Mayo constituency GE2020

Raisins

Water John wrote: »

If FF form a Govn't with other parties, the Tanaiste will not be FF.

Needless to say but the green numbers suggest another minority government.

Shorty69664

So the predicted outcome I'm taking from the exit polls, and from the pundits, is Ring, Calleary and RWC take the first three seats, not necessarily in that order, with a toss up between Chambers, Dillon and mulheairn for the last seat. It will be an interesting count.

PARlance

Shorty69664 wrote: »

So the predicted outcome I'm taking from the exit polls, and from the pundits, is Ring, Calleary and RWC take the first three seats, not necessarily in that order, with a toss up between Chambers, Dillon and mulheairn for the last seat. It will be an interesting count.

That's the way I would imagine it. It'll be tight for the 4th seat but I expect Chambers to get it. FG costing themselves a seat by running 3 candidates.

Dudda

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CBfXja-jXqwaUfrbPLq4Y2RJiVJlid9I8JrNz45Fjek/edit?usp=drivesdk

This is the tally spreadsheet which will be updated as votes are counted and will the best early indicator. I think they're starting with the Castlebar boxes which could give the likes of Dillon an early overall number of votes so keep in consideration for the first hour or two what boxes are open and where.

9:00am. Here we go

Shorty69664

Dudda wrote: »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CBfXja-jXqwaUfrbPLq4Y2RJiVJlid9I8JrNz45Fjek/edit?usp=drivesdk

This is the tally spreadsheet which will be updated as votes are counted and will the best early indicator. I think they're starting with the Castlebar boxes which could give the likes of Dillon an early overall number of votes so keep in consideration for the first hour or two what boxes are open and where.

9:00am. Here we go

Cheers for that link Dudda, an excellent resource to track the count...

mickdw

If SF get 22 percent in mayo,
Conway Walsh should be the poll topper.
Hard to see that being the case.

Mickeroo

I don't expect mayo to follow the national trend that much tbh. I think if she gets in it will be the 4th seat.

Having said that she got my number 2 and I've never given SF a transfer before so maybe I'm wrong.

Loafing Oaf

mickdw wrote: »

If SF get 22 percent in mayo,
Conway Walsh should be the poll topper.

Presumably if that happens her transfers would favour FF over FG, guaranteeing both FF seats?

Dudda

Mickeroo wrote: »

I don't expect mayo to follow the national trend that much tbh. I think if she gets in it will be the 4th seat.

Having said that she got my number 2 and I've never given SF a transfer before so maybe I'm wrong.

Check the tally link. She's flying in early Castlebar and Ballina boxes and they haven't opened any Belmullet boxes yet. She's get the third seat at this rate

Mickeroo

Dudda wrote: »

Check the tally link. She's flying in early Castlebar and Ballina boxes and they haven't opened any Belmullet boxes yet. She's get the third seat at this rate

Had look after I posted, yeah I'll be eating those words it seems

whitey1

Is Lisa Chambers up or down in Castlebar compared to the last time out? Surprised to see RCW beating Chambers handily on her home turf

Looks like a decent enough haul for Dillon

PARlance

Only real question is whether RCW will pip Ring to top the poll.

Going to be some battle for 4th.

naughto

whitey1 wrote: »

Is Lisa Chambers up or down in Castlebar compared to the last time out? Surprised to see RCW beating Chambers handily on her home turf

Looks like a decent enough haul for Dillon

Dillion beating her in her local village is very surprising

PARlance

naughto wrote: »

Dillion beating her in her local village is very surprising

Ballyheane? He's from there as well, not surprising.

naughto

PARlance wrote: »

Ballyheane? He's from there as well, not surprising.

I no that put usually for a sitting td she would get more of the vote than a newcomer

Dudda

It's starting to show now that FG should have ran the two candidates. Nothing between Dillon and Mulherin and one would have a better chance against Chambers. Starting on Westport now where Chambers should do better than Dillon and Mulherin as Ring mopps up the FG votes. Can't see him catching RCW. She's done so well everywhere.

If Dillon is eliminated (as he's just behind Mulherin currently) will the transfers elect Chambers the neighbour or Mulherin the other FG candidate?

PARlance

Dudda wrote: »

It's starting to show now that FG should have ran the two candidates. Nothing between Dillon and Mulherin and one would have a better chance against Chambers. Starting on Westport now where Chambers should do better than Dillon and Mulherin as Ring mopps up the FG votes. Can't see him catching RCW. She's done so well everywhere.

If Dillon is eliminated (as he's just behind Mulherin currently) will the transfers elect Chambers the neighbour or Mulherin the other FG candidate?

That should have been obvious to FG before the election really. Dillon will edge ahead of Mulherin imo. It's too close to call for the 4th.

Think Ring will just catch RCW to top it, by 500 or so votes.

irishgeo

PARlance wrote: »

That should have been obvious to FG before the election really. Dillon will edge ahead of Mulherin imo. It's too close to call for the 4th.

Think Ring will just catch RCW to top it, by 500 or so votes.

I think dillion will do better than mulherin on ring transfers.

whitey1

irishgeo wrote: »

I think dillion will do better than mulherin on ring transfers.

Ring got a huge vote out of Castlebar so I would hope so

Hercule Poirot

irishgeo wrote: »

I think dillion will do better than mulherin on ring transfers.

I can see people throwing a second, third preference to Dillon just because he played for Mayo

PARlance

Too close to call for the top of the Poll. Ring by 50 or so votes... maybe

PARlance

irishgeo wrote: »

I think dillion will do better than mulherin on ring transfers.

I would say the same but he has a lot of ground to make up on Chambers.

Coillte_Bhoy

whitey1 wrote: »

Is Lisa Chambers up or down in Castlebar compared to the last time out? Surprised to see RCW beating Chambers handily on her home turf

Looks like a decent enough haul for Dillon

She's down about 1200 votes in Castlebar

PARlance

FG Tally has Ring (14,488) 101 votes ahead of RCW (14,387) to top the poll. 100% of boxes counted.

Both exceed quota.

whitey1

How do they decide which votes to distribute after a candidate reaches the quota. Is it a random sampling?

Dudda

And the tally is over.

That was a close finish. It was the third last box when Ring overtook RCW to top the poll. Never thought a spreadsheet could be so engaging for 3 hours.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CBfXja-jXqwaUfrbPLq4Y2RJiVJlid9I8JrNz45Fjek/edit?usp=drivesdk

irishgeo

Dillion chambers for the last seat. Could mulherin elimination get dillion over the line.

Whats the quota set at ?

irishgeo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Whats the quota set at ?

According to the sheet somewhere around 12700.

Hercule Poirot

Massive achievement from Rose after losing out last time