can surely sit down more and plant heavier shots. Plus, if one shot doesn't do it, then maybe he wins via clear accumulation. This could be potentially fatal. It doesn't take a massive shot to kill a man. Conor would probably be more safe getting one punch knocked out as opposed to many shots getting knocked out-stopped. Either scenario is risky.

Yep, that would be my thinking also.

Unless of course the whole thing is a big stitch up that the two guys concocted in some VIP lounge somewhere.....which is of course quite a reasonable scenario, good luck to them if they pull it off.

Gamebred

Floyd via KO-TKO

PMSL Mayweather is dwarf with broken hands and zero power lads will ya get a grip more chance of me winning the Euromillions than Floyd seriously hurting anybody never mind McGregor.

Depp

Conor via DQ

Gamebred wrote: »

PMSL Mayweather is dwarf with broken hands and zero power lads will ya get a grip more chance of me winning the Euromillions than Floyd seriously hurting anybody never mind McGregor.

Floyd ''Ironfist'' Mayweather :D

its grand though mcgregor has no idea how to throw a box so floyd can change his style completely

Burial.

Floyd via DQ

Gamebred wrote: »

PMSL Mayweather is dwarf with broken hands and zero power lads will ya get a grip more chance of me winning the Euromillions than Floyd seriously hurting anybody never mind McGregor.

I guess Conor is also a dwarf so? Or midget at the very least... Not even an inch in height difference. And there's more chance of you winning the Euromillions than there is for McGregor to hurt Floyd.

Depp

Conor via DQ

Burial. wrote: »

I guess Conor is also a dwarf so? Or midget at the very least... Not even an inch in height difference. And there's more chance of you winning the Euromillions than there is for McGregor to hurt Floyd.

theres a significantly higher chance of mcgregor catching floyd than there is of winning the euromillions. euromillions is 1 in 140 mil be real here

Gamebred

Floyd via KO-TKO

McGregor is bigger stronger harder hitting less brittle hands more athletic younger and in his prime, he will ko money may stiff and finish boxing off for good.

Depp

Conor via DQ

another thing everyones glossing over is we havent seen floyd in the ring for two years, thats a very significant amount of time to be out in boxing.

Burial.

Floyd via DQ

Depp wrote: »

theres a significantly higher chance of mcgregor catching floyd than there is of winning the euromillions. euromillions is 1 in 140 mil be real here

I'd fancy my chances in the euromillions over Conor hurting Floyd any day. Floyd has faced actual hard hitting boxers and taken their punches well. McGregor is 0 and 0 in boxing record and also has a 0% chance of hurting Floyd. Euromillions odds are staggeringly attractive in comparison.

Burial.

Floyd via DQ

Depp wrote: »

another thing everyones glossing over is we havent seen floyd in the ring for two years, thats a very significant amount of time to be out in boxing.

Incorrect. 509 days since he fought Berto which was't even a year and a half ago. And Floyd took more than that time off inbetween the Hatton and Marquez fight. That was 651 days or just over 1 and 3/4 years. He completely dominated and shutout JMM that night, an all time great boxer. It's funny history might repeat itself. Apologies to JMM for being compared to McGregor though.

Depp

Conor via DQ

Burial. wrote: »

I'd fancy my chances in the euromillions over Conor hurting Floyd any day. Floyd has faced actual hard hitting boxers and taken their punches well. McGregor is 0 and 0 in boxing record and also has a 0% chance of hurting Floyd. Euromillions odds are staggeringly attractive in comparison.

have you actually ever boxed or trained striking for mma? theyre not as different as you think. dont get me wrong there are differences but there are a hell of a lot of transferable skills.

Gamebred

Floyd via KO-TKO

pac_man wrote: »

Finish off boxing for good? What are you talking about?

Boxing is dead, full of padded records and champions avoiding each other but thats a whole other debate, their best ever getting ko'd stiff would be the final nail.


What in the name of jaysus are you handing out warnings for that? for critiquing boxing pmsl.

Depp

Conor via DQ

Burial. wrote: »

Incorrect. 509 days since he fought Berto which was't even a year and a half ago. And Floyd took more than that time off inbetween the Hatton and Marquez fight. That was 651 days or just over 1 and 3/4 years. He completely dominated and shutout JMM that night, an all time great boxer. It's funny history might repeat itself. Apologies to JMM for being compared to McGregor though.

Id agree unless that left connects or hes been training boxing on the sly for a few years its an easy night for floyd, he shuts conor out and coasts to a decision. But floyd hitting him hard enough to knock him out not to mention killing him as has been brought up is nonsense. an accumulative ko in the later rounds maybe but that would still take a huge changeup for floyd and though i doubt it I hope hes stupid enough to do that

awec

I don't think he'd be KOd by some spectacular heavy punch that lands but McGregor would get hit often enough that a KO is probably inevitable.

I don't think it would be stupid of Mayweather to go for it either, McGregor is not going to pose a threat on the counter. He may have a great left in MMA but it's no use if he can't land it often enough to do damage.

Depp

Conor via DQ

awec wrote: »

I don't think he'd be KOd by some spectacular heavy punch that lands but McGregor would get hit often enough that a KO is probably inevitable.

I don't think it would be stupid of Mayweather to go for it either, McGregor is not going to pose a threat on the counter. He may have a great left in MMA but it's no use if he can't land it often enough to do damage.

how you throw a left counter to a big right in boxing and mma are almost identical...the punches for the most part are taught and thrown exactly the same. where the differences mainly come is in stance and defense.

Burial.

Floyd via DQ

Depp wrote: »

have you actually ever boxed or trained striking for mma? theyre not as different as you think. dont get me wrong there are differences but there are a hell of a lot of transferable skills.

