Severe Frost countrywide + Occasional Snow Showers in the East from Thursday 9th Feb

RobertKK

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

That's impassable? Nice pics but the amount of snow there does not tie in with the comment at all.

It could be if there is ice underneath.

Gonzo

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

That's impassable? Nice pics but the amount of snow there does not tie in with the comment at all.

looks very slushy more than icey.

Gonzo

Yourself isit wrote: »

That's not true. Even two days ago the prediction was bright, frost and wintery showers ( but infrequent) and that was the non ramping forecast.

Instead there was no frost but lots of rain. Cloudy.

the only thing that was different was the frost or lack of it. Nowhere was forecasting accumulations of snow. Showers were as forecasted, very light, most places stayed dry till today. I thought at best some places might see an overnight dusting but sadly nothing came of this event, the night time temps and this afternoon's temps were definitely higher than forecast alright. As i said earlier this was not an easterly in my book and never was to begin with.

Yourself isit

Gonzo wrote: »

the only thing that was different was the frost or lack of it. Nowhere was forecasting accumulations of snow. Showers were as forecasted, very light, most places stayed dry till today. I thought at best some places might see an overnight dusting but sadly nothing came of this event, the night time temps and this afternoon's temps were definitely higher than forecast alright. As i said earlier this was not an easterly in my book and never was to begin with.

Showers were far far more frequent than forecast. Frost was non existant. All temps were higher than forecast. That's pretty much 3 for 3.

Im not trying to trip people up here. I'm asking metrologically aware people what went wrong.

Larbre34

How annoying is the radar, we should be getting a pasting. Any chance of the night time temps doing us a favour at this stage?

pad199207

Hirlam is interested in some further snow potential through Leinster tomorrow

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

Hirlam is interested in some further snow potential through Leinster tomorrow

not a chance in low lying areas, maybe the wicklow mountains. Tomorrow will be 5-7C in low lying areas but could feel colder than today with a very raw wind.

Villain

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

That's impassable? Nice pics but the amount of snow there does not tie in with the comment at all.

Well a few tried and failed while I was there, a small van did make it but they needed a few lads to push at the top of the hill beyond my photo. I'm sure some experienced drivers who drive snowy conditions would make but to the general snow seeker it wasn't passable and we really don't need rescue services going up to retrieve those idiots!

But hey this is boards so everyone here is an expert in everything

Yourself isit

Villain wrote: »

Well a few tried and failed while I was there, a small van did make it but they needed a few lads to push at the top of the hill beyond my photo. I'm sure some experienced drivers who drive snowy conditions would make but to the general snow seeker it wasn't passable and we really don't need rescue services going up to retrieve those idiots!

But hey this is boards so everyone here is an expert in everything

It's a few inches of slush.

SEPT 23 1989

Absolute shambles freezing cold and pissing rain

Villain

Yourself isit wrote: »

It's a few inches of slush.

Yep on a steep incline, lads were spinning all over the place just trying to turn around below the hill to be fair most haven't driven in these conditions for years, a fair few were rental cars with tourists too.

The fella in bus who passed the impassable sign was just asking for trouble.

ninebeanrows

For those less despondent! The current mild sector declines somewhat after approx 3am. I'm expecting low lying snow In inland And higher levels Ulater tomorrow also snow line will reduce to approx 150/200m in Wicklow by 6am

nacho libre

Still snowing lightly, with bigger flakes - so perhaps it will turn sleety soon.

Unfortunately, with warm sectors they tend to be warmer than anticipated. I did say yesterday that the increase in precipitation would coincide with things going the wrong side of marginal. In fairness many others did too.

Doctor Shivering

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Just had to come on to say that despite the spin that will be pushed by some on here, the entire forecast was way off. The opening of dedicated a thread for this non event was premature. I am in Dublin today at a wedding and it is wet and cold. A typical February day.

Congratulations

Doctor Shivering

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Reading the reports on here, I am reminded of this rather brilliant post from a couple of days ago. :P

TBH, if I was living on the east coast, I'd not be looking forward to the upcoming short cool snap: just looks cool, damp and non-descript. Much like we get in the west under weak polar westerlys, which is hardly anything to celebrate.

Yeah but you also said it would be dry
10/10 for the first bit and a big fat zero for the other

Meh disappointed but I've seen days like this turn out like this in the 80's too

Villain

If you are looking future predictions to be accurate then the forum for Weather forecasting probably isn't the best place to look, try the gambling thread

lucernarian

Villain wrote: »

Well a few tried and failed while I was there, a small van did make it but they needed a few lads to push at the top of the hill beyond my photo. I'm sure some experienced drivers who drive snowy conditions would make but to the general snow seeker it wasn't passable and we really don't need rescue services going up to retrieve those idiots!

