Is the EU actually about to break up?

Zubeneschamali

johnp001 wrote: »

I expect things to be a lot different by this time next year.

Yesterday the NTMA placed 1.25 billion of bonds at 1% interest. 10 years ago, before the crash, we used to see 4%, and that was OK. During the crash, we saw 10-12%.

So, in a years time, where will it be, as these chickens come home to roost?

I'll say it'll still be less than the 4% it was 10 years ago. What is your prediction? And we can check back in 12 months to see who was wrong.

Zubeneschamali

Wanderer78 wrote: »

we have to give up on all this supply and demand, market equilibrium, debt/gdp radio etc etc. its all nonsense.

If it is all nonsense, then what's the problem with our unpayable debt? Just more nonsense numbers in a computer.

johnp001

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yesterday the NTMA placed 1.25 billion of bonds at 1% interest. 10 years ago, before the crash, we used to see 4%, and that was OK. During the crash, we saw 10-12%.

So, in a years time, where will it be, as these chickens come home to roost?

I'll say it'll still be less than the 4% it was 10 years ago. What is your prediction? And we can check back in 12 months to see who was wrong.

Fair enough, I'll take the other side of that bet and say >4%

And I certainly hope you are right and that the Celtic Tiger standard of living we have in this country is here for the long term

Yurt123

Is homelessness really that big a deal, how many people are homeless?

My argument is why should people build houses, with planning permission and other red tape it costs a lot of money to start a development before one block is laid even… and then even if your development does prove to be successful you've to pay 1/3 of your profits in CGT where as before it was only 20%… also if you build houses and rent them out (presuming your in the high tax bracket) you only get left with a fraction of the rent by the time your income tax, PRSI, USC is all paid

If the government brought in tax breaks for people selling houses or even renting them It would surely ease the homeless crisis, I don't think the homeless crisis has anything to do with the EU, we owe all this money for bailing out our banks and there's no getting away from it

solodeogloria

Good afternoon,

It was too tempting to ignore this thread.

I don't think the EU will fall apart and I don't have any doubts that Britain will leave the EU.

In the medium term it will be costly but the British economy will weather the storm. PwC this week said with the right trading arrangements Britain could be one of the fastest growing economies in the G7 post-Brexit. There's lots of reasons to think that Brexit can be beneficial long term. There is no logical reason to believe that the UK can't benefit from Brexit long term.

The EU on the other hand needs to reform. That probably would look like debt forgiveness for a stagnant Greece that the IMF no longer wants to enforce and removing it from the Eurozone, a common Schengen area EU backed border force or scrap Schengen entirely, less rather than more integration, more rather than less sovereignty over member states affairs. If that means no single currency that's also an option that needs to be considered.

People like Verhofstadt are deluded if they think that the solution to the EU's woes with populism are going to be dealt with by more integration rather than a lot lot less.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

catbear

A lot of new accounts. Interesting.

Wanderer78

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If it is all nonsense, then what's the problem with our unpayable debt? Just more nonsense numbers in a computer.

its very likely some of the debts created during the last few years will never be paid back. our financial and economic systems are backed by fundamentally flawed economic theories and principles. theres effectively too much debt out there now, particularly private debt. our economies are becoming stagnant due to this, its time for something new and fast or all this will go south, very very quickly.

BlinkingLights

Reading it through the UK media you'd think the EU was going to have an all out war any moment in between the regular famines and invasions.

I don't think the French are really going to elect Le Pen. It's a second round run off voting system. She will get into the second round but she will get about 36% max.

4068ac1elhodqr

Having backed both UKE-ConMaj, Brexit & Trump, think the EU will change dramatically over the next 5yrs likely in this sequence:

1). Greece 'asked' to leave, they accept the plan with a golden handshake/wave.
2). Debt-ridden Italy to leave shortly after. Renzi lost the recent gamble with a referendum, nationalist 5☆ to win.
3). Denmark to follow Italy, a country which holds it's own virtues very highly, will no longer tolerate increasing immigration levels.
4). France not leave until beyond 2020, LePen won't win the next election. She will come very close, but lacks the charisma and leadership for such a bold move. A stronger alternative leader will be appointed after her demise, and take them out of the EU at a much later date, at 2nd referendum perhaps around 2021, by this time the desire to leave will have become great.
5). After this time it will become much more practical for any Western/Southern state to leave the EU, whether it's Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Malta. Following earlier examples, the ability for a country to control it's own borders and legislation will be of paramount importance.

