So I went for another ICE - please don't hate me.

KCross

zilog_jones wrote: »

If your mileage is small and you're rarely/never doing long distance driving then a used EV makes a lot of sense, especially as a second car. If you're doing say a <80 km commute you'd never need to worry about public chargers. I know people who have EVs for exactly this purpose.

Buying a new car is financial madness either way If you're looking at this solely as a money-saving exercise, then just keep your old car for as long as possible.

Thats the bracket Im in!

My "small" mileage comment was directed more to someone who has a small petrol car and looking to save money by moving to EV.... I dont think that would be the right thing to do for them, IMO. They would probably be better off driving their small car into the ground.

Maybe we have different views of what "small" mileage is but I think we are on the same page.

unkel

September1 wrote: »

If you look at 2012 Golfs vs LEAFs which I think costed initially similar price and with mileage up to 60k then LEAFs have clearly depraciated more:

Those prices are all over the shop. I mean what dreamer is thinking someone is gonna pay €19k for his 5 year old Golf diesel? :rolleyes:

But yeah, you are right. If you take median prices roughly from your list, a '12 Leaf is €10k and a '12 Golf diesel is €13k. So depreciation has been €600 per year more on the Leaf

Now, balance that off against the savings in fuel, maintenance, tax and insurance and it is easy to see that the Leaf owner has saved himself thousands

And the poor next owner of the Golf is likely to have some massive bills too in the next few years: DPF, DMF, injectors, EGR, timing belt, etc.

unkel

zilog_jones wrote: »

Buying a new car is financial madness either way If you're looking at this solely as a money-saving exercise, then just keep your old car for as long as possible.

That's generally true. But not in my case. It's costing me more in total cost of ownership to keep driving my (zero depreciation!) '03 Jaguar S-type, even if I have zero maintenance cost on the Jag and it keeps going on forever with just an annual NCT and a drop of oil (which I do myself)

The tax alone is €1,700 vs €120 for the EV. The petrol is about €50 per week, so €2,500 per year, vs €100 for the EV. That alone more than compensates for the depreciation I will have on the new EV

And any additional km driven is for free and the car has a full warranty I can rely on. And it will still be worth something after the 6 or 7 years (or more) that I'll keep it.

n97 mini

unkel wrote: »

That's generally true. But not in my case. It's costing me more in total cost of ownership to keep driving my (zero depreciation!) '03 Jaguar S-type, even if I have zero maintenance cost on the Jag and it keeps going on forever with just an annual NCT and a drop of oil (which I do myself)

The tax alone is €1,700 vs €120 for the EV. The petrol is about €50 per week, so €2,500 per year, vs €100 for the EV. That alone more than compensates for the depreciation I will have on the new EV

And any additional km driven is for free and the car has a full warranty I can rely on. And it will still be worth something after the 6 or 7 years (or more) that I'll keep it.

Your running costs are 1700+2500=4200 and we'll throw in 300 for servicing etc for a total of 4500. In the real world (i.e. not the dealership's forecourt!) an EV could depreciate by 8000 to 10000 in the first year, so you would save a significant amount by waiting a year and then buying a one-year-old Ioniq.

As an aside, almost 40% of your running costs are tax, which is really an ownership tax!

Villain

Advertised Irish resale prices of EVs are generally optimistic if not deluded tbh

KCross

Villain wrote: »

Advertised Irish resale prices of EVs are generally optimistic if not deluded tbh

I think everyone overvalues their car on car sale websites. I dont think its an EV thing.

Out of interest, what would you say are the "correct" figures for the '12 Leaf and the '12 Golf? We'll probably disagree but I'd like to hear it anyway!

n97 mini

KCross wrote: »

I think everyone overvalues their car on car sale websites. I dont think its an EV thing.

Out of interest, what would you say are the "correct" figures for the '12 Leaf and the '12 Golf? We'll probably disagree but I'd like to hear it anyway!

For pig iron I decided to see what the revenue thought via their VRT calc. Though that site has so much duplication and overlap it's shocking, e.g. the Leaf is available with an Automatic or Electronic transmission and both have different values!

