Mayo constituency GE2020

spakman

RCW is now ahead of Dillon to take the 4th seat according to Paddy Power.

Stewball

spakman wrote: »

RCW is now ahead of Dillon to take the 4th seat according to Paddy Power.

Even though Fine Gael are plummeting in the polls - Mayo will still elect Alan Dillon, who has zero experience in politics just because he played GAA. Crazy!

It's the most predictable constituency in the country. It'll be Calleary, Chambers, Ring & Dillon.

farmchoice

Stewball wrote: »

Even though Fine Gael are plummeting in the polls - Mayo will still elect Alan Dillon, who has zero experience in politics just because he played GAA. Crazy!

It's the most predictable constituency in the country. It'll be Calleary, Chambers, Ring & Dillon.

i dont know if the GAA thing holds as much water as people think. it worked for john o mahoney once but in reality he was elected on the back of the FG wave that year.

dillon is in the shake up first and fore-mostly because he is FG looking to hold the seat of enda kenny, the previously longest sitting TD in the country. having name recognition helps of course but there are very few people who would vote for someone just because they were a high class inside forward.

id still give mulherin the nod over dillon, she has that bit more experience and operated a policy of shadowing Michael ring everywhere he went for a few years now. this may result in the necessary transfers needed.

the bit threat now i suppose to fg is that they will manage to split the vote enough to let RCW in. i think this is a real possibility now.
for some reason the calleary camp are in a state of near panic, for a while i couldn't quite understand why but of course its RCW, she could easily do what gerry crowley did tom moffet.

https://www.mayonews.ie/news/34886-how-will-you-vote-election-2020

Surely FG won't get two seats based on this poll. If vote management is going on I wonder what Micheal rings 1st preference vote will be like?

Conway Walsh and McHugh will be well ahead of the 2 FG candidates

Look at Aontu's performance the margin of error could be 10% easy ðŸ˜

spakman

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.mayonews.ie/news/34886-how-will-you-vote-election-2020

Surely FG won't get two seats based on this poll. If vote management is going on I wonder what Micheal rings 1st preference vote will be like?

Conway Walsh and McHugh will be well ahead of the 2 FG candidates

Look at Aontu's performance the margin of error could be 10% easy ðŸ˜

Well I'm not sure how much you can read into that. A lot of the Mayo voter demographic wouldn't be ones for online polls (or anything online tbh!)
Can anyone see Aontú getting more votes than FG!?

mickdw

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.mayonews.ie/news/34886-how-will-you-vote-election-2020

Surely FG won't get two seats based on this poll. If vote management is going on I wonder what Micheal rings 1st preference vote will be like?

Conway Walsh and McHugh will be well ahead of the 2 FG candidates

Look at Aontu's performance the margin of error could be 10% easy ðŸ˜

I'm not a FG fan but Michael Ring will be first home by a country mile. Even party voting strategy doesn't stop people in other areas voting for him.
That mayo news pole is horsesh1t. Aontu won't get anywhere like that vote and 4.t percent for freedom party - joke.
It will surely be 2 FF, 1 FG and a fight between Dillon, RCW and mulhern

iluvfatfrogs

That poll was accessed primarily through links from Facebook / Twitter.

People regularly using Facebook are def not a sample of the population.

How long since anyone put together a correctly structured sentence on FB, never mind one that is making a valid point.

patrickn

Strange decision by RTE to exclude RCW from debate on Six One News. She was not invited to the debate with other women candidates.

mickdw

She got a recorded piece though.

I know the pole was way off when I see Aontu on 15%. But I can't see the other 2 FG candidates getting enough. FG voters are swaying.

And while Ring will get plenty of votes he won't carry anyone else. The order of the first count.

Calleary
Ring
Chambers
RCW
McHugh.
Mulhern
Dillon

Toss up between RCW and McHugh for the last. Anyone 3lse want to have a go at predictions.

Dudda

Deleted User wrote: »

I know the pole was way off when I see Aontu on 15%. But I can't see the other 2 FG candidates getting enough. FG voters are swaying.

And while Ring will get plenty of votes he won't carry anyone else. The order of the first count.