Europe will become a German led superstate 2025, mainly amassed of Eastern/Central block countries, as such the German army will rise again to defend this block from various new challenges arising from the East and Middle-East.

johnp001

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its very likely some of the debts created during the last few years will never be paid back. our financial and economic systems are backed by fundamentally flawed economic theories and principles. theres effectively too much debt out there now, particularly private debt. our economies are becoming stagnant due to this, its time for something new and fast or all this will go south, very very quickly.

Yes, and the default on private debts could be a catalyst but the post Glass-Steagal exposure of financial institutions to a massive derivative bubble is what will make the next crash orders of magnitude more severe than the previous one.

nhunter100

Yurt123 wrote:

Is homelessness really that big a deal, how many people are homeless?

For the 6500 that are officially counted as homeless (2000+ children) I'm sure it is a big deal.

BlinkingLights

Or, more likely : the UK will half-leave having realised that Brexit is just too much work and everyone else will kind of stumble on as normal while hoping Trump eventually gets impeached.

Zubeneschamali

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its very likely some of the debts created during the last few years will never be paid back.

Nobody ever thought they would ever be "paid back" in the sense of reduced to zero debt. But the people who loaned us money will get paid - we'll borrow more to pay them.

catbear

Both Five Star and LePen have said they'd switch back to former currencies but retain a link to the Euro.

Nostalgia economics essentially. Pensioners in both nations know that to break the link with the euro would mean rapid populist devaluations and an erosion of their purchasing power.

Plus southern Italy can't blame the EU for becoming increasingly reliant on north african migrants (not to be conflated with the boat people) who are hired through agencies to look after the increasingly aging demographic.

Wanderer78

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nobody ever thought they would ever be "paid back" in the sense of reduced to zero debt. But the people who loaned us money will get paid - we'll borrow more to pay them.

its time for us to look at the basis of why these debts were issued in the first place, some were effectively under duress. our debt based monetary systems are not working for the majority but are for the minority. we need to start addressing these issues

BlinkingLights

I think there's a huge issue here in populist movements assuming that exiting the Euro is a panacia for solving floundering economies.

You're in a situation where Italy is competing largely against China now. Back in its heyday it dominated areas like white goods and had a thriving car industry. I mean, go back to the 1990s and pretty much anything you had in your kitchen was made in Italy.

The Italian brands failed to go upmarket like Germany (Bosch, Siemens, Miele, Audi, Mercedes, etc etc) / find a niche and were wiped out at the cheaper end by cheaper non-EU brands e.g. BEKO from Turkey (look up the parent companies sometime .. they're quite amusing) and also by stiff competition from LG, Samsung and Chinese products that are replacing Italian brands and Italian manufacturing jobs.

Italian car brands also managed to lose market share, and that was largely due to going through a period of producing unattractive cars. Fiat and others lost their market share.

If you leave the Euro and devalue to a new Lira, what happens? It plummets and yes, everything gets a bit more competitive for exports, but your are still up against China, South Korea and far more efficient and higher end brands in Germany and elsewhere. So, you just end up in the same situation but with even bigger debts releative to income and everyone's much poorer.

A lot of the proposals of the populists are economics of a bygone era. Italy needs to address its economic problems and come up with strategies to make its pretty formidable industries more competitive through innovation and better branding. Fiat in particular has been doing that.

Similar arguments apply to Spain and definitely to France.
France has absolutely everything it could possibly need to be an economic powerhouse and probably a history of far more design flare than Germany ever had, yet it's floundering at the moment.

Sitting on your rear end blaming the Euro and external factors will not make your economy function. You need to produce goods and services people actually want to buy and recognise that there are other competitors out there that you need to outcompete.

The Euro may have taken the brakes off in some ways, but a lot of the problems were spawned by the global credit crunch.

The UK, for example, is not in the Eurozone yet has nationalised banks and a huge national debt and over there, Brexit has basically blamed the EU on absolutely everything without any real logic to it.

The EU has flaws, but it has become a whipping boy for all that's wrong in Europe too which is a handy excuse for passing the buck.

Ireland's economic problems were caused by Ireland's idiotic policies on house building and mad bubble-inflation economics. I think most of us realised that and moved on having given FF a serious kicking in the process.

Elsewhere in Europe, I'm just seeing everything being blamed on the EU and immigration which makes very little sense. Also, at EU level, the countries that are doing well have all been rather sneering at the countries that have had problems and have only very begrudgingly offered any solidarity. We've had absolute NEIN to Eurobonds and so on from Germany.