2012 Leaf base model, 36k miles = €9330
2012 Golf 1.2 TSI, 36k miles = €10900

NIMAN

I have been watching the fall out the authorities have been having with diesel in recent times, and to be honest I wasn't too worried about buying another one.

It's big foreign cities who don't like them any more, and who plan to limit their use or ban them altogether. I can't see it having much effect on Ireland for a long time, and even longer for rural areas where I live.

Plus Ireland takes the lead on these issues from Europe, and as I heard in a radio article this morning, the EU is still measuring their cars on carbon dioxide, where diesels do well.

I think my 16 Golf will still be sellable in 2 or 3 years time. Who knows then I might feel the time is right to go EV or hybrid.

zulutango

Some big European cities are aiming to ban diesels by 2025. I think you'll see the same here. But in any case, I expect diesel cars will be a thing of the past by then (except for very large vehicles, like trucks).

NIMAN

I'd agree,but I think the death of diesel cars is a long way away

Villain

KCross wrote: »

I think everyone overvalues their car on car sale websites. I dont think its an EV thing.

Out of interest, what would you say are the "correct" figures for the '12 Leaf and the '12 Golf? We'll probably disagree but I'd like to hear it anyway!

A 12 Leaf is a bad example tbh because that model is old gen which has particular poor resale value so it would probably be in my favour to get stats but not fair.

I would say that a golf and Leaf of similar spec from 2014 I would expect the Leaf to be worth about 10k and the golf about 15k

unkel

n97 mini wrote: »

an EV could depreciate by 8000 to 10000 in the first year, so you would save a significant amount by waiting a year and then buying a one-year-old Ioniq.

You are assuming a lot there (probably without even realising it)

If any one of the €5k subsidy, €5k VRT discount, €4k scrappage is no longer there, you haven't a hope in hell to pick up a one year old Ioniq next January for €15k-€17k

I'm not taking any chances. I don't mind suffering €21k depreciation over 7 years (of enjoying near zero monthly costs)

Villain

unkel wrote: »

You are assuming a lot there (probably without even realising it)

If any one of the €5k subsidy, €5k VRT discount, €4k scrappage is no longer there, you haven't a hope in hell to pick up a one year old Ioniq next January for €15k-€17k

I'm not taking any chances. I don't mind suffering €21k depreciation over 7 years (of enjoying near zero monthly costs)

Just an FYI but Minister Noonan extended the VRT relief for five more years in last Octobers Budget, only 2 years for hybrids mind

September1

unkel wrote: »

Those prices are all over the shop. I mean what dreamer is thinking someone is gonna pay €19k for his 5 year old Golf diesel? :rolleyes:

But yeah, you are right. If you take median prices roughly from your list, a '12 Leaf is €10k and a '12 Golf diesel is €13k. So depreciation has been €600 per year more on the Leaf

Now, balance that off against the savings in fuel, maintenance, tax and insurance and it is easy to see that the Leaf owner has saved himself thousands

And the poor next owner of the Golf is likely to have some massive bills too in the next few years: DPF, DMF, injectors, EGR, timing belt, etc.

I do not think that fuel savings are that big, LEAF can easily use 200W/km if you calculate price you pay, which at night tariff is about 2c. Diesel at 6.15l/100km and 1.3 diesel price is 8c. We are looking at best case savings of 6c per km, and it would require just 10kkm every year to start saving versus depreciation. Another 10kkm adds you just 600 euro savings per year and in reality of LEAF usage this savings are much less due to change of habits.

Price difference in insurance is perhaps 100e per annum and 80e in tax, which again is not that much.

I'm not also sure if 13k is median price for similar Golf, in 2012 LEAFs were around 25-26k as far as I remember and Golf would be 20-30k so we would have to compare with one closer to middle. This depreciation difference could be larger than just 3k.

listermint

zulutango wrote: »

Some big European cities are aiming to ban diesels by 2025. I think you'll see the same here. But in any case, I expect diesel cars will be a thing of the past by then (except for very large vehicles, like trucks).

NIMAN wrote: »

I'd agree,but I think the death of diesel cars is a long way away

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37287129

From 2019, tougher European rules on diesel engines will involve measuring emissions in real-world driving conditions, making the new standards much harder to comply with.