Boxed as an amateur at a pretty high level when I was a young pup. Have done BJJ and basic MMA for 2 years but wasn't too interested, can't say I know a lot about it or have a tonne of experience but at least I gave it a try. I respect it incredibly but there is a world of difference between Boxing and MMA, I'm sorry.

On the most basic level lets look at McGregor in the octagon. For example, McGregor gets away with leaving his hands out too long after striking as he's facing guys who cannot counterpunch and tbh are sh*t boxers. He throws his left like an arrow and doesn't retract it soon, opting to leave it out to follow through as much as possible. Perfectly fine tactic. He's never in any danger of being countered as guys like Chad Mendes and Eddie Alvarez have probably done about a week's worth of counter punching training in their lives. When he faced Nate Diaz, a guy with some experience in Boxing he started to get hit very easily. Floyd is the greatest counter puncher of all time, age does not take that away from him, certainly against someone like McGregor who has a terrible open guard to boot. Again you can get away with this in MMA as you have to be ready for takedowns and blocking kicks down low, but such is not the case in Boxing.

If Floyd can find holes in guys who hold really high guards, ingrained like second nature for donkeys years God forbid what he can do to a guy who's style is to have his hands low so he stays fluid. You cannot unlearn that in a 20 years never mind in the time between now and a supposed fight date. And you're talking about a guy crossing over fighting a guy with the most technical ability of any boxer of the last 20 years.

Tombo2001

To give this discussion some perspective.......Is there anyone here who thinks McGregor could come any way close to beating Jason Quigley....who has never been a top ten ranked boxer in the world.

yourdeadwright

Floyd via DQ

I don't think McGregor has a chance, Its all about levels here,
Good example is when Gunni was beating balckbets with his ground game and then came up against Mia and looked like someone on there first day ,
Floyd is one of the greatest boxers that has ever lived , McGregor doesn't stand a chance, Its not his fault he's focus on MMA and has trained for what 8/10 years on 3or 4 discipline's of it, Floyd has been boxing since his childhood and is a master at his craft, don't believe the hype Conor he hasn't a prayer,
I'm a huge Connor fan and he would win in a "fight " 10 times out of 10  but not a boxing match not a hope
As I said its all about levels and this is a jump to far,.

Burial.

Floyd via DQ

Tombo2001 wrote: »

To give this discussion some perspective.......Is there anyone here who thinks McGregor could come any way close to beating Jason Quigley....who has never been a top ten ranked boxer in the world.

Bit unfair on Conor as Quigley is much the bigger man but considering Conor is willing to fight at 170lbs in the UFC not a bad hypothetical scenario to make at all.

walshb

Floyd via KO-TKO

Burial. wrote: »

Bit unfair on Conor as Quigley is much the bigger man but considering Conor is willing to fight at 170lbs in the UFC not a bad hypothetical scenario to make at all.

Quigley is not much the bigger man.

Tombo2001

Burial. wrote: »

Bit unfair on Conor as Quigley is much the bigger man but considering Conor is willing to fight at 170lbs in the UFC not a bad hypothetical scenario to make at all.

McGregor at Super Welter and Quigley at Middle? Not much difference....

walshb

Floyd via KO-TKO

I'd back Floyd Senior over McGregor!

walshb

Floyd via KO-TKO

Tombo2001 wrote: »

McGregor at Super Welter and Quigley at Middle? Not much difference....

Quigley fights at 160. He's not that big a MW. Conor may be an inch shorter, but size wise he's as big as Quigley. Conor absolutely boiled down to 145. Huge at the weight. I reckon Conor walks around bigger and heavier than Jason walks around.

Gamebred

Floyd via KO-TKO

Conor has trained with Quigley in LA and I heard he got the better of him.

walshb

Floyd via KO-TKO

Gamebred wrote: »

Conor has trained with Quigley in LA and I heard he got the better of him.

😅

Gamebred

Floyd via KO-TKO

walshb wrote: »

😅

https://twitter.com/jay_quigley/status/811776016905441280

Subcomandante Marcos

Floyd via DQ

Gamebred wrote: »

Conor has trained with Quigley in LA and I heard he got the better of him.

People tried to say Conor "got the better" of Chris Van Heerden as well, and we all know that was total nonsense.

Depp

Conor via DQ

walshb wrote: »

Quigley fights at 160. He's not that big a MW. Conor may be an inch shorter, but size wise he's as big as Quigley. Conor absolutely boiled down to 145. Huge at the weight. I reckon Conor walks around bigger and heavier than Jason walks around.

3 inches, to be fair conor has a longer reach though

Depp

Conor via DQ

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

People tried to say Conor "got the better" of Chris Van Heerden as well, and we all know that was total nonsense.

to be fair all we've seen is about 10 minutes of footage and past that not one of us has a clue...all of this is speculation at this stage...too many people on here stating their opinion as fact in this thread its a joke.

eddie73

Gamebred wrote: »

Conor has trained with Quigley in LA and I heard he got the better of him.

Id be interested in your sources in LA.

Quigley will be breaking into the top 10 now and is one serious boxer. I dont think any non boxer, whether it be MMA, or any other striking combat sports would stand a chance against him in a boxing ring. And before anyone says 'what about a boxer in an MMA ring' no boxer has ever made this claim yet.

walshb

Floyd via KO-TKO

eddie73 wrote: »

Id be interested in your sources in LA.

Did you not see the twitter picture? Case closed. Like they say, a picture paints a thousand words.

walshb

Floyd via KO-TKO

Depp wrote: »

3 inches, to be fair conor has a longer reach though

Going on listings? Maybe it is 3 inches in actuality, but size and frame for me are also important. Anyway, my point was that to claim much the bigger man is off the mark.