Calleary
Ring
Chambers
RCW
McHugh
Mulhern
Dillon

Toss up between RCW and McHugh for the last. Anyone 3lse want to have a go at predictions.

Your first preference order isn’t far off my thoughts but I think Dillon will be ahead of Mulherin and think Ring will top the poll but I don’t think it matters who tops the poll as the top three will get in.

It’s all down to transfers I think. The smaller people like PBP, Renua, Aontú, independents will be eliminated one by one and I don’t think they’ll have enough numbers or transfers to influence overall positions to much. McHugh and Conway should do the best from these and eliminations should happen fairly quickly for anyone watching the count. Then it gets serious.

If at this stage Dillon outpolls Mulherin and she is eliminated, Dillon should be the winner on transfers. Likewise any of Ring’s surplus if he’s elected. If Mulherin outpolls Dillon it’s the same but reversed.

The order at this stage and the gap is critical. I think these transfers will be enough to put Dillon ahead of McHugh and that means McHugh gets eliminated. You’re now down to Conway and Dillon for the final seat and not Conway and McHugh as you think.

I believe Conway will do better than Dillon in picking up McHugh transfers and I think SF will pick up the final seat. If Dillon has a decent first preference and does well in Ring surplus and Mulherin Transfers and manages to jump Conway prior to McHugh eliminated then he might hang on and get the final seat. This is the only way it will remain 2 FG and 2 FF but I think it’s a stretch two far.
If however he has a disaster in first preference and transfers and doesn’t leap McHugh he’s eliminated but I don’t see it going that bad.

I think the key point is Mulherin’s elimination and how close it is at that stage.
I’ve stuck my neck out and those are my thoughts. We’ll see how close I am Friday. EDIT: I mean early Monday morning!

irishgeo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I know the pole was way off when I see Aontu on 15%. But I can't see the other 2 FG candidates getting enough. FG voters are swaying.

And while Ring will get plenty of votes he won't carry anyone else. The order of the first count.

Calleary
Ring
Chambers
RCW
McHugh.
Mulhern
Dillon

Toss up between RCW and McHugh for the last. Anyone 3lse want to have a go at predictions.

No way McHugh gets ahead of dillion and mulherin. Ring will top the pole. Chambers might feel the wrath of voters and her voting scandal.

iluvfatfrogs

I'll be surprised on Monday if McHugh is actually in the shake up for a seat.
Got 8.6% of the European Vote but was a total unknown and may voted for her without knowing who she was and definitely without ever hearing her speak.
Every interview I've seen off her recently has diminished by opinion of her standing.

Saying that I would have said the same thing about RCW 6 months ago, but people are watching and listening to the nationwide attention that SF are getting are some are likely to jump on.

I'll still predict 2 FF/ 2 FG but cant call the 2nd FG seat.

Where are all the extra votes going to come from.

RCW got 6000 last time. She could get another 2 - 3 thousand. Calleary's vote will improve from last time out.
The green candidate is way more high profile. 650 votes last time. She could get 5000 votes.

Is ring going to jump 5000 votes with Kenny gone. I doubt it.

Shelflife

I think it will be 2 FF and 2FG , it depends on how many Kenny votes Dillon picks up. If they move to Ring or Mulherin then , Mulherin gets in. I think RCW and Mchugh will effectively ruin each other’s chance of election. If only one of them ran they would have a good chance.

seligehgit

seligehgit wrote: »

Six one news's outside broadcast came from Westport.

Very good coverage of Mayo in general and the issues facing rural Ireland.

Pretty much every election candidate got to put his/her tuppence in.

Lisa Chambers,Michelle Mulherin and Saoirse Mc Hugh were interviewed.

I can't fault Saoirse.She's an extremely bright individual with the best of intentions.I greatly admire her idealism but yet her speak is largely aspirational with few concrete proposals.

Not enough to get one elected one suspects.

I have a sneaking suspicion there's going to be a political shock of seismic proportions with Rose Conway Walsh elected based on the Sinn Fein surge nationally.

think thats a fair analysis, and ive no love at all for FF but Chambers came across excellently imo.