When you have the likes of Renault which supplies its 1.5DCI engine in a vaast array of vehicle marques and models heralding that the clio and megane range will most likely be diesel free by 2020 then.... you have to consider that when buying your next car you might have some serious devaluation.

Its a conversation worth having i suppose when purchase time comes around.

unkel

September1 wrote: »

I do not think that fuel savings are that big, LEAF can easily use 200W/km if you calculate price you pay, which at night tariff is about 2c. Diesel at 6.15l/100km and 1.3 diesel price is 8c. We are looking at best case savings of 6c per km, and it would require just 10kkm every year to start saving versus depreciation. Another 10kkm adds you just 600 euro savings per year and in reality of LEAF usage this savings are much less due to change of habits.

Price difference in insurance is perhaps 100e per annum and 80e in tax, which again is not that much.

Indeed, but the average Irish car does 18k km iirc. And you don't mention maintenance, which is easily another €200 a year saving (provided nothing has gone wrong outside of warranty - a tall order!!!), so about €900 a year, which is €4.5k over 5 years. So even if the Leaf has an extra depreciation of double what I mentioned before, the Leaf owner has still saved a few thousand over five years

And your electricity figures are very royal. I mean 10c per kWh, while everyone pays 8c for night rate. And consumption of 200wh/km while in an Ioniq it's more like 100wh/km!

There's no way around it. The EV owner saves thousands over ICE if he keeps the car for 5 years or more. Even with conservative figures and worst case scenario

Villain

You can put it in bold it doesn't make it any more true unkel.

There are savings to be had for sure but thousands is a little open and could well be overstating it in some cases.

The main point on EVs is that each and every persons scenario will be different.

Also this isn't just about costs, there are other variables to take into account, mainly range restrictions based on current models available, hopefully this will all improve as newer models are released.

I test drove a Model S last year and it was mighty impressive, the last time I was that impressed in a car was when I used to sit in a WRC during testing on Irish roads

unkel

It really is a fairly simple sum. Even if you do a tiny mileage (half the national average) you do save money owning an EV. Even when all the sums we use are very prudent / biased in favour of ICE and we don't take any free charging / parking into account, etc.

Now I'm the first to admit EV isn't what a lot of people want / need. A lot of people do not aim to own a cheapo car like a Leaf / Ioniq
And charging and range anxiety are real problems. And fewer and fewer people have their own driveway and free public charging is coming to an end.

But purely from a total cost of ownership POV, EV is cheaper (provided you keep your new EV car for well over 3 years, the longer you have it and the more you drive, the more you save). There really is no other way around it.

KCross

September1 wrote: »

... Another 10kkm adds you just 600 euro savings per year and in reality of LEAF usage this savings are much less due to change of habits.

What does that mean? What habits cause the savings to reduce?

n97 mini

unkel wrote: »

You are assuming a lot there (probably without even realising it)

If any one of the €5k subsidy, €5k VRT discount, €4k scrappage is no longer there, you haven't a hope in hell to pick up a one year old Ioniq next January for €15k-€17k

I'm not taking any chances. I don't mind suffering €21k depreciation over 7 years (of enjoying near zero monthly costs)

We'll see what a 1 year old Ioniq can be had for in a year's time. Never in the history of the world has buying new been economically the most sensible, and despite how astute you might think you are I doubt you've beaten the odds.

unkel

I don't disagree with you. Of course it is cheaper TCO to buy a 1 year old car. Or better again, a 2 year old car. Wait, does this go on?

I'm actually quite good at buying very cheap cars and driving them on a tiny budget. Over most of 2016 the total cost of ownership of my second car was zero. Including tax, insurance, maintenance, depreciation. On several occasions I bought a car (with tax and long NCT) cheaply, and sold it (when the tax was up) for a profit. All of them on my classic insurance.

