Are we really back to this sh*t again?

Ayuntamiento

TheRiverman wrote: »

David McWilliams was being slated here on Boards.ie last night when he was on the Ray D'arcy show.He did make a great point when he said that in Ireland we appear to be forgetting that the horrendous economic crash ever happened and people have an attitude that "it never happened to me and never will"and that is why we are heading back to the same craziness again.
I posted last night that back in 2003 McWilliams was laughed at when he predicted the crash.Are people going to laugh at and ignore him again?

Most ordinary people are busy getting on with the various stages of their lives and aren't analyzing financial markets or trying to predict an economic crash.

What real options do people have aside from buying their own home? Renting is horrendous- expensive and with zero stability. And when you end your working days, where will you live? Pensions won't be worth much.

People want to have kids, pets, real lives, etc. That's why they buy. If you can afford the mortgage and the property will meet your needs long-term, it's probably the best financial decision you can make.

Wanderer78

Ayuntamiento wrote: »

Most ordinary people are busy getting on with the various stages of their lives and aren't analyzing financial markets or trying to predict an economic crash.

i ll be messing around with the minsky software soon, i ll let everybody know if i spot anything:D

KungPao

TheRiverman wrote: »

David McWilliams was being slated here on Boards.ie last night when he was on the Ray D'arcy show.He did make a great point when he said that in Ireland we appear to be forgetting that the horrendous economic crash ever happened and people have an attitude that "it never happened to me and never will"and that is why we are heading back to the same craziness again.
I posted last night that back in 2003 McWilliams was laughed at when he predicted the crash.Are people going to laugh at and ignore him again?

Bah.

He's just another one on the sidelines cribbin' and moanin', in fact I don't know how people like him don't just commit suicide.

Samuel T. Cogley

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The problem is when did it not become a privilege. Or at least, the Irish think that it is not a privilege, and that 2500sq ft of dormer with twin garage on an acre should be for everyone.
The lack of realism, and expectations of far too many, who cannot afford one, that the should be able to afford a house, is just bananas in this country.

+ ∞

And when did living in working class areas fall out of vogue with working class people? I'm closer to town, around the same floor space as the three bed and around half the bloody price as that new development.

Absolute madness.

Dirty Dingus McGee

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The problem is when did it not become a privilege. Or at least, the Irish think that it is not a privilege, and that 2500sq ft of dormer with twin garage on an acre should be for everyone.
The lack of realism, and expectations of far too many, who cannot afford one, that the should be able to afford a house, is just bananas in this country.

Owning a home should be a standard part of life and not some sort of luxury .It isn't affordable for a large amount of people or else they face a massive commute for your whole life.I don't think there is anything wrong with wanting some sort of affordable house and not being crippled with a long commute for your whole life.I don't think most people are looking for the sort of house you described above.

TheRiverman

Cameo wrote: »

I genuinely don't remember McWilliams being laughed at when he predicted the crash - not saying it didn't happen, I just can't remember it.

There were plenty who didn't want to admit it couldn't last (likely knowing deep down that it couldn't) but plenty who knew it couldn't last and didn't behave stupidly.

I don't get this smug, self flagellating stuff like "we'll never learn" and "the Irish are a joke" and "the Irish have short memories" - from Irish people. Speak for yourselves there buddies.

Ireland and the recession[edit]
In 2003, on RTÉ 1 he argued that the housing boom was nothing but a “confidence trick” foisted on the Irish people by “an unholy alliance of bankers, landowners and a pliant political class” which would collapse resulting “in a generation in negative equity”[6]
Having predicted the crash, McWilliams sees debt forgiveness and large debt for equity initiatives as a way of reducing personal debts. These ideas are explored extensively in “The Good Room”.

pablo128

A 3 car garage with a little house on the side would be enough for me.:pac:

jester77

bluewolf wrote: »

They must have big deposits

Yip, I would guess must of these couples are in their mid-30's with around 15 years of work experience behind them. Even with some modest saving it would be very easy for each of them to have 6 figure savings. So not unrealistic for these couples to have at least 200-300k in savings.

Wanderer78

TheRiverman wrote: »

Ireland and the recession[edit]
In 2003, on RTÉ 1 he argued that the housing boom was nothing but a “confidence trick” foisted on the Irish people by “an unholy alliance of bankers, landowners and a pliant political class” which would collapse resulting “in a generation in negative equity”[6]
Having predicted the crash, McWilliams sees debt forgiveness and large debt for equity initiatives as a way of reducing personal debts. These ideas are explored extensively in “The Good Room”.

many post-Keynesian economist such as steve keen and michael hudson etc would also advocate for a 'debt jubilee', i suspect we may have no choice but to do this eventually. time will tell i guess

Yourself isit

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The problem is when did it not become a privilege. Or at least, the Irish think that it is not a privilege, and that 2500sq ft of dormer with twin garage on an acre should be for everyone.
The lack of realism, and expectations of far too many, who cannot afford one, that the should be able to afford a house, is just bananas in this country.