Mulherin was not at all convincing, FG are really ill-prepared to do anything but point to their spending, which rings far too hollow because it's as if they are simply telling people "you're well off, what more can we do?", and you need to be far more convincing that the senator to pull that off.

saoirse, oh daoirse. immensely likeable, clearly very bright, but as you said zero said that wasnt wishes and hopes, and a green in the west is already fighting uphill enough without approaching things naively

Westernyelp

Dudda wrote:

I think the key point is Mulherin’s elimination and how close it is at that stage. I’ve stuck my neck out and those are my thoughts. We’ll see how close I am Friday. EDIT: I mean early Monday morning!

Spot on analysis Dudda.

Loafing Oaf

RCW now in to 4/11 with Paddy Power. They seem pretty sure where the four seats are going...

robman60

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

RCW now in to 4/11 with Paddy Power. They seem pretty sure where the four seats are going...

The odds on individual constituencies are swayed extremely quickly by relatively small amounts going on. I put about €30 on someone in another constituency and odds changed drastically within the hour.

I think she is definitely in with a great shout for the last seat but those odds are saying she has a 70% or so chance of getting in which is not the case.

robman60

For some reason I had in my had that RCW got about 6% FPV last time around. Seems she got just over 10%. If the Sinn Féin bounce materialises even partially she has to be a shoe-in for the last seat. Especially when the FG vote will be down and Dillon and Mulherin will split it. As I've said I've seen people who I thought hadn't the slightest interest in politics advocating SF vote this election.

Yes, it's been simplistic 'Bankers should be jailed' sort of stuff, but every ballot counts the same. I'm predicting she will finish ahead of Chambers too.

My prediction in order:
Ring
Calleary
RCW
Chambers

Raisins

robman60 wrote: »

For some reason I had in my had that RCW got about 6% FPV last time around. Seems she got just over 10%. If the Sinn Féin bounce materialises even partially she has to be a shoe-in for the last seat. Especially when the FG vote will be down and Dillon and Mulherin will split it. As I've said I've seen people who I thought hadn't the slightest interest in politics advocating SF vote this election.

Yes, it's been simplistic 'Bankers should be jailed' sort of stuff, but every ballot counts the same. I'm predicting she will finish ahead of Chambers too.

My prediction in order:
Ring
Calleary
RCW
Chambers

Hard to know what will happen to these 3/4 seats when candidates are eliminated. I assume McHugh will transfer we’ll to RCW.

In 2016 RCW transferred heavily to Chambers which kept Chambers ahead of mulherrin. It’s hard to know what will happen there this time.

I wonder will this be one of the constituencies where there’s actually sone transfers from FG to FF. Ivan Yeats is predicating that as a new trend in this election among FG moderates who are desperate to prevent a SF surge. You might see some Dillon (Castlebar) votes kick over to Chambers (castlebar). Probably not in fairness.

Loafing Oaf

Raisins wrote: »

Hard to know what will happen to these 3/4 seats when candidates are eliminated. I assume McHugh will transfer we’ll to RCW.

In 2016 RCW transferred heavily to Chambers which kept Chambers ahead of mulherrin. It’s hard to know what will happen there this time.

I'm assuming there'll be enough of a simple FF to FG swing to guarantee both FF seats, even if FF lose a fair chunk to SF. I'd imagine RCW would pick up more votes from Calleary, who can better afford to lose them, than from Chambers...

So I'm anticipating a battle between RCW and the stronger of Dillon and Mulherin for the final seat...

Going by what's being said and last time out

Count 1

Enda Kenny , FG 13318
Michael Ring , FG 11275
Dara Calleary , FF 9402
Lisa Chambers , FF 8231
Michelle Mulherin , FG 7841
Rose Conway-Walsh , SF 6414
Jerry Cowley , IND 3479
Michael Farrington , RN 1574
Margaret Sheehan , GP 629


There was around 62000 votes when 1500 among all the others are not included.

There is 50 % of the vote there for FG last time. Surely that drops. Ring's vote will improve because Enda is gone. But 32000 votes between the 3 candidates definitely not there now
The voting scandal I doubt will be to the forefront of peoples minds so Chambers will stay the same or even improve. I'm going for Calleary to improve as a potential Tainaiste.