But hey this is boards so everyone here is an expert in everything

Indeed, two people posted here to contradict you as though they were there as well. In any case all it takes for a road to become impassible is for a few cars to be stuck and block the road for everyone.

Oneiric 3

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

Yeah but you also said it would be dry
10/10 for the first bit and a big fat zero for the other

Meh disappointed but I've seen days like this turn out like this in the 80's too

Where exactly did I say it would be 'dry' for the east coast? Notwithstanding, it has been very dry for the majority of the country these last couple of days, so even if I did say it (which I did not) it would have been another 10/10 for me. :rolleyes:

nacho libre

Heavy wet snow just started now, not a chance of it sticking though. Nice just to see it falling all the same.

Oneiric 3

lucernarian wrote: »

Indeed, two people posted here to contradict you as though they were there as well. In any case all it takes for a road to become impassible is for a few cars to be stuck and block the road for everyone.

If I had taken the earlier advice of going to the Wicklow hills (OK, I'm not a Dub but still..) for a snow fix, I think, judging those pics by Villain, I would have ended up being very bitterly disappointed.

RobertKK

Temperature falling here from 2.7C to now 2.1C, but dew point is still too high at 1.5C.

So far it seems the precipitation dies as it hits the north eastern side of the Castlecomer Plateau.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Where exactly did I say it would be 'dry' for the east coast? Notwithstanding, it has been very dry for the majority of the country these last couple of days, so even if I did say it (which I did not) it would have been another 10/10 for me. :rolleyes:

paddy1, i will try to direct this snow over to you. . But seriously, do you know anything about the QBO?
i've read that due to the fact it was in a westerly state this year, it made height rises to our north west less likely? it has been extremely frustrating that this year has not delivered at least one potent cold spell, when you consider the current position of the jetstream, and how quite the Atlantic has been this winter overall.

pad199207

Rain turning a bit more sleety now here in Kildare

Gaoth Laidir

It was never really going to be a proper easterly as in the 1991 sense of the term. It was a brief cut-off sector, dissected by a warmer air advection from Poland/Germany, that quickly modified in its extended path over the North Sea. It didn't come the short route. The broad layer of stratocumulus that prevented any real frost over the past 48 hours further stacked the odds against snow as had there been the hard frosts then the cold surface layer would have most likely given more snow.

There will be colder air getting into the north later tonight so it may bring down the snowline, but with the overcast skies and saturated boundary layer, cold rain will probably remain on the cards

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

paddy1, i will try to direct this snow over to you. . But seriously, do you know anything about the QBO?
i've read that due to the fact it was in a westerly state this year, it made height rises to our north west less likely? it has been extremely frustrating that this year has not delivered at least one potent cold spell, when you consider the current position of the jetstream, and how quite the Atlantic has been this winter overall.

To be honest Mr. Mayo, I know very little about the QBO itself, but I will say that I did a quick correlation test a while back for winter temps for the CET region (must do one for here too) and SLP patterns over the N. Atlantic and both suggest that there is little influence on both by the QBO state.

I'll try to rustle up a few charts later tonight or tomorrow.

lucernarian

The presence of cloud cover or otherwise would never have changed the outcome for snow to stick or not. Even in February, frost would clear as the morning goes on in clear skies, unless the air itself is cold enough for snow to stick. If anything, cloud cover prevents pesky sunlight from hearing the ground and therefore the surface air, albeit at the expense of convection - an issue that I think did make a difference on Friday night.

Snow will happily stick on wet ground when the air temperature heads towards zero too.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Raining heavy in Drogheda. Mournes / Wicklow Mts should do well overnight despite the naysayers.

Yourself isit

Villain wrote: »

If you are looking future predictions to be accurate then the forum for Weather forecasting probably isn't the best place to look, try the gambling thread

Is this a science or not? If it is then explain what went wrong?

Or stop creating dedicated threads for non events.

Yourself isit

lucernarian wrote: »

Indeed, two people posted here to contradict you as though they were there as well. In any case all it takes for a road to become impassible is for a few cars to be stuck and block the road for everyone.

The term impassable doesn't mean a car skidded. That could happen in June.

For the road to be impassable it should be impassable for all vehicles.

lucernarian

Jordan Quiet Comma wrote: »

Raining heavy in Drogheda. Mournes / Wicklow Mts should do well overnight despite the naysayers.

Now that's one prediction I didn't see in this thread. Who said the Wicklow and Mourne mountains wouldn't see snow this weekend?!

I hear Monasterboice and Collon is seeing nothing but cold rain today and this evening so far.