UFC/MMA Log 2017

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 104



I would be very surprised if tybura was able to beat werdum although there's probably a slim chance of a ko, all of werdums losses were against top guys (overeem x2, jds, miocic, arlovski (2007;) kharintonov and nogueira and
although tybura is coming off his biggest win v arlovski, it was against a fighter who's lost 5/6.

I fancy this price will drop a bit before fight time, pp go 1/2 and skybet go 2/5 so I feel I've got a great price on this one.

staked 60
ret 103.63
+43.63

mailburner wrote: »

BET 105

nik lentz 9/2
5
coral


Will brooks has to be one of the most disappointing champions to come from bellator, hasn't looked the same fighter at all.
I couldn't say I fancy lentz to beat him but I have nik priced up around 3/1 maybe so whilst this fight should suit brooks, price on lentz is just too big for me.

staked 5
ret 27.50
+22.50

The win price on lentz was too big all right, never much of a worry with werdum either, nice when everything goes like you hope it might.

staked 65/ret 131.13/+66.13

Total staked 1957/ret 2446.69/+489.69

mailburner

BET 106

Under 3.5 rounds 1.73
Kelvin Gastelum v Michael Bisping - 25/11/2017
Stake £40.00
Estimated Return:£69.09
coral

too soon for bisping imo, under 2.5 at 11/10 was the plan all week though, he'll do well to survive this long imo.

mailburner

BET 107

guan wang 13/10
10
betway

I don't rate caceres which is my main motivation here.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 106

Under 3.5 rounds 1.73
Kelvin Gastelum v Michael Bisping - 25/11/2017
Stake £40.00
Estimated Return:£69.09
coral

too soon for bisping imo, under 2.5 at 11/10 was the plan all week though, he'll do well to survive this long imo.

staked 40
ret 69.09
+29.09

mailburner wrote: »

BET 107

guan wang 13/10
10
betway

I don't rate caceres which is my main motivation here.

guan wins by split
staked 10
ret 23
+13

staked 50/ret 92.09/+42.09

Total staked 2007/ret 2538.78/+531.78


Fight probably came too soon for bisping but either way I still think he would have struggled with gastelum.
I fancied the gast ko in round one or two but couldn't decide between either one (5/1+13/2) so just left it.
Caceres came up short which was good considering he was saved by the bell in round one.

mailburner

BET 108

Tuf Finale

honchak
ostovich
25 at 1.87 (bet 365, pp best odds 1.95)

roxy 7/4
10
365



I'm thinking honchak is a much better fighter than sourpuss murphy and will imo have little difficulty beating her, not familiar with the girl ostovich fights but I was impressed with ostovich on tuf.

roxy was the number one seed in this and was beaten by the best fighter on the show who was ruled out yesterday, am very surprised she's this much of an underdog.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 108

Tuf Finale

honchak
ostovich
25 at 1.87 (bet 365, pp best odds 1.95)

roxy 7/4
10
365



I'm thinking honchak is a much better fighter than sourpuss murphy and will imo have little difficulty beating her, not familiar with the girl ostovich fights but I was impressed with ostovich on tuf.

roxy was the number one seed in this and was beaten by the best fighter on the show who was ruled out yesterday, am very surprised she's this much of an underdog.

ostovich wins/barb loses a split, got murphy completely wrong, she looked pretty good in there.
Roxy was always second best here

35 poorer.


Total staked 2042/ret 2538.78/+496.78

mailburner

BET 109

holloway by ko/tko 11/10
35
skybet


can't see any other outcome tbh.

mailburner

BET 110

alex oliveira by ko 21/10
11
skybet

don't rate medeiros, cowboy has heavy hands.

mailburner

BET 111

al hassan round one 12/5
12
coral

al hassan round two 9/2
2.50
888


This lad will have one thing in mind which is to take his opponents head off.

mailburner

BET 112

ngannou round one 21/10
12
coral

ngannou round two 9/2
2.50
888

ngannou is the real deal imo, the reem will do well to get past the first but experience might get him there hence
the cover bet.

mailburner

BET 113

ngannou round one
max by ko
cowboy ko
al hassan round one
2 euro (ret 111.12)
coral

mailburner

BET 114

eddie pts 4/1
3
888

justin round three 12/1
2
365

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 109

holloway by ko/tko 11/10
35
skybet


can't see any other outcome tbh.

rarely a worry
staked 35
ret 73.50
+38.50

mailburner wrote: »

BET 110

alex oliveira by ko 21/10
11
skybet

don't rate medeiros, cowboy has heavy hands.

so close but was done by the third round, medeiros has some chin
-11

mailburner wrote: »

BET 111

al hassan round one 12/5
12
coral

al hassan round two 9/2
2.50
888


This lad will have one thing in mind which is to take his opponents head off.

got lucky with that one, owe herb dean a pint.
staked 14.50
ret 40.80
+26.30

mailburner wrote: »