There's been poor leadership, lots of blaming 'the other' and very little serious cooperation.

Europe could solve this stuff, but instead it's just in-fighting and seeing the rise of mini-Trumps. That does not bode well not only for Europe but the West generally.

Rightwing

If Italy go, that's it. Game over. Same goes for any of the countries in the Eurozone, will be like a house of cards. Sooner the better too.

Yurt123

Rightwing wrote: »

If Italy go, that's it. Game over. Same goes for any of the countries in the Eurozone, will be like a house of cards. Sooner the better too.

Italy is hardly important enough that their leaving will cause the EU to fall apart surely… I'm no expert by any means, I just like to keep myself informed but I think if Britain does leave and if France then leaves that then it will be game over

johnp001

Yurt123 wrote: »

Italy is hardly important enough that their leaving will cause the EU to fall apart surely… I'm no expert by any means, I just like to keep myself informed but I think if Britain does leave and if France then leaves that then it will be game over

When Grexit was being discussed previously there didn't seem to be any workable mechanism to allow Greece to leave the common currency. Brexit is more feasible as they are not part of the currency union. Any of the eurozone EU members would be very hard to disentangle from the union, especially without causing another run on peripheral euro bonds.

Yurt123

johnp001 wrote: »

When Grexit was being discussed previously there didn't seem to be any workable mechanism to allow Greece to leave the common currency. Brexit is more feasible as they are not part of the currency union. Any of the eurozone EU members would be very hard to disentangle from the union, especially without causing another run on peripheral euro bonds.

The euro was only introduced to benefit the Germans that time really wasn't it? I remember reading their own currency was growing so strong it was making their exports uncompetitive so with the common currency amongst us weaker economies their problem was solved basically at our expense

nhunter100

Yurt123 wrote:

Italy is hardly important enough that their leaving will cause the EU to fall apart surely… I'm no expert by any means, I just like to keep myself informed but I think if Britain does leave and if France then leaves that then it will be game over

So you think if Italy leaves it's no big deal? Are you serious? If as you say you like to keep yourself informed you'd realise your comment about Italy is sorry to say this but utter nonsense.

catbear

Rightwing wrote: »

If Italy go, that's it. Game over. Same goes for any of the countries in the Eurozone, will be like a house of cards. Sooner the better too.

But your missing the point. Italy doesn't want to go, it wants to stay linked to the Euro so even if 5Star got in essentially nothing changes.

Ironically 5Star will face the same bicameral deadlock that's created an Italian government on average 1.5 years since 1945 and that Renzi was trying to reform.

johnp001

Yurt123 wrote: »

The euro was only introduced to benefit the Germans that time really wasn't it? I remember reading their own currency was growing so strong it was making their exports uncompetitive so with the common currency amongst us weaker economies their problem was solved basically at our expense

Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro has been saying the same thing recently.

Alexander Mercouris wrote:

Donald Trump trade chief brands Germany a ‘currency manipulator’, says TTIP is ‘dead’

Peter Navarro, the head of President Trump’s new National Trade Council, is accusing Germany of ‘currency manipulation’ and is saying that TTIP is dead.

Navarro is being quoted by the Financial Times as calling the euro an “implicit Deutsche Mark” whose low valuation is giving Germany an unfair trade advantage against its competitors – including the US. On that basis he says that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (“TTIP”) currently under negotiation between the US and the EU, is unrealisable.

According to the Financial Times this is what Navarro said

Navarro on FT wrote:

A big obstacle to viewing TTIP as a bilateral deal is Germany, which continues to exploit other countries in the EU as well as the US with an ‘implicit Deutsche Mark’ that is grossly undervalued. The German structural imbalance in trade with the rest of the EU and the US underscores the economic heterogeneity [diversity] within the EU — ergo, this is a multilateral deal in bilateral dress

These comments will fuel even more concern in Germany at the direction the Trump administration is taking.

One of the reasons for Angela Merkel’s strong political position in Germany is that the combination of Germany’s longstanding industrial strength and the euro – which trades internationally well below where a Deutsche Mark would trade – has enabled Germany to export its way out of its economic problems. The result is that Germany has not experienced a serious recession since Merkel became Chancellor, even during the crisis period of the world financial crisis in 2008.
More...

