UFC/MMA Log 2017

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BET 86

17 Sep 2017 - Anthony Smith v Hector Lombard - Method of Result
Anthony Smith By KO/TKO/DQ @ 2/1
Stake : €16.00
Estimated Returns : €48.00
Hills


Only dilemma was either this or go bigger on the win at 4/5, a fighter on the up v a fighter on the decline is the way I see it.
If smith doesn't get caught in the first he will cruise to victory imo, just hoping he pushes the pace and gets the ko.

mailburner

BET 87

Mercier by sub 4/1
6
PP

Hard fight to call but with 8 sub wins out of 9 I think this represents value.


I got a freebet from 888 which I'm not gonna log which is this and the above bet in a double at slightly under 12s.

mailburner

BET 88

oam sub and round one 9/1
oam sub and round two 12/1
smith ko and round two 7/1
smith ko and round three 14/1
rock sub and round one 6/1
rock sub and round two 17/2

12x50c doubles
8x 50c trebles
pp



I just can't help myself with this one, looks good on paper to me

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 86

17 Sep 2017 - Anthony Smith v Hector Lombard - Method of Result
Anthony Smith By KO/TKO/DQ @ 2/1
Stake : €16.00
Estimated Returns : €48.00
Hills


Only dilemma was either this or go bigger on the win at 4/5, a fighter on the up v a fighter on the decline is the way I see it.
If smith doesn't get caught in the first he will cruise to victory imo, just hoping he pushes the pace and gets the ko.

ko came in the third for smith
staked 16
ret 48
+32

mailburner wrote: »

BET 87

Mercier by sub 4/1
6
PP

Hard fight to call but with 8 sub wins out of 9 I think this represents value.


I got a freebet from 888 which I'm not gonna log which is this and the above bet in a double at slightly under 12s.

mercier gets it on pts
-6

mailburner wrote: »

BET 88

oam sub and round one 9/1
oam sub and round two 12/1
smith ko and round two 7/1
smith ko and round three 14/1
rock sub and round one 6/1
rock sub and round two 17/2

12x50c doubles
8x 50c trebles
pp



I just can't help myself with this one, looks good on paper to me

Smith finishes in the third.
Rock gets the win by sub, had no idea so two winners there, shocked but delighted.
Oam never looked like getting a sub.
staked 10
ret 71.25
+61.25

Staked 32/ret 119.25/+87.25

Total staked 1532/ret 1943.84/+411.84



Edit, I had the ambitious bet down as a loss as I thought rock won by ko, however it seems branch tapped so it counts
as a sub win.

mailburner

BET 89


Gadelha v Andrade
Method Of Victory
Gadelha, Claudia Points EVS
Total stake € 30.00
Estimated return € 60.00
Betfred


I think if claudia wins this is the only way she can win, figure she'll be good enough to beat andrade although I do think andrade is a tad big at 5/2

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BET 90

€5.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
Ishihara v Dy
Method Of Victory
Dy, Rolando Points 11/4
Total stake € 5.00
Estimated return € 18.75





Abe v Lim
Method Of Victory
Abe, Daichi KO, TKO or Disqualification 6/4
Total stake € 8.00
Estimated return € 20.00




Method Of Victory
Saint Preux, Ovince Points 4/1
Total stake € 4.00
Estimated return € 20.00


€1.00 Accumulator
Market Selection Price Hcp
Gadelha v Andrade
Method Of Victory
Gadelha, Claudia Points EVS
Ishihara v Dy
Method Of Victory
Dy, Rolando Points 11/4
Abe v Lim
Method Of Victory
Abe, Daichi KO, TKO or Disqualification 6/4
Saint Preux v Okami
Method Of Victory
Saint Preux, Ovince Points 4/1
Total stake € 1.00
Estimated return € 93.75


Full stake € 18.00
Full estimated return € 152.50
betfred


I nearly backed okami but at lw I'm thinking it's a pretty tall order.
Ishihara was so bad v artem that I'm happy to take a punt on dy and lim has been knocked out in his last two and being
knocked out by neil magny doesn't inspire confidence

mailburner

Blanks all round there, andrade far too good for gadelha.
Dy was heading for a pts win until he got docked a point, abe won but on pts sadly and osp got it done rather easily and by sub.

-48 overall

Total staked 1580/ret 1943.84/+363.84

mailburner

BET 90


ferguson
werdum
50 at 2.02
stan james


Werdum on pts 2/1
8


My thinking here is that werdum is an absolute certainty, I don't really know good lee is but do think taking a big scalp like ferguson is a big ask.
If Lee doesn't clip ferguson in the first two it'll be a long an painful night for kevin lee.

It's a double with more risk than I like but am simply keeping the faith that ferguson is as good as I think he is and unstoppable in the latter rounds.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 90


ferguson
werdum
50 at 2.02
stan james


Werdum on pts 2/1
8


My thinking here is that werdum is an absolute certainty, I don't really know good lee is but do think taking a big scalp like ferguson is a big ask.
If Lee doesn't clip ferguson in the first two it'll be a long an painful night for kevin lee.