BET 112

ngannou round one 21/10
12
coral

ngannou round two 9/2
2.50
888

ngannou is the real deal imo, the reem will do well to get past the first but experience might get him there hence
the cover bet.

one scary man there
staked 14.50
ret 37.20
+22.70

mailburner wrote: »

BET 113

ngannou round one
max by ko
cowboy ko
al hassan round one
2 euro (ret 111.12)
coral

so close
-2

mailburner wrote: »

BET 114

eddie pts 4/1
3
888

justin round three 12/1
2
365

close but no cigar, was sure it was going all the way at the start of the third.
-5

staked 82/ret 151.50/+69.50


Total staked 2124/ret 2690.28/+566.28

mailburner

BET 115


Ortega 9/10
40
888

ortega round three 11/1
3

ortega to win in rounds 3-4 15/2
4

ortega by ko round three 33/1
1


I fancied ortega for this as soon as I saw this match up, think he has more ways to win, by sub,pts maybe not be ko though.
I was very tempted to go for the sub win but 5/2 isn't the most decent but he is a whizz on the mat.
I see the majority of the pundits are favouring swanson here and I can see why but for me ortega is a fighter on the up and swanson has been at this level for a long time without improving imo.

PopePalpatine

An Ortega R3 KO is 55/1 with Paddy. It's a shame Oddschecker don't have a "Round & Method combo" page for UFC fights.

mailburner

PopePalpatine wrote: »

An Ortega R3 KO is 55/1 with Paddy. It's a shame Oddschecker don't have a "Round & Method combo" page for UFC fights.

I agree
I was too lazy to check that out on individual sites, fair difference there

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 115


Ortega 9/10
40
888

ortega round three 11/1
3

ortega to win in rounds 3-4 15/2
4

ortega by ko round three 33/1
1


I fancied ortega for this as soon as I saw this match up, think he has more ways to win, by sub,pts maybe not be ko though.
I was very tempted to go for the sub win but 5/2 isn't the most decent but he is a whizz on the mat.
I see the majority of the pundits are favouring swanson here and I can see why but for me ortega is a fighter on the up and swanson has been at this level for a long time without improving imo.

ortega by sub in round two sadly, figured if swanson survived into the third I'd have been elected.

staked 48/ret 76/+28


Total staked 2172/ret 2766.28/+594.28

mailburner

BET 116

perry v ponzinibbio


Perry 13/8
23

perry round one 5/1
4

perry round two 8/1
3
bet 365


I thought perry might have been a slight favourite for this bout so am quite happy to take 13/8.
I think it's a very close fight to call but perry has never been stopped, ponzinibbio has been stopped twice.
I think perry has a concrete chin and that might just be the difference between the two.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 116

perry v ponzinibbio


Perry 13/8
23

perry round one 5/1
4

perry round two 8/1
3
bet 365


I thought perry might have been a slight favourite for this bout so am quite happy to take 13/8.
I think it's a very close fight to call but perry has never been stopped, ponzinibbio has been stopped twice.
I think perry has a concrete chin and that might just be the difference between the two.

perry loses on pts, had nothing left in the third and deciding round.
I can't believe this went the distance

-30

Total staked 2202/ret 2766.28/+564.28

mailburner

BET 117

condit
calvillo
24 double (ret 55.99)
888

My idea of a banker double, condit on a different level to magny, thought he'd be shorter myself and esparza is probably going nowhere in the division.

mailburner

BET 118

Akhmedov 9/5
10
888

I think the price is a tad big, he's pretty tough, lost a few quid opposing him last time out.

mailburner

BET 119

barbosa by ko 9/2
5

holly holm 11/4
5

2 double


barosa by ko round one 8/1
de la rosa by sub round one 12/1
2 on each
1 double
888



I think barbosa is a nice price but am aware if khabib gets him down in the first it'll be all over but if edson can keep it standing I thing he could rock khabib but does need to get it done early.
Not sure about holly but if she weathers the early storm I do think a pts win is a possibility.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 117

condit
calvillo
24 double (ret 55.99)
888

My idea of a banker double, condit on a different level to magny, thought he'd be shorter myself and esparza is probably going nowhere in the division.

condit a shadow of his former self, calvillo...I don't know
-24

mailburner wrote: »

BET 118

Akhmedov 9/5
10
888

I think the price is a tad big, he's pretty tough, lost a few quid opposing him last time out.

draw
void

mailburner wrote: »

BET 119

barbosa by ko 9/2
5

holly holm 11/4
5

2 double


barosa by ko round one 8/1
de la rosa by sub round one 12/1
2 on each
1 double
888



I think barbosa is a nice price but am aware if khabib gets him down in the first it'll be all over but if edson can keep it standing I thing he could rock khabib but does need to get it done early.
Not sure about holly but if she weathers the early storm I do think a pts win is a possibility.

barbosa outclassed everywhere here, holm gave it a good go, just met a better fighter
-17

-41


Total staked 2243/ret 2766.28/+523.28


I think I'd have taken that at the start of the year, if I could do something similiar with football I'm sure there would at least be some interest.