Chips Lovell

Yurt123 wrote: »

The euro was only introduced to benefit the Germans that time really wasn't it? I remember reading their own currency was growing so strong it was making their exports uncompetitive so with the common currency amongst us weaker economies their problem was solved basically at our expense

The French were keener on it than the Germans. The creation of the Euro part of the bargain Mitterrand extracted in exchange for backing German reunification.

Yurt123

nhunter100 wrote: »

So you think if Italy leaves it's no big deal? Are you serious? If as you say you like to keep yourself informed you'd realise your comment about Italy is sorry to say this but utter nonsense.

Why do you take offence to everything and keep using the phrase "utter nonsense", what's the big deal if we don't share the exact same opinion? Chill out I never said I know everything, just sharing my opinion like everyone else and happy to talk about it if you'd stop being condescending

nhunter100

Yurt123 wrote:

Chill out I never said I know everything, just sharing my opinion

I got that when you described homelessness as no big deal. Unfortunately if you post an opinion in on a public forum it maybe challenged.

srsly78

catbear wrote: »

But your missing the point. Italy doesn't want to go, it wants to stay linked to the Euro so even if 5Star got in essentially nothing changes.

Ironically 5Star will face the same bicameral deadlock that's created an Italian government on average 1.5 years since 1945 and that Renzi was trying to reform.

5star doesn't even want to leave the eu so I don't know what ye are on about. Some posters can't seem to differentiate between the eu and the euro.

suziki832

I wonder what will happen with Northern Ireland when the UK does leave? Because there are people there who consider themselves Irish and hold Irish passports... how will that work if the UK makes any changes to movement EU citizens since Irish citizens are part of the EU.

nhunter100

suziki832 wrote:

I wonder what will happen with Northern Ireland when the UK does leave? Because there are people there who consider themselves Irish and hold Irish passports... how will that work if the UK makes any changes to movement EU citizens since Irish citizens are part of the EU.

People in the north are entitled to dual citizenship under the terms of the good Friday agreement. Can't see an issue tbh.

BlinkingLights

In all likelihood the UK Ireland agreements on free movement will remain fully intact for people as the existing agreement is bilateral and nothing to do with the EU.

The issue is goods and services. Ireland and the UK never had a totally open boarder for trade until 1993 and that's basically where the relationship will be going back to. Those are EU derived rights.

So while traveling or relocating to the UK or to Ireland is likely to be very straight forward, you'll be subject to customs checks and tarrifs on things you bring through if the UK steps outside the single market and the customs union.

Yurt123

nhunter100 wrote: »

I got that when you described homelessness as no big deal. Unfortunately if you post an opinion in on a public forum it maybe challenged.

I started a thread about the future of the EU, why do you keep going on about homelessness? Stick to the point. I've no problem with anyone disagreeing with me but it's rude to tell someone repeatedly that their opinion is "utter nonsense"

nhunter100

Yurt123 wrote:

I started a thread about the future of the EU, why do you keep going on about homelessness? Stick to the point. I've no problem with anyone disagreeing with me but it's rude to tell someone repeatedly that their opinion is "utter nonsense"

You brought homelessness into the thread not I or have you forgotten?

nhunter100

Yurt123 wrote:

Is homelessness really that big a deal, how many people are homeless?

First mention of homelessness...and it was by you.

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

Yurt123

nhunter100 wrote: »

First mention of homelessness...and it was by you.

I said that in reply to someone who blamed our paying back of EU debt to our inability to tackle the homeless problem, read back properly and you'll see it

BlinkingLights

jacksie66 wrote: »

The EU feels like that old car that you keep throwing money at to keep it going for another few months until it passes its nct..
I think the EU is going to fail its next nct..

Meanwhile the UK feels like some Auld Fella in the pub who has decided to put on his 1950s Teddy Boy outfit, slick back the hair with brill creme and try and restart his classic MG so that he can go look up his old girlfriends in the colonies and hopes they'll still be interested and might have some leads for setting up a new company.... All while hypocritically giving out about foreigners and ranting about how they're wrecked the country.

nhunter100

Yurt123 wrote:

I said that in reply to someone who blamed our paying back of EU debt to our inability to tackle the homeless problem, read back properly and you'll see it

No I'm good cheers.

KingBrian2

Too much debt in the system. Those who suffered from the debt were terrible mistreated. Creditors have a role to play in reducing harm that causes economic systems to crash.

nhunter100

BlinkingLights wrote:

Meanwhile the UK feels like some Auld Fella in the pub who has decided to put on his 1950s Teddy Boy outfit, slick back the hair with brill creme and try and restart his classic MG so that he can go look up his old girlfriends in the colonies and hopes they'll still be interested and might have some leads for setting up a new company.... All while hypocritically giving out about foreigners and ranting about how they're wrecked the country.

