UFC/MMA Log 2017

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 15

18 Mar 2017 - Alan Jouban v Gunnar Nelson - Bout Betting

Gunnar Nelson @ 4/11

18 Mar 2017 - Corey Anderson v Jimi Manuwa - Bout Betting

Jimi Manuwa @ 8/13

Stake : €30.00
Estimated Returns : €66.08
Hills

really fancy manuwa as long as this stays standing, don't see anderson being able to survive long if he can't get this to the mat
gunni is on a different level to jouban imo

went according to plan
staked 30
ret 66.08
+36.08

mailburner wrote: »

Bet 16

Manuwa ko
Guni sub
5/1
5
Bv

Posted on site, like that price

hard to imagine I'll ever get a method of victory double up as easy
as this one
staked 5
ret 30
+25

staked 35/ret 96.08/+61.08

Total staked 330/ret 543.75/+213.75

mailburner

BET 17


Mousasi 1.87
40
888


This is probably one that could go pear shaped if weidman decides to go to ground and that is a worry.
I think if it stays standing mousasi will have the edge, weidman is very tough to finish so I'd be possibly thinking pts if he does get it done.
I did expect weidman to be a narrow favourite here so there's no value in that price but the price has been tumbling in the past week so I've taken the best price available.

I would love to bet on rumble but that's heart over head, on the other hand if cormier stands with rumble like he said he will then I'd be all over rumble.
I don't think I'll take cormier's word for it however :P

mailburner

I thought mousasi was fighting this weekend :o:o

Division

You don't rate Weidman too highly?

I couldn't pick a winner but have a feeling this will be done and dusted before the end of the second round.

Fight not to go the distance is 2.2 with Bet victor. What do you think of that?

Division

Also interested to hear your opinion on Cormier v Johnson over 2.5 rounds at 2.2

mailburner

Division wrote: »

You don't rate Weidman too highly?

I couldn't pick a winner but have a feeling this will be done and dusted before the end of the second round.

Fight not to go the distance is 2.2 with Bet victor. What do you think of that?

Never have tbh, I'd have him roughly on par with romero but well behind rockhold and souza
I think it could possibly go the distance as I don't see weidman finishing mousasi and not sure mousasi has the power to put away weidman.


I think maybe I jumped in on mousasi before really thinking about how the fight might pan out, weidman came close to taking romero down time and time again yet failed so you would have to think he would have a lot more success with mousasi and I'm pretty sure he will try the same tactics

whether he sits on mousasi for three is another thing, maybe a sub is a possibility?

Division wrote: »

Also interested to hear your opinion on Cormier v Johnson over 2.5 rounds at 2.2

I really like that price, I think once cormier feels johnson hands he'll go straight back to wrestling but on this occasion I do think rumble will have worked more on this aspect of his game than any other so I think he will hang in there a lot longer and hopefully neutralise cormier's wrestling and possibly come away as champ
I think there's many possible outcomes for this one, I just don't know which one it will be but my gut says that price is value

mailburner

Division wrote: »

Fight not to go the distance is 2.2 with Bet victor. What do you think of that?

I'll tell you what I think makes no sense at all

https://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/chris-weidman-v-gegard-mousasi/method-of-victory


mousasi being two points shorter in some lists to win by sub
I think the chances of mousasi subbing chris are pretty slim, the 8/1 on weidman by sub is good value at 8s in comparison

PopePalpatine

mailburner wrote: »

I'll tell you what I think makes no sense at all

https://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/chris-weidman-v-gegard-mousasi/method-of-victory


mousasi being two points shorter in some lists to win by sub
I think the chances of mousasi subbing chris are pretty slim, the 8/1 on weidman by sub is good value at 8s in comparison

It makes sense if you're a bookie trying to profit out of a punter's loyalty to your brand.

Division

I have been thinking a bit more about both bets I mentioned to you.

I'll just stick with the over 2.5 rounds.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 17


Mousasi 1.87
40
888

I figured this probably isn't worth the risk, more I think about it the more
I feel weidman will get mousasi down and keep him there for long periods.
I might chance the mousasi pts instead with a saver on the weidman sub

mailburner

BET 18

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Robert Whittaker
16-04-2017 01:00
Match Betting
Ronaldo Souza @ 4/6
Your Bets
Win
Single: Ronaldo Souza @ 4/6
1 line at €60.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €60.00
Potential returns: €100.00
pp


I'm taking this now as this price is way too generous, next best is 2/5
they somehow have whittaker at 6/5 when 2s is available elsewhere so time will tell if this is a mistake
I don't think whittaker is even close to being on the same level as souza and expect this to land in the first or second round

mailburner

BET 19

nad narimani 9/5
12
888

just minutes away, don't know a lot about narimani but I'm just eager to
take on pimblett