But we were comparing buying a brand new cheap EV with buying a brand new ICE. We all agree that the depreciation on the EV is higher in the first few years, so if you compare buying a cheap 1 year old EV with buying a 1 year old ICE, the savings with the EV are even bigger (than buying new)

September1

unkel wrote: »

Indeed, but the average Irish car does 18k km iirc. And you don't mention maintenance, which is easily another €200 a year saving (provided nothing has gone wrong outside of warranty - a tall order!!!), so about €900 a year, which is €4.5k over 5 years. So even if the Leaf has an extra depreciation of double what I mentioned before, the Leaf owner has still saved a few thousand over five years

And your electricity figures are very royal. I mean 10c per kWh, while everyone pays 8c for night rate. And consumption of 200wh/km while in an Ioniq it's more like 100wh/km!

There's no way around it. The EV owner saves thousands over ICE if he keeps the car for 5 years or more. Even with conservative figures and worst case scenario

You see in your theory that is true and perhaps one day this theory would be validated. For most people cost of new EV is not a matter of making bets and it is a serious amount of money.

I base my electricity figures in real life example of existing car and I include charging losses which are 20-30% in case of LEAFs. You are right about rate, 8c is more typical night rate and 1.6c is cost per km. I find it interesting that you do not complain that I used higher price for diesel and consumption typical for bigger car. Let's be realistice there as well. According to honest john real MPG for Golf VI 1.6 TDI is 54 mpg or 5.23l/100km so at 1.25 per liter is comes to 6.54c per km so only 4.94c per km savings.

You do seem to overestimate costs of servicing, check this price list from Hyundai:
http://www.hyundai.ie/complete-care-main

It seems that all cars are 600E per 5 years while electric one is 420E which makes it only 180E or 36E per year difference - no to mention fact that you need more expensive tyres for EV.

So with this 18km you are looking to save 400 on tax, 500 on insurance. On fuel at this 18000 km you save 890E per year so 4450 in total. That brings savings to 5350. You lose probably 4k in depreciation and you arrive at 1350 in total.

That is reason why pickup is slow, to achieve 270 per annum of savings you need to deal with restricted range of car, problematic infrastructure and what is worst you must keep car for 5 years and if you trade it in for new car, you would be restricted in which dealers to choose, as many of them turn down EVs.

Perhaps in 5 years from today we will find Ioniq a game changer, but this are real world actual figures and they are a bit optimistic as they do not account for various lifestyle changes that EV causes to even further reduce savings.

KCross

September1 wrote: »

I base my electricity figures in real life example of existing car and I include charging losses which are 20-30% in case of LEAFs.

Where did that figure come from?
I monitor mine and calculated it at 10% and I believe that is also the generally accepted figure.

September1 wrote: »

Perhaps in 5 years from today we will find Ioniq a game changer, but this are real world actual figures and they are a bit optimistic as they do not account for various lifestyle changes that EV causes to even further reduce savings.

Thats the second time you've mentioned that. Can you explain what that means?

Other than plugging the car in every night my lifestyle hasnt changed. Please elaborate, I'm intrigued if nothing else!

September1

KCross wrote: »

Where did that figure come from?
I monitor mine and calculated it at 10% and I believe that is also the generally accepted figure.

I took it from here:
https://plugndrive.wordpress.com/2015/02/06/living-with-the-leaf-charging-efficiency/

Other than plugging the car in every night my lifestyle hasnt changed. Please elaborate, I'm intrigued if nothing else!

In my case that was least of changes. LEAF provided me with motoring at negligible marginal cost, so I what I did is instead of enjoying fuel savings I started to make more trips, which could include visiting nice cafes and never ending spiral of increasing costs. Fact that driving EV is pleasurable makes it even worse. Then on top of that I used quite a bit of electricity for preheating cabin, while in case of ICE heat as waste product is nearly free.

stesaurus

KCross wrote: »

Where did that figure come from?
I monitor mine and calculated it at 10% and I believe that is also the generally accepted figure.



Thats the second time you've mentioned that. Can you explain what that means?

Other than plugging the car in every night my lifestyle hasnt changed. Please elaborate, I'm intrigued if nothing else!

I think he means all the extra driving and trips you take because sure why not it costs feck all

n97 mini

September1 wrote: »

I took it from here:
https://plugndrive.wordpress.com/2015/02/06/living-with-the-leaf-charging-efficiency/

Two problems with your source. Firstly it's a blog, and secondly the author is using 120v (Level 1) which is not an option here.