The British got alot of stick for refusing to switch to the Euro, if the last few years have taught me anything it's a good idea to control your own currency. As for Brexit only time will tell. I however don't think Britain will suffer as much as the rest of the EU seem to want them too.

KingBrian2

nhunter100 wrote: »

The British got alot of stick for refusing to switch to the Euro, if the last few years have taught me anything it's a good idea to control your own currency. As for Brexit only time will tell. I however don't think Britain will suffer as much as the rest of the EU seem to want them too.

The EU is not the same as the €. Britain had a big imput in the formation of the EU and the subsequent polices that were used on the likes of Greece, Italy and ourselves. That being Britain can do well out of leaving the EU except a trade war with Europe would be disastrous for them.

BlinkingLights

In the medium term / long term the UK will be ok but I think they are in for a short term mess tbh.

The worst case scenario would be Brexit while Trump has somehow caused a global recession - not beyond the realms of possibility!

2017 has a lot of unknowns and potential to get very strange.

marienbad

nhunter100 wrote: »

The British got alot of stick for refusing to switch to the Euro, if the last few years have taught me anything it's a good idea to control your own currency. As for Brexit only time will tell. I however don't think Britain will suffer as much as the rest of the EU seem to want them too.

What makes you think the EU want them to suffer ?

nhunter100

marienbad wrote:

What makes you think the EU want them to suffer ?

Oh I don't know maybe the comments of some of the leading lights in Europe Juncker/ Schultz spring to mind.

BlinkingLights

marienbad wrote: »

What makes you think the EU want them to suffer ?

I don't the the EU wants any suffering. It's just a case of also not being willing to give them access to the market on a totally unfair basis that would undermine the real members. They aren't going to get unchanged, unfettered access with the kinds of proposals they've been making so far.

The side making all the threats and aggressive comments has been the UK. There's also been a press narrative of trying to immediately portray the UK as the poor little victims of big bad Brussels simply because it's not going to get its way.

It's a negotiation though - expect a few strong words from both sides.

KingBrian2

When i look at Britain i see Thatcher like policies and a Thatcher approach to the EU. For all those in the EU who want to make it more reflective of the public than don't get any ideas out of London. They were big backers of neo-liberalism and US style crony capitalism. Jeremy Corbyn might offer a different path for Britain to take post leaving the Union but i stand by the argument that the € was a success for most EU states. 19 states in the EU that can trade with the same currency.

BlinkingLights

There's also a possibility that the EU without the UK will be less neoliberal and maybe might function better. The UK has long been turning up at meetings stroking a veto on the table.

I think many people underestimate just how much of an influence on EU policy direction the UK was.

marienbad

nhunter100 wrote: »

Oh I don't know maybe the comments of some of the leading lights in Europe Juncker/ Schultz spring to mind.

You can't be serious ? After decades of British press and politicians saying the most appalling things about the EU - you equate defending the principles on which it stands as wanting to make the UK suffer .

As someone already said the UK is the country currently with the most opt outs and it wants to change that to the country with the most opt ins .

Pointing out you can't have your cake and eat it is not wanting to make anyone suffer . It is what it is and is what the UK voted for .

There are no winners in this fiasco

nhunter100

marienbad wrote:

You can't be serious ? After decades of British press and politicians saying the most appalling things about the EU - you equate defending the principles on which it stands as wanting to make the UK suffer .

Actually I'm quite serious, I have heard the vindictive ness in Juncker after the vote nothing got to do with defending the principles on which the EEC was founded upon. Sounded more like a schoolyard bully tbh.

KindOfIrish

nhunter100 wrote: »

Actually I'm quite serious, I have heard the vindictive ness in Juncker after the vote nothing got to do with defending the principles on which the EEC was founded upon. Sounded more like a schoolyard bully tbh.

Do you speak and understand foreign languages or you heard "the vindictiveness" in British press interpretation?

marienbad

nhunter100 wrote: »

Actually I'm quite serious, I have heard the vindictive ness in Juncker after the vote nothing got to do with defending the principles on which the EEC was founded upon. Sounded more like a schoolyard bully tbh.

There is a lot more to the EU than Junker and what he said was mild compared to the neverending rants of Farage , the lies of Johnson and the deceitfulness of Gove .

A black day all round for Europe that referendum day , I think history will show that .