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 19

nad narimani 9/5
12
888

just minutes away, don't know a lot about narimani but I'm just eager to
take on pimblett

Won
staked 12
ret 33.60
+21.60

That was total domination by narimani who's no great shakes himself, never rated pimblett whose opponent (erosa) was robbed last time out.
I missed a trick there not doing some research on narimani and maybe having a bigger bet on


Total staked 342/ret 577.35/+235.35

mailburner

BET 20

€10.00 Single
Oliveira, Charles @ 9/4
Stake: €10.00Est. Returns: €32.50
stan james

Think this fight will be a lot closer than the odds suggest, not been impressed by brooks thus far and oliveira has been in there with the very best fighters like pettis, holloway, cerrone and edgar to name a few
under 2s now in a lot of places, was as big as 11/4 a few weeks back

mailburner

BET 21

cormier by sub 5/2
10
888

I have to let my head rule my heart on this one, price is over double the rumble ko and it'll be one or the other surely
I do hope I'm wrong though

mailburner

BET 22

cote
jury
30 double at 2.11
888


I think jury should have far too much for de la torre
I can't remember the last time I was impressed with alves, really poor v miller and even though back at ww I just think cote has more ways to win this

mailburner

BET 23

mousasi on pts 5/2
10

weidman by sub 8/1
5
skybet

I think if mousasi wins this it'll probably be on pts unless that ko weidman suffered against romero changes things
If weidman wins this I would imagine it'll either be pts or sub, the sub for me is attractively priced at 8/1 so went with that one
I feel this is a fight weidman has to win and he'll try and keep this on the mat for 15 and just maybe there'll be a sub in there at some stage

mailburner

BET 24

The mugbet to finish for me unless something jumps out at me later


2 returns 87.26 (888)

cormier sub
usman dec
jury ko
over 2.5 alves cote
over 2.5 brooks oliveira

mailburner

BET 25


cormier by sub 5/2
10
888

same again, just want to top on on this at these odds which I like a lot
I'm just not convinced rumble will be able to go the distance should he have to, cormier will break him at some stage if rumble doesn't do it in the first two imo

mailburner

BET 26


UFC 210 Bet Boosts
Daniel Cormier to win by Round 4 or 5 Submission (£10 max) - DC v Rumble
(UFC 210 - Match)
Odds: 10/1
Stake: 3.00
Possible Return: 33.00

Daniel Cormier v Anthony Johnson
Rear Naked Choke
(Submission Outcome - Match)
Odds: 4/1
Stake: 4.00
Possible Return: 20.00
betv

nice odds on the round 4/5 sub imo, at this rate I probably should be rooting
for dc but sadly I'm not

Division

If you get a chance watch the Weidman fight and tell me if you think the fight should have been stopped.

Under the new rules both head kicks are legal and the referee mistakenly stopped the fight as he thought they were illegal.

I wonder if the fight was allowed to continue (without the referee stopping it) would Weidman have been able to survive until the end of the round or would the result have been the same?

-

Rumble retired after the fight - clearly he wasn't up for the fight at all, he tried to grapple with DC and never took any opportunity to get out of any of the clinches.

John Jones might be up next for DC.

callaway92

Division wrote: »

If you get a chance watch the Weidman fight and tell me if you think the fight should have been stopped.

Under the new rules both head kicks are legal and the referee mistakenly stopped the fight as he thought they were illegal.

I wonder if the fight was allowed to continue (without the referee stopping it) would Weidman have been able to survive until the end of the round or would the result have been the same?

-

Rumble retired after the fight - clearly he wasn't up for the fight at all, he tried to grapple with DC and never took any opportunity to get out of any of the clinches.

John Jones might be up next for DC.

No the Weidman fight should not have been stopped. The second they discovered the 2nd knee was legal the fighters should have been put back in the position that it occurred.

Poor decisions by the NYSAC. I wouldn't be blaming Miragliotta too much.

mailburner

Division wrote: »

If you get a chance watch the Weidman fight and tell me if you think the fight should have been stopped.

Under the new rules both head kicks are legal and the referee mistakenly stopped the fight as he thought they were illegal.

I wonder if the fight was allowed to continue (without the referee stopping it) would Weidman have been able to survive until the end of the round or would the result have been the same?

-
.

No
I can't see why they couldn't have let it go on and do think weidman would probably have got to the end of the round, both looked pretty tired to me.
The more I watch it the more I do think weidman would have been fine to continue.
It's hard to know how the fight would have panned out in the third, my own opinion would be that maybe weidman might have gotten enough takedowns to just about shade it

I don't regret too much changing my mind on mousasi as It did look like he was going to spend a lot of time on his back esp after the first

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 17


Mousasi 1.87
40
888


This is probably one that could go pear shaped if weidman decides to go to ground and that is a worry.
I think if it stays standing mousasi will have the edge, weidman is very tough to finish so I'd be possibly thinking pts if he does get it done.
I did expect weidman to be a narrow favourite here so there's no value in that price but the price has been tumbling in the past week so I've taken the best price available.