Again with "the Irish". Buffoonish nonsense.

Irish people don't want especially big houses, this isn't America. Or Germany. Standard build is 2/3 up and down. Semi detached.

What this thread is about is the increase in prices of normal houses. Nothing else.

Ayuntamiento

TheRiverman wrote: »

Ireland and the recession[edit]
In 2003, on RTÉ 1 he argued that the housing boom was nothing but a “confidence trick” foisted on the Irish people by “an unholy alliance of bankers, landowners and a pliant political class” which would collapse resulting “in a generation in negative equity”[6]
Having predicted the crash, McWilliams sees debt forgiveness and large debt for equity initiatives as a way of reducing personal debts. These ideas are explored extensively in “The Good Room”.

I always thought the boom was largely due to a rapidly expanding middle class in this country, fueled by free access to 3rd level education. Most of my friends are doctors/solicitors/accountants and yet few came from backgrounds where their parents even had 3rd level degrees.

More money chasing the same finite resources causing an overheated market.

StudentDad

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The problem is when did it not become a privilege. Or at least, the Irish think that it is not a privilege, and that 2500sq ft of dormer with twin garage on an acre should be for everyone.
The lack of realism, and expectations of far too many, who cannot afford one, that the should be able to afford a house, is just bananas in this country.

Fascinating, we have a low population density over much of the country. Why everyone has to be crammed into Dublin and the other cities like sardines beggars belief. If I can pay a premium for living in Dublin and live in a shoebox or build something considerably larger away from Dublin for less, I know what I'd do. However, govt policy seems to be to try and cram as many people into urban areas as possible. Where is the public transport network that can facilitate this? Services all seem to be focused on Dublin etc. The children's hosp as an example, why does it have to be in the middle of Dublin? It would function just as well outside of the city and probably cost a whole lot less to build and run.

SD

Yourself isit

jester77 wrote: »

Yip, I would guess must of these couples are in their mid-30's with around 15 years of work experience behind them. Even with some modest saving it would be very easy for each of them to have 6 figure savings. So not unrealistic for these couples to have at least 200-300k in savings.

Unless they were living at home I doubt it.

Some of the high deposits is people selling houses in dublin though.

Sleeper12

TheRiverman wrote:

David McWilliams was being slated here on Boards.ie last night when he was on the Ray D'arcy show.He did make a great point when he said that in Ireland we appear to be forgetting that the horrendous economic crash ever happened and people have an attitude that "it never happened to me and never will"and that is why we are heading back to the same craziness again. I posted last night that back in 2003 McWilliams was laughed at when he predicted the crash.Are people going to laugh at and ignore him again?

Likewise though there are too many people asking when is the next crash going to happen. We've only ever had one crash here . There was a world crash. Not taking blame from ff but it was worldwide. Too many people in this country are afraid that the sky is falling

Samuel T. Cogley

Yourself isit wrote: »

Unless they were living at home I doubt it.

Some of the high deposits is people selling houses in dublin though.

Another option would be stuck in apartments which they either managed to shift or didn't and rented out. The tracker rates would have meant it was very easy to save. However I think you're right that there would be a lot of trading up going on.

Wanderer78

Ayuntamiento wrote: »

I always thought the boom was largely due to a rapidly expanding middle class in this country, fueled by free access to 3rd level education. Most of my friends are doctors/solicitors/accountants and yet few came from backgrounds where their parents even had 3rd level degrees.

More money chasing the same finite resources causing an overheated market.

not at all, debt fueled asset bubble, largely caused by flawed economic theories and principles such as neoliberalism and free market economics etc and no, not much has changed since the crash. round and round we go!

realitykeeper

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Some might say, it's good for the economy!

Be sure to correct them about that.

jester77

Yourself isit wrote: »

Unless they were living at home I doubt it.

Some of the high deposits is people selling houses in dublin though.

Just do the maths, if you only saved 500 a month, then after 15 years you have 90k, and that is before you take whatever way you have invested it. Anyone on a semi-decent salary can easily put away at least 500 a month

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

many post-Keynesian economist such as steve keen and michael hudson etc would also advocate for a 'debt jubilee', i suspect we may have no choice but to do this eventually. time will tell i guess

Unfortunately, with things "doing so well" at the moment, there is no need for a debt jubilee for those who live in the right places. If you're in arrears in a house in that the market could easily sell on, you're at a high risk of being repossessed and be left with the outstanding debt while the bank sells your home AND sell a mortgage in the deal.