Charging the Leaf increases in efficiency with every increase in rate. For a scientific, verifiable source, see here.

https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/fsev/SteadyStateLoadCharacterization2015Leaf.pdf

In summary charging at Level 2 (208v) means 81.5% to 90.5% efficiency. At 230v that's likely to be slightly higher again.

KCross

September1 wrote: »

... and in reality of LEAF usage this savings are much less due to change of habits.

September1 wrote: »

...as they do not account for various lifestyle changes that EV causes to even further reduce savings.

September1 wrote: »

In my case that was least of changes. LEAF provided me with motoring at negligible marginal cost, so I what I did is instead of enjoying fuel savings I started to make more trips, which could include visiting nice cafes and never ending spiral of increasing costs. Fact that driving EV is pleasurable makes it even worse. Then on top of that I used quite a bit of electricity for preheating cabin, while in case of ICE heat as waste product is nearly free.

Hyperbole comes to mind! You cant blame EV for your rising cake fetish!

I have doubts about your assertion on the ICE heating being free. There will be a resistive heater, I assume in an ICE. I wont argue it as I cant back it up but I doubt its free. Either way, you dont have to use the preheating if you dont want to, so thats not EV's fault and should not be part of the calculation. Its a bit like the people who leave their ICE car running for 10mins in the morning to heat up... did you factor that in to your ICE calc? You didnt, because its optional whether you do that or not.

On a serious note though, I think we should also factor in the driveability here which you have alluded to. There is "value" in that too.
EV is way nicer to drive than any ICE. Audi's multitronic gearbox was the only one that came close for me but it still doesnt beat the EV drive.

We all have different view points on the finances because finance is a personal thing. Some value gadgets, others dont. Others see a car as a utility. Others see it more than that.


Anyway, I'm glad I understand your comment now as I thought I was missing something mind blowing there... cakes I can do without!

September1 wrote: »

I took it from here:
https://plugndrive.wordpress.com/2015/02/06/living-with-the-leaf-charging-efficiency/

It doesnt jive with what I've experienced and I have a kWh meter on my EVSE also. As others have said, the US voltages must be playing a part there.

I've also cross checked, via LeafSpy, the energy from a rapid to the car. The rapid shows you the kWh "dispensed" and LeafSpy shows you what the car has taken on and I've found it to be a reasonably consistent 90+% efficient.

n97 mini

KCross wrote: »

I have doubts about your assertion on the ICE heating being free. There will be a resistive heater, I assume in an ICE.

There is no heater. An ICE runs engine coolant through a heat exchanger which supplies heat to the cabin, so warm engine means warm cabin (or more global warming on a hot day!).

It's not always free however. On cold days people tend to put on the cabin heater as soon as they start the car. This elongates the engine warm up period, and as well all know an ICE is at its most inefficient when it's cold. As an aside my car manual says to put the air on recirc when the engine is cold, to avoid drawing cold outside air continuously over the heat exchanger. But I doubt most people read their car manuals to that level!

zilog_jones

I believe some modern diesels have a supplemental resistance heater because it takes so damn long for the engine to warm up, but I don't know specifics. I see a big increase in fuel consumption with my Prius Plug-in when the heat is on because it increases ICE running/idling significantly (no electric heater outside of the seats).

unkel wrote: »

And your electricity figures are very royal. I mean 10c per kWh, while everyone pays 8c for night rate.

Not sure about you but I pay 13.5% VAT on electricity, so it's more like 9c/kWh. I don't have gas so can't benefit from any of the dual fuel deals, though I must admit I haven't checked for cheaper rates in a while...

KCross

zilog_jones wrote: »

Not sure about you but I pay 13.5% VAT on electricity, so it's more like 9c/kWh. I don't have gas so can't benefit from any of the dual fuel deals, though I must admit I haven't checked for cheaper rates in a while...

Inc Vat I pay 7.51c/kWh at night and I dont have dual fuel either. Just normal discounted rate which everyone can request.