I would love to bet on rumble but that's heart over head, on the other hand if cormier stands with rumble like he said he will then I'd be all over rumble.
I don't think I'll take cormier's word for it however :P

mailburner wrote: »

I figured this probably isn't worth the risk, more I think about it the more
I feel weidman will get mousasi down and keep him there for long periods.
I might chance the mousasi pts instead with a saver on the weidman sub

-1.20 on that one
just gonna add the loss to the log rather than the stakes here.
was glad after the first round I changed my mind, couldn't have seen that
outcome coming

mailburner wrote: »

BET 20

€10.00 Single
Oliveira, Charles @ 9/4
Stake: €10.00Est. Returns: €32.50
stan james

Think this fight will be a lot closer than the odds suggest, not been impressed by brooks thus far and oliveira has been in there with the very best fighters like pettis, holloway, cerrone and edgar to name a few
under 2s now in a lot of places, was as big as 11/4 a few weeks back

staked 10
ret 32.50
+22.50
never imagined it would come that easy, had me wondering what price
the sub was

mailburner wrote: »

BET 21

cormier by sub 5/2
10
888

I have to let my head rule my heart on this one, price is over double the rumble ko and it'll be one or the other surely
I do hope I'm wrong though

won
staked 10
ret 35
+25

bizarre tactics by rumble, never in a million years could anyone have
seen that coming, after round one it looked like there would only be one winner
Anyone backing the rumble ko would have been tearing their hair out

mailburner wrote: »

BET 22

cote
jury
30 double at 2.11
888


I think jury should have far too much for de la torre
I can't remember the last time I was impressed with alves, really poor v miller and even though back at ww I just think cote has more ways to win this

-30
alves looked good back at ww, there looked to be only one outcome after round one, was torn between cote and over 2.5 rounds in this one, maybe the latter might have been safer given how tough these two are, easy say that now however.
jury got it done easily

mailburner wrote: »

BET 23

mousasi on pts 5/2
10

weidman by sub 8/1
5
skybet

I think if mousasi wins this it'll probably be on pts unless that ko weidman suffered against romero changes things
If weidman wins this I would imagine it'll either be pts or sub, the sub for me is attractively priced at 8/1 so went with that one
I feel this is a fight weidman has to win and he'll try and keep this on the mat for 15 and just maybe there'll be a sub in there at some stage

-15

mailburner wrote: »

BET 24

The mugbet to finish for me unless something jumps out at me later


2 returns 87.26 (888)

cormier sub
usman dec
jury ko
over 2.5 alves cote
over 2.5 brooks oliveira

-2
just the brooks oliveira fight lets this down

mailburner wrote: »

BET 25


cormier by sub 5/2
10
888

same again, just want to top on on this at these odds which I like a lot
I'm just not convinced rumble will be able to go the distance should he have to, cormier will break him at some stage if rumble doesn't do it in the first two imo

won
staked 10
ret 35
+25

mailburner wrote: »

BET 26



UFC 210 Bet Boosts
Daniel Cormier to win by Round 4 or 5 Submission (£10 max) - DC v Rumble
(UFC 210 - Match)
Odds: 10/1
Stake: 3.00
Possible Return: 33.00

Daniel Cormier v Anthony Johnson
Rear Naked Choke
(Submission Outcome - Match)
Odds: 4/1
Stake: 4.00
Possible Return: 20.00
betv

nice odds on the round 4/5 sub imo, at this rate I probably should be rooting
for dc but sadly I'm not

staked 7
ret 20
+13

staked 85.20/ret 122.50/+37.30

Total staked 427.20/ret 699.85/+272.65

mailburner

BET 27



I like waterson for this one, 9 sub wins and 11/2 for a sub seems nice
I'm not a big fan of rose and just think waterson is a better all round fighter

mailburner

BET 28

cummings by sub 11/4
6

waterson sub 5/1
souza sub 7/5
elliot pts 6/5
2 treble @ 31.68

waterson sub
souza sub
elliot pts
cummings sub
4x1 trebles
1 accum @ 118.8

888

I like the price on the cummings sub, a ko also a possibility of course but coy is tough although not on cummings level imo

mailburner

BET 29

All of these not to go the distance
sanchez smith
souza whittaker
waterson namajunas
cummings coy
green mamomedov to go the distance
elliot pts
2 @ 28.06
888