It's a double with more risk than I like but am simply keeping the faith that ferguson is as good as I think he is and unstoppable in the latter rounds.

lewis out injured, werdum the same price to beat harris which was surprising but I didn't want to go in again, sub in hindsight was probably a great bet.

Just a single on tony so at 4/9, lee had his chance in the first and it was one way traffic after the second, slightly regret not doing the sub but was torn between the ko/sub.

staked 50/ret 72.22/+22.22

Total staked 1630/ret 2016.06/+386.06

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BET 91

Till to beat cerrone at 13/10
35
888

This is a big step up for till but I think he takes it in his stride, hugely confident in his own ability and very similiar fight styles, think he takes it by pts or a late finish possibly.

PopePalpatine

He's 27/20 on BetStars.

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PopePalpatine wrote: »

He's 27/20 on BetStars.

forgot I actually had a betstars account :P

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BET 92

cerrone by sub 9/2
5
hills

big value there if cerrone wants nothing to do with till standing.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 91

Till to beat cerrone at 13/10
35
888

This is a big step up for till but I think he takes it in his stride, hugely confident in his own ability and very similiar fight styles, think he takes it by pts or a late finish possibly.

mailburner wrote: »

BET 92

cerrone by sub 9/2
5
hills

big value there if cerrone wants nothing to do with till standing.

Absolutely chuffed with that, God that was easier that I could ever have imagined.

staked 40/ret 80.50/+40.50



Total staked 1670/ret 2096.06/+426.56

mailburner

BET 93

Colby Covington 1.85
50
betstars


I'm convinced this is a bad match up for maia who will struggle badly should he fail to get covington down the same way he failed v woodley.
I don't see him having much luck with colby either sadly.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 93

Colby Covington 1.85
50
betstars


I'm convinced this is a bad match up for maia who will struggle badly should he fail to get covington down the same way he failed v woodley.
I don't see him having much luck with colby either sadly.

That went like I thought it might unfortunately.

staked 50/ret 85/+35

Total staked 1720/ret 2181.06/+461.06

edit, previously total should have been +426.06.

mailburner

BET 94

Oleinik by sub or ko 5/1
5
bet365


oleinik by sub round 2 and round 3 14s+25s
2 on each
pp

45 sub wins by oleinik, didn't look great v travis browne but tough as nails and if this goes past the first I think blaydes could get tired trying to take his head off and hopefully that'll mean a late sub for me, bit of value in that price I think.

mailburner

BET 95

gsp 1.95
35
888

happy to be getting these odds on gsp despite the 4 year absence, probably takes bisping down for a lot of this and if anyone can come back after an absence this long it's gsp (or cruz obv)

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BET 96

dillashaw on pts 11/4 (better available)
10

The only way dillashaw wins this, for me a coin toss.

mailburner

BET 97

Thomson pts 13/8
10
skyb

gall by sub 5/2
10
skyb


thomson pts
gall sub
gsp pts
dillashaw pts
2 (238.88)
skybet


same four with oleinik win
1
skybet (447.89 returns)

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BET 98

joanna ko
gsp pts
8 (ret 66.12)

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 94

Oleinik by sub or ko 5/1
5
bet365


oleinik by sub round 2 and round 3 14s+25s
2 on each
pp

45 sub wins by oleinik, didn't look great v travis browne but tough as nails and if this goes past the first I think blaydes could get tired trying to take his head off and hopefully that'll mean a late sub for me, bit of value in that price I think.

-9

mailburner wrote: »

BET 95

gsp 1.95
35
888

happy to be getting these odds on gsp despite the 4 year absence, probably takes bisping down for a lot of this and if anyone can come back after an absence this long it's gsp (or cruz obv)

staked 35
ret 68.25
+33.25

mailburner wrote: »

BET 96

dillashaw on pts 11/4 (better available)
10

The only way dillashaw wins this, for me a coin toss.

Always fancied tj for this, gutted I just didn't take the win odds, so many fancied cody which threw me off a little and it was almost justified at the
end of round one.
-10

mailburner wrote: »

BET 97

Thomson pts 13/8
10
skyb

gall by sub 5/2
10
skyb


thomson pts
gall sub
gsp pts
dillashaw pts
2 (238.88)
skybet


same four with oleinik win
1
skybet (447.89 returns)

This looked safe after round one, gall a one trick pony.
staked 23
ret 26.25
+3.25

mailburner wrote: »

BET 98

joanna ko
gsp pts
8 (ret 66.12)

Wow!
-8


staked 85/ret 94.50/+9.50

Just a little bit disappointed not to have made more on this as tj and gsp were my only planned bets a week ago, pointless trying to predict outcomes also in this very unpredictable sport, still relieved to be ahead after a bad start.