OTOH, If you live in the back of beyond in negative equity and arrears, chances are that for the time being you'll be left alone as the house is worthless to the bank as no one else wants to live there.

Berserker

StudentDad wrote: »

Fascinating, we have a low population density over much of the country. Why everyone has to be crammed into Dublin and the other cities like sardines beggars belief. ..... However, govt policy seems to be to try and cram as many people into urban areas as possible.

They tried to move people away from Dublin in some of the public sector organisations and it was a complete disaster. Do you not remember that? People want to live and work in the major cities, Dublin in particular.

The Rape of Lucretia

Yourself isit wrote: »

Irish people don't want especially big houses, this isn't America. Or Germany. Standard build is 2/3 up and down. Semi detached.

What this thread is about is the increase in prices of normal houses. Nothing else.

Fuelled by far too many trying to afford a 'normal' house, and what they perceive a normal house to be. 600sq of feet two up two down, or appartment of the same size does not seem acceptable to enough people - even if thats what they can afford and should be looking for.

Wanderer78

Berserker wrote: »

People want to live and work in the major cities, Dublin in particular.

some people do alright but some like me, really dont. more to life than high cost of living and long commutes.

Gavlor

The blame the banks culture is hilarious. The banks don't create idiots, they facilitate them.

StudentDad

Berserker wrote: »

They tried to move people away from Dublin in some of the public sector organisations and it was a complete disaster. Do you not remember that? People want to live and work in the major cities, Dublin in particular.

Yes, again though it's down to decent transport links. Improve the services and transport links and people would probably move. This island is tiny, why everyone has to be crammed into Dublin etc is madness.

SD

Samuel T. Cogley

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Fuelled by far too many trying to afford a 'normal' house, and what they perceive a normal house to be. 600sq of feet two up two down, or appartment of the same size does not seem acceptable to enough people - even if thats what they can afford and should be looking for.

It's not even a space issue. Suggest to some people in fairly modest jobs that they should look in Finglas, Tallaght, Kilbarrack, Drimnagh, Donagmede or Coolock and they'll look at you as if you've suggested moving into a rape addled warzone.

Wanderer78

Gavlor wrote: »

The blame the banks culture is hilarious. The banks don't create idiots, they facilitate them.

ah yes, the common misconception of banking. banks are no longer 'facilitators', they create the majority of money we use! they are not just players in game but in fact major players. something of which conventional economists fail to realise.

NIMAN

Ayuntamiento wrote: »

What real options do people have aside from buying their own home? Renting is horrendous- expensive and with zero stability. And when you end your working days, where will you live? Pensions won't be worth much.

People want to have kids, pets, real lives, etc. That's why they buy. If you can afford the mortgage and the property will meet your needs long-term, it's probably the best financial decision you can make.

Plenty of other nations have kids, pets, real lives, but don't share the Irish and British obsession with owning property.

If it was organised properly, we could create a proper rental system like many European countries have, where you have the security that you won't be turfed out to get in someone paying more rent.

We used to have a Swedish visitor come here, and he was renting the same place for 20+ years. He never had any inclination to buy a house. He didn't need to.

jackinthemix94

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

It's not even a space issue. Suggest to some people in fairly modest jobs that they should look in Finglas, Tallaght, Kilbarrack, Drimnagh, Donagmede or Coolock and they'll look at you as if you've suggested moving into a rape addled warzone.

I can only comment on the last 4 from personal experience but those areas are ghetto AF. Who wants to live around all those grotty council houses, graffiti and tracksuit clad scroungers all day.

Aspirational people aspire to a life that's better than that.

The Rape of Lucretia

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

It's not even a space issue. Suggest to some people in fairly modest jobs that they should look in Finglas, Tallaght, Kilbarrack, Drimnagh, Donagmede or Coolock and they'll look at you as if you've suggested moving into a rape addled warzone.

Oh indeed. Declare half the greater Dublin area as non of interest to live in, and of course the prices in the rest will jack up out of normal proportion. Eveybody cant live in Dalkey or Howth.

Berserker

Wanderer78 wrote: »

some people do alright but some like me, really dont. more to life than high cost of living and long commutes.

Oh, I'm with you. We have been tied to Dublin as a result of my OH's job. We are moving abroad later this year or early next year, to a small city that has none of this nonsense and great transport links. Both of us can't wait.