UFC Matches Michelle Waterson v Rose Namajunas
16-04-2017 02:00
Method & Round Combo
Michelle Waterson Submission & Round 2 @ 16/1

UFC Matches Michelle Waterson v Rose Namajunas
16-04-2017 02:00
Method & Round Combo
Michelle Waterson Submission & Round 1 @ 10/1

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Robert Whittaker
16-04-2017 01:30
Method & Round Combo
Ronaldo Souza Submission & Round 2 @ 13/2

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Robert Whittaker
16-04-2017 01:30
Method & Round Combo
Ronaldo Souza Submission & Round 1 @ 3/1

UFC Matches Zak Cummings v Nathan Coy
15-04-2017 21:20
Method & Round Combo
Zak Cummings Submission & Round 2 @ 17/2

UFC Matches Zak Cummings v Nathan Coy
15-04-2017 21:20
Method & Round Combo
Zak Cummings Submission & Round 1 @ 5/1

Treble
8 lines at €0.50 per line
Total stake for this bet: €4.00
Potential returns: €605.62
pp

mailburner

BET 30

reis 6/1
3

reis by sub 16s
2
888

maybe a hint of desperation in these

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 18

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Robert Whittaker
16-04-2017 01:00
Match Betting
Ronaldo Souza @ 4/6
Your Bets
Win
Single: Ronaldo Souza @ 4/6
1 line at €60.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €60.00
Potential returns: €100.00
pp


I'm taking this now as this price is way too generous, next best is 2/5
they somehow have whittaker at 6/5 when 2s is available elsewhere so time will tell if this is a mistake
I don't think whittaker is even close to being on the same level as souza and expect this to land in the first or second round

I couldn't have been more wrong, paddy power know their stuff, was in shock watching that
-60

mailburner wrote: »

BET 27



I like waterson for this one, 9 sub wins and 11/2 for a sub seems nice
I'm not a big fan of rose and just think waterson is a better all round fighter

miles out again, rose was superb
-27

mailburner wrote: »

BET 28

cummings by sub 11/4
6

waterson sub 5/1
souza sub 7/5
elliot pts 6/5
2 treble @ 31.68

waterson sub
souza sub
elliot pts
cummings sub
4x1 trebles
1 accum @ 118.8

888

I like the price on the cummings sub, a ko also a possibility of course but coy is tough although not on cummings level imo

cummings gets it done, no joy besides
staked 13
ret 22.50
+9.50

mailburner wrote: »

BET 29

All of these not to go the distance
sanchez smith
souza whittaker
waterson namajunas
cummings coy
green mamomedov to go the distance
elliot pts
2 @ 28.06
888


UFC Matches Michelle Waterson v Rose Namajunas
16-04-2017 02:00
Method & Round Combo
Michelle Waterson Submission & Round 2 @ 16/1

UFC Matches Michelle Waterson v Rose Namajunas
16-04-2017 02:00
Method & Round Combo
Michelle Waterson Submission & Round 1 @ 10/1

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Robert Whittaker
16-04-2017 01:30
Method & Round Combo
Ronaldo Souza Submission & Round 2 @ 13/2

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Robert Whittaker
16-04-2017 01:30
Method & Round Combo
Ronaldo Souza Submission & Round 1 @ 3/1

UFC Matches Zak Cummings v Nathan Coy
15-04-2017 21:20
Method & Round Combo
Zak Cummings Submission & Round 2 @ 17/2

UFC Matches Zak Cummings v Nathan Coy
15-04-2017 21:20
Method & Round Combo
Zak Cummings Submission & Round 1 @ 5/1

Treble
8 lines at €0.50 per line
Total stake for this bet: €4.00
Potential returns: €605.62
pp

staked 6
ret 56.13
+50.13
I thought I was elected and possibly in for a great night when elliott and cummings obliged
nailed one of these small accums to avoid a disaster altogether

mailburner wrote: »

BET 30

reis 6/1
3

reis by sub 16s
2
888

maybe a hint of desperation in these

what was I thinking?
-5

staked 111/ret 78.63/-32.37

Total staked 538.20/ret 778.48/+240.28

I got lucky getting away with losing that amount, can't be too unhappy overall but what's frustrating me is that all my biggest stakes have actually lost (souza/grasso/rashad)
I had a cert of an accum picked out last night at 6/4 but figured it wasn't worth the risk as one usually lets me down and that's exactly what what would have happened again (cummings, elliott, dj and sanchez)

mailburner

BET 30

Swanson by ko/tko 4/5
30
fred


It's usually when I'm most confident about a fight that I've been wrong so far this year and it's the reason I'm not putting more on this, if swanson can't put artem away I'll be amazed
This seems like a total mismatch and I think cub will have one thing is his head which will be to take the head off artem