RCW will improve but obviously not in line with Sinn Fein nationally and Mchugh will get 7 - 10 percent as well

Calleary 12500
Ring 12500
Chambers 10000
RCW 9000
Mchugh 7000
Mulherin 7000
Dillon 4000

Am I mad in the head to think McHugh will get 7000 votes?

naughto

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Going by what's being said and last time out



Count 1

Enda Kenny , FG 13318
Michael Ring , FG 11275
Dara Calleary , FF 9402
Lisa Chambers , FF 8231
Michelle Mulherin , FG 7841
Rose Conway-Walsh , SF 6414
Jerry Cowley , IND 3479
Michael Farrington , RN 1574
Margaret Sheehan , GP 629


There was around 62000 votes when 1500 among all the others are not included.


There is 50 % of the vote there for FG last time. Surely that drops. Ring's vote will improve because Enda is gone. But 32000 votes between the 3 candidates definitely not there now



The voting scandal I doubt will be to the forefront of peoples minds so Chambers will stay the same or even improve. I'm going for Calleary to improve as a potential Tainaiste.


RCW will improve but obviously not in line with Sinn Fein nationally and Mchugh will get 7 - 10 percent as well


Calleary 12500
Ring 12500
Chambers 10000
RCW 9000
Mchugh 7000
Mulherin 7000
Dillon 4000


Am I mad in the head to think McHugh will get 7000 votes?

Your mad if you think McHugh will get more than dillion enda has being with dillion 90% of the time on the campaign mulherin must be spitting feathers over this.
I think it will be dillion rwc for the last seat when mulherin
Gets eliminated it could push dillion ahead of rwc

PressRun

seligehgit wrote: »

I have a sneaking suspicion there's going to be a political shock of seismic proportions with Rose Conway Walsh elected based on the Sinn Fein surge nationally.

If she gets elected, it won't be down to the Sinn Fein surge. She is doing a lot of work locally and is well liked amongst a few communities, this I know. Can't say if it will be enough to get her elected in the end, but to be fair to her, she's been doing plenty since the last election, building her profile and connecting with communities. She's been working a lot harder than Alan Dillon, that's for sure.

naughto

naughto wrote: »

Your mad if you think McHugh will get more than dillion enda has being with dillion 90% of the time on the campaign mulherin must be spitting feathers over this.
I think it will be dillion rwc for the last seat when mulherin
Gets eliminated it could push dillion ahead of rwc

I suppose I don't see a lot of that living in North West Mayo. Ring's team is going around with a list as long as my arm of the money he has brought in. Road improvements, schemes, community development, sports facilities etc.
I haven't got Lawless in my figures. Don't know much about how he will do.

PARlance

naughto wrote: »

Your mad if you think McHugh will get more than dillion enda has being with dillion 90% of the time on the campaign mulherin must be spitting feathers over this.
I think it will be dillion rwc for the last seat when mulherin
Gets eliminated it could push dillion ahead of rwc

Enda struggled to get that seat by himself at times and from what I've heard, Dillon isn't blowing traditional FG voters away in Castlebar and the surrounding areas. I think FG will cost themselves a seat by running 3 candidates this time around.

I think RCW will get a seat. From the limited people I've talked to, I think she'll get a large vote from women, people wanting change, people wanting a viable (non independent) candidate in Mayo. McHugh will eat into that vote a little, but not much imo. I've been very surprised by some people who will be voting for her, my own mother has voted FG/Lab all her life and would be very conservative. She wouldn't care too much for SF's history or politics but she has been impressed with RCW. If Conway Walsh is picking up those kind of votes, she'll get in.

I think Chsmbers will do worse than she expects but by only running 2 candidates, I think FF will be assured of a seat.

Ring, Calleary, Conway Walsh and Chambers.
I'll go for it in that order.

Knock2

So does mulherin have no chance,is there a chance she will pick up on dillons slippage and improve her previous first preference?where will rings surplus go?
Where will daras surplus go,a large part of n mayo may vote cross party and local ie.. Dara/ mulherin?

Water John

If FF form a Govn't with other parties, the Tanaiste will not be FF.

Raisins

Knock2 wrote: »

Where will daras surplus go,a large part of n mayo may vote cross party and local ie.. Dara/ mulherin?

No chance. His surplus will go to chambers. Dara to RCW maybe if it’s a north mayo thing but even then I don’t think so.