Ayuntamiento

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

It's not even a space issue. Suggest to some people in fairly modest jobs that they should look in Finglas, Tallaght, Kilbarrack, Drimnagh, Donagmede or Coolock and they'll look at you as if you've suggested moving into a rape addled warzone.

There's nothing wrong with those 'working class' areas where most of the original residents have moved on and the houses have been bought up/renovated by people who actually do work.
Nobody wants to live in an area with ingrained unemployment, drug problems, feral kids roaming the streets, etc. It's not even snobbery, it's about feeling safe in your home.

darkpagandeath

Icemancometh wrote: »

What big companies did the government choose to locate in Dublin? Seems to me official policy is to encourage companies to locate outside Dublin.

Have you seen how hard it is to get planning permission off the Nimbys. They want jobs but not the buildings.

Yourself isit

jester77 wrote: »

Just do the maths, if you only saved 500 a month, then after 15 years you have 90k, and that is before you take whatever way you have invested it. Anyone on a semi-decent salary can easily put away at least 500 a month

The guy I was replying to said 200-300k.

Berserker

Ayuntamiento wrote: »

Nobody wants to live in an area with ingrained unemployment, drug problems, feral kids roaming the streets, etc. It's not even snobbery, it's about feeling safe in your home.

Most of these areas were not like that anyway. I grew up round the corner from one of "those estates" and most of my life-long best friends are from "those estates". Their parents worked, the was the odd bit of anti-social behavior and the drug problem was no better or worse than I've experienced anywhere else. The snobbery against council estates is something else!! The vast majority of the people there were lovely.

Berserker

Berserker wrote: »

They tried to move people away from Dublin in some of the public sector organisations and it was a complete disaster. Do you not remember that? People want to live and work in the major cities, Dublin in particular.

it was only really a disaster for Dubs who didn't want to go to the sticks to work, for many of the staff it was great to be able to live and work near to where they called "home".
Staff should have been given the option of transferring between departments if one was being moved into their hometowns.

It would have worked better if branch offices had been set up rather than trying to move an entire department in one piece to an outlying rural town.

Samuel T. Cogley

jackinthemix94 wrote: »

I can only comment on the last 4 from personal experience but those areas are ghetto AF. Who wants to live around all those grotty council houses, graffiti and tracksuit clad scroungers all day.

Aspirational people aspire to a life that's better than that.

Quick look out the window earlier massive group of teenagers walking down the road, saw me looking out the window and one waved and the another said, shhh, shhh, thinking I was being disturbed, I was actually just curious as to what the noise was (not that it was particularly loud)

Other than at the myriad of things organised by various people in the community I hardly ever see anyone in trakkies. The grotty council houses are extremely well maintained and the community recently help fund doing up one of the several massive green spaces.

As for scroungers, while there are certaily some housewives in the area, it's a Working class area, almost everyone in the area works, funnily enough.

Ghetto AF indeed.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Oh indeed. Declare half the greater Dublin area as non of interest to live in, and of course the prices in the rest will jack up out of normal proportion. Eveybody cant live in Dalkey or Howth.

What makes me laugh is they don't even seem to try. They go to Portmarnock FFS!

darkpagandeath

Deleted User wrote: »

it was only really a disaster for Dubs who didn't want to go to the sticks to work, for many of the staff it was great to be able to live and work near to where they called "home".

It would have worked better if branch offices had been set up rather than trying to move an entire department in one piece to an outlying rural town.

Remember the PS debacle.

Yourself isit

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Fuelled by far too many trying to afford a 'normal' house, and what they perceive a normal house to be. 600sq of feet two up two down, or appartment of the same size does not seem acceptable to enough people - even if thats what they can afford and should be looking for.

Sorry. Irelands new builds are the second smallest in Europe. Denmark house sizes are twice as big. It has nothing to do with wanting large houses. You don't get to create your own facts.

Samuel T. Cogley

Ayuntamiento wrote: »

There's nothing wrong with those 'working class' areas where most of the original residents have moved on and the houses have been bought up/renovated by people who actually do work.
Nobody wants to live in an area with ingrained unemployment, drug problems, feral kids roaming the streets, etc. It's not even snobbery, it's about feeling safe in your home.

There are a tiny handful of areas like that left in Dublin. There are large areas people won't even dare look at, and I actually don't think it's purely down to safety. There is defiantly a snobbery about property in Dublin.

jester77

Yourself isit wrote: »

The guy I was replying to said 200-300k.

Yeah, but if you take 2 people saving just 500 each a month then you are at 180k after 15 years, plus then add in your return on investment and you should be over 200k. Someone after 15 years of working can put a lot more than 500 away a month, so 300k is far from unrealistic.

