Severe Frost countrywide + Occasional Snow Showers in the East from Thursday 9th Feb

q85dw7osi4lebg

Yourself isit wrote: »

The term impassable doesn't mean a car skidded. That could happen in June.

For the road to be impassable it should be impassable for all vehicles.

Nothing is impassable for all vehicles.. There's a vehicle out there for every condition.

Yourself isit

lucernarian wrote: »

Now that's one prediction I didn't see in this thread. Who said the Wicklow and Mourne mountains wouldn't see snow this weekend?!

Nobody.

I dint mind ramping but the failure to admit "we were wrong" is galling.

q85dw7osi4lebg

lucernarian wrote: »

Now that's one prediction I didn't see in this thread. Who said the Wicklow and Mourne mountains wouldn't see snow this weekend?!

I hear Monasterboice and Collon is seeing nothing but cold rain today and this evening so far.

Many posts since the beginning of the thread from certain users have stated there won't be any white stuff. Apparently hilly areas don't count when it snows. Garden or nothing..

Yourself isit

Jordan Quiet Comma wrote: »

Nothing is impassable for all vehicles.. There's a vehicle out there for every condition.

This is meaningless pedantry. Did the "event" cause snow at low lying areas or not.

No. Explain why not.

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

The presence of cloud cover or otherwise would never have changed the outcome for snow to stick or not. Even in February, frost would clear as the morning goes on in clear skies, unless the air itself is cold enough for snow to stick. If anything, cloud cover prevents pesky sunlight from hearing the ground and therefore the surface air, albeit at the expense of convection - an issue that I think did make a difference on Friday night.

Snow will happily stick on wet ground when the air temperature heads towards zero too.

I'm not talking about snow to stick, I'm taking about it to fall in the first place. The cloud cover prevented frost, which would have precooled the lowest layers and helped prevent the snow melting before hitting low levels. There is still not enough heat in the sun to totally overcome this cooling. The relatively low daytime temperatures in the west of Ireland today attest to that. Gurteen, for example, got down to around -3 this morning and only managed a max of 4.7 C this afternoon in wall-to-wall sunshine.

Snow settling on wet ground depends on the rate that it's snowing and the temperature of the ground, not so much the air. Even if the air is above zero, the ground may be several degrees colder. But even if the ground is above zero, if it's snowing hard enough beyond a critical rate then its bulk effect is enough to allow the snow to stick and accumulate.

q85dw7osi4lebg

[quote="I suppose if you like snow in winter move to Greece or Italy. Is the lesson from this winter.[/quote]

Or you could just go to the Mournes / Wicklow Mts.

lucernarian

Yourself isit wrote: »

The term impassable doesn't mean a car skidded. That could happen in June.

For the road to be impassable it should be impassable for all vehicles.

Haha thank you Your Majesty, I'll revert to your definitions on English words in the future.

By future, I mean until I have the desktop version of Boards that I assume has the "ignore" feature.

Yourself isit

lucernarian wrote: »

Haha thank you Your Majesty, I'll revert to your definitions on English words in the future.

By future, I mean until I have the desktop version of Boards that I assume has the "ignore" feature.

You guys are going to bring the weather forum into even further disrepute.

Ignore what you want. But I'd prefer that there was a scientific explanation of what went wrong. That's all.

pad199207

Fairly rough out there now

Windy with moderate sleet

Yourself isit

Jordan Quiet Comma wrote: »

Or you could just go to the Mournes / Wicklow Mts.

The title of the thread wasnt "wet day for most - maybe slushy snow at the top of irelands tallest mountains".

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'm not talking about snow to stick, I'm taking about it to fall in the first place. The cloud cover prevented frost, which would have precooled the lowest layers and helped prevent the snow melting before hitting low levels. There is still not enough heat in the sun to totally overcome this cooling. The relatively low daytime temperatures in the west of Ireland today attest to that.

How?? If that were the case, there would be freezing rain as that is what would happen with the effect you've described. A layer where temperature causes snow to melt (or else the upper atmosphere is warm enough such that it was always rain) but the presence of sub-zero surfaces causes the rain on impact. The dramatic temperature rise seen in the country on 26th December 2010, with freezing rain but no snow would show this too.

The conclusion you're making is that cloud cover prevented snow from falling? Which flies in the face of a lot of what I've learned on this forum and elsewhere. Happy to be proven wrong but could you show some other sources or info about this?

q85dw7osi4lebg

Yourself isit wrote: »

The title of the thread wasnt "wet day for most - maybe slushy snow at the top of irelands tallest mountains".