Total staked 1805/ret 2275.56/+470.56

mailburner

BET 99

hill
albini
24@ evens
sunbet

slightly better available but just have a few quid in that account. (betv 11/10)

I don't rate ansaroff and hill did very well v andrade, albini puts arlovski to sleep for me, quick hands and will prob go after aa.
I'm struggling to see past either and probably should bet more but I've a few more to do yet.

mailburner

BET 100


Dustin Poirier @ 1/1
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Junior Albini @ 2/5
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Cezar Ferreira @ 2/5
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Matt Brown @ 2/7
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Raphael Assuncao @ 1/3
(To Win the Bout - Match)
John Dodson @ 10/11
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Angela Hill @ 1/2
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Tatiana Suarez @ 4/11
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Multiple Type: 8 fold
Stake: 3.00
Possible Return: 78.72
betv

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BET 101


Dodson 1.95
20

Poirier evens
20
betv


The minute I looked at these I thought poirier and dodson, not gonna go looking at methods like I did with dillashaw and I can't really offer any explanation as to why I really fancy these either other than I think dodson might have a speed advantage and i've been more impressed with poirier recently.
I think it's fair to say though that the pettis of old would have put poirier away.

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BET 102

One last one.

Junior albini to win by ko in round one 2/1
10
skybet

I also think albini to win in round one or two at 7/10 looks solid (888) but I've enough invested.


albini to win by ko round one
hill pts 11/8
dodson pts 5/2
assuncao pts 5/6
guida lauzon to go the distance 8/11

5x80c fourfolds
1eu accum
skbyet

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BET 103

Can't resist, big price imo if this turns into a brawl.

sanchez pts 5/1
5
888

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 99

hill
albini
24@ evens
sunbet

slightly better available but just have a few quid in that account. (betv 11/10)

I don't rate ansaroff and hill did very well v andrade, albini puts arlovski to sleep for me, quick hands and will prob go after aa.
I'm struggling to see past either and probably should bet more but I've a few more to do yet.

-24
That is why I rarely go big on a double, hill simply second best whereas ansaroff improved a lot in this, as for albini fecker look absolutely useless here.

mailburner wrote: »

BET 100


Dustin Poirier @ 1/1
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Junior Albini @ 2/5
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Cezar Ferreira @ 2/5
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Matt Brown @ 2/7
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Raphael Assuncao @ 1/3
(To Win the Bout - Match)
John Dodson @ 10/11
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Angela Hill @ 1/2
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Tatiana Suarez @ 4/11
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Multiple Type: 8 fold
Stake: 3.00
Possible Return: 78.72
betv

-3

mailburner wrote: »

BET 101


Dodson 1.95
20

Poirier evens
20
betv


The minute I looked at these I thought poirier and dodson, not gonna go looking at methods like I did with dillashaw and I can't really offer any explanation as to why I really fancy these either other than I think dodson might have a speed advantage and i've been more impressed with poirier recently.
I think it's fair to say though that the pettis of old would have put poirier away.

staked 40
ret 40

dodson dropped a split, couldn't call it myself and poirier looks an improved fighter or maybe it a mix of that and pettis not being the fighter of old.

mailburner wrote: »

BET 102

One last one.

Junior albini to win by ko in round one 2/1
10
skybet

I also think albini to win in round one or two at 7/10 looks solid (888) but I've enough invested.


albini to win by ko round one
hill pts 11/8
dodson pts 5/2
assuncao pts 5/6
guida lauzon to go the distance 8/11

5x80c fourfolds
1eu accum
skbyet

-15
Am only glad the albini ko was trading at a best of 4/6 and not close to evens.

mailburner wrote: »

BET 103

Can't resist, big price imo if this turns into a brawl.

sanchez pts 5/1
5
888

-5
The old chin is gone with sanchez although that elbow would have knocked out a horse.

staked 87/ret 40/-47

Total staked 1892/ret 2315.56/+423.56

I've no regrets with this one despite the loss, dodson fight could have gone either way and I figured with aa on a five loss streak and albini coming of a ko victory it was going to be a bad night for aa, albini's performance was just slow and lacklustre, shocked at how bad he looked.

mailburner

BET 104



I would be very surprised if tybura was able to beat werdum although there's probably a slim chance of a ko, all of werdums losses were against top guys (overeem x2, jds, miocic, arlovski (2007;) kharintonov and nogueira and
although tybura is coming off his biggest win v arlovski, it was against a fighter who's lost 5/6.

I fancy this price will drop a bit before fight time, pp go 1/2 and skybet go 2/5 so I feel I've got a great price on this one.

mailburner

BET 105

nik lentz 9/2
5
coral


Will brooks has to be one of the most disappointing champions to come from bellator, hasn't looked the same fighter at all.
I couldn't say I fancy lentz to beat him but I have nik priced up around 3/1 maybe so whilst this fight should suit brooks, price on lentz is just too big for me.