Yourself isit

NIMAN wrote: »

Plenty of other nations have kids, pets, real lives, but don't share the Irish and British obsession with owning property.

If it was organised properly, we could create a proper rental system like many European countries have, where you have the security that you won't be turfed out to get in someone paying more rent.

We used to have a Swedish visitor come here, and he was renting the same place for 20+ years. He never had any inclination to buy a house. He didn't need to.

That's not true either. Most European countries have higher ownership rates than Ireland.

The ones that don't (Germany mostly) have extremely strong rental protection.

darkpagandeath

jester77 wrote: »

Yeah, but if you take 2 people saving just 500 each a month then you are at 180k after 15 years, plus then add in your return on investment and you should be over 200k. Someone after 15 years of working can put a lot more than 500 away a month, so 300k is far from unrealistic.

That's true but would they strip out the new cars holidays and alike to live pretty frugally ? Ireland has an odd obsession with owning a house I.E a family home Kind of like the UK. A lot of Europeans rent.

Ayuntamiento

Berserker wrote: »

Most of these areas were not like that anyway. I grew up round the corner from one of "those estates" and most of my life-long best friends are from "those estates". Their parents worked, the was the odd bit of anti-social behavior and the drug problem was no better or worse than I've experienced anywhere else. The snobbery against council estates is something else!! The vast majority of the people there were lovely.

I have no experience of living in that type of area so I suppose I'm just basing it off the fact that I felt quite intimidated when I went to view properties in similar places.
I'm sure there are lovely people mixed in with trouble makers but you'd be mad to say that living near the Dolphin's barns flats is no different from living in Ranelagh for example.
The drug problems and gangland murders are hardly fabricated.

Yourself isit

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

There are a tiny handful of areas like that left in Dublin. There are large areas people won't even dare look at, and I actually don't think it's purely down to safety. There is defiantly a snobbery about property in Dublin.

Plenty of older working class areas have houses at 300k-400k. Sometimes old council stock.

Cameo

Well anyone I know who grew up in an area of Dublin with serious social problems (and there appears to be a downplaying of this very real phenomenon here, just for the sake of argument) got the feck out of there as fast as they could, and will not be returning. Are they snobs? No, they just know how hard it is to live in a place where you're constantly being intimidated, and they don't want their kids to go through the same.

However, I know plenty of council estates don't have such problems - there is an assumption that all do.

Samuel T. Cogley

Ayuntamiento wrote: »

I have no experience of living in that type of area so I suppose I'm just basing it off the fact that I felt quite intimidated when I went to view properties in similar places.
I'm sure there are lovely people mixed in with trouble makers but you'd be mad to say that living near the Dolphin's barns flats is no different from living in Ranelagh for example.
The drug problems and gangland murders are hardly fabricated.

No they're not the same, absolutely, but the point being made is not everywhere is Darndale or Donnybrook. People need to keep an open mind. Absolutely, 100% of course, you have to move where you feel happy.

Yourself isit

darkpagandeath wrote: »

That's true but would they strip out the new cars holidays and alike to live pretty frugally ? Ireland has an odd obsession with owning a house I.E a family home Kind of like the UK. A lot of Europeans rent.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

We're below average.

darkpagandeath

Cameo wrote: »

Well anyone I know who grew up in an area of Dublin with serious social problems (and there appears to be a downplaying of this very real phenomenon here, just for the sake of argument) got the feck out of there as fast as they could, and will not be returning. Are they snobs? No, they just know how hard it is to live in a place where you're constantly being intimidated.

However, I know plenty of council estates don't have such problems - there is an assumption that all do.

It's a Issue alright, But depends. 15-20 years ago my area was really rough. Will not say where. But it was cleaned up via jailing, kids growing up and building private houses and apartments next to the area. Yes there are kids going around the place harmless though. No stolen cars no burnt out stuff no litter to speak of. Most had the option to buy the CC house. That's the major incentive to clear up places. They cant sell a house or increase it value with idiots living in the area.

Samuel T. Cogley

Yourself isit wrote: »

Plenty of older working class areas have houses at 300k-400k. Sometimes old council stock.

You'll get no argument there! Two streets over from me it's madness what houses cost.

drunkmonkey

Berserker wrote: »

They tried to move people away from Dublin in some of the public sector organisations and it was a complete disaster. Do you not remember that? People want to live and work in the major cities, Dublin in particular.

Completely disagree, what people outside the pale want is high speed trains to Dublin and world class public transport, it's only a little island it's shouldn't be this hard to get around.
We have to go for work we don't want to live there.