Neither was it "widespread snow at low levels"

This is Ireland, it's nearly always a now-cast situation. The weekend isn't over, precipitation is falling, temperatures are marginal, I'll wait it out until tomorrow before I disagree entirely with the thread title. Nothing to lose by having a glass half full attitude.

lucernarian

Yourself isit wrote: »

You guys are going to bring the weather forum into even further disrepute.

Ignore what you want. But I'd prefer that there was a scientific explanation of what went wrong. That's all.

Honestly couldn't care about your motives. I don't know who you're addressing this explanation stuff to as I had little to say or predict in the run up to this. Met Éireann are the body you're looking for I think.

What does grind my gears are knowitalls telling other people who were physically present at a place as to what actually happened there.

Villain

Yourself isit wrote: »

Is this a science or not? If it is then explain what went wrong?

Or stop creating dedicated threads for non events.

Forecasting is not an exact science, surely you get that?

Yourself isit

Jordan Quiet Comma wrote: »

Neither was it "widespread snow at low levels"

This is Ireland, it's nearly always a now-cast situation. The weekend isn't over, precipitation is falling, temperatures are marginal, I'll wait it out until tomorrow before I disagree entirely with the thread title. Nothing to lose by having a glass half full attitude.

No explanation there either. This forum risks becoming a daily express type headline grabber ( artic conditions on the way) unless it explains why what was predicted didn't happen.

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

How?? If that were the case, there would be freezing rain as that is what would happen with the effect you've described. A layer where temperature causes snow to melt (or else the upper atmosphere is warm enough such that it was always rain) but the presence of sub-zero surfaces causes the rain on impact. The dramatic temperature rise seen in the country on 26th December 2010, with freezing rain but no snow would show this too.

The conclusion you're making is that cloud cover prevented snow from falling? Which flies in the face of a lot of what I've learned on this forum and elsewhere. Happy to be proven wrong but could you show some other sources or info about this?

I posted a GFS forecast sounding earlier this morning that showed the lowest layers well above zero from around 600 metres down to the ground. A warm layer like that is too thick for snow to survive down to the ground. It will survive down to about 200-300 m amsl, which is why we have snow in Sally Gap but not near sea level.

Now if the bottom hundred or two metres had been near zero, as would have happened if there was frost overnight, then it would have been drier (lower dewpoints due to moisture-deposition from the air in the form of frost) and the melting process would have been stalled until a much lower level than 200-300 metres snowline. The snow would therefore not melt to rain, therefore no freezing rain, just snow.

In late December 2010 the situation was a classic freezing rain profile, with a deep cold layer at the surface but a substantial warm (above freezing) layer above it. At no point was there an elevated warm layer today. All precipitation was snow down to a couple of hundred metres.

dm09

Its becoming a bit of a whingefest in here.. "The thread misled me Waaaa" , some of us are following and enjoying this thread, its a bit annoying seeing constant bitchy posts. There was never a forecast of widespread snow... The dynamics of Irish weather are extremely complex, its incredibly difficult to forecast accurately.
The thread mentioned snow showers - its snowing in North county louth although not sticking on low levels it is above 200m. RTE have forecast snow tonight and tomorrow so in my view this 'forecast' has been pretty bang on.

Also - For those who take the time and effort to create the threads, post charts, give opinions analysis - Thank you, with out your input there would be no weather forum.

sincerely,
a long term lurker, very occasional contributer

q85dw7osi4lebg

Rain / Sleet mix inland Louth.

Yourself isit

Villain wrote: »

Forecasting is not an exact science, surely you get that?

Yes I get that.


Well then explain what and why does thread was wrong. What happened. Why? That was my first request. Instead of an answer I got defensive nonsense about it snowing above 400M and minis going off the road on the sally gap.

John.Icy

Yourself isit wrote: »

Yes I get that.


Well then explain what and why does thread was wrong. What happened. Why? That was my first request. Instead of an answer I got defensive nonsense about it snowing above 400M and minis going off the road on the sally gap.

I have seen several posts about the mild sector moving overhead scuppering any potential that was originally there for today/the weekend.

Either go and read them, or jog on. It's getting tiring now.

Yourself isit

lucernarian wrote: »

Honestly couldn't care about your motives. I don't know who you're addressing this explanation stuff to as I had little to say or predict in the run up to this. Met Éireann are the body you're looking for I think.

Met eirann didn't start this thread.

What does grind my gears are knowitalls telling other people who were physically present at a place as to what actually happened there.

What grinds my gears is claiming that slushy snow on the highest of mountains is proof of a widespread snow or frost event.

Yourself isit

John.Icy wrote: »

I have seen several posts about the mild sector moving overhead scuppering any potential that was originally there for today/the weekend.

Either go and read them, or jog on. It's getting tiring now.

Nobody answered me with that data (which is what I was looking for).

If this forum expects to be taken more seriously than say the daily express ( which predicts artic! Weather! Every! Day!) then it needs to explain why what it predicted went belly up.

sjb25

Yourself isit wrote: »

Yes I get that.


Well then explain what and why does thread was wrong. What happened. Why? That was my first request. Instead of an answer I got defensive nonsense about it snowing above 400M and minis going off the road on the sally gap.

I'm not a weather expert just a lurker here but nobody here predicted anything major like jaysus

Kermit.de.frog

Yourself isit wrote: »

No explanation there either. This forum risks becoming a daily express type headline grabber ( artic conditions on the way) unless it explains why what was predicted didn't happen.

Forecasts are "forecasts" hence they may or may not happen. With weather we are dealing with so many variables, especially in this part of the world, that it only takes one or two to be off and what would otherwise be snow ends up being rain.

It's very narrow margins. Knock 1 or 2 degrees off temperatures today and it's snow.

To cut a long story short it is slightly warmer than forecast and the wind is stronger off the Irish sea. This is not good for snow in coastal counties at low levels.

I will say, whilst apologising to those who take these things seriously, the thread is a restrained and responsible one in my honest opinion given the output at the time.

Although to be fair some saw flakes this morning and higher ground has seen snow.

MidMan25

I've witnessed some strange behaviour on this forum over the years, but this fella is right up there.

lucernarian

@Gaoth Laidir

Didn't want to quote a big reply. I'm hoping for some evidence of how a surface frost could materially alter the atmosphere 200 metres above, in the face of stiff winds that passed over nearby warmer seas. Or some sort of well-known and respected source or anything like that.

Like, the temperatures weren't borderline for snow to stick at low levels along the east coast.(for Saturday afternoon I hasten to add)

Maybe I'm biased towards predicting snow to stick rather than just fall. If anything the worst thing for me is to see snow stick but not fall, I'm a big snow fan

NIMAN

Is it just me or are the media outlets really hyping up chilly and frosty nights nowadays, like they are Siberian winters?

Last couple of weeks I have heard terms like 'severe cold snaps', 'bitterly cold at night', 'winds blowing in from Russia' used on the forecasts, but they then follow it up with 'temperatures as low as -2', or 'temps at night of '-1 to +2'.

Seriously? -2? Do they not remember 2010?
-2 could hardly be described as bitterly cold now, can it?

pad199207

Pelting down here now, if only if it was a degree colder

Oh hang on if the temperature was right there would be no precipitation ....

MidMan25

NIMAN wrote: »

Is it just me or are the media outlets really hyping up chilly and frosty nights nowadays, like they are Siberian winters?

Last couple of weeks I have heard terms like 'severe cold snaps', 'bitterly cold at night', 'winds blowing in from Russia' used on the forecasts, but they then follow it up with 'temperatures as low as -2', or 'temps at night of '-1 to +2'.

Seriously? -2? Do they not remember 2010?
-2 could hardly be described as bitterly cold now, can it?

Click bait - Weather stories do well so they'll keep publishing them.

Yourself isit

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Forecasts are "forecasts" hence they may or may not happen. With weather we are dealing with so many variables, especially in this part of the world, that it only takes one or two to be off and what would otherwise be snow ends up being rain.

It's very narrow margins. Knock 1 or 2 degrees off temperatures today and it's snow.

To cut a long story short it is slightly warmer than forecast and the wind is stronger off the Irish sea. This is not good for snow in coastal counties at low levels.

I will say, whilst apologising to those who take these things seriously, the thread is a restrained and responsible one in my honest opinion given the output at the time.

Although to be fair some saw flakes this morning and higher ground has seen snow.

The thread is fine. Until the event doesn't happen.
Then the defensive nonsense starts.

Search my posts. This all starts with me asking a simple question. "Why did we get this wrong".

Instead of an answer I got nonsense about probably trying the gambling forum and era it snowed on the sally gap. A mini skidded so it's a national emergency.
Or that I should lighten up. Or that these things can't be forecast (in which case why have a thread?).

And it is that attitude that is dragging this forum into disrepute.

Im not even that interested in snow. I am interested in the science of meteorology albeit as a novice (although my background is scientific) and it is clear that threasa are better forums to discuss this